1. The U.S.-Japan Relationship
Under Prime Minister Noda:
Stuck in Neutral?
Eric Johnston
Deputy Editor, The Japan Times
Nov. 9, 2011, Doshisha University

2. Why is the Japan-U.S. Relationship
important to Japan?
 America is Japan’s
second largest
trading partner
after China.
 Japan has a
security treaty
with the U.S. that
stations American
troops on
Japanese soil for
Japan’s defense.
 Japan and the U.S.
have common values
(advanced industrial
democratic principles)
and common strategic
interests in the Asia-
Pacific region.
 U.S. culture has
permeated Japan and
relations between the
peoples of both
countries are close.

3. Why is the Japan- U.S. Relationship
Important to the U.S.?
 Japan is America’s
fourth largest export
market, and one of the
largest owners of U.S.
government debt.
 Japan serves an
important base for the
U.S. military in East
Asia, which can protect
U.S. interests in this
part of the world.
 Japan serves an
important ally to the
U.S. in many
international forums
(the United
Nations, APEC, the G-
8 and G-20)
Good relations with
Japan helps ensure
Japan doesn’t turn too
much towards
China, which the U.S.
sees as it’s main
international
competitor for power
and resources.

4. Foreign Ministry Poll: U.S. Images of
Japan in 2011 (as of March 2011)
 84% of Americans polled
saw Japan as a
``dependable ally’’
 42% of those polled felt
that Japanese and
American people
understand each other
``pretty well’’.
 92% felt the Japan-U.S.
Security Treaty should be
maintained.
NOTE: Poll was conducted
among 1,200 citizens 18
and over in February and
March.
 86% believed the Security
Treaty at least moderately
contributes to peace and
stability in region.
 97% said Japan was a
country with great
traditions.
 91% believed the
Japanese economy to be
strong.
 88% of those polled said
Japan was known for
anime, fashion, and food.

5. So, The Good News is that most
American citizens clearly like
Japan and
respect the Japanese people.
But what about the
official U.S.-Japan
relationship?

6. THE GOOD: Operation
Tomodachi
THE BAD: Trans Pacific
Partnership Agreement,
Abduction of dual nationality
children by Japanese parent.
THE UGLY: Okinawa and the
Futenma Relocation Issue
``The
Good, the
Bad, and
the Ugly’’

7. I. THE GOOD: Operation Tomodachi
 Was a joint operation
between the Japanese
government and the U.S.
Navy, Marines, Air Force, and
Army units in Japan and
overseas.
 Lasted from March 12-May 4
 Involved up to 24 naval
ships, 189 aircraft, and
24,000 personnel
 Rescued 20,000 people in
the Tohoku region during the
first week (March 12-19)
Activities included:
 Removing debris from quake
and tsunami, including 5,000
cars that had washed onto
airport runways at Sendai
airport. Sendai airport began
receiving relief supplies from
March 15th.
 Distributing relief supplies
 Repairing airports, roads,
bridges,
 Searching for survivors
 Helping out with the
Fukushima crisis and
monitoring radiation levels in
the area

8. Photos from Operation Tomodachi

9. In addition to Operation Tomodachi, the U.S. also:
1) Sent 144 rescue workers with rescue dogs to look
for survivors
2) Sent medical and engineering staff to Ofunato,
Iwate Pref., as well as supplies.
Total private contributions from U.S. citizens to Japan
for Tohohoku victims came to about 300 million dollars

10. II. THE BAD:
Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement
WHAT IS THE TPP?
 Started off as a possible free trade
agreement between Singapore, New
Zealand, Chile, and Brunei. Later, the
U.S., Australia, Peru, and Vietnam decided to
join. Japan now debating on whether or not
to join.
 U.S. sees TPP as allowing free trade in Asia
of manufactured
goods, agriculture, investment, intellectual
property rights, and labor.

11. WHO IN THE U.S. WOULD GAIN FROM A
TPP AGREEMENT?
 1) Large American
agricultural companies that
mass produce
wheat, potatoes, and corn
that they want to export to
Asia.
 2) U.S. defense technology
companies that want to sell
more weapons to Asia.
 3) U.S. energy
firms, including fossil fuel
and nuclear power firms, as
well as renewable energy
firms, who want to sell to
Asia.
 4) Insurance and financial
companies seeking to invest
in Asian economies

12. WHO IN JAPAN WOULD GAIN FROM A
TPP AGREEMENT?
 1) Japanese
manufacturing firms
looking to expand
production and sales in
Asian markets.
 2) Japanese banks and
financial companies
seeking easy investment
opportunities in Asia.
 3) Japanese trading
companies seeking to
increase the amount of
imported goods to Japan.

13. WHAT WOULD
CONSUMERS IN BOTH
COUNTRIES GET?
More goods, at
cheaper prices?

14. TPP’S BASIC POLITICAL SITUATION IN JAPAN
Prime Minister’s Noda’s positive stance towards TPP
has many different kinds of supporters
PRO-TPP FACTION
INCLUDES:
 1) Major business
organizations (Keidanren)
 2) Urban-based politicians
from the DPJ, LDP, and
several other parties.
 3) Influential academics
who are strongly pro-free
trade
 4) Most Japanese
mainstream media, and all
Tokyo-based media
 5) Ministry of
Trade, Economy, and
Industry
 6) Younger farmers who
see the TPP agreement as
a way to reform Japanese
agriculture in their favor.
 7) Many urbanites who
want cheaper imported
goods.

15. At the same time, however, a number of different
individuals and groups are strongly opposed to the TPP
ANTI-TPP FACTION
IN JAPAN INCLUDES:
 1) Most farmers and
fishermen
 2) Many people outside of
Japan’s major cities (Tokyo,
Yokohama, Nagoya, Osaka)
 3) Small business owners
who fear they cannot
compete with cheaper
imports
 4) Politicians from rural
areas
 5) Urbanites who are happy
to pay extra for Japanese
products due to fears of
safety of foreign products.
 6) Academics and medical
experts who worry TPP will
lead to import of genetically
modified foods.
 7) Ministry of Agriculture
 8) People who are opposed
to American-style capitalism

16. II. THE BAD:
Child Abductions and
The Hague Convention
1) At least 269 children born in the United
States of a Japanese and American parent
were taken by their Japanese parent back to
Japan even after a U.S. court ordered the
Japanese parent not to leave the country or to
turn the child over to the American parent.
2) Japanese courts and the Japanese
government have refused formal requests by
the U.S. government to either return the child
to the U.S. or to let the American parent visit
the child in Japan. They say the decision is
entirely that of the Japanese parent.

17. II. THE BAD:
Child Abductions and
The Hague Convention
3) The Hague Convention: an international treaty
that calls upon countries to seek the return of
abducted children. Japan is the only advanced
nation that is not a member to this treaty.
4) In the U.S., this issue is now a major political
and social issue. In September 2010, the U.S.
Congress passed a resolution calling on Japan to
address the problem, provide access to the
American parents, and to join the Hague
Convention.
5) Other countries, including
England, France, Germany, Canada, and Italy, as
well as the European Union, all have citizens who
have been abducted to Japan. They have also
called on Japan to join the Hague Convention.

18. The Diet announced in May 2011 that it intended
to join the Hague Convention.
WHY HASN’T JAPAN JOINED YET?
 1) Traditional Mindset Towards Families: When it comes to
raising children, Japan’s attitude is ``mother knows best’’. So
Japan’s attitude is that even if the mother breaks the law in
another country, it’s her child—not the child of both the mother
and father –and she has the right to do what she wants with the
child.
 2) Conservative Legal System: Japanese domestic law favors
the mother in any family dispute that goes to court. Signing the
Hague Convention would force Japan’s legal system to be more
open and challenge the laws that are already in existence.
 3) Japanese Family Law and Custom Place Less Emphasis
on Children’s Rights: In the U.S., a complex system of
laws, regulations, and people exist to help children whose
parents are fighting in court to keep them. In Japan, the desires
and needs of the child come after the legal rights of the
mother, and then the father.

19. III. THE UGLY: Futenma
 The Futenma relocation issue is the most
difficult issue facing U.S.-Japan relations
and Prime Minister Noda today.
 Since 1996, nine Japanese Prime Ministers,
three U.S. Presidents, and three
Okinawan governors have been unable to
resolve this problem.
 The Futenma issue is so difficult that
many U.S. and Japanese policy experts
now refuse to discuss it in public.

20. What’s the Relocation
Agreement?
Current agreement between U.S. and
Japan is to relocate 8,000 Marines in
Okinawa and 9,000 of their family
members to Guam by 2014, in exchange
for Japan building a replacement base in
northern Okinawa, near Henoko, which is
part of Nago city. Japan has agreed to
pay roughly 6 billion dollars for Guam
relocation as well build the base.

21. Why Is This Problem So Big?
Okinawans see it as part of the fundamental
problem of U.S. bases in Okinawa:
A) Okinawa: 0.6 percent of Japan’s total land area.
74 percent of all U.S. bases in Japan are
concentrated there.
B) 20 air space and 28 water areas around
Okinawa where people cannot fish and
commercial planes cannot fly through.
C) On average, there are 13 criminal cases a
month in Okinawa involving U.S. service
personnel.


23. 普天間基地
Futenma sits in the middle of Ginowan city

24. Area near Henoko where replacement
facility is to be located

25. 年/月 担当政府 内容
１９９６年４月 日本・米国 普天間返還が同意された。
１９９６年１２月 日本・米国 官僚会議で普天間移設が協議された（名護市の辺野古か）。
１９９９年１２月 沖縄 名護市長は条件付き普天間移設の計画を受ける。
２０００―２００３年 日本・沖縄 普天間移設計画に関して１１回会議を行う。
２００６年５月 日本・米国 辺野古の新基地でV字型滑走路が同意された
２００６―２００９年 日本・沖縄 普天間移設計画に関して９回会議が行う。
２００９年８月 日本 衆議院選直前、鳩山さんは「移設県外」を発言した
２００９年９月 日本 発足した鳩山政権は「２００６年日米同意を見直す」
２０１０年１月 沖縄 名護市長選辺野古移設を反対している方が当選
２０１０年２月 沖縄 沖縄県議会「県外移設」決議が一致で可決。
２０１０年４月 沖縄 沖縄県内全ての４１村町が「県外移設」を要望
２０１０年５月 日本・米国 日米宣言で辺野古移設を再確認
２０１０年９月 沖縄 名護市議会選で移設反対派は圧倒的に当選。
２０１０年１１月 沖縄 知事選を当選した仲井間知事「県外移設」を呼びかける
２０１１年３月 米国 米国上議員たちが「普天間と嘉手納統合」を促進。
２０１１年９月 日本・沖縄 野田総理がオバマ大統領に「辺野古計画を実現」
仲井間知事は「県内移設が無理」
２０１１年１０月 日本・米国 日米防衛大臣会合で日本は「年内に環境評価書を提出」
２０１１年１１月 日本・沖縄 日本防衛大臣が仲井間知事に「沖縄の理解得ずに環境評価書を
提出しない」と伝えた。

26. MAJOR POLITICAL PLAYERS INVOLVED IN
FUTENMA ISSUE:
In Japan:
 Yoshihiko Noda: Has said that
he will push for the Henoko
agreement.
 Ichiro Ozawa and his faction:
Oppose the Henoko agreement,
favor building new base
outside of Okinawa or Japan.
 Seiji Maehara and his faction:
Support relocating the base to
Henoko. Maehara is considered
to be the most pro-American’’
DPJ politician.
 LDP (Diet members): Approve
of the Henoko agreement
 LDP (Okinawa members):
Oppose the Henoko agreement
In the U.S.:
 Obama Administration:
Wants the Henoko
agreement to go through.
 U.S. Congress: Worried
about cost, and has
suggested a new
relocation plan be agreed
to.
 The U.S. Army: Past
officials have suggested
Marines on Okinawa are
not necessary

27. From Neutral To Forward. . .or Reverse:
U.S-Japan Relations in 2012:
THREE KEY POLITICAL QUESTIONS:
1) How will Japanese politics
change?
2) How will U.S. politics change?
3) How will Okinawan politics
change?

28. How will Japanese politics change?
 Will there be a Lower
House election in 2012?
 If there is a Lower House
election, will the DPJ retain
control of the Lower
House, or will have to
govern in partnership with
the LDP?
 Will the DPJ break up and if
so, what does that mean
for the other parties?
 If there is no Lower House
election, will Noda be
forced out of
office, meaning yet
another Prime Minister
and Cabinet?
 Who in the DPJ would
become Prime Minister?
Seiji Maehara? Katsuya
Okada? Somebody else?
 What does the rise of
independent politicians
like Osaka Pref. Gov. Toru
Hashimoto mean for
national politics and
diplomacy with the U.S.?

29. How will U.S. politics change?
 The U.S. has a
presidential election in
November 2012. That
means most of next
year, Obama will be in
re-election mode. How
will he deal with Japan
during this time?
 Mitt Romney is the
likely Republican
challenger. U.S. Japan
experts connected to
the Republican Party
are already advising
him. What advice is he
getting about Japan?
 The U.S. Congress is
not in the mood to fund
the Futenma relocation
agreement, and is
aware opposition in
Okinawa is quite strong.
If Congress completely
cuts funding for the
relocation to Guam,
what will happen to
U.S.-Japan
arrangements with
Futenma?
 If Obama wins re-
election, will the
current Secretary of
State remain?

30. How will Okinawan politics
change?
Main Okinawan Political Issues for 2012
 1) Okinawa wants central government approval of a 10 year plan
(2012-2022) that will provide central government tax money to
Okinawa for various projects.
 2) Central government wants Okinawa to change its mind and
agree to accept building a new U.S. base at Henoko.
 3) Central government says it will provide money to Okinawa for
a 10 year plan (2012-2022) but exact amount is not decided.
Central government needs to spend money on rebuilding Tohoku
as well.
 4) Central government must decide exact amount for 10
year plan by early next year. scal year budget starts in April
2012. Fi
 5) Okinawa Prefecture assembly elections take place in
June 2012. Central government wants pro-Henoko relocation
candidates to win. Okinawa wants central government to approve
lots of money for 10 year plan.

31. IN CONCLUSION
The good feelings between the U.S. and Japan after
``Operation Tomodachi’’ are welcome, but they will
not lead to solutions to the other problems in 2012.
With the U.S., and probably Japan, having elections
next year, it’s possible that, by this time next year, a
new U.S. president and a new Japanese Prime
Minister will be in charge.
The approach of the U.S. and Japan towards each
other will depend on the economic and financial
situations in both countries-both of which are not
good. So, the relationship is probably going to be
stuck in neutral for a while longer.

32. THANK YOU!
I WILL NOW TAKE QUESTIONS IN
ENGLISH OR JAPANESE.
ご清聴ありがとうございました。
今は質疑がある方
気楽に英語でも日本語でも聞いてください。