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Stock market special report by epic research 20 march 2014
1. DAILY REPORT
20th
MARCH 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
Japanese stocks retreated from one-week highs on Thurs-
day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen raised the
prospect of interest rate hikes starting earlier than previ-
ously thought, sparking a selloff in equity markets and lift-
ing the U.S. dollar. The weaker yen helped to contain
broader market losses as a softer Japanese currency is
generally seen as a positive for exporters' income. The Nik-
kei share average fell 0.4 percent to 14,407.74 in choppy
mid-morning trade, after rising to as high as 14,548.76 ear-
lier. Record foreign stock sales last week also weighed on
the market, traders said. On Wednesday, Yellen said the
Fed might end its bond-buying program this fall, and could
start to raise interest rates around six months later, earlier
than anticipated.
Wall Street Update
US stocks fell on Wednesday after comments from Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen raised the possibility of an ear-
lier-than-anticipated increase in interest rates. The central
bank dropped the US unemployment rate as its definitive
yardstick for gauging the economy's strength and made
clear it would rely on a wide range of measures in deciding
when to raise interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial av-
erage .DJI fell 114.02 points or 0.70 percent, to end at
16,222.17. The S&P 500 .SPX slipped 11.48 points or 0.61
percent, to finish at 1,860.77. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC
dropped 25.711 points or 0.59 percent, to close at
4,307.602.
Previous day Roundup
After a flip-flop trade, the market ended on a flat note as
investors seemed to be cautious ahead of FOMC meet to-
night. The meet, first presided over by Fed Chair Janet
Yellen, is expected to continue to reduce the size of its
monthly bond purchase programme by USD 10 bn. The
Sensex ended up 0.25 points at 21832.86, and the Nifty
was up 7.40 pts at 6524.05. About 1445 shares advanced,
1328 shares declined, and 151 shares were unchanged.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in yesterdayâs session. The
sartorial indices performed as follow Consumer Durables
[up 20.83pts], Capital Goods [up 55.34pts], PSU [down
64.63pts], FMCG [up 82.22pts], Realty [down 4.92pts],
Power [down 1.80 pts], Auto [down 8.98pts], Healthcare
[up 46.30pts], IT [down 198.97pts], Metals [up 189.60pts],
TECK [down 79.80pts], Oil& Gas [down 45.81pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
D J l 16,222.17 -0.70
S&P 500 1,860.77 -0.61
NASDAQ 4,307.60 -0.59
EURO STO 3,076.36 -0.08
FTSE 100 6,573.13 -0.49
Nikkei 225 14,387.45 -0.52
Hong Kong 21,400.82 -0.78
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
TATASTEEL 356.40 15.70 +4.61
HINDALCO 119.80 4.95 +4.31
AMBUJACEM 190.00 6.00 +3.26
PNB 651.10 15.15 +2.38
ASIANPAINT 513.00 11.40 +2.27
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
TCS 2,037.80 84.20 -3.97
ONGC 314.25 10.70 -3.29
M&M 980.10 29.50 -2.92
COALINDIA 262.95 7.75 -2.86
Stocks at 52 Weekâs high
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
ACC 1283.30 25.20 +2.00
AMTEKAUTO 136.10 2.60 -1.87
BATAINDIA 1123.10 33.60 +3.08
CENTURYTEX 348.25 8.15 +2.40
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 6,524.05 +7.40 +0.11
SENSEX 21,832.86 +0.25 +0.00
Stocks at 52 Weekâs Low
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
HINDNATGLS 150.00 3.45 -2.25
- -
2. DAILY REPORT
20th
MARCH 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. COAL INDIA
COAL INDIA FUTURE is looking weak on charts, short build
up has been seen, we may see more downside, if it sustains
below 265 levels. We advise selling around 265-268 levels
with strict stop loss 275 for the targets of 260-254 levels.
2. VOLTAS
VOLTAS FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build up
has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sustains above
150 levels. We advise buying around 148-150 levels with
strict stop loss 145 for the targets of 152-155 levels.
EQUITY CASH & FUTURE
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. TREE HOUSE
TREE HOUSE is looking strong on charts. We advise buying
around 230-235 levels with strict stop loss of 215 for the
targets of 240-255 levels.
MACRO NEWS
Bank branches will remain open for full day on March 29,
30 and 31 to facilitate tax collection.
Money supply rose 14.2% YoY in fortnight ended March
7, vs. 12.8% a year earlier, the RBI said yesterday. Money
supply was Rs 94.55 tn ($1.55 tn) as on March 7, vs Rs
93.59 tn on February 21, RBI data showed. Reserve
money rose an annualized 11.8% in the week to March
14, higher than 9.1% a year earlier, the RBI said.
The relief that the central power regulator gave Tata
Power and Adani Power, might turn out to be short-lived
revelry. Five state governments are all set to challenge
the move by the regulator to let these companies pass
on their increased fuel costs to power purchasers.
Amid Ukraine muddle, global prices for wheat surge 3%
to $290-300 a tone.
Oil marketing companies (OMCs) may have to pay much
more on under-recoveries in FY14
BP, Niko Resources to formally join Reliance Industries
(RIL) arbitration against government
Anjani Portland open offer at Rs 61.75/share.
SKS Microfinance Completes securitization of Rs 26.73 cr.
3. DAILY REPORT
20th
MARCH 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
FUTURE & OPTION
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts
)
Open
Interest
NIFTY PE 6,500 33.35 4,08,933 61,71,450
NIFTY PE 6,400 12.95 2,31,323 62,69,700
NIFTY PE 6,600 78.8 1,90,559 26,01,500
BANKNIFTY PE 12,000 94.85 38,658 4,75,325
TCS PE 2,000 17 8,199 1,91,500
INFY PE 3,200 15.45 5,642 1,78,250
SBIN PE 1,700 29.7 4,020 2,65,125
AXISBANK PE 1,350 28.8 3,836 6,91,250
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Option
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY CE 6,600 28.3 3,58,861 52,29,550
NIFTY CE 6,500 79.85 2,21,111 45,93,450
NIFTY CE 6,700 7.2 1,80,022 43,32,350
BANKNIFTY CE 12,500 94.05 37,225 3,27,000
TCS CE 2,100 16.15 9,398 3,36,875
INFY CE 3,400 11.6 7,090 3,06,000
SBIN CE 1,750 20.7 6,458 6,85,625
TATASTEEL CE 360 7.8 5,057 12,32,000
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAYSELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 51974 1693.87 49265 1605.66 518930 16888.83 88.21
INDEX OPTIONS 347399 11121.20 379333 12105.62 1673954 54384.11 -984.42
STOCK FUTURES 96993 3289.28 106903 3530.20 1080592 35201.29 -240.92
STOCK OPTIONS 69266 2267.12 71026 2331.95 102596 3291.50 -64.82
TOTAL -1201.95
INDICES S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
NIFTY 6488.55 6506.3 6523.75 6541.5 6558.95
NIFTYJUNIOR 12682.51 12734.68 12782.96 12835.13 12883.41
BANK NIFTY 12067.74 12127.14 12191.79 12251.19 12315.84
STOCKS IN NEWS
Private equity investor Lighthouse to buy 25% in Bikaji
Foods.
Reliance MediaWorks completes 400th film.
TCIL is close to bagging a nearly Rs 200-cr. contract for
upgrading and maintaining Kuwait Telecommunica-
tions Co's landline and broadband networks.
Home ministry's clearances still pending for India
heads of Telenor, Sistema, Vodafone
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty Future closed in the red in the last trading session.
We advise selling around 6580-6600 levels with strict
stop loss of 6625 for the targets of 6550-6510.
4. DAILY REPORT
20th
MARCH 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RECOMMENDATIONS
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER(MAY) ABOVE 46050 TGTS 46250/46550 SL
45700
SELL SILVER(MAY) BELOW 45700 TGTS 45500/45150 SL
46050
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD(APR) ABOVE 30100 TGTS 30180/30280 SL 29980
SELL GOLD(APR) BELOW 29900 TGTS 29820/29720 SL 30000
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Gold hit its weakest in three weeks on Thursday as the US
dollar jumped on expectations the Federal Reserve could
end its bond-buying programme this fall, hurting the metal's
safe haven appeal as a hedge against inflation.
Even as gold imports fell substantially, those of silver
reached a record high in 2013. Sector estimates suggest
India imported around 5,500 tonnes of silver, 180 per cent
more than the previous year. The only earlier occasion
when India imported more than 5,000 tonnes of silver in a
year was in 2008. Traders needed to restock on silver; with
gold costlier, there was a sudden rise in demand for silver
jewellery, in India and in the export market. Also, prices
were lower â these averaged $23.85 an ounce in 2013,
from $31.17 in 2012, leading to higher demand. The price is
down as its industrial demand is lagging, due to an overall
slowing of economic activity; in 2014, so far, the average
silver price has been $20.53 an oz.
The price of copper fell 12% this year due to macroeco-
nomic worries on Chinese credit tightening, Russia-Ukraine
tensions, sluggish Japanese and US economic data. These
have led to an overall slide in industrial commodities. The
metal fell sharply 7.7% to hit $6,490 a tonne on the LME on
March 14. It marginally recovered on Monday to settle at
$6,550 a tonne. This is the lowest point since June 2010. Its
demand is being questioned further, as China, the world's
largest consumer, sees exports and inflation contracting
faster than expected.
The Reserve Bank has allowed five domestic private banks
to import gold. This could be a significant step towards eas-
ing of tough curbs on the metal imposed last year to cut the
country's trade deficit. The central bank has allowed im-
ports by HDFC Bank , Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, In-
dusInd Bank and YES Bank, officials at the respective banks.
Nickel prices firmed up marginally to Rs 994.80 per kg in
futures market on strong global cues and good industrial
demand. At MCX nickel for delivery in March gained Rs
4.90, or 0.48%, to Rs 994.80 per kg in business turnover of
4,014 lots. The metal for delivery in April rose by Rs 4.40, or
0.46%, to Rs 999.90 per kg in 383 lots. Apart from increased
domestic demand from alloy-makers, firming trend at LME
helped nickel futures to trade higher. Globally, nickel for
delivery in three months climbed as much as 0.7% to
$16,310 a tonne at the LME.
COMMODITY MCX
5. DAILY REPORT
20th
MARCH 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RECOMMENDATIONS
GUARSEED
BUY GUARSEED APR ABOVE 4785 TGTS 4815,4865 SL 4735
SELL GUARSEED APR BELOW 4720 TGTS 4690,4640 SL 4770
DHANIYA
BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 9440 TGTS 9470,9520 SL 9390
SELL DHANIYA APR BELOW 9380 TGTS 9350,9300 SL 9430
NCDEX
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
Castor Seed 4195 +0.29
Chana 3319 +1.78
Coriander 9390 -0.19
Cotton Seed Oilcake 1518 +1.20
Jeera 10070 +1.61
Maizeâ Feed/Industrial
Grade
1231 +1.82
Mustard seed 3494 +1.45
Soy Bean 4325 +1.21
Turmeric 6548 -0.52
NCDEX ROUNDUP
Cardamom futures fell marginally to Rs 859 per kg yester-
day as traders reduced holdings amid sluggish spot demand.
At the MCX, cardamom for May contract declined by Rs
4.30, or 0.49%, to Rs 859 per kg with a business turnover of
62 lots. The spice for delivery in April month fell by Rs 4.10,
or 0.48%, to Rs 829.70 per kg with a trading volume of 268
lots. Profit booking by speculators at existing levels and fall
in demand at spot markets put pressure on cardamom
prices in futures market.
Potato prices moved up by Rs 7.20 to Rs 1,182 per quintal in
futures trade yesterday, on increased spot demand against
restricted arrivals. At the MCX, potato for delivery in March
rose by Rs 7.20, or 0.61%, to Rs 1,182 per quintal, with trad-
ing volume of just five lots. The potato for delivery in April
also moved up by Rs 5.60, or 0.46% to Rs 1,204 per quintal
with a trade volume of 36 lots. Increased demand in the
spot market against tight supplies from producing regions
mainly pushed up potato prices at futures trade.
Indiaâs sugar output had fallen eight per cent this season
until Saturday, compared to a year before, due to the ear-
lier delay in commencing of cane crushing. Data from the
ISMA showed 19.4 million tonnes of output till last Satur-
day, vs 21.1 mt in the corresponding period last year. Isma
lowered its production forecast for this season by 5% to
23.8 mt, as compared to 25.1 mt in the previous one.
6. DAILY REPORT
20th
MARCH 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
USD/INR
SELL USD-INR BELOW 61.00 TGTS 60.87, 60.72 SL 61.28.
BUY USD-INR ABOVE 61.50 TGTS 61.63, 61.78 SL 61.22.
EUR/INR
SELL EUR-INR BELOW 84.88 TGTS 84.75, 84.60 SL 85.16.
BUY EUR-INR ABOVE 85.40 TGTS 85.54, 85.69 SL 85.12.
CURRENCY ROUNDUP
Currency in circulation grew 10% YoY in the week to March
14, lower than 10.6% a year earlier.
The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note in yesterdayâs trad-
ing session. The currency appreciated in initial part of the
trade due to surge in domestic markets at the record high
level. Further, inflow of foreign funds into the equity mar-
kets supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, fa-
vorable inflation data from the country in last week acted as
a positive factor. However, in later part of the trade cur-
rency erased its gains and depreciated on the back of dollar
demand from oil importers and its companies. Further,
strength in the DX in later part of the trade acted as a nega-
tive factor for the Indian Rupee. The Indian Rupee touched
an intra-day low of 61.20 and closed at 61.10 on Tuesday.
For the month of March 2014, FII inflows totaled at
Rs.6471.80 crores ($1056.57 million) as on 18th
March 2014.
Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.8590.40
crores ($1410.10 million) as on 18th
March 2014. From the
intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a
mixed note on the back of mixed market sentiments cou-
pled with strength in the DX will exert downside pressure in
the currency. Further, dollar demand from the importers
will act as a negative factor. While on the other hand, ease
of geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia can
cushion sharp fall or reversal in the currency.
The dollar shot up against most major currencies on
Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its monthly bond-
buying program to $55 billion from $65 bn, while comments
from Janet Yellen suggesting a possible timetable as to
when rates may rise spooked markets and sent investors
chasing safe-haven greenback positions. Fed bond pur-
chases spur recovery by suppressing interest rates, weaken-
ing the dollar in the process. In U.S. trading on Wednesday,
EUR/USD was down 0.75% at 1.3829. The Fed earlier said it
was leaving interest rates unchanged and reduced the
amount of bonds it buys in the open market each month to
$55 bn from $65 bn, both moves in line with expectations.
CURRENCY
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 61.0970 Yen-100 60.1800
Euro 85.0790 GBP 101.4149
7. DAILY REPORT
20th
MARCH 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
CALL REPORT
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
Date
Commodity/ Currency
Pairs
Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
19/03/14 MCX GOLD APR. BUY 30270 30350-30450 30150 NOT EXECUTED
19/03/14 MCX GOLD APR. SELL 30150 30070-29970 30270 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
19/03/14 MCX SILVER MAY BUY 46050 46250-46550 45700 NOT EXECUTED
19/03/14 MCX SILVER MAY SELL 45700 45500-45150 46050 BOOKED PROFIT
19/03/14 NCDEX GUARSEED APR.. BUY 4870 4900-4950 4820 NOT EXECUTED
19/03/14 NCDEX GUARSEED APR. SELL 4700 4670-4620 4750 NOT EXECUTED
19/03/14 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. BUY 9435 9465-9515 9385 BOOKED PROFIT
19/03/14 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. SELL 9380 9350-9300 9430 BOOKED PROFIT
19/03/14 EUR/INR MAR. SELL 84.88 84.74-84.60 85.18 NOT EXECUTED
19/03/14 EUR/INR MAR. BUY 85.34 85.48-85.62 85.04 NOT EXECUTED
19/03/14 JPY/INR MAR. SELL 59.93 59.80-59.66 60.21 NOT EXECUTED
19/03/14 JPY/INR MAR. BUY 60.65 60.78-60.92 60.37 NOT EXECUTED
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
19/03/14 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 6580-6600 6550-6510 6625 NOT EXECUTED
19/03/14 TATA MOTROS FUTURE SELL 385-388 381-375 392 CALL OPEN
19/03/14 ARVIND FUTURE BUY 148-150 152-155 145 BOOKED PROFIT
19/03/14 POLARIS FINANCIAL CASH BUY 150-155 165-170 140 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
18/03/14 LT FUTURE BUY 1250-1260 1290-1325 1220 CALL OPEN
18/03/14 SOMANI CERAMICS CASH BUY 155-160 170-185 145 CALL OPEN
14/03/14 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 6550-6540 6500-6450 6595 CALL OPEN
11/03/14 OBEROI REALITY CASH BUY 210 220-235 200 CALL OPEN
10/02/14 KRBL CASH BUY 45-46 50-54 40 CALL OPEN
8. DAILY REPORT
20th
MARCH 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, MARCH 17
8:30 am Empire state index March 5.4 4.5
9:15 am Industrial production Feb. 0.2% -0.3%
9:15 am Capacity utilization Feb. -- 78.5%
10 am Home builders' index March 50 46
TUESDAY, MARCH 18
8:30 am Consumer price index Feb. 0.1% 0.1%
8:30 am Core CPI Feb. 0.1% 0.1%
8:30 am Housing starts Feb. 913,000 880,000
8:30 am Building permits Feb. -- 945,000
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19
8:30 am Current account deficit 4Q -- -$95 bln
2 pm FOMC announcement $55 bln $65 bln
2:30 pm Yellen press conference
THURSDAY, MARCH 20
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 3-15 326,000 315,000
10 am Existing home sales Feb. 4.58 mln 4.62 mln
10 am Philly Fed March 4.3 -6.3
10 am Leading economic indicators Feb. 0.1% 0.3%
FRIDAY ,MARCH 21
8:30 am Producer price index, final demand Feb. 0.2% 0.2%