Paper published at the Journal of Pipeline Engineering: A practical approcah to pipeline corrosion modelling: Part2 - Short-term integrity forecasting

1. 1st Quarter, 2009 19
A practical approach in pipeline
corrosion modelling: Part 1 –
Long-term integrity forecasting
by Dr Érika S M Nicoletti* and Ricardo Dias de Souza
Petrobras Transporte SA, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
N OWADAYS, MANY MAJOR MARKETS worldwide depend upon an increasingly-ageing pipeline
infrastructure to supply most energy demands. As corrosion damage accumulation is usually
expected under typical pipeline service conditions, forecast metal-loss growth over time is a key element
in their integrity management; but there is little industrial guidance on this issue. The current work has been
undertaken aiming to provide a corrosion rate model by means of straightforward stochastic treatment
of metal-loss ILI data. This first part will present a model framework regarding long-term scenarios and
remaining-life predictions, based on a cost-effective pecuniary threshold for the system’s future remedial
actions. The concept of local activity breaks new ground by merging two traditional approaches: the
individual defect and the pipeline segment corrosion growth rates. The model’s underlying assumptions are
detailed, together with its mathematical framework; an empirical balance has been established between
over- and under-conservative premises, and the accuracy of the results has been considered suitable for
forecasting intervals of up to 30 years. The technique provides powerful information with no need to carry
out any further expensive and/or laborious analyses: the whole algorithm could be easily put into practice
using commercial mathematical packages. In order to illustrate the model’s applicability, four case studies
will be presented.
Nomenclature H: defect odometer [m]
l: maximum defect length [mm]
Dt1: pipeline service life under original operating lf: defect forecast length [mm]
conditions [years] LSEGi: local segment length [m]
Dt2: pipeline service life under posterior operating N: total number of active corrosion sites
conditions [years] n: vicinity parameter
Dtc: coating degradation lag [years] Ri: individual defect dimension corrosion rate [mm/
Dtf: forecasting lag [years] year]
Dts: pipeline service life [years] RDi: local defect dimension corrosion rate [mm/year]
sdi: forecast dimension standard deviation [mm] RDij: individual corrosion rate at a nearby defect [mm/
sRi: local depth corrosion rate standard deviation [mm] year]
s: scoring factor for service condition changes
d: maximum metal-loss depth [mm] w: maximum defect width [mm]
Df: maximum metal-loss forecast dimension [mm] wf: defect forecast width [mm]
Dj: pig-reported dimension (depth, width and length)
[mm]
dj: pig-reported defect depth [mm]
Epig: tool measurement error [mm] (at 80% confidence
level)
Fh: service conditions linearization factor
F OR OVER ONE hundred years pipelines have been
used to transport hydrocarbons from their distant
location to refineries and onwards to consumers. Many
major world markets nowadays depend upon this
increasingly-ageing pipeline infrastructure to supply most
*Author’s contact details:
tel: +55 21 3211 7264 of their energy demands. It is unfortunate that ageing
email: erika_nicoletti@petrobras.com.br adversely affects a pipeline’s integrity, and it can suffer from

2. 20 The Journal of Pipeline Engineering
many types of damage under typical service conditions. hand, long-term scenario predictions are typically associated
with the system’s economic viability forecasting (and
Corrosion has historically been the greatest time-dependent estimating its remaining life); such analyses are usually
threat to pipeline integrity. The process itself reduces the better served with accurate modelling.
local metal cross-section, affecting the remaining strength
and, consequently, reducing the pipeline’s containment Despite both algorithms being developed with the aim of
capacity in the area of the damage. incorporating them into a company’s proprietary defect-
assessment software [6], they can also be easily implemented
Operators can quantify corrosion in their systems through using any common commercial mathematical package.
periodic metal-loss in-line inspections (ILI). Subsequently, Accordingly, both are presented in only their most simplistic
the system’s fitness-for-purpose can be assessed at each interpretations. The underlying assumptions of the models,
point by carrying out damage tolerance analysis using, as and the descriptive formulations, will be described and
input, ILI data and required service conditions [1, 2]. discussed. Real cases studies will then be presented to
illustrate the methodology anticipated results and overall
However, given that pig inspections show only the state of performance, before final conclusions are given.
static damage at the time of the inspection, integrity
forecasting must take into account corrosion growth
estimates. Furthermore, although the phenomenon of Theoretical background
corrosion is widely known, a plethora of factors impact the
process kinetics along a pipeline’s length, and the inherent The corrosion process is irreversible: once it takes place,
randomness generally associated with real field conditions, metal-loss damage at a particular site can only either grow,
makes its mechanistic modelling a complex task. This or remain the same over time, the latter being a sign of site
requires highly-skilled work, the difficulties of which are inactivity (and possible repassivation).
often compounded by an inconvenient lack of historical
data concerning many of the process control parameters. As time goes by, it is expected that new active sites will arise,
Thus, it has become common practice to adopt an empirical while some of the existing ones will cease growing.
approach, mostly based on worst-case scenarios Additionally, time-dependent defect enlargements usually
(recommended practices and/or historical data) [3, 4]. slow down over time although, as a general rule,
However, such procedures usually give rise to highly- deterministic approaches treat those processes as linear [7,
inaccurate forecasts, particularly when dealing with long- 8]. Valor et al. [9] suggest the following should be taken into
term scenarios. account:
Indeed, the US’ Office of Pipeline Safety estimated that the • the slowing down effect: 0-10% of reduction in past
ability to accurately forecast corrosion rates could save corrosion rates
American pipeline companies more than US$ 100 million • the cessation of growth effect: 0-20% of the number
per year through reduced maintenance costs and accident of sites nucleated per year
avoidance [5]. • new defect nucleation: 0-65% of the number of sites
nucleated per year
Fortunately, ILI metal-loss mapping reflects either unknown
service condition variances and/or local electrochemical Conversely, probabilistic models often use the following
mechanism abnormalities, providing a good background, distributions in order to represent:
insofar as processing past behaviour is concerned, for
corrosion-rate inferences. • nucleation time – exponential and Weibull [9, 10]
• number of sites nucleated over time: Poisson [9]
The current work aims to develop a simplified methodology • growth rate: gamma, log-normal, or extreme-value
to allow reasonably-accurate pipeline-integrity forecasts, distributions [6, 10, 11]
chiefly by using ILI data. Two basic algorithms have been
constructed: the first, which is presented in this paper, has The Bayesian approach and the Markovian process have
been directed to long-term scenarios. The second part of also been widely used in probabilistic framework modelling
the methodology has targets short-term predictions, and [12-15].
will be published in the second art of the paper [in the June,
2009, issue of the Journal of Pipeline Engineering]. Given that metal-loss measurements reflect operational
condition variations and the overall randomness of the
The main differences between the algorithms result from corrosion process itself, the proper treatment of ILI data
their diverse application expectations. Short-term scenarios can lead to reasonable estimates of past behaviour [16-18].
are usually applied in order to define reinspection intervals
and rehabilitation scopes. As operational pipeline safety In order to determine the corrosion rate, damage must be
and reliability often depends on the result, conservative quantified at two different points in time. However, in
approaches have always been preferable. On the other order to avoid the usual laborious defect-matching

3. 1st Quarter, 2009 21
procedures [5, 19], the current model has been adapted to – eventually – measurement bias, with a confidence
use a single ILI data set. Also, the model has been constructed level of 80%. The mathematical framework to be
under the premise of a linear relationship existing with the presented is independently applied to the anomaly
process’s past behaviour. Its breakthrough came with the populations located on the external and internal
assumption that only adjacent metal loss represents the surfaces. New defect generation, as well as the rate
corrosion activity at each point, which will be described of cessation of defect growth, are considered to be
further below. negligible.
The local corrosion activity principle • Nucleation time: defect populations are assumed to
be instantaneously nucleated at the first exposure to
The authors consider it a rational assumption that all corrosive conditions.
metal-loss located in close vicinity and on the same side of
the pipe wall (external/internal) is under similar conditions • Defect growth: determined based on the past
of corrosion attack. If, regarding the variations in corrosion behaviour of local corrosion activity. The details of
activity along a pipeline’s length, it is expected that future this premise regarding external and internal surface
service conditions remain similar, then future corrosion corrosion are described below.
growth can be predicted based on the metal-loss anomaly
population located in the defect neighbourhood. • Coating protection effectiveness: the coating
condition is considered to be perfect at the time of
To define the range of each defect’s environment, a vicinity pipeline commissioning. All pipeline coating
parameter must be empirically determined, using the holidays are considered to be instantaneously
relationship expressed in Equn 1. Each defect will also have generated after a specific coating degradation lag.
its associated characteristic length, as defined by Equn 21. The protection effectiveness is assumed to be 0% at
all active sites of external corrosion, and 100% in
2n+1 > = 7 (1) holiday-free regions. Water and air permeation
time dependency is not taken into consideration.
L Si = Hi + n − Hi − n (2)
• Coating degradation lag: must be empirically defined
Figure 1 illustrates the principle in a pipe section from case based on coating data history and engineering best
study 4. All the anomalies displayed are internal metal-loss, judgment.
and channelling can be clearly noted. Two anomalies have
been arbitrarily chosen to exemplify the neighbourhood’s • Cathodic protection: is assumed to remain in a
delimitation mechanism: for the purpose of illustration, steady-state condition throughout the entire service
the lower recommended value for the vicinity parameter life of the pipeline.
has been used in the figure (n = 3). Note that only axial
proximity is taken into account: n anomalies immediately • Probability density functions (PDFs): defect depth
up- or downstream are considered as belonging to each dimensions and corrosion rates are described by
defect’s local population. Gaussian PDFs. It is worth noting that, given that
each defect’s corrosion rate is represented in terms
A number of additional simplistic assumptions have been of a local average, there is a normalizing effect on the
made, and a general outline of them will be given in the overall depth corrosion rate data set2.
following paragraphs.
• Process characterization: irreversible, evolving at a Mathematical framework
constant rate, and at discrete time intervals.
Corrosion rates PDFs
• Defect population: ILI reported metal-loss anomalies
trimmed, based on the empirical criterion defined The probability density functions should be individually
in Equn 3: defined, taking account of the damage accumulated in each
defect neighbourhood, according to the previously-outlined
2Et principle of local corrosion activity3. If a significant change
Dj ≥ (3) in the system’s operating conditions takes place after any
1.28
where Et represents tool the measurement error and 2. Pipeline geometry, material features, and the axial and circumferential
corrosion rates, have only been considered deterministically, as will be
the allowable damage as a consequence.
1. The parameter n should be adjusted in order to obtain an average 3. Clustering criteria should preferably be applied after a future
segment length not exceeding 1-2 km. morphology forecast, not before.

4. 22 The Journal of Pipeline Engineering
particular event, then a factor Fh is defined accordingly, while Equn 2 should be used to define its neighbourhood
using Equn 4; otherwise, Fh is assumed as 14. characteristic length.
Δt1 + sΔt2
Fh = (4) Future defect morphology
Δt s
The average dimensions of future defects can be calculated
Internal defects from Equn 6a, and Equn 6b is used to determine the
associated dispersion.
Individual defect growths (radial, axial, and circumferential)
are determined by means of Equn 5a. The subsequent D f = D i .RLi .Δt f (6a)
application of the local corrosion activity principle leads to
the determination of the corrosion rate average for the
defect population located in the adjoined region by using ⎛ E ⎞
2
σ Df = Δt f (σ Li ) + ⎜ t ⎟
2
Equn 5b, while the dispersion is obtained from Equn 5c. (6b)
⎝ 1.28 ⎠
Furthermore, the characteristic length associated with each
defect neighbourhood (Lseg) can also be defined, as previously
discussed.
Damage tolerance
Hence, each flaw on a pipe’s inside surface will have one
single PDF representing its depth corrosion growth rate, There are a number of metal-loss assessment criteria that
while axial and circumferential rates, as well as its can be used to determine damage tolerance. The most
neighbourhood characteristic length, are deterministically simplistic and widely known is ASME B31.G, which only
defined. takes into account axially-oriented corrosion defects
submitted to internal pressure loading. Depending on the
particular system’s damage characteristics (which can include
Di
Ri = (5a) circumferential- or even helically-oriented defects), or the
Δt s existence of axial loads (such as those geotechnically or
j=i+ n
thermally induced), an appropriate criterion should be
chosen to deterministically find out the maximum allowable
∑R j
defect depth as a function of its forecast width and length,
RLi = Fh j=i−n (5b)
(2n + 1) according to Equn 7.
d a = f (l f , w f ) (7)
j=i+ n
∑ (R − Rj )
2
Li
σ Li = j=i−n (5c)
2n Probability of exceedance
The future defect depth (df) shall not exceed its allowable
depth (da) [22, 23], as represented by the limit-state function
External defects
in Equn8:
It is proposed that pipeline coating holidays are considered
stationary. Thus, circumferential and axial growth rates are d f − da < 0 (8)
assumed as zero at all active sites located on the pipeline’s
external surface. Equation 5d represents the depth growth In the current approach, df is characterized by a normal
rate, considering the lag in coating degradation. distribution, while da is deterministic. This means that the
probability of a pipeline exceeding the limit-state condition
dj at each defect can be determined as the area on the right-
Rdi = (5d) hand side of the allowable depth under the df PDF (see
Δt s − Δt c Fig.2)5.
Equations 5b and 5c must therefore also be applied in Economic remediation rate
order to characterize the defect’s depth corrosion rate PDF,
The economic remediation rate which provides cost-effective
operation must be ascertained by a pipeline’s own operator,
considering each case individually. It is outside the scope of
4. The scoring factor for changes in service conditions (s) should be
determined based on historical data (coupons/probes, comparison of
multiple ILI data or computation simulations) and engineering best
judgment [20]. 5. Most commercial packages have standard functions to perform this.

5. 1st Quarter, 2009 23
Pipeline 1 Pipeline 2 Pipeline 3 Pipeline 4
Diameter (in) 16 14 22 16
Minimum
8.7 8.2 6.3 7.9
thickness (mm)
Pipe material X60 X65 X40/46 X35
Length (km) 184 228 98 98
Service life (yr) 26 36 32 41
MAOP (kg/sqcm) 100 97 21-56* 31-41*
Table 1. Construction
and operational data. *worst case scenario hydraulic simulated range.
this work to accomplish a full perspective into problem, but • Pipeline 1: an onshore pipeline carrying dry gas
some of the factors that must be taken into account in such since its operation began. Accumulated corrosion
an analysis include: damage was slight on both the external and internal
pipeline surfaces.
• technical and economic viability of alternative
pipeline systems, or other modes of transportation • Pipeline 2: an onshore gas pipeline that has been
• the ratio between the cost of a new pipeline and the used to transport both wet and sour products.
estimated maintenance costs of the existing one Accumulated internal corrosion is severe although,
• the impact of a possible delivery shortage on the on the other hand, almost no external metal-loss
local economy indications have been reported as a result of the
• current, and possible future, economic scenarios dryness of the of region crossed by this pipeline, in
the NE of Brazil.
Restriction on the model’s applicability
• Pipeline 3: a trunk line responsible for transporting
As the whole model is based on averaging the behaviour of all of one refinery’s crude oil supply. During its
the local corrosion process, its application is not operational life, it endured production water
recommended to systems where hot-spot mechanisms (such pumped through recurrently, together with some
as stray current, under-coat corrosion, etc.) are significant high-BSW content product. Long shut-down periods
features. were also a regular occurrence. Internal corrosion
damage is quite severe and channelling damage is
general. In order to meet an increase in demand, an
Case studies increase in flow capacity was required. The resultant
new service conditions were simulated by the worst-
In order to illustrate the model’s application, four case case hydraulic scenarios, and the maximum
studies have been chosen, the input data for which is operational pressure profile was defined accordingly.
summarized in Table 1. A brief introduction is given for
each, before the model results and overall performance are • Pipeline 4: an onshore line which has been used to
discussed. transport naphtha and crude oil, the latter usually
Fig.1. Local corrosion activity.

6. 24 The Journal of Pipeline Engineering
Fig.2. The probabilistic limit-state
function.
with a high BSW content. Again, production water POE threshold range of 10-4-10-5, and the economic
transportation was a frequent occurrence together remediation rate specified for each case, it can be concluded
with extensive shutdown periods. The whole pipeline that pipeline 3 could be safely operated for almost 30 years,
has bad channelling damage, as shown in Fig.1. while pipeline 4 would be cost-effectively operational for
approximately 20 years at most.
Results and discussion
Conversely, with the exception of pipeline 1, Figs 6 and 7
The model’s output data from the four case studies are show that internal corrosion developing over 30 years
summarized in Table 2, while Fig.3 shows the overall would be a direct threat. Pipeline 4 is not expected to
normalized local corrosion activity. Figures 4 and 5 present maintain its present use for long, while the operational
the expected probability of exceedance for safe operations reliability of pipelines 2 and 3 will not be cost-effective for
(at the required levels) without repair to the 200 most more than 20 and 10 years, respectively.
critical metal-loss areas in each case study, for the next 20
and 30 years, respectively. Pipeline 2 was not analysed for As a result of applying these forecasts, the company’s board
external corrosion, due the lack of significant indications of directors has undertaken the following:
on its external surface. In view of a desirable operational
Pipeline 1 Pipeline 2 Pipeline 3 Pipeline 4
Population - filtered 213 - 867 222
E Vicinity parameter (n) 5 - 5 5
X
T Local corrosion rates Gaussian
E distribution parameters 0.08-0.006 - 0.053-0.004 0.80-0.006
R [mm/year]
N
A Pecuniary remediation rate
Cost-effective coating repairs 50 - 100 100
L
number
Remaining life Expected under
> 30 - 30 20
historic conditions [years]
Population - filtered 337 10,370 50,325 23240
I Vicinity parameter (n) 5 10 20 15
N
T Local corrosion rates Gaussian
E 0.065-0.008 0.080-0.006 0.045-0.003 0.081-0.007
distribution parameters
R
N Pecuniary remediation rate
A Cost-effective coating repairs 40 80 80 50
L number
Remaining life Based under Table 2. Modelling
30 15-20 10 5
historic conditions [years] parameters and output.

7. 1st Quarter, 2009 25
00052
00002
0 0 0 51
0 0 0 01
0005
0
2 3 0, 0 6 3 0, 0 0 4 0, 0 4 4 0, 0 8 4 0, 0 2 5 0, 0 6 5 0, 0 0 6 0, 0 4 6 0, 0 8 6 0, 0 2 7 0, 0 6 7 0, 0
mm/year
Fig.3. Internal corrosion rate Local Individual
histogram for pipeline 3.
Fig.4. 20-year POE forecast of the
worst external metal-loss anomalies.
Fig.5. 30-year POE forecast of
the worst external metal-loss
anomalies.

8. 26 The Journal of Pipeline Engineering
Fig.6. 10-year POE forecast of the
worst internal metal-loss anomalies.
Fig.7. 20-year POE forecast of the
worst internal metal-loss anomalies.
• pipeline 4 was converted to specified diesel between the conceptual design and commissioning stages,
transportation; mostly as consequence of the complexities concerning the
• a major rehabilitation project is being carried out legal agreements with landowners through whose land the
on pipeline 3, together with several mitigating actions pipeline will be routed, together with the tougher regulations
(including a new strategy regarding production regarding environmental and operational issues.
water);
• a brand new pipeline is under construction to Pipeline operators therefore need to forecast their systems’
replace pipeline 2 (mainly in order to supply the remaining lives with reasonable long-term accuracy. Despite
local market’s forecast rising demand) while an corrosion being the major time-dependent threat to ageing
alternative use for pipeline 2 is being studied. pipeline systems, there is little available guidance concerning
corrosion modelling for real pipeline service conditions,
and the subject remains controversial.
Conclusions
The current work has been developed to support the
Nowadays, new onshore pipeline systems must be planned operator’s long-term strategic planning, by providing a
well in advance. Sometimes almost a decade can pass straightforward stochastic model to forecast the remaining

9. 1st Quarter, 2009 27
life of corroded pipelines. As input data, the newly-developed 2. R.Bea et al., 2003. Reliability based fitness-for-service
model requires pipeline geometry and material properties, assessment of corrosion defects using different burst pressure
the worst-case scenario for operational pressure, a good- predictors and different inspection techniques. 22nd
quality set of metal-loss ILI data, and also the economic International Conference on Onshore Mechanics and Arctic
Engineering, June 8-13, Cancun.
threshold for the system’s future remediation. The
3. NACE RP-0775. Preparation, installation, analysis and
pioneering concept of local corrosion activity was interpretation of corrosion coupons in oilfield operations.
introduced, and the underlying simplistic assumptions are 4. NACE SP0502, 2008. Pipeline external corrosion direct
detailed together with the entire mathematical framework. assessment methodology.
The definitions and roles of the empirical parameters have 5. J.M.Race, S.J.Dawson, L.Stanley, and S.Kariyawasam, 2006.
also been described. Predicting corrosion rates for onshore oil and gas pipelines.
International Pipeline Conference, Calgary.
A balance has been established between over- and under- 6. S.B.Cunha, A.P.F.Souza, E.S.M.Nicoletti, and L.D.Aguiar,
conservative assumptions, and the model had been 2006. A risk-based inspection methodology to optimize in-
line inspection programs. The Journal of Pipeline Integrity,
considered suitable for forecasting periods of up to 30
pp133-144.
years. Its algorithm is set out in detail and it can easily be 7. M.Ahammed, 1998. Probabilistic estimation of remaining
implemented using standard commercial mathematical life of a pipeline in the presence of active corrosion defects.
packages. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 75, pp321-
329
The technique provides powerful information with no 8. S.L.Fenyvesi, H.Lu, and T.R.Jack, 2004. Prediction of
need for further expensive or laborious analyses. The use of corrosion defect growth on operating pipeline. Proc.
the model has already proved to be particularly relevant to International Pipeline Conference, October 4 - 8, Calgary,
forecasting critical problems long before they present any Canada.
9. A.Valor, F.Caleyo, L.Alfonso, D.Rivas, and J.M.Hallen, 2007.
real threat. The model has also been used to give rise to
Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: a new model for
active mitigation planning, such as a review of inhibitor initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits. Corrosion
strategy and definition of the scope of coating rehabilitation Science, 49, pp559–579.
projects. 10. A.Ainouche, 2006. Future integrity management strategy of
a gas pipeline using Bayesian risk analysis. 23rd World Gas
Additionally, if more-sophisticated mathematical packages Conference, Amsterdam.
are available, the model could be easily adapted to 11. P.J.Laycock and P.A.Scarf. Exceedances, extremes,
incorporate further refinements, incuding: extrapolation and order statistics for pits, pitting and other
localized corrosion phenomena. Corrosion Science, 35. no 1-4,
pp135-145, 193.
• non-Gaussian behaviour (for which an automatic
12. J.L.Alamilla and E.Sosa, 2008. Stochastic modelling of
best-fitting-distribution tool is required) corrosion damage propagation in active sites from field
inspection data. Corrosion Science, 50, pp1811–1819.
• full limit-state approach: pipeline geometry and 13. J.L.Alamilla, D.De Leon, and O.Flores, 2005. Reliability
material properties could also be considered based integrity assessment of steel pipelines under corrosion.
probabilistically (if convolution integrals can be Corrosion Engineering, Science and Technology, 40, 1.
easily solved) [2, 10, 24] 14. S.A.Timashev, 2003. Updating pipeline remaining life
through in-line inspection. International Pipeline Pigging
• any specifics of a system’s history could be taken Conference, Houston.
15. S.A.Timashev et al., 2008. Markov description of corrosion
into consideration by making the necessary
defect growth and its application to reliability based inspection
adjustments to the model’s premises and and maintenance of pipelines. Proc. 7th International Pipeline
assumptions. Conference, Calgary.
16. G.Desjardins, 2002. Optimized pipeline repair and inspection
planning using in-line inspection data. Pipeline Pigging,
Acknowledgments Integrity Assessment, and Repair Conference, Houston.
17. B.Gu, R.Kania, S.Sharma, and M.Gao, 2002. Approach to
The authors thank Petrobras Transporte SA for permission assessment of corrosion growth in pipelines. 4th International
to publish this paper, and their colleagues Dr Sérgio Pipeline Conference, Calgary.
18. G.Desjardins, 2001. Predicting corrosion rates and future
Cunha, Carlos Alexandre Martins, and João Hipólito de
corrosion severity from in-line inspection data. Materials
Lima Oliver for many enlightening discussions and Performance, August, 40,8.
contributions. 19. J.M.Race et al., 2007. Development of a predictive model for
pipeline external corrosion rates. Journal of Pipeline Engineering,
6, pp15-29.
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NACE International, New Orleans. of corroded pipelines.

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