Presentación del Ministro de Economía y Finanzas Públicas, Luis Arce Catacora en la Universidad de Chicago en Estados Unidos sobre el Modelo Económico Social Comunitario Productivo. (En inglés)
Presentación del Ministro de Economía en la Universidad de Chicago (En inglés)
1. 1
THE MODEL THAT CHANGED
BOLIVIA’S ECONOMY
University of Chicago
Luis A. Arce Catacora
Minister of Economy and Public Finance of
the Plurinational State of Bolivia
April, 2015
2. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 2
CONTENT
I. General facts of Bolivia
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social
Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations
IV. Macroeconomic Results
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
V. Social Results
3. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 3
CONTENT
I. General facts of Bolivia
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social
Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations
IV. Macroeconomic Results
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
V. Social Results
4. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 4
Plurinational State of Bolivia: Geographical location
I. General facts of Bolivia
Location and area
Neighboring countries
Bolivia is located in the center of South America.
It’s area extent is 1,098,581 square kilometers.
It is bounded on the North and East by Brazil, on the South
by Argentina, on the West by Peru, on the Southeast by the
Paraguay and on the Southwest by Chile.
Phisiography
Andean: 28%, Subandean: 13%, Plains: 59%
Population Census 2012
10,027,254 people
Average annual population growth rate
(Census 2012)
2001 – 2012: 1.71%
Population density (Census 2012)
2012: 9.13 inhabitants per Km2
5,028,265 women
4,998,989 men
Head of State
Mr. Juan Evo Morales (From the January 22, 2006)
Minister of Economy
MSc. Luis Alberto Arce (From the January 23, 2006)
5. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 5
CONTENT
I. General facts of Bolivia
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social
Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations
IV. Macroeconomic Results
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
V. Social Results
6. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 6
1. Free market economy
2. Watching State
3. Model of Privatization
4. Primary-exporter model “export or die”
5. External demand’s dependence
6. Income concentration
7. Economy focused on private initiatives
8. Investment funding by external debt
9. Poverty and inequality
10. Objetive: The Control of Inflation
11. Dependence on multilateral institutions
for economic policy.
12. Non-existent fiscal and monetary policy
(recurrent fiscal deficits and
dollarization)
1. The State intervenes actively in the economy
2. Planner, entrepreneur, investor, regulator,
benefactor, promoter and banker State
3. Model of Nationalization
4. Model of Industrialization
5. Growth based on external and domestic
demand
6. Income redistribution by the State
7. The State promotes the plural economy (State,
Private sector, Cooperative and Comunitarian)
8. Investment funding by domestic savings
9. Further development, oportunities and social
movility.
10. Objective: Growth with income redistribution.
Stability is a social patrimony.
11. Soverign economic policy.
12. Fiscal surplus, social policy and de-
dollarization.
Neoliberal Economic Model
Differences between the neoliberalism and new Economic Model
Economic Social Comunitarian
Productive Model
7. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 7
3. INCOME REDISTRIBUTIVE MODEL: The economic surplus must be
redistributed mainly to the most needed people: conditional transfers (Bono
Juancito Pinto, Bono Juana Azurduy and Renta Dignidad), public
investment, inversely proportional wage increase, minimum wage increase,
cross subsidies and others.
2. APPROPRIATION OF THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS BY THE STATE OF
BOLIVIA: Bolivia now receives the economic surplus from its strategic
sectors and natural resources.
1. DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH BASED ON THE USE OF NATURAL
RESOURCES AIMING TO BENEFIT ALL BOLIVIANS: Generation of
larger economic surplus. Antithesis of the «Resource Curse theory».
4. INEQUITY AND POVERTY REDUCTION: The model has a social
visión, builds a more equal society with no poverty. More opportunities and
social mobility.
THE NEW MODEL FOUNDATIONS
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
8. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 8
• Hidrocarbons
• Mining
• Electricity
STRATEGIC
SECTORS
SURPLUS’
GENERATORS
Surplus INCOME AND
EMPLOYMENT
GENERATING
SECTOR
•Industry,
manufacturing and
craftsmanship
•Turism
•Farming
development
•Housing
•Trade, transport
and other services
REDISTRIBUTIVE STATE
REDISTRIBUTION OF INCOME:
Social Programs
• Bono Juancito Pinto
• Renta Dignidad
• Bono Juana Azurduy
POVERTY REDUCTION
ECONOMIC SOCIAL COMUNITARIAN PRODUCTIVE MODEL
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
9. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 9
Structuring the New Economic Social Communitarian Productive
Model
Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Quiroz Sillo
II. Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model
• This paper presents a theoretical model, supported by empirical
evidence, aiming to structure the main characteristics of the Bolivia’s new
Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model which has been
implemented since 2006.
• The work is based on a super-predator model and arrives to a solution by
applying Lokta-Volterra’s equations. Moreover, the empirical evidence is
obtained by running simulations and by estimating vector autoregressive
models.
• In the model, the economy is structured by two sectors, i) the strategic
sector, which main activity is the exploitation of non-renewable resources
and, ii) the income and labor generating sector. The underlying idea is
that by transferring resources from the strategic sector (its surplus)
towards the income and labor generating sector, it is possible to achieve
sustained economic growth pattern.
10. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 10
Structuring the New Economic Social Communitarian Productive
Model
Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Quiroz Sillo
II. Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model
• By running simulations of the model it is found that income and labor
generating sector’s surplus increases over time, whereas (due to the
availability’s limitation) strategic sector’s surplus decreases over time.
Moreover, the income and labor generating sector output’s share is
increasing over time.
• Therefore, it can be concluded that with the new Economic Social
Communitarian Productive Model the income and labor generating sector
is the one that generates sustained economic growth.
• Policy recommendations from the model suggest that the State must
assign the strategic sector’s surplus to the following: i) to expand the
country's productive base and to support industrialization and, ii) to
support private sector through improvements in domestic demand, which
will inject dynamism to the economy. With these policies the income and
labor generating sector can be developed.
GO
11. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 11
CONTENT
I. General facts of Bolivia
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social
Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations
IV. Macroeconomic Results
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
V. Social Results
12. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 12
• This paper aims to study the relationships between the distribution,
aggregate demand and long-term growth in Bolivia. The study is based on
a Kaleckian model of economic growth, since it recognizes the importance
of aggregate demand and distribution on growth.
• In this model there are two regimes (Demand and Productivity). To
estimate the prevailing regime in Bolivia´s economy, two econometric
methodologies are used with data from the period 1950-2012. Initially,
multivariate behavioral equations are used, subsequently an SVAR is
estimated.
• The results suggest that Bolivia’s economy follows a Demand Regime,
that is, by improving the distribution of resources to benefit workers
(reduction of the profit share) will increase aggregate demand, because
the increase in consumption will be greater than the investment
disincentive. Therefore, a better distribution generates higher growth.
Distribution, Aggregate Demand and Economic Growth in
Bolivia 1950 – 2012
David Quiroz Sillo and José Alberto Villegas Gómez
Distribution, Aggregate Demand and Economic Growth in Bolivia 1950-2012
GO
13. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 13
Commodity prices, fiscal policy and economic growth
2000-2013
Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Quiroz Sillo
Commodity prices, fiscal policy and economic growth 2000-2013
• This paper analyzes the effect of international commodity prices’ changes
on Bolivian output growth, through fiscal variables, in both the short and
long term.
• For the short-term analysis a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR)
is estimated. The results suggest that an international commodity prices’
shock has a positive impact on tax revenue and gross domestic product;
however, the effect on the latter is small.
• To study the long-term relationship a cointegration model is estimated
following the methodology proposed by Johansen-Juselius. The results
show that the main determinant of output in the long-term is public
investment. Interestingly, the effect of international commodity prices on
growth in the long term is small and not statistically significant.
• As conclusion, results suggest that resources coming from the strategic
sectors in Bolivia properly managed (e.g. public investment) can generate
growth and eliminate any external vulnerability to international commodity
prices’ changes.
GO
14. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 14
CONTENT
I. General facts of Bolivia
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social
Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations
IV. Macroeconomic Results
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
V. Social Results
15. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 15
(p) Preliminary
Source: National Statistics Institute (INE)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Real GDP growth, 1985 – 2014
(In percentage)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Sustained economic growth despite the global crisis
-1.7
-2.6
2.4
3.0
3.8
4.6
5.3
1.6
4.3
4.74.7
4.4
5.05.0
0.4
2.5
1.7
2.52.7
4.24.4
4.84.6
6.1
3.4
4.1
5.2
5.2
6.8
5.4
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013(p)
2014(p)
Average 1985 – 2005
3.0%
Average 2006 – 2014(p)
5.1%
16. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 16
2005 2014
* Data of Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
** Estimation of the International Monetary Fund
Source: National statistical institutes and central banks in each country
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
South America: Growth of real GDP, 2005 and 2014
(In percentage)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Higher economic growth despite the global crisis
17. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 17
Selected Countries: Growth rate of GDP trend
(Q4 2007 =100)
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Central Banks of selected countries
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Sustained economic growth despite the global crisis
18. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 18
Variation Index Commodity prices and
GDP growth Latin America and the Caribbean and of Bolivia, 1998 - 2014
(In percentage)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – High economic growth in a context of declining international prices
Source: International Monetary Fund and National Institute of Statistics for Bolivia
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
19. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 19
(p) Preliminary
Source: National Institute of Statistics (INE)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Incidence of domestic demand and net exports on GDP
1999 - 2014
(In percentage)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Economic growth based on domestic demand
Average 1997-2005
Domestic demand 3.0%
External demand 0.2%
Promedio 2006-2014
Domestic demand 5.6%
External demand -0.6%
-2.2
0.5
-1.8
4.5
-0.3
0.9
6.0
2.6
4.9
8.4
3.7 4.4
8.6
2.9
8.2
7.1
2.6 2.0
3.5
-2.0
3.0
3.3
-1.6
2.2
-0.3
-2.3
-0.3 -0.3
-3.4
2.3
-1.4 (1.6)
0.4
2.5
1.7
2.5 2.7
4.2 4.4
4.8 4.6
6.1
3.4
4.1
5.2 5.2
6.8
5.4
-3.5
-1.5
0.5
2.5
4.5
6.5
8.5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013(p)
2014(p)
Domestic demand External demand GDP growth
20. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 20
Bolivia: Nominal Gross Domestic Product
1986 – 2014
(Millions of USD)
Bolivia: Gross Domestic Product per cápita
1986 – 2014
(USD)
(p) Preliminary
Source: National Institute of Statistics (INE)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Nominal and per cápita Gross Domestic Product
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Sustained increase of the economy size and income per capita
9,525
32,770
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013(p)
2014(p) 1,010
2,922
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013(p)
2014(p)
21. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 21
(*) Public investment planned in the General State Budget (PGE)
Source: Vice Ministry of Public Investment and External Financing (VIPFE)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Executed public investment by economic sector, 1997-2015*
(Millions of USD)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Records of public investment boosts economic growth
Average 1997 – 2005
USD 569 millones
Average 2006 – 2014
USD 2,174 millones
481 551 650 694 725 960 1,158
1,503
1,654
2,498
184 232
551
810
1,016
1,148
1,768
284
427 475 472
566
743
1,084
1,448
1,687
548 505 531 583 639 585 500 602 629
879 1,005
1,351
1,439
1,521
2,182
2,897
3,781
4,507
6,179
0
1,083
2,167
3,250
4,333
5,417
6,500
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(PGE)
Infrastructure Productive Social Multisectoral
22. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 22
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Records of public investment boosts economic growth
South America: Public investment as percentage of GDP, 2005 - 2015
6.6
17.4
3.4
4.0
2.5
6.8
4.7
15.0
1.2
3.2
1.8
5.0
4.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(e) 2015(e)
Bolivia(*) Uruguay Chile
Colombia Peru Ecuador
Argentina Brazil Paraguay
(*) Source for Bolivia is Vice Ministry of Public Investment and External Financing (VIPFE)
(e) Estimated by FMI
Source: International Monetary Fund (Article IV), Central Bank of Ecuador and Ministry of Finance of Argentina
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
23. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 23
Section Project's name investment
(Million USD)
Hydrocarbons
Río Grande Liquid Separation Plant 183
Gran Chaco Liquid Separation Plant 609
Bulo Bulo Ammonia and Urea Plant 863
Propylene and Polypropylene Plant 1,700
Ethylene and Polyethylene Plant 1,760
Liquefied Natural Gas - LNG "Virtual Pipeline" 146
New Catalytic Reforming Units in Isomerization 205
Mining
Industrialization of Lithium and Potassium Chloride Production Phases I, II, III 509
Installing the smelting furnace Ausmelt 40
Food
LACTEOSBOL (4 dairy processors, 3 processors 1 Floor Liofilizadora citrus fruit) 18
Industrial Plant Sugar and Derivatives (EASBA) 215
Strategic Production Company Fertilizers and Fertilizer 7
Energy
9 Power Plants (Santa Cruz, Cbba, La Paz, Beni, Tarija) 621
3 Hydroelectric Plants (Cochabamba, La Paz) 757
1 Amusement and one wind power plant Solar Power (Cochabamba, Pando) 19
1 Geothermal Plant (Potosí) 260
Others
Tupac Katari satellite 302
Cable Transmission System "My cable car" La Paz y El Alto 235
Assembly plant Computer Equipment “Quipus” 61
Industrialization Projects
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Industrialization of natural resources
24. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 24
2005 2014
Source: International Monetary Fund
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
South America: Total investment as percentage of GDP
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Highest total investment by public investment
25. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 25
(1) Peru, the average corresponds to the period 2000-2005.
(2) Uruguay, the average corresponds to the period 1999 to 2005.
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), for Bolivia official data.
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Average 1997 - 2005 Average 2006 - 2014
Latin America: Fiscal Balance
(As percentage of GDP)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – The second country with the highest fiscal surplus
26. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 26
Source: The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Average 1998 - 2005 Average 2006 – 2013
Latin American: Tax Burden
(As percentage of GDP)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Fourth place in the tax burden
27. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 27
( e) Estimated
Nota: The most important thresholds are 60% for the Maastricht Treaty (European Union) and 50% for CAN (Andean Community of Nations).
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Economic Outlook, October 2014
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
2005 2014(e)
Latin America: Total public debt, 2005 and 2014
(As percentage of GDP)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Public debt reduction to sustainable levels
28. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 28
Average 1997 - 2005 Average 2006 - 2014
Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and International Monetary Fund
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
South America: Current account (% of GDP)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Solid external profile
29. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 29
(p) ]Preliminary
Source: Central Bank of Bolivia
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Foreign Direct Investment, 1985 - 2014
(Millions of USD)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Higher foreing investment than in the privatization period
PRIVATIZATION PERIOD
Average 1997 – 2005:
USD 789 millions
Average 2006 – 2014:
USD 1,238 millions
Gross Foreign Direct Investment Net Foreign Direct Investment
35%
4%
PRIVATIZATION PERIOD
Average 1985 – 2005:
USD 296 millons
Average 2006 – 2014:
USD 729 millions
65%
30. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 30
(*) Data for 2015 is up to April 10th
Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and Central Banks of each country
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Central Bank’s Net International Reserves, 1976 – 2015*
(Millions of USD)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – High levels of reserves
10-Apr
31. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 31
Source: Financial System’s Supervision Authority (ASFI) and Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Financial System Deposits, 1997 – 2014
(Millions of USD)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Population´s saving capacity has increased
32. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 32
85%
Source: Financial System’s Supervision Authority (ASFI)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Number of Deposits Accounts in the Financial System,
by stratification amount, 2005 – 2014
(Thousands of accounts)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – The accounts number is almost four times the 2005´s level
33. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 33
Source: Financial System’s Supervision Authority (ASFI)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: Financial System Credits Portfolio and NPL rate, 1997 – 2014
(Millions of USD and percentage)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Upward credit trend due to economic dynamism
34. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 34
Selected Countries: Non-Performing Loans (NPL) Rate
(In percentage)
2005 2014
Source: World Bank and Financial System’s Supervision Authority (ASFI)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
IV. Macroeconomic Results – Bolivia is the country with the lowest non-performing loan rate
35. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 35
DOLLARIZED ECONOMY DE-DOLLARIZATION
Source: Financial System Supervisory Authority (ASFI) and Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Bolivia: De-Dollarization of Deposits and Credits, 1997 – 2014
(In percentage)
IV. Macroeconomic Results – De-Dollarization contributes to solidity the financial system
36. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 36
CONTENT
I. General facts of Bolivia
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social
Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations
IV. Macroeconomic Results
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
V. Social Results
37. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 37
(p) Preliminary
Source:(*) National Statistics Institute (INE); Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance.
Urban open unemployment rate
(In percentage)
V. Social Results – Unemployment rate reduction
2005 2013(p)
Latin America: Unemployment rate
(In percentage)
Bolivia: Urban open unemployment rate
1999 – 2013 (p)
(In percentage)
14.3
12.4
12.2
11.6
9.8
9.6
9.2
8.5
8.1
7.6
4.7
0 10 20
Colombia
Venezuela
Uruguay
Argentina
Brasil
Perú
Chile
Ecuador
Bolivia
Paraguay
Mexico
7.2
7.5
8.5
8.7
8.7
8.1
8.0
7.7
4.4
4.9
3.8
3.2
4.0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012(p)
2013(p)
10.6
8.1
7.8
7.1
6.7
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.4
4.7
4.0
0 5 10 15
Colombia
Paraguay
Venezuela
Argentina
Uruguay
Perú
Chile
Mexico
Brazil
Ecuador
Bolivia
38. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 38
19.2
18.8
12.0
9.8
9.1
5.9
4.7
2.5
1.7
0.9
0 10 20 30
Paraguay
Bolivia
Ecuador
Venezuela
Colombia
Brazil
Peru
Chile
Argentina(a)
Uruguay
38.2
27.6
21.4
21.2
15.9
13.9
10.7
9.6
4.1
3.2
0 20 40 60
Bolivia
Paraguay
Peru
Ecuador
Venezuela
Colombia
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Chile
(a) Near date to 2012
(p) Preliminary
Source: National Statistics Institute (INE) for Bolivia; Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance.
Bolivia: Extreme poverty, 1999 – 2013(p)
(In percentage)
V. Social Results – Outstanding extreme poverty reduction
Bolivia: Extreme poverty, 1999 – 2013(p)
(In percentage)
2005 2013
Latin America: Extreme poverty
(In percentage)
40.7
45.2
38.8
39.5
34.5
38.2
37.7
37.7
30.1
26.1
20.9
21.6
18.8
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003-2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012(p)
2013(p)
39. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 39
Bolivia: Gini Index, 1999 – 2012
(Values between 0 and 1)
V. Social Results – Greater equity on income distribution
Bolivia: Gini Index, 1999 – 2012(p)
(Values between 0 and 1)
Latin America: Gini Index
(Values between 0 and 1)
2005 2012(p)
(p) Premilinary
(a) Datum for 2006
(b) Datum for 2004
(c) Datum for 2007
(d) Datum for 2011
(Source: National Statistics Institute (INE); Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance.
0.61
0.60
0.57
0.55
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.52
0.50
0.49
0.49
0.47
0.46
0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70
Brazil
Bolivia
Rep. Dominicana
Colombia
Ecuador
Panama
Mexico
Paraguay
Chile(a)
Peru(c)
El Salvador(b)
Venezuela
Costa Rica
Uruguay(c)
0.57
0.55
0.54
0.53
0.52
0.52
0.50
0.49
0.47
0.47
0.45
0.44
0.41
0.38
0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
Brazil
Paraguay(d)
Colombia
Panama(d)
Rep. Dominicana
Chile(d)
Costa Rica
Mexico
Ecuador
Bolivia
Peru
El Salvador
Venezuela
Uruguay
0.58
0.63
0.59
0.61 0.60
0.59
0.56
0.53
0.50
0.46
0.47
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
1999
2000
2001
2002
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012(p)
40. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 40
128
35
157
42
17
63
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Nacional Urbano Rural
2005
2013(p)
(p) Preliminary
Source: Unit Analysis of Social and Economic Policy (UDAPE) information from Household Surveys (EH) National Statistics Institute (INE)
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance.
Bolivia: Income ratio between the richest 10% and the
poorest 10%, 2005 – 2013
(Frequency)
V. Social Results – Reduction of the gap between rich and poor
41. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 41
CONTENT
I. General facts of Bolivia
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model
III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social
Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations
IV. Macroeconomic Results
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
V. Social Results
42. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 42
Source: Fitch Rating, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Standard & Poor’s Justification:
Sustained economic growth
Permanent fiscal and current
account surplus
Decrease of public debt
Creditor international investment
position
Record level of international
reserves
Increasing economic stability
Fitch Ratings Moody’s
Historic: Standard & Poor's grants a rating "BB" to Bolivia
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
43. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 43
* Date 2013
Source: World Economic Forum
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
2005 2014
South America: Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), 2005 and 2014
(Score 1 - 7)
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
Percentage points of difference
between 2014 and 2005 in GCI
-0.39
-0.30
-0.24
0.09
0.16
0.23 0.26
0.38 0.41
0.59
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
Venezuela
Argentina
Chile
Uruguay
Colombia
Paraguay
Brazil
Bolivia
Peru
Ecuador*
3.36
3.39
3.59
3.71
3.83
3.95
4.07
4.08
4.09
4.84
2 3 4 5
Paraguay
Bolivia
Ecuador
Venezuela
Peru
Uruguay
Colombia
Brazil
Argentina
Chile
3.32
3.59
3.77
3.79
4.04
4.18
4.23
4.24
4.34
4.60
2 3 4 5
Venezuela
Paraguay
Bolivia
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador*
Colombia
Peru
Brazil
Chile
44. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 44
* Date 2013
Source: World Economic Forum
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
South America: Global Competitiveness Index,
Category: Macroeconomic environment (GCI-ME), 2005 and 2014
(Score 1 - 7)
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
2005 2014
Percentage points of difference
between 2014 and 2005 in GCI-ME
-1.55
-0.45
0.02 0.10
0.52 0.53
0.76
1.11
1.41 1.58
-1.8
-1.3
-0.8
-0.3
0.2
0.7
1.2
1.7
Venezuela
Argentina
Ecuador*
Chile
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Colombia
Peru
Bolivia
3.76
3.89
3.97
4.48
4.48
4.54
4.67
4.68
5.22
5.78
2 4 6
Uruguay
Bolivia
Brazil
Paraguay
Peru
Colombia
Argentina
Venezuela
Ecuador
Chile
3.13
4.22
4.49
4.52
5.01
5.24
5.47
5.65
5.88
5.89
2 4 6
Venezuela
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Paraguay
Ecuador*
Bolivia
Colombia
Chile
Peru
45. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 45
92
92
100
100
108
110
116
130
136
136
140
0 50 100 150
Ecuador
Mexico
Bolivia
Paraguay
Colombia
América Latina
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Peru
Uyurguay
47
57
75
80
84
95
97
116
117
124
125
0 50 100 150
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
América Latina
Ecuador
Uyurguay
Mexico
Peru
Colombia
Bolivia
Paraguay
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation, Economic Survey of Latin America - November 2007 for October 2005 and the Economic Survey of Latin America February 2014
Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance
Latin America: The Economic Climate Index
(In points)
VI. New Bolivia’s international image
Oct - 2005 Oct - 2014 Jan - 15
57
63
75
80
84
85
90
100
110
127
131
0 50 100 150
Brazil
Argentina
América Latina
Ecuador
Mexico
Chile
Colombia
Uyurguay
Bolivia
Paraguay
Peru
46. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance The University of Chicago – April 2015 46
Thanks…