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Investment Management – a creator
   of value in an insurance company
                   Zurich Financial Services – 2011
                          Updated Second edition
Investment Management




Insurance companies generally
recognise the importance of separating
the responsibilities for managing their insurance
businesses from managing the investments backing
their reserves and capital. Due to the scale of
investments in an insurance company’s balance sheet
and the impact of investment results on its profitability,
the management of these investments is a key function in
an insurance company that can create significant value for
the company’s policyholders and shareholders. To accomplish
this value creation, Investment Management at Zurich uses
a systematic and structured investment process focusing on
the value drivers that matter most.
Contents




                                                                                                                 Page
I.	      Investment Management in an insurance company	                                                               4

II.	 Zurich’s investment philosophy	                                                                                  8

III.	 Zurich’s investment strategy	                                                                                 12

IV.	 Value creation of Investment Management at Zurich	                                                             19




      Disclaimer and cautionary statement
      Certain statements in this document are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements that are predications
      of or indicate future events, trends, plans or objectives. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding our targeted profit
      improvement, return on equity targets,expense reductions, pricing conditions, dividend policy and underwriting claims improvements,
      as well as statements regarding our understanding of general economic, financial and insurance market conditions and expected
      developments. Undue reliance should not be placed on such statements because, by their nature, they are subject to known and
      unknown risks and uncertainties and can be affected by other factors that could cause actual results and plans and objectives of Zurich
      Financial Services or the Zurich Financial Services Group (the “Group”) to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward
      looking statements (or from past results). Factors such as (i) general economic conditions and competitive factors, particularly in our key
      markets; (ii) the risk of the global economic downturn and a downturn in the financial services industries in particular (iii) performance of
      financial markets; (iv) levels of interest rates and currency exchange rates; (v) frequency, severity and development of insured claims
      events; (vi) mortality and morbidity experience; (vii) policy renewal and lapse rates; and (viii) changes in laws and regulations and in the
      policies of regulators may have a direct bearing on the results of operations of Zurich Financial Services and its Group and on whether the
      targets will be achieved. Zurich Financial Services undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking
      statements, whether to reflect new information, future events or circumstances or otherwise.

      It should be noted that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

      Persons requiring advice should consult an independent adviser.

      This communication does not constitute an offer or an invitation for the sale or purchase of securities in any jurisdiction.



                                                                                                                                                      3
I. Investment Management in an insurance company




              The recent global financial crisis highlighted the    Insurance companies have large
              importance of having a clear investment policy        investments. Insurance companies sell
              as well as a structured and disciplined               protection to their customers who pay
              investment process. It also underlined that           premiums, and hold investments to cover
              assets need to be managed in relation to              future claims or benefits, administrative
              liabilities. The success of this activity has been    expenses and profits to shareholders.
              a major differentiator across the industry.           Regulators require insurance companies to hold
                                                                    sufficient assets as reserves in every insurance
              An insurer aims to pursue investment strategies
                                                                    business. The reserves must suffice to pay out
              that focus on creating value for both
                                                                    expected claims and benefits, even in the
              policyholders and shareholders and avoiding
                                                                    unplanned case that the insurer stops writing
              excessive risk taking. In the insurance industry,
                                                                    new business. Thus, regulators ensure that
              attaining the balance of risk and return remains
                                                                    insurers do not rely on new premiums to pay
              the challenge.
                                                                    for claims and benefits underwritten in the
              No extra return without risk.                         past, thereby preventing the creation of
              Chasing after ever higher yields has its              pyramid or ponzi schemes. As insurers
              downside: risk. Capital markets will only             continuously underwrite new business, they
              provide higher expected returns when higher           generally hold significant and relatively stable
              risks are attached. Investors will therefore differ   amounts of investments as reserves on their
              in their ability and willingness to chase returns     balance sheet.
              and bear the resulting risks. When the bear
                                                                    Reserves generated by the insurance business
              market ensued in 2008, some investors were
                                                                    are invested until they are paid out. In addition,
              forced to sell their risky equity investments to
                                                                    shareholder capital needs to be held as a buffer
              mitigate the threat of insolvency, while others
                                                                    to ensure the insurer has adequate funds to pay
              with sufficient capital were able to withstand
                                                                    claims or benefits in scenarios where actual pay
              the downturn, held on and benefited when
                                                                    outs are larger than what has been reserved.
              markets recovered the following year.
                                                                    Therefore, the investments on the insurer’s
              No extra return without risk is a principle that      balance sheets cover reserves for expected
              applies to all investors. The important corollary     claims and benefits and shareholder capital that
              to this principle is that investors should have       acts as an additional buffer to meet adverse
              sufficient capital to bear the risks they take.       surprises in claims and benefits.




4
I. Investment Management in an insurance company




Insurance companies generally separate            Insurance investment risk is different from
the responsibilities of their insurance           what the typical fund manager would describe
businesses from the investment of their           as investment risk. The typical fund manager
reserves and capital (referred to as insurance    invests on behalf of its clients and is usually
investment management). The insurance             focused on maximizing the value of the
business must ensure profitable underwriting.     investments relative to a prescribed market
This means premiums received in advance fully     benchmark (eg. S&P 500).
cover future insurance losses, guaranteed
                                                  Investment risk for fund managers is both
minimum benefits (for life insurance),
                                                  absolute and relative. The absolute risk is the
administrative expenses and a profit margin.
                                                  chance the market value of the underlying
Furthermore, the insurance business must
                                                  fund will rise or fall in a particular time period.
effectively manage claims, ensuring payments
                                                  The relative risk is the chance the fund manager
reflect the actual loss to the customer and are
                                                  may out- or underperform his benchmark in a
within the terms of his policy.
                                                  particular time period. However, both measures
The role of insurance investment management       are focused on the asset side of the balance
is to manage professionally the funds             sheet only – little consideration is given to the
generated by the insurance business,              client’s liabilities. It is therefore left to the client
maximizing risk adjusted returns while meeting    (or client’s adviser) to select the investments
regulatory requirements on its assets and other   that meet the needs of his ‘liabilities’.
financial constraints. Insurance investment
                                                  Risk in insurance investment management is
management must ensure that investment
                                                  more akin to the fund manager’s risk relative
returns preserve the solvency, both regulatory
                                                  to his market benchmark, only in the case of
and economic, of the insurance company, earn
                                                  insurance, the benchmark is its liabilities.
the return commensurate with the use of its
                                                  When an insurance company determines its
capital and enable it to continue to underwrite
                                                  investment strategy and investment risk
profitable insurance business.
                                                  appetite, it cannot ignore the liability side of its
                                                  balance sheet – the reserves for future claims
                                                  and benefits and shareholder capital.




                                                                                                             5
I. Investment Management in an insurance company




                     Insurance companies have assets (investments)        The chart below illustrates the importance of
                     and liabilities (future claims and benefits) whose   Asset-Liability Management in managing an
                     values change as capital market conditions           insurer’s investments. This particular example,
                     change. The challenge for insurance investment       based on a sample of Continental European
                     management is to manage the potential                insurance companies, shows that if Group
                     mismatch in value of its assets and liabilities      investments were to underperform by little
                     and to ensure that such a mismatch will not          more than 10% the value of the insurance
                     endanger the company as a going concern.             liabilities, shareholders’ equity would be wiped
                                                                          out. This level of shareholder leverage makes
                     Insurance investment risk, therefore, is when
                                                                          ALM key in insurance investment management.
                     investments become insufficient to pay the
                     liabilities due to adverse changes in capital
                     markets. The analysis and management of                Chart 1: Simplified balance sheet of
                     these relative movements is called Asset-              a typical European insurance company
                     Liability Management (ALM).                            as of 31 December 2010 (%)

                     Asset-Liability Management is a key
                     function in insurance investment management.                                                  7

                     Insurers’ balance sheets are dominated by
                     Group investments on the asset side and
                                                                                                66
                     reserves for future claims and benefits on the                                                60

                     liability side (ignoring unit linked investments
                     which have identical offsetting liabilities).
                     Therefore, relative changes in value of                                   17                  15
                     Group investments relative to insurance
                     liabilities can have a significant impact on                               17                 17

                     shareholders’ equity.
                                                                            Source: Zurich, Allianz, Axa, Generali 2010 reports




6
I. Investment Management in an insurance company




Insurance companies are regulated
in every market where they conduct                 Accounting balance sheets
insurance business. Regulators set solvency        Insurers’ balance sheets are reported in
requirements for every local business that         line with accounting standards. Accounting
must be met at all times. The objective of         standards define how assets and liabilities
solvency requirements is to ensure that            should be valued, which is often different
insurers hold enough assets to pay out all         from the current economic or ‘market’
claims at all times. As a result, insurers must    value. In particular, liabilities are often
hold assets not just to cover the expected         shown at their nominal value instead of
claims but also unexpected, larger claims and      their current (discounted) economic value.
be able to absorb adverse results from any         Hence, balance sheets prepared under the
asset-liability mismatch. Furthermore, insurance   relevant accounting standards often do not
regulators also set requirements regarding         show the market dependency of liabilities.
the types of investments that qualify for          New regulatory initiatives (eg. Solvency II)
solvency calculations.                             will lead to measurement and reporting of
                                                   liabilities at their economic (or ‘market’)
When developing their investment strategy,         values in line with the asset values.
insurers need to be aware of the regulatory
framework they operate in. For example, some
regulators do not allow certain investments
such as commodities and hedge funds to
cover reserves. In addition, regulators often
disadvantage holding certain asset classes
by imposing significant statutory capital
requirements to hold them.




                                                                                                  7
II. Zurich’s investment philosophy




                Investment Management at Zurich has the             What investment returns and risks
                mission to achieve superior risk-adjusted           should Zurich target?
                investment returns relative to liabilities.         To answer this question, Zurich has defined
                The mission is focused on maximizing economic       its investment philosophy, which is a
                value creation for both Zurich’s policyholders      systematic, consistent and tested approach
                and shareholders.                                   to investing and relies on a broad base of
                                                                    knowledge from academia and the asset
                                                                    management industry. Having an investment
                   Chart 2:                                         philosophy that is consistently applied to all
                   Mission of Zurich                                investment activities is of great value to Zurich.
                   Investment Management
                                                                    It provides transparency to Zurich’s investment
                     Mission               Aspiration               professionals, to internal and external
                                                                    stakeholders and ensures alignment of Zurich’s
                     Achieve superior      At Zurich Investment
                     risk-adjusted         Management we            Investment Management function that is
                     investment            aspire to be the best
                     returns relative      global insurance
                                                                    spread over 40 locations around the world.
                     to liabilities.       investment manager
                                           as measured by our       As a result, Zurich possesses a clear basis
                                           customers, our
                                           shareholders and         for the development and implementation of
                                           our people.
                                                                    a single and coordinated investment strategy
                                                                    that is believed to be optimal for Zurich’s
                                                                    policyholders and shareholders.

                                                                    Zurich’s investment philosophy and the
                Economic value is created if the return on
                                                                    resulting investment strategy can be condensed
                capital required to support the insurance
                                                                    into two key principles that guide all decisions:
                investment risk is greater than the return
                on capital required by the capital markets.         1	 We aim to maximize economic objectives.

                So far, we have determined that investment          2	 We believe that capital markets generally
                management is a key function in an insurance           do work.
                company and that insurance investments have
                to be analyzed and managed relative to
                liabilities. We have also established that
                generating extra returns requires taking
                additional risks. This leads to the key question:




8
II. Zurich’s investment philosophy




1. We aim to maximize                              2. We believe that capital markets
economic objectives                                generally do work
Leading the investment organization of             Zurich’s investment philosophy is centered on
a large insurance company such as Zurich is        the key belief that capital markets generally
a highly complex business that involves many       do work (ie. are efficient). Market forces exist
stakeholders with many different interests and     to eliminate deviations from an equilibrium
opinions. Hence, defining a clear hierarchy of     (or fair value). New public information leads
targets and priorities is of high importance       to an adjustment of prices and expectations.
to guide decision making. Investment               In other words, Zurich agrees with the generally
Management at Zurich creates shareholder           accepted view of academia and practitioners
value by maximizing economic objectives.           that investors cannot consistently earn a
Specifically, this means we:                       higher return without incurring higher risk.
                                                   Consequently, we, Zurich’s Investment
•	 strive to create long-term value for Zurich’s
                                                   Management team:
   policyholders and shareholders by developing
   and implementing one investment strategy        •	 have the efficient markets principle as
   that optimizes the investment risk-return          a reference point
   profile for these stakeholders
                                                   •	 have realistic expectations of returns
•	 measure investment risks and returns
                                                   •	 have a realistic view of our skills and those
   relative to liabilities on an economic or
                                                      of our asset managers
   market value basis
                                                   •	 only take risks that are expected to provide
•	 consider regulatory restrictions and
                                                      excess returns relative to liabilities
   accounting targets as important
                                                   •	 differentiate and focus on three sources
•	 minimize short-term activism and strive for
                                                      of return
   best execution when transacting in the
   capital markets.                                   –	 Risk-free return.
                                                      –	 Market return (Beta).
                                                      –	 Skill-based return (Alpha).

                                                   •	 strive to identify inefficiencies when they do
                                                      occur and rationally act on them.




                                                                                                       9
II. Zurich’s investment philosophy




                                                                             In the long term, certain risk taking
                           There are ’good’ risks and ’bad’ risks
                                                                             provides extra returns (market return,
                           ’Good’ risks are those that reward
                                                                             also called ‘Beta’)
                           investors with higher expected return
                                                                             Certain types of investments such as equities,
                           (risk premium) for holding them. Investors
                                                                             corporate bonds and real estate provide higher
                           earn the risk premium for bearing this risk.
                                                                             expected returns (market return) compared to
                           Examples are the equity risk premium and
                                                                             the risk-free return (ie. government bonds).
                           credit spreads.
                                                                             Investors can only capture these extra returns
                           ’Bad’ risks are those for which investors
                                                                             if they:
                           receive no expected compensation from
                           markets. These risks can be diversified           •	 have a long-term strategy to take the
                           away at very little or no cost. Examples are         necessary risks;
                           holding only a few shares in an equity
                                                                             •	 understand the risks they incur; and
                           portfolio and interest rate risk.
                                                                             •	 can afford the risks they are taking at any
                                                                                time by holding sufficient capital.
                         The risk-free return is earned without
                         taking any risk                                     Otherwise, they may be forced to sell
                         Capital markets bring together investors, who       investments after significant market falls.
                         have funds they temporarily do not need and
                         consumers, companies or governments who               Bad investors do exist
                         need funds to finance consumption or business         Different investors have different
                         investment. The risk-free return is the               investment strategies. However,
                         compensation for the time value of money              systematically taking uncompensated risks
                         when investors postpone consumption by                does not create value. Zurich aims to stay
                         temporarily lending funds to someone else.            clear of the following strategies:
                         In the insurance context, the risk-free return is     •	 Holding a concentrated portfolio –
                         the yield on a government bond portfolio that            this increases risk but not necessarily
                         has the same maturity profile as the underlying          return (see ‘good’ and ’bad’ risks on
                         insurance claims or benefits that need to be             the previous page).
                         paid in the future. For example, the risk-free
                         investment for certain business lines in Zurich’s     •	 Frequent trading – trading always
                         General Insurance business is close to a three-          increases costs. These costs are certain,
                         year government bond.                                    while additional returns from higher
                                                                                  trading activity are uncertain.

                                                                               •	 Focusing only on pre-tax returns –
                                                                                  it is important to focus on the tax
                                                                                  implications of each investment as
                                                                                  some investments are not optimal
                                                                                  from a tax perspective.

                                                                               •	 Investing in instruments with complex
                                                                                  and opaque risk and return
                                                                                  characteristics, such as highly leveraged
                                                                                  structured credit products.




10
II. Zurich’s investment philosophy




Some investors can achieve extra,
                                                   Alpha – size matters!
skill-based returns (‘Alpha’) on top of the
                                                   Alpha is the part of an investor’s return
market return (’Beta’) that their strategic
                                                   that cannot be explained by the systematic,
asset allocation would provide. Given that
                                                   or Beta risks he has been taking.
capital markets generally do work (financial
                                                   Generating Alpha requires the skill to
market prices generally adjust quickly to new
                                                   identify and exploit profitable investment
information), skill-based returns are uncommon
                                                   opportunities. Investors continuously search
and unpredictable. Across all investors, they
                                                   for new opportunities, but they tend to
aggregate to zero (before cost). That is, Alpha
                                                   be short lived and limited. Large scale
is a zero sum game: for every investor who
                                                   investors face the problem that only large
earns positive Alpha there is an investor who
                                                   opportunities make a substantial difference
earns negative Alpha. The more efficient the
                                                   to the return of their portfolio. This ‘law of
market and skilful investors are, the more
                                                   diminishing returns’ explains why most
difficult it will be for an investor to earn
                                                   large institutional investors such as pension
consistently positive Alpha.
                                                   funds are more focused on generating
Skill based returns are difficult to predict       returns from Beta. While exceptions exist,
and empirical scrutiny often does not clearly      many large Alpha-oriented investors have
reveal whether success was due to skill or luck.   increasing difficulty finding profitable
In addition to these skills being rare and         opportunities that make a difference to
uncommon, they are costly. Therefore, investors    their portfolios. However, for an insurance
have to be realistic about their own skills and    company that strives to generate value for
those of their asset managers. Only a small        its shareholders, an Alpha that is small
proportion of investment returns can be            relative to its total investment portfolio
expected to be generated this way.                 can still be significant relative to its
                                                   shareholder’s equity.




                                                                                                    11
III. Zurich’s investment strategy




                 1. Investment approach                                Chart 4:
                 Investment Management develops a
                                                                       Zurich Risk Based Capital by major
                 consistent investment strategy that is
                                                                       risk type (as of 31 December 2010)
                 believed to be optimal for Zurich using a
                 three-step investment approach that follows
                 the three sources of return.


                   Chart 3: Zurich’s three-step
                   investment approach


                     Determine       Systematic     Portfolio
                     risk-free       risk taking    construction
                     investment      to enhance     to generate
                     position        returns        extra
                                                                         Investment credit risk 8%    Premium and reserving risk 23%
                                                    skill-based
                                                    returns              Market/ALM 37%               Reinsurance credit risk 4%

                                                                         Business risk 8%             Life insurance risk 1%
                         Rƒ             ß              α
                                                                         Operational risk 6%          Natural catastrophe risk 13%


                                                                       Source: Zurich Financial Services 2010 results reporting,
                                                                       Analysts and Media Presentation, February 22, 2011
                 Firstly, Investment Management
                 determines the risk-free investment
                                                                     The output of deciding which investment risks
                 position. This determines a portfolio of
                                                                     to take is Zurich’s long-term investment
                 investments that replicates Zurich’s liabilities.
                                                                     strategy (referred to as Strategic Asset
                 The risk free portfolio will see the market value
                                                                     Allocation, ‘SAA’). The SAA describes Zurich’s
                 of assets and liabilities move in tandem when
                                                                     allocation of funds to different asset classes
                 interest rates shift up and down.
                                                                     such as government bonds, corporate bonds
                 Secondly, Investment Management                     (credit), mortgages, equities, real estate, hedge
                 decides which risks to take to enhance              funds, private equity and cash.
                 returns given its risk bearing capacity.
                                                                     The Strategic Asset Allocation should be the
                 The magnitude of the total ALM investment and
                                                                     mix of asset classes that promises the highest
                 credit risks that can be taken are determined
                                                                     long-term expected investment return given
                 as part of Zurich’s capital allocation process.
                                                                     Zurich’s liabilities, regulatory framework and
                 This provides Investment Management with
                                                                     capital allocated to Market/ALM and
                 a measure of Zurich’s capacity to take ALM
                                                                     investment credit risks.
                 investment and credit risks.

                 Currently, Market/ALM risk and investment
                 credit risk consume 45% of the Group’s total
                 risk capital.




12
III. Zurich’s investment strategy




Thirdly, Investment Management defines
the portfolios in which the investments                 Chart 5:
should be managed (portfolio construction)              Economic Asset Allocation of Zurich
                                                        Financial Services as of 31 December
•	 All of Zurich’s investments are held in clearly      2010 (%) (excludes unit-linked)
   defined portfolios, which aggregate to the
   desired asset allocation. Each portfolio
   has defined investment guidelines, an
   investment manager and a benchmark
   to assess the manager’s performance.

•	 Portfolio construction starts with the
   decision whether a portfolio is better
   managed passively (tracking a benchmark
   index) or actively (portfolio manager actively
   deviates from his benchmark to outperform).

	   The decision is based on whether active                  Fixed income 84%                   Real estate 6%

    returns are likely to be found in the                    Cash, short term 5%                Hedge funds/
                                                                                                Private equity 1%
    respective market, the availability of suitable
                                                             Equities 4%
    asset managers, their expected value
                                                        Source: Zurich Financial Services 2010 results reporting,
    creation and cost.                                  Analysts and Media Presentation, February 22, 2011

Zurich’s investment portfolio if viewed
on its own (ie. without reference to the              The previous chart usually leads to the question:
liabilities) looks defensive and biased
                                                      “Why does Zurich take such low risks
towards fixed income.
                                                      in its investment portfolio by investing
                                                      predominantly in fixed income assets?”

                                                      To answer this question, we have to look at
                                                      the potential impact of movements in financial
                                                      markets on the economic valuation of the
                                                      Group’s investments and liabilities and the
                                                      resulting impact on shareholder equity.
                                                      Firstly, we need to understand the effect
                                                      diversification has on the overall risk of the
                                                      investment portfolio and secondly how the
                                                      risk changes with the inclusion of liabilities.




                                                                                                                    13
III. Zurich’s investment strategy




                                                                                                Diversification is important. In Zurich’s
                           Chart 6: Impact of diversification –
                                                                                                current investment strategy, 56% of investment
                           comparison of Zurich’s sum of
                                                                                                risks are diversified away through an efficient
                           individual undiversified single
                                                                                                asset allocation and proper diversification both
                           investment risks to diversified
                                                                                                within asset classes and between each asset
                           investment risks relative to liabilities
                                                                                                class (ie. the risk of holding many different
                           as of 31 December 2010 (%)
                                                                                                securities across a number of asset classes
                                 100                                                            is 56% below the sum of the individual
                                                                                                securities’ risks). This diversification is an
                                                                                                asset only measure and takes no consideration
                                                                                                of the liabilities.

                                                                                                Inclusion of liabilities reveals the true
                                                   44
                                                                                                picture of risk. When liabilities are added to
                                                                                                the risk calculation in the chart above, the risk
                                                                             24
                                                                                                to Zurich’s shareholder equity is reduced to
                                                                                                24% of the ’sum of undiversified single
                                                                                                investment risks‘ (ie. 20 percentage points
                                 Sum of        Investment                Investment
                            individual risks       risks                risks relative          below the diversified ’investment only’ risk view
                             in investment     (diversified)             to liabilities*
                           portfolio (before                                                    discussed above). As Chart 6 shows, three
                             diversification)
                                                                                                quarters of Zurich’s investment risks are
                                 Investment only view             Investment – liability view
                                                                                                eliminated by optimizing portfolio
                           *Risk defined as 12 month 99.95% VAR in line with Zurich RBC.        diversification relative to liabilities (as of
                           Excludes unit linked investments.
                                                                                                December 2010). This analysis underlines the
                           Source: Zurich Financial Services 2010 results reporting,
                           Analysts and Media Presentation, February 22, 2011                   well-diversified nature of Zurich’s investment
                                                                                                portfolio where assets and liabilities are
                                                                                                effectively offsetting each other.




14
III. Zurich’s investment strategy




The diversification effect in Zurich’s portfolio is           Zurich’s investment portfolio is balanced
even more powerful when risk exposures by                     in terms of investment risks taken and
type are analyzed. In the ’investment only                    spread over a number of different risk types.
view’, interest rate risk is the dominating risk              Furthermore, Zurich employs its available risk
exposure of Zurich’s investments (refer back to               capacity mostly in asset classes that
chart 5). However, the ‘investment only view’                 compensate risk taking with long term
neglects half of the balance sheet. When the                  expected returns (Beta).
risk exposure is measured on an investment
                                                              Zurich’s investment strategy explains 91% of
risks relative to liabilities basis, a large
                                                              the expected investment return. The dominant
proportion of the interest rate risk is offset.
                                                              contribution of investment strategy (asset
On this basis, the real asset exposure (equity
                                                              allocation) on expected returns is well known,
and real estate) as of December 2010 makes up
                                                              but has nevertheless the power to surprise even
40% of the total investment risk exposure,
                                                              investment professionals again and again.1
despite only making up just 10% of the asset
allocation (see chart 7 below).
                                                                  Chart 8: Zurich’s sources of expected
                                                                  investment return, (%)
  Chart 7: Breakdown of Zurich’s
  Investment Risk Exposure of                                                    92%

  diversified investments relative to                                  67                25                8             100
  liabilities’ as of 31 December 2010 (%)




                                                                    Risk-free           SAA*           TAA* and        Expected
                                                                   return (Rƒ)           (ß)            security      investment
                                                                                                      selection (α)     return
                                                                       Investment strategy

                                                                  * AA = strategic asset allocation and
                                                                   S
                                                                  TAA = tactical asset allocation

                                                                  Source: Zurich Investment Management
         Interest rate 20%                Real estate 8%

         Credit 39%                       Hedge funds 1%

         Equities 32%                                         1
                                                               Studies by Brinson et al. (1990) and Blake et al. (1999)
  Source: Zurich Financial Services 2010 results reporting,   attribute between 92% and 99% of investors’ return
  Analysts and Media Presentation, February 22, 2011          differences to their investment strategy (asset allocation).
                                                              The remainder is attributed to skill/tactical moves.




                                                                                                                                   15
III. Zurich’s investment strategy




                         Investment Management only targets Alpha                         The key to success is to have the right people:
                         where empirical evidence and academia                            it is important the people that are performing
                         suggest a high likelihood of capturing it.                       these tasks are ’experts’ in their areas.
                         Sources of expected Alpha are clearly defined
                                                                                          In comparison to asset manager selection and
                         to ensure costly talent is efficiently used.
                                                                                          tactical asset allocation, security selection and
                         Investment Management generally achieves
                                                                                          trade execution require significant infrastructure
                         skill-based returns in four areas. In each area,
                                                                                          and resources to deliver value and also have
                         a business decision is made whether this skill
                                                                                          significant operational risks. As a result Zurich
                         should be developed in house or bought from
                                                                                          engages third party asset managers to manage
                         external specialists.
                                                                                          large parts of its investment portfolio.

                           Chart 9: Zurich’s four main sources                            The following provides a more detailed overview
                           of skill-based returns                                         of each of the four primary sources of Alpha:


                                  Asset                                                   Asset manager selection
                                                            Security                      Investment Management always aims to
                                  manager
                                                            selection                     appoint the best manager for each portfolio.
                                  selection                                               It applies a stringent and fact-based manager
                                                                                          selection, evaluation and replacement process.
                                                                                          Selection criteria includes track record of
                                                                                          performance, investment philosophy and
                                                            Tactical                      process, research and trade execution
                                  Trade
                                                            asset                         capabilities, risk management, organization
                                  execution                                               and operations processes and fees.2 This skill is
                                                            allocation                    a clear differentiator relative to Zurich’s major
                                                                                          insurance peers, who tend to manage their
                           Source: Zurich Investment Management                           investments in house rather than outsourcing
                                                                                          them to the best investment managers.
                         Investment Management has built in-house
                         expertise to perform asset manager selection                     Tactical asset allocation
                         and tactical asset allocation. These two sources                 Investment Management develops tactical
                         of Alpha have high potential value added but                     asset allocation recommendations to explore
                         require relatively low infrastructure and                        and exploit temporary market opportunities.
                         resource requirements. Also, the cost of                         This function is managed in-house.
                         providing these functions in-house is lower
                         than that of outsourcing.




                         2Refer   to next section (Zurich’s make or buy strategy) for further details.
16
III. Zurich’s investment strategy




Security selection                                                    The importance of asset allocation has already
Investment Management believes security                               been highlighted in this paper. However, in an
selection can add extra returns to selected                           organization with a global footprint as wide
portfolios. Security selection requires significant                   as Zurich’s it is almost equally important to
research and it is costly. Therefore we carefully                     implement Group-wide strategies quickly and
analyze whether security selection is likely to                       effectively while taking into consideration local
add extra returns to a portfolio. In such cases                       regulatory and financial requirements. Hence,
we pay for active portfolio management.                               Zurich employs a dedicated team of regional
Otherwise, we prefer cost-efficient passive                           managers, who engage in timely and effective
(benchmark-tracking) portfolios.                                      communication with Zurich’s local investment
                                                                      offices and local insurance businesses to ensure
Trade execution                                                       agreement with and implementation of the
Trade execution is a skill and Zurich values                          investment strategy.
execution skills strongly. Transaction costs are
                                                                      In some cases, skilled investors can achieve extra
often not transparent as they include fees paid
                                                                      returns. Skills are rare and costly. Investment
plus market impact of transactions. Since
                                                                      Management strongly focuses on selecting
transaction costs are certain and returns are
                                                                      asset managers with proven track records.
not, we value asset managers who are patient
and aim to keep costs low in our internal asset                       This is particularly important given the range
management operations.                                                of asset classes and countries where Zurich
                                                                      invests. Selection criteria are equally stringent
2. Zurich’s make or buy strategy                                      for internal and external asset managers,
Zurich focuses its central Investment                                 which provides us with a clear competitive
Management team on three key value levers:                            edge relative to other insurance companies.

1	 Asset allocation.

2	 Investment implementation.

3	 Manager selection.

   Chart 10: Overview of Zurich’s make-or-buy strategy by asset class
  Ability to outperform
  benchmark                                                                          Fully/mostly outsourced


          Asset classes               Advantages of             Asset classes                    Zurich builds central
          • Special equity            outsourcing for Zurich    • Priv equity/venture            expertise and builds
            mandates                  • Access to best talent     capital, hedge funds           selectively country-
          • (e.g., small cap,           and research            • Direct real estate             specific solutions
            tax-driven)               • Flexibility to move     • Mortgages                      dependent on local
          • Credit                      between asset classes                                    market conditions and
                                      • Own teams would         Key success                      competitive advantages
          Key success                   often be sub-scale      factors:
          factors:                                              • Investment and
          • Research skill                                        transaction skill and
                                                                  risk management

          Asset classes               Advantages of
          • Fixed income              outsourcing for Zurich
          • Index-tracking            • Even own Zurich teams
            equities                    would be sub-scale
                                      • Avoidance of
          Key success                   operational risks at
          factors:                      low cost
          • Scale
          • Operational risk
            management
                                                                                                                          Cost of
                                                                                                                          managing
                                Low                                                       High                            assets

   Source: Zurich Investment Management




                                                                                                                                     17
III. Zurich’s investment strategy




                                  Zurich engages outside portfolio managers               •	 Employing external asset managers allows an
                                  (security selection and trade execution) for               easy exit from underperforming managers.
                                  currently around 70% of its investments:
                                                                                          •	 Zurich’s internal organization focuses on
                                  •	 This gives Zurich access to the world’s best            key return levers: Achieving risk-free return
                                     asset managers, often specialists in niche              and market return (Beta), which generally
                                     areas (eg. specialist equity or private                 explains over 90% of investment returns.
                                     placement mandates).
                                                                                          3. Organizational structure
                                  •	 For regulatory reasons, investments have
                                                                                          The structure of Zurich’s Investment
                                     to be held locally in Zurich’s over 40
                                                                                          Management function is fully aligned with
                                     businesses. We believe in minimum efficient
                                                                                          its strategy. Zurich’s central Investment
                                     scale for asset managers and avoid
                                                                                          Management team has four key functions.
                                     employing sub-scale investment teams.
                                                                                          This structure ensures that the Group wide
                                  •	 Cost of third party portfolio management
                                                                                          investment strategy is developed in a consistent
                                     is highly competitive and sometimes
                                                                                          manner and that the strategy is implemented
                                     lower than in-house management while
                                                                                          efficiently, considering local regulation and
                                     operational risks are significantly minimized.
                                                                                          governance frameworks.
                                     In addition trade execution is enhanced
                                     through scale of selected asset managers.


       Chart 11: Structure of Zurich’s Investment Management function

                                                               Cecilia Reyes
                                                       (Group Chief Investment Officer)




           Urban Angehrn                      Peter Teuscher                    Bernard Joei                      Michael Vos
            (Head of Strategy                 (Head of Strategy                    (Head of                  (Chief Operating Officer)
             Implementation)                    and Markets)               Alternative Investments)

       •	 Regional Investment             •	 Strategic Asset             •	 Alternative Asset              •	 Finance, including
          Management                         Allocation                     Management                         performance analysis and
       •	 Manager and                     •	 Market strategies           •	 Global Real Estate                 reporting and accounting
          fund selection                     and tactical                                                  •	 Business Strategy
       •	 Financial Engineering              asset allocation                                                  and Development
                                          •	 Investment                                                    •	 Audit, compliance,
                                             information solutions                                             governance and
                                                                                                               operational risk
          Chief Investment                                                        Heads of                     management
              Officers                                                           Real Estate               •	 HR strategy and process




                                         Global Organization


                                         Central Organization                                                         Source:
                                                                                                                      Zurich Investment
                                                                                                                      Management




18
IV. Value creation of Investment Management at Zurich




           The World’s financial markets can be risky,         Investment Management focuses on
           but also rewarding for the good investor. Over      generating superior risk-adjusted returns
           the past decade financial markets have rapidly      based on the Group’s selected investment risk
           increased in speed and complexity. The              level. In optimizing returns, Investment
           professionalism of market participants appears      Management separately targets three sources
           to increase by the day and interdependencies        of return. The risk free return is the predominant
           between different markets and participants          driver of return, followed by the market risk
           have reached unprecedented levels. The              premium (Beta) and skill-based returns (Alpha).
           financial crisis which began in 2007 has shown
                                                               Investment Management focuses its
           the importance of having clear and structured
                                                               internal effort on the key levers for
           investment policies and strategies in place.
                                                               economic value creation:
           On the backdrop of these developments
                                                               •	 Investment strategy and actively managing
           investors must ensure they follow a clear and
                                                                  the risks associated with the strategy.
           proven investment strategy to avoid drifting into
           random speculation or being lured into promises     •	 Effective and timely local implementation
           of higher yields without understanding the risks.      of the Group investment strategy.
           A systematic and consistent approach has
                                                               •	 Systematic selection, evaluation and
           proven to be superior to ‘headline’ making
                                                                  replacement of internal and external
           deals and short term activism.
                                                                  asset managers.
           Investment Management at Zurich applies
                                                               The aspiration for Investment Management
           such a clear and consistent strategy
                                                               at Zurich is crystal clear – to be the best global
           focusing its organization on economic
                                                               insurance investment manager as measured by
           value creation for Zurich. To maximize
                                                               our customers, our shareholders and our
           economic value creation for Zurich, Investment
                                                               people. The challenge for the team in achieving
           Management manages investment risks relative
                                                               this aspiration is to explore and exploit
           to insurance liabilities and takes into account
                                                               continuously new opportunities and improve
           existing leverage of the investment portfolio
                                                               its investment and business strategy. Without
           versus shareholders’ equity.
                                                               continuous enhancement through innovation,
           Investment Management applies a                     no strategy can be successful over the long-
           systematic, tested and widely accepted              term to generate economic value to Zurich’s
           investment philosophy based on the belief           policyholders and shareholders.
           that markets generally do work.




                                                                                                                    19
Zurich Investment Management
                        Mythenquai 2
124622A07 (04/11) ZCA




                        8022 Zurich
                        Switzerland
                        Telephone:	 +41 44 625 39 62
                        Fax:	       +41 44 625 19 62
                        www.zurich.com

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Investment Management – a creator of value in an insurance company

  • 1. Investment Management – a creator of value in an insurance company Zurich Financial Services – 2011 Updated Second edition
  • 2. Investment Management Insurance companies generally recognise the importance of separating the responsibilities for managing their insurance businesses from managing the investments backing their reserves and capital. Due to the scale of investments in an insurance company’s balance sheet and the impact of investment results on its profitability, the management of these investments is a key function in an insurance company that can create significant value for the company’s policyholders and shareholders. To accomplish this value creation, Investment Management at Zurich uses a systematic and structured investment process focusing on the value drivers that matter most.
  • 3. Contents Page I. Investment Management in an insurance company 4 II. Zurich’s investment philosophy 8 III. Zurich’s investment strategy 12 IV. Value creation of Investment Management at Zurich 19 Disclaimer and cautionary statement Certain statements in this document are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements that are predications of or indicate future events, trends, plans or objectives. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding our targeted profit improvement, return on equity targets,expense reductions, pricing conditions, dividend policy and underwriting claims improvements, as well as statements regarding our understanding of general economic, financial and insurance market conditions and expected developments. Undue reliance should not be placed on such statements because, by their nature, they are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and can be affected by other factors that could cause actual results and plans and objectives of Zurich Financial Services or the Zurich Financial Services Group (the “Group”) to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements (or from past results). Factors such as (i) general economic conditions and competitive factors, particularly in our key markets; (ii) the risk of the global economic downturn and a downturn in the financial services industries in particular (iii) performance of financial markets; (iv) levels of interest rates and currency exchange rates; (v) frequency, severity and development of insured claims events; (vi) mortality and morbidity experience; (vii) policy renewal and lapse rates; and (viii) changes in laws and regulations and in the policies of regulators may have a direct bearing on the results of operations of Zurich Financial Services and its Group and on whether the targets will be achieved. Zurich Financial Services undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information, future events or circumstances or otherwise. It should be noted that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Persons requiring advice should consult an independent adviser. This communication does not constitute an offer or an invitation for the sale or purchase of securities in any jurisdiction. 3
  • 4. I. Investment Management in an insurance company The recent global financial crisis highlighted the Insurance companies have large importance of having a clear investment policy investments. Insurance companies sell as well as a structured and disciplined protection to their customers who pay investment process. It also underlined that premiums, and hold investments to cover assets need to be managed in relation to future claims or benefits, administrative liabilities. The success of this activity has been expenses and profits to shareholders. a major differentiator across the industry. Regulators require insurance companies to hold sufficient assets as reserves in every insurance An insurer aims to pursue investment strategies business. The reserves must suffice to pay out that focus on creating value for both expected claims and benefits, even in the policyholders and shareholders and avoiding unplanned case that the insurer stops writing excessive risk taking. In the insurance industry, new business. Thus, regulators ensure that attaining the balance of risk and return remains insurers do not rely on new premiums to pay the challenge. for claims and benefits underwritten in the No extra return without risk. past, thereby preventing the creation of Chasing after ever higher yields has its pyramid or ponzi schemes. As insurers downside: risk. Capital markets will only continuously underwrite new business, they provide higher expected returns when higher generally hold significant and relatively stable risks are attached. Investors will therefore differ amounts of investments as reserves on their in their ability and willingness to chase returns balance sheet. and bear the resulting risks. When the bear Reserves generated by the insurance business market ensued in 2008, some investors were are invested until they are paid out. In addition, forced to sell their risky equity investments to shareholder capital needs to be held as a buffer mitigate the threat of insolvency, while others to ensure the insurer has adequate funds to pay with sufficient capital were able to withstand claims or benefits in scenarios where actual pay the downturn, held on and benefited when outs are larger than what has been reserved. markets recovered the following year. Therefore, the investments on the insurer’s No extra return without risk is a principle that balance sheets cover reserves for expected applies to all investors. The important corollary claims and benefits and shareholder capital that to this principle is that investors should have acts as an additional buffer to meet adverse sufficient capital to bear the risks they take. surprises in claims and benefits. 4
  • 5. I. Investment Management in an insurance company Insurance companies generally separate Insurance investment risk is different from the responsibilities of their insurance what the typical fund manager would describe businesses from the investment of their as investment risk. The typical fund manager reserves and capital (referred to as insurance invests on behalf of its clients and is usually investment management). The insurance focused on maximizing the value of the business must ensure profitable underwriting. investments relative to a prescribed market This means premiums received in advance fully benchmark (eg. S&P 500). cover future insurance losses, guaranteed Investment risk for fund managers is both minimum benefits (for life insurance), absolute and relative. The absolute risk is the administrative expenses and a profit margin. chance the market value of the underlying Furthermore, the insurance business must fund will rise or fall in a particular time period. effectively manage claims, ensuring payments The relative risk is the chance the fund manager reflect the actual loss to the customer and are may out- or underperform his benchmark in a within the terms of his policy. particular time period. However, both measures The role of insurance investment management are focused on the asset side of the balance is to manage professionally the funds sheet only – little consideration is given to the generated by the insurance business, client’s liabilities. It is therefore left to the client maximizing risk adjusted returns while meeting (or client’s adviser) to select the investments regulatory requirements on its assets and other that meet the needs of his ‘liabilities’. financial constraints. Insurance investment Risk in insurance investment management is management must ensure that investment more akin to the fund manager’s risk relative returns preserve the solvency, both regulatory to his market benchmark, only in the case of and economic, of the insurance company, earn insurance, the benchmark is its liabilities. the return commensurate with the use of its When an insurance company determines its capital and enable it to continue to underwrite investment strategy and investment risk profitable insurance business. appetite, it cannot ignore the liability side of its balance sheet – the reserves for future claims and benefits and shareholder capital. 5
  • 6. I. Investment Management in an insurance company Insurance companies have assets (investments) The chart below illustrates the importance of and liabilities (future claims and benefits) whose Asset-Liability Management in managing an values change as capital market conditions insurer’s investments. This particular example, change. The challenge for insurance investment based on a sample of Continental European management is to manage the potential insurance companies, shows that if Group mismatch in value of its assets and liabilities investments were to underperform by little and to ensure that such a mismatch will not more than 10% the value of the insurance endanger the company as a going concern. liabilities, shareholders’ equity would be wiped out. This level of shareholder leverage makes Insurance investment risk, therefore, is when ALM key in insurance investment management. investments become insufficient to pay the liabilities due to adverse changes in capital markets. The analysis and management of Chart 1: Simplified balance sheet of these relative movements is called Asset- a typical European insurance company Liability Management (ALM). as of 31 December 2010 (%) Asset-Liability Management is a key function in insurance investment management. 7 Insurers’ balance sheets are dominated by Group investments on the asset side and 66 reserves for future claims and benefits on the 60 liability side (ignoring unit linked investments which have identical offsetting liabilities). Therefore, relative changes in value of 17 15 Group investments relative to insurance liabilities can have a significant impact on 17 17 shareholders’ equity. Source: Zurich, Allianz, Axa, Generali 2010 reports 6
  • 7. I. Investment Management in an insurance company Insurance companies are regulated in every market where they conduct Accounting balance sheets insurance business. Regulators set solvency Insurers’ balance sheets are reported in requirements for every local business that line with accounting standards. Accounting must be met at all times. The objective of standards define how assets and liabilities solvency requirements is to ensure that should be valued, which is often different insurers hold enough assets to pay out all from the current economic or ‘market’ claims at all times. As a result, insurers must value. In particular, liabilities are often hold assets not just to cover the expected shown at their nominal value instead of claims but also unexpected, larger claims and their current (discounted) economic value. be able to absorb adverse results from any Hence, balance sheets prepared under the asset-liability mismatch. Furthermore, insurance relevant accounting standards often do not regulators also set requirements regarding show the market dependency of liabilities. the types of investments that qualify for New regulatory initiatives (eg. Solvency II) solvency calculations. will lead to measurement and reporting of liabilities at their economic (or ‘market’) When developing their investment strategy, values in line with the asset values. insurers need to be aware of the regulatory framework they operate in. For example, some regulators do not allow certain investments such as commodities and hedge funds to cover reserves. In addition, regulators often disadvantage holding certain asset classes by imposing significant statutory capital requirements to hold them. 7
  • 8. II. Zurich’s investment philosophy Investment Management at Zurich has the What investment returns and risks mission to achieve superior risk-adjusted should Zurich target? investment returns relative to liabilities. To answer this question, Zurich has defined The mission is focused on maximizing economic its investment philosophy, which is a value creation for both Zurich’s policyholders systematic, consistent and tested approach and shareholders. to investing and relies on a broad base of knowledge from academia and the asset management industry. Having an investment Chart 2: philosophy that is consistently applied to all Mission of Zurich investment activities is of great value to Zurich. Investment Management It provides transparency to Zurich’s investment Mission Aspiration professionals, to internal and external stakeholders and ensures alignment of Zurich’s Achieve superior At Zurich Investment risk-adjusted Management we Investment Management function that is investment aspire to be the best returns relative global insurance spread over 40 locations around the world. to liabilities. investment manager as measured by our As a result, Zurich possesses a clear basis customers, our shareholders and for the development and implementation of our people. a single and coordinated investment strategy that is believed to be optimal for Zurich’s policyholders and shareholders. Zurich’s investment philosophy and the Economic value is created if the return on resulting investment strategy can be condensed capital required to support the insurance into two key principles that guide all decisions: investment risk is greater than the return on capital required by the capital markets. 1 We aim to maximize economic objectives. So far, we have determined that investment 2 We believe that capital markets generally management is a key function in an insurance do work. company and that insurance investments have to be analyzed and managed relative to liabilities. We have also established that generating extra returns requires taking additional risks. This leads to the key question: 8
  • 9. II. Zurich’s investment philosophy 1. We aim to maximize 2. We believe that capital markets economic objectives generally do work Leading the investment organization of Zurich’s investment philosophy is centered on a large insurance company such as Zurich is the key belief that capital markets generally a highly complex business that involves many do work (ie. are efficient). Market forces exist stakeholders with many different interests and to eliminate deviations from an equilibrium opinions. Hence, defining a clear hierarchy of (or fair value). New public information leads targets and priorities is of high importance to an adjustment of prices and expectations. to guide decision making. Investment In other words, Zurich agrees with the generally Management at Zurich creates shareholder accepted view of academia and practitioners value by maximizing economic objectives. that investors cannot consistently earn a Specifically, this means we: higher return without incurring higher risk. Consequently, we, Zurich’s Investment • strive to create long-term value for Zurich’s Management team: policyholders and shareholders by developing and implementing one investment strategy • have the efficient markets principle as that optimizes the investment risk-return a reference point profile for these stakeholders • have realistic expectations of returns • measure investment risks and returns • have a realistic view of our skills and those relative to liabilities on an economic or of our asset managers market value basis • only take risks that are expected to provide • consider regulatory restrictions and excess returns relative to liabilities accounting targets as important • differentiate and focus on three sources • minimize short-term activism and strive for of return best execution when transacting in the capital markets. – Risk-free return. – Market return (Beta). – Skill-based return (Alpha). • strive to identify inefficiencies when they do occur and rationally act on them. 9
  • 10. II. Zurich’s investment philosophy In the long term, certain risk taking There are ’good’ risks and ’bad’ risks provides extra returns (market return, ’Good’ risks are those that reward also called ‘Beta’) investors with higher expected return Certain types of investments such as equities, (risk premium) for holding them. Investors corporate bonds and real estate provide higher earn the risk premium for bearing this risk. expected returns (market return) compared to Examples are the equity risk premium and the risk-free return (ie. government bonds). credit spreads. Investors can only capture these extra returns ’Bad’ risks are those for which investors if they: receive no expected compensation from markets. These risks can be diversified • have a long-term strategy to take the away at very little or no cost. Examples are necessary risks; holding only a few shares in an equity • understand the risks they incur; and portfolio and interest rate risk. • can afford the risks they are taking at any time by holding sufficient capital. The risk-free return is earned without taking any risk Otherwise, they may be forced to sell Capital markets bring together investors, who investments after significant market falls. have funds they temporarily do not need and consumers, companies or governments who Bad investors do exist need funds to finance consumption or business Different investors have different investment. The risk-free return is the investment strategies. However, compensation for the time value of money systematically taking uncompensated risks when investors postpone consumption by does not create value. Zurich aims to stay temporarily lending funds to someone else. clear of the following strategies: In the insurance context, the risk-free return is • Holding a concentrated portfolio – the yield on a government bond portfolio that this increases risk but not necessarily has the same maturity profile as the underlying return (see ‘good’ and ’bad’ risks on insurance claims or benefits that need to be the previous page). paid in the future. For example, the risk-free investment for certain business lines in Zurich’s • Frequent trading – trading always General Insurance business is close to a three- increases costs. These costs are certain, year government bond. while additional returns from higher trading activity are uncertain. • Focusing only on pre-tax returns – it is important to focus on the tax implications of each investment as some investments are not optimal from a tax perspective. • Investing in instruments with complex and opaque risk and return characteristics, such as highly leveraged structured credit products. 10
  • 11. II. Zurich’s investment philosophy Some investors can achieve extra, Alpha – size matters! skill-based returns (‘Alpha’) on top of the Alpha is the part of an investor’s return market return (’Beta’) that their strategic that cannot be explained by the systematic, asset allocation would provide. Given that or Beta risks he has been taking. capital markets generally do work (financial Generating Alpha requires the skill to market prices generally adjust quickly to new identify and exploit profitable investment information), skill-based returns are uncommon opportunities. Investors continuously search and unpredictable. Across all investors, they for new opportunities, but they tend to aggregate to zero (before cost). That is, Alpha be short lived and limited. Large scale is a zero sum game: for every investor who investors face the problem that only large earns positive Alpha there is an investor who opportunities make a substantial difference earns negative Alpha. The more efficient the to the return of their portfolio. This ‘law of market and skilful investors are, the more diminishing returns’ explains why most difficult it will be for an investor to earn large institutional investors such as pension consistently positive Alpha. funds are more focused on generating Skill based returns are difficult to predict returns from Beta. While exceptions exist, and empirical scrutiny often does not clearly many large Alpha-oriented investors have reveal whether success was due to skill or luck. increasing difficulty finding profitable In addition to these skills being rare and opportunities that make a difference to uncommon, they are costly. Therefore, investors their portfolios. However, for an insurance have to be realistic about their own skills and company that strives to generate value for those of their asset managers. Only a small its shareholders, an Alpha that is small proportion of investment returns can be relative to its total investment portfolio expected to be generated this way. can still be significant relative to its shareholder’s equity. 11
  • 12. III. Zurich’s investment strategy 1. Investment approach Chart 4: Investment Management develops a Zurich Risk Based Capital by major consistent investment strategy that is risk type (as of 31 December 2010) believed to be optimal for Zurich using a three-step investment approach that follows the three sources of return. Chart 3: Zurich’s three-step investment approach Determine Systematic Portfolio risk-free risk taking construction investment to enhance to generate position returns extra Investment credit risk 8% Premium and reserving risk 23% skill-based returns Market/ALM 37% Reinsurance credit risk 4% Business risk 8% Life insurance risk 1% Rƒ ß α Operational risk 6% Natural catastrophe risk 13% Source: Zurich Financial Services 2010 results reporting, Analysts and Media Presentation, February 22, 2011 Firstly, Investment Management determines the risk-free investment The output of deciding which investment risks position. This determines a portfolio of to take is Zurich’s long-term investment investments that replicates Zurich’s liabilities. strategy (referred to as Strategic Asset The risk free portfolio will see the market value Allocation, ‘SAA’). The SAA describes Zurich’s of assets and liabilities move in tandem when allocation of funds to different asset classes interest rates shift up and down. such as government bonds, corporate bonds Secondly, Investment Management (credit), mortgages, equities, real estate, hedge decides which risks to take to enhance funds, private equity and cash. returns given its risk bearing capacity. The Strategic Asset Allocation should be the The magnitude of the total ALM investment and mix of asset classes that promises the highest credit risks that can be taken are determined long-term expected investment return given as part of Zurich’s capital allocation process. Zurich’s liabilities, regulatory framework and This provides Investment Management with capital allocated to Market/ALM and a measure of Zurich’s capacity to take ALM investment credit risks. investment and credit risks. Currently, Market/ALM risk and investment credit risk consume 45% of the Group’s total risk capital. 12
  • 13. III. Zurich’s investment strategy Thirdly, Investment Management defines the portfolios in which the investments Chart 5: should be managed (portfolio construction) Economic Asset Allocation of Zurich Financial Services as of 31 December • All of Zurich’s investments are held in clearly 2010 (%) (excludes unit-linked) defined portfolios, which aggregate to the desired asset allocation. Each portfolio has defined investment guidelines, an investment manager and a benchmark to assess the manager’s performance. • Portfolio construction starts with the decision whether a portfolio is better managed passively (tracking a benchmark index) or actively (portfolio manager actively deviates from his benchmark to outperform). The decision is based on whether active Fixed income 84% Real estate 6% returns are likely to be found in the Cash, short term 5% Hedge funds/ Private equity 1% respective market, the availability of suitable Equities 4% asset managers, their expected value Source: Zurich Financial Services 2010 results reporting, creation and cost. Analysts and Media Presentation, February 22, 2011 Zurich’s investment portfolio if viewed on its own (ie. without reference to the The previous chart usually leads to the question: liabilities) looks defensive and biased “Why does Zurich take such low risks towards fixed income. in its investment portfolio by investing predominantly in fixed income assets?” To answer this question, we have to look at the potential impact of movements in financial markets on the economic valuation of the Group’s investments and liabilities and the resulting impact on shareholder equity. Firstly, we need to understand the effect diversification has on the overall risk of the investment portfolio and secondly how the risk changes with the inclusion of liabilities. 13
  • 14. III. Zurich’s investment strategy Diversification is important. In Zurich’s Chart 6: Impact of diversification – current investment strategy, 56% of investment comparison of Zurich’s sum of risks are diversified away through an efficient individual undiversified single asset allocation and proper diversification both investment risks to diversified within asset classes and between each asset investment risks relative to liabilities class (ie. the risk of holding many different as of 31 December 2010 (%) securities across a number of asset classes 100 is 56% below the sum of the individual securities’ risks). This diversification is an asset only measure and takes no consideration of the liabilities. Inclusion of liabilities reveals the true 44 picture of risk. When liabilities are added to the risk calculation in the chart above, the risk 24 to Zurich’s shareholder equity is reduced to 24% of the ’sum of undiversified single investment risks‘ (ie. 20 percentage points Sum of Investment Investment individual risks risks risks relative below the diversified ’investment only’ risk view in investment (diversified) to liabilities* portfolio (before discussed above). As Chart 6 shows, three diversification) quarters of Zurich’s investment risks are Investment only view Investment – liability view eliminated by optimizing portfolio *Risk defined as 12 month 99.95% VAR in line with Zurich RBC. diversification relative to liabilities (as of Excludes unit linked investments. December 2010). This analysis underlines the Source: Zurich Financial Services 2010 results reporting, Analysts and Media Presentation, February 22, 2011 well-diversified nature of Zurich’s investment portfolio where assets and liabilities are effectively offsetting each other. 14
  • 15. III. Zurich’s investment strategy The diversification effect in Zurich’s portfolio is Zurich’s investment portfolio is balanced even more powerful when risk exposures by in terms of investment risks taken and type are analyzed. In the ’investment only spread over a number of different risk types. view’, interest rate risk is the dominating risk Furthermore, Zurich employs its available risk exposure of Zurich’s investments (refer back to capacity mostly in asset classes that chart 5). However, the ‘investment only view’ compensate risk taking with long term neglects half of the balance sheet. When the expected returns (Beta). risk exposure is measured on an investment Zurich’s investment strategy explains 91% of risks relative to liabilities basis, a large the expected investment return. The dominant proportion of the interest rate risk is offset. contribution of investment strategy (asset On this basis, the real asset exposure (equity allocation) on expected returns is well known, and real estate) as of December 2010 makes up but has nevertheless the power to surprise even 40% of the total investment risk exposure, investment professionals again and again.1 despite only making up just 10% of the asset allocation (see chart 7 below). Chart 8: Zurich’s sources of expected investment return, (%) Chart 7: Breakdown of Zurich’s Investment Risk Exposure of 92% diversified investments relative to 67 25 8 100 liabilities’ as of 31 December 2010 (%) Risk-free SAA* TAA* and Expected return (Rƒ) (ß) security investment selection (α) return Investment strategy * AA = strategic asset allocation and S TAA = tactical asset allocation Source: Zurich Investment Management Interest rate 20% Real estate 8% Credit 39% Hedge funds 1% Equities 32% 1 Studies by Brinson et al. (1990) and Blake et al. (1999) Source: Zurich Financial Services 2010 results reporting, attribute between 92% and 99% of investors’ return Analysts and Media Presentation, February 22, 2011 differences to their investment strategy (asset allocation). The remainder is attributed to skill/tactical moves. 15
  • 16. III. Zurich’s investment strategy Investment Management only targets Alpha The key to success is to have the right people: where empirical evidence and academia it is important the people that are performing suggest a high likelihood of capturing it. these tasks are ’experts’ in their areas. Sources of expected Alpha are clearly defined In comparison to asset manager selection and to ensure costly talent is efficiently used. tactical asset allocation, security selection and Investment Management generally achieves trade execution require significant infrastructure skill-based returns in four areas. In each area, and resources to deliver value and also have a business decision is made whether this skill significant operational risks. As a result Zurich should be developed in house or bought from engages third party asset managers to manage external specialists. large parts of its investment portfolio. Chart 9: Zurich’s four main sources The following provides a more detailed overview of skill-based returns of each of the four primary sources of Alpha: Asset Asset manager selection Security Investment Management always aims to manager selection appoint the best manager for each portfolio. selection It applies a stringent and fact-based manager selection, evaluation and replacement process. Selection criteria includes track record of performance, investment philosophy and Tactical process, research and trade execution Trade asset capabilities, risk management, organization execution and operations processes and fees.2 This skill is allocation a clear differentiator relative to Zurich’s major insurance peers, who tend to manage their Source: Zurich Investment Management investments in house rather than outsourcing them to the best investment managers. Investment Management has built in-house expertise to perform asset manager selection Tactical asset allocation and tactical asset allocation. These two sources Investment Management develops tactical of Alpha have high potential value added but asset allocation recommendations to explore require relatively low infrastructure and and exploit temporary market opportunities. resource requirements. Also, the cost of This function is managed in-house. providing these functions in-house is lower than that of outsourcing. 2Refer to next section (Zurich’s make or buy strategy) for further details. 16
  • 17. III. Zurich’s investment strategy Security selection The importance of asset allocation has already Investment Management believes security been highlighted in this paper. However, in an selection can add extra returns to selected organization with a global footprint as wide portfolios. Security selection requires significant as Zurich’s it is almost equally important to research and it is costly. Therefore we carefully implement Group-wide strategies quickly and analyze whether security selection is likely to effectively while taking into consideration local add extra returns to a portfolio. In such cases regulatory and financial requirements. Hence, we pay for active portfolio management. Zurich employs a dedicated team of regional Otherwise, we prefer cost-efficient passive managers, who engage in timely and effective (benchmark-tracking) portfolios. communication with Zurich’s local investment offices and local insurance businesses to ensure Trade execution agreement with and implementation of the Trade execution is a skill and Zurich values investment strategy. execution skills strongly. Transaction costs are In some cases, skilled investors can achieve extra often not transparent as they include fees paid returns. Skills are rare and costly. Investment plus market impact of transactions. Since Management strongly focuses on selecting transaction costs are certain and returns are asset managers with proven track records. not, we value asset managers who are patient and aim to keep costs low in our internal asset This is particularly important given the range management operations. of asset classes and countries where Zurich invests. Selection criteria are equally stringent 2. Zurich’s make or buy strategy for internal and external asset managers, Zurich focuses its central Investment which provides us with a clear competitive Management team on three key value levers: edge relative to other insurance companies. 1 Asset allocation. 2 Investment implementation. 3 Manager selection. Chart 10: Overview of Zurich’s make-or-buy strategy by asset class Ability to outperform benchmark Fully/mostly outsourced Asset classes Advantages of Asset classes Zurich builds central • Special equity outsourcing for Zurich • Priv equity/venture expertise and builds mandates • Access to best talent capital, hedge funds selectively country- • (e.g., small cap, and research • Direct real estate specific solutions tax-driven) • Flexibility to move • Mortgages dependent on local • Credit between asset classes market conditions and • Own teams would Key success competitive advantages Key success often be sub-scale factors: factors: • Investment and • Research skill transaction skill and risk management Asset classes Advantages of • Fixed income outsourcing for Zurich • Index-tracking • Even own Zurich teams equities would be sub-scale • Avoidance of Key success operational risks at factors: low cost • Scale • Operational risk management Cost of managing Low High assets Source: Zurich Investment Management 17
  • 18. III. Zurich’s investment strategy Zurich engages outside portfolio managers • Employing external asset managers allows an (security selection and trade execution) for easy exit from underperforming managers. currently around 70% of its investments: • Zurich’s internal organization focuses on • This gives Zurich access to the world’s best key return levers: Achieving risk-free return asset managers, often specialists in niche and market return (Beta), which generally areas (eg. specialist equity or private explains over 90% of investment returns. placement mandates). 3. Organizational structure • For regulatory reasons, investments have The structure of Zurich’s Investment to be held locally in Zurich’s over 40 Management function is fully aligned with businesses. We believe in minimum efficient its strategy. Zurich’s central Investment scale for asset managers and avoid Management team has four key functions. employing sub-scale investment teams. This structure ensures that the Group wide • Cost of third party portfolio management investment strategy is developed in a consistent is highly competitive and sometimes manner and that the strategy is implemented lower than in-house management while efficiently, considering local regulation and operational risks are significantly minimized. governance frameworks. In addition trade execution is enhanced through scale of selected asset managers. Chart 11: Structure of Zurich’s Investment Management function Cecilia Reyes (Group Chief Investment Officer) Urban Angehrn Peter Teuscher Bernard Joei Michael Vos (Head of Strategy (Head of Strategy (Head of (Chief Operating Officer) Implementation) and Markets) Alternative Investments) • Regional Investment • Strategic Asset • Alternative Asset • Finance, including Management Allocation Management performance analysis and • Manager and • Market strategies • Global Real Estate reporting and accounting fund selection and tactical • Business Strategy • Financial Engineering asset allocation and Development • Investment • Audit, compliance, information solutions governance and operational risk Chief Investment Heads of management Officers Real Estate • HR strategy and process Global Organization Central Organization Source: Zurich Investment Management 18
  • 19. IV. Value creation of Investment Management at Zurich The World’s financial markets can be risky, Investment Management focuses on but also rewarding for the good investor. Over generating superior risk-adjusted returns the past decade financial markets have rapidly based on the Group’s selected investment risk increased in speed and complexity. The level. In optimizing returns, Investment professionalism of market participants appears Management separately targets three sources to increase by the day and interdependencies of return. The risk free return is the predominant between different markets and participants driver of return, followed by the market risk have reached unprecedented levels. The premium (Beta) and skill-based returns (Alpha). financial crisis which began in 2007 has shown Investment Management focuses its the importance of having clear and structured internal effort on the key levers for investment policies and strategies in place. economic value creation: On the backdrop of these developments • Investment strategy and actively managing investors must ensure they follow a clear and the risks associated with the strategy. proven investment strategy to avoid drifting into random speculation or being lured into promises • Effective and timely local implementation of higher yields without understanding the risks. of the Group investment strategy. A systematic and consistent approach has • Systematic selection, evaluation and proven to be superior to ‘headline’ making replacement of internal and external deals and short term activism. asset managers. Investment Management at Zurich applies The aspiration for Investment Management such a clear and consistent strategy at Zurich is crystal clear – to be the best global focusing its organization on economic insurance investment manager as measured by value creation for Zurich. To maximize our customers, our shareholders and our economic value creation for Zurich, Investment people. The challenge for the team in achieving Management manages investment risks relative this aspiration is to explore and exploit to insurance liabilities and takes into account continuously new opportunities and improve existing leverage of the investment portfolio its investment and business strategy. Without versus shareholders’ equity. continuous enhancement through innovation, Investment Management applies a no strategy can be successful over the long- systematic, tested and widely accepted term to generate economic value to Zurich’s investment philosophy based on the belief policyholders and shareholders. that markets generally do work. 19
  • 20. Zurich Investment Management Mythenquai 2 124622A07 (04/11) ZCA 8022 Zurich Switzerland Telephone: +41 44 625 39 62 Fax: +41 44 625 19 62 www.zurich.com