The EY Real Estate Asset Investment trend indicator shows increasing interest for Belgian real estate as sound investment in 2014. More findings included.

1. Real Estate
Assets Investment Trend Indicator
Belgium 2014

2. Agenda
Real Estate Assets Investment
Trend Indicator
Belgium 2014
About the trend indicator 2014
Market outlook for Belgium 2014
Investment strategy for Belgium 2014
European outlook for 2014
Page 2

3. Key findings 2014 for Belgium
Attractiveness
Capital
markets
Transaction
market
Price trends
Sellers, buyers
Impediments
A high proportion of respondents (80%) see Belgium as an
attractive or very attractive location to invest in real
estate.
Alternative debt providers as insurance companies, pension
funds or debt funds will become more important in 2014.
Basel III-effects on classic bank real estate loans will
probably gain momentum.
Prices in prime locations tend to increase for all types of
use. Decreasing prices in peripheral areas.
Seller groups: international funds, corporates and
opportunity/PE funds. Buyer groups: opportunity/PE funds
and private/family offices.
A price mismatch between buyers and sellers is viewed as
the major barrier for deal flows.
Use types
Preferred
regions
Page 3
Strongest investment focus on retail and residential
properties.
The preferred cities for investment are Brussels (office
and residential) and Namur (retail).

4. Our trend indicator covers a broad range of investor
groups in Belgium
Trend indicator: real estate investment market
►
►
The different types of investor
groups surveyed:
The trend indicator is based on a survey of 20 companies that have been
active in the Belgian property market in recent years.
►
►
The survey focuses on two main areas:
Banks
Closed-ended real estate funds
►
►
Real estate stock
corporations/REITs
►
Outlook on the strategies that Belgian investors will pursue in the
coming year.
►
Institutional investors
►
Opportunity/private equity
funds
►
Insurance companies
►
Housing companies
►
►
Assessment of the Belgian real estate investment market for the
year to come.
Other investment vehicles
In addition to Belgium, this survey was conducted simultaneously in 14
other European countries.
Background
►
►
Page 4
EY has conducted this survey in
Belgium since 2012.
20 investors reported on their
expectations for the coming year.
Objectives
►
►
Assessment of the Belgian real estate
investment market for the year to come.
Outlook on the strategies that Belgian
investors will pursue in the coming year.
Method
►
►
The trend indicator is based on a survey
conducted by Valid Research in November
and December 2013.
The feedback from the interviews forms
the results of the real estate trend
indicator.

5. The survey was also conducted in other European
countries
European trend indicator: real estate investment market
►
Participants from 15 European countries took part in the survey.
►
All surveys took place in November and December 2013.
►
Feedback was gathered from more than 500 companies operating in the
real estate market in the surveyed countries.
►
Those countries that have participated are listed below.
►
►
►
►
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Page 5
Participating
countries
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Italy
►
►
►
►
►
Luxembourg
The Netherlands
Poland
Russia
Spain
►
►
►
►
►
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom

6. A majority sees Belgium as an attractive investment
location…
Key messages
►
►
The majority of the
respondents (80%) view Belgium
as an attractive or very
attractive location to invest in
real estate for 2014.
Last year the confidence in the
Belgian market was even
stronger. 95% stated that
Belgium was attractive or very
attractive.
Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate
investments
55%
25%
20%
Very attractive
Attractive
Original question – “How do you rate Belgium’s overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2014?“
Page 6
Less attractive

7. … particularly compared with other European
countries
Key messages
►
Compared with other European
countries, again the majority of
respondents rate Belgium as an
attractive or very attractive
investment location (79%, 2013:
85%).
Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate
investments
compared with other European countries
58%
21%
Very attractive
21%
Attractive
Less attractive
Original question – “How do you rate Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2014 compared with other European countries?”
Page 7

8. Influence of the capital markets in 2014…
Key messages
►
►
Alternative sources such as
insurance companies, pension
funds or debt funds acting as
debt providers will become
more important in Belgium in
2014 (90% agree, 2013: 50%).
Interest rates for real estate
loans will probably rise (89%
agree).
►
The capital markets seems to be
ready for real estate IPOs and
equity increases (85%
agree, 2013: 60%).
►
Fear of high inflation also
drives demand for real estate
(74% agree, 2013: 80%).
"Alternative debt providers (insurance
"Alternative debt providers (insurance
companies, pension and debt funds, mezzanine
companies, pension and debt funds, mezzanine
providers) will increasingly provide financing for real
providers) will increasingly provide…
estate investments"
60%
"Interest rates for real estate loans will rise
in 2014"
30%
32%
"Interest rates for real estate loans will rise in 2014"
57%
11%
"The capital market in 2014 will be attractive
"The capital market in 2014 will be attractive for real
for real estate IPOs and equity capital
estate IPOs and equity capital increases"
30%
55%
15%
increases"
"Due toto lower loan-to-value ratios, demand for
"Due lower loan-to-value ratios, demand
mezzanine financing will increase 2014"
for mezzanine financing will increase in in 2014"
"Fear of high inflation in the medium term will
"Fear of high inflation in the medium term will drive
drive investors towards the real estate
investors towards the real estate market"
market"
33%
45%
11%
Strongly agree
63%
Agree
22%
21%
Disagree
Original question – “Which of the following statements about Belgium’s real estate financial/ capital market in 2014 do you agree with?”
Page 8
10%
5%
Strongly disagree

9. … on real estate investment activity
Key messages
►
Basel III will have consequences
for the mortgage business but
nevertheless the classic bank
real estate loans are gaining
momentum (72%, 2013: 55%).
►
The CMBS market could revive
in 2014 (60% agree, 2013: 55%).
►
Belgian real estate investors
anticipate an increasing supply
of real estate (55%, 2013: 50%).
►
The Eurozone debt crisis will
have considerably less impact
on the Belgian real estate
market compared to last year
(2014: 50%, 2013: 80%).
"Basel III regulation will make real estate
"Basel III regulation will make real estate loans less
loans for attractive for banks and lead to
attractiveless banks and lead to greater restraint in
greater restraint in the the mortgage business"
mortgage business"
11%
61%
"The commercial mortgage backed securities
"The commercial mortgage-backed securities market
7%
will revive in 2014"
market will revive in 2014"
"Supply in the realin the real estate market will
"Supply estate market will increase in 2014
(maturity of
increase in 2014 structured debt, disposal of
(maturity of structured
nonperforming loans, liquidation of open-ended
debt, disposal of non-performing…
funds)"
"The euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will
"The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will increase
increase investments by European investors in
investments by European investors in the Belgian real
estate
the XX real estate markets" markets"
"There will be an increase inin consolidationreal
an increase consolidation of of
"There will
estate companies
real estate companies in 2014" in 2014"
22%
53%
15%
5%
33%
40%
Strongly agree
50%
22%
Agree
45%
Disagree
Only a minority (44%, 2013: 65%)
believes that Belgium will face
increasing consolidations (M&A
activity) – “Which of
Original questionthis year.the following statements about Belgium’s real estate financial/capital market in 2014 do you agree with?”
►
Page 9
7%
45%
45%
22%
6%
11%
Strongly disagree

10. The Belgian real estate transaction market (1/2)
Key messages
►
►
►
Green building standards will
(90%, 2013: 75%) even play an
increasing role for existing
properties.
More portfolio deals are
foreseen in the commercial
real estate sector
(85% agree, 2013: 55%).
Transaction volume is expected
to increase (83%, 2013: 65%).
►
Increased investment activity by
international real estate
investors seems to be likely
(63%, 2013: 55%).
60%
30%
10%
investment properties"
"There be more commercial real estate portfolio
"There will will be more commercial real estate
deals in 2014 to 2013"
portfolio deals in 2014 compared than in 2013"
10%
“Overall, transaction volume in 2014 will
“Overall, the transaction volume in 2014 will exceed
exceed the level the level seen in 2013"
seen in 2013"
"The "The average size of realdeals will increase in
average size of real estate estate deals will
2014”
increase in 2014”
"Investment activity by foreign real estate
"Investment activity by foreign real estate investors in
Belgium will increase compared to 2013"
investors in XX will increase compared with 2013"
75%
22%
15%
61%
10%
55%
16%
11%
6%
35%
47%
32%
5%
The average deal size is likely
to increase in 2014 (65%, 2013:
55%).
►
"Green-building standards will play a more
"Greenimportant role with respectmore important
building standards will play a to existing
role with regard to existing investment properties"
Strongly agree
Agree
Disagree
Original question – “Which of the following statements about Belgium’s real estate transaction market in 2014 do you agree with?”
Page 10
Strongly disagree

11. The Belgian real estate transaction market (2/2)
Key messages
►
►
►
►
The majority of respondents
expects a revival of more risky
investments (56% agree, 2013:
45%).
Transparency of information on
the Belgian market could
obviously be improved since
only about half of the
respondents (52%) are satisfied
with the current situation.
It is uncertain whether AIFM
will lead to an increasing
consolidation in the real estate
funds industry (50% agree, 2013:
55%)
Speculative project
developments are not widely
anticipated (only 25%
agree, 2013: 40%).
"The share of value-add and opportunistic
"The share of value-add and opportunistic investments
6%
investments will increase in 2014" 2014"
will increase in
"The quantity and quality of information Belgian
"The quantity and quality of information on theon the
XX real estate transaction marketis sufficient for
real estate transaction market is sufficient
for investmentinvestment appraisal purposes"
appraisal purposes"
"The introduction of the Directive will lead to
"The introduction of the AIFM AIFM Directive will
lead to increasing consolidation in the real
increasing consolidation in the real estate funds
industry"
estate funds industry"
"Speculative project developments will
return in 2014"
50%
21%
8%
"Speculative project developments will return in 2014" 5%
33%
31%
16%
42%
Strongly agree
60%
Agree
Disagree
Original question – “Which of the following statements about Belgium’s real estate transaction market in 2014 do you agree with?”
Page 11
32%
33%
20%
11%
17%
15%
Strongly disagree

12. Price trend expectations vary greatly depending on
location and type of use (1/3)
Key messages
►
►
►
Office
Retail
Opinions concerning prices of
office buildings in prime
locations vary: one third of the
respondents expects either
increasing (33%), stable (34%) or
decreasing prices (33%).
Offices in secondary locations
(72%) and peripheral areas (80%)
are expected to decrease in
price.
The majority expects retail
properties to decrease in price
in prime locations (60%) as well
as in secondary locations (69%)
and peripheral areas (86%).
86%
80%
72%
69%
60%
40%
33%
34%
33%
31%
21% 20%
14%
7%
0%
Increase
Prime locations
0% 0%
No change
Secondary locations
Decrease
Increase
Peripheral areas
At the same time, there is a
significant share of respondents
anticipating increasing prices
for retail properties in prime
locations “How do
Original question –(40%). you expect purchase prices in Belgium to develop in 2014 based on the type of use and location?”
►
Page 12
0%
No change
Decrease

13. Price trend expectations vary greatly depending on
location and type of use (2/3)
Key messages
►
►
►
Residential
Hotel
100%
Residential properties are
expected to decrease to a
significant extent in prime
locations (50%), secondary
locations (73%) and peripheral
areas (100%).
At the same time, half of the
respondents anticipate at least
stable (25%) or increasing prices
(25%) for residential properties
in prime locations.
Regarding hotel
buildings, decreasing prices in
all locations seem almost sure
(100%).
100% 100% 100%
73%
50%
25% 27%
25%
0% 0%
Increase
Prime locations
0%
No change
Secondary locations
0% 0% 0%
Decrease
0% 0% 0%
Increase
No change
Peripheral areas
Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices in Belgium to develop in 2014 based on the type of use and location?”
Page 13
Decrease

14. Page 14

15. Price trend expectations vary greatly depending on
location and type of use (3/3)
Key messages
►
►
Industrial
100%
The vast majority of
respondents anticipate a
decreasing price level for
industrial buildings in all
locations.
83%
66%
Secondary locations are
expected to suffer least with
one third of the respondents
anticipating stable (27%) or
increasing prices (7%) here.
27%
17%
7%
0%
0%
Increase
Prime locations
0%
No change
Secondary locations
Decrease
Peripheral areas
Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices in Belgium to develop in 2014 based on the type of use and location?”
Page 15

16. Which seller groups will be the most active in 2014?
Seller groups
Key messages
►
►
International funds (85%, 2013:
75%), corporates (85%, 2013: 75%)
and opportunity/PE funds
(85%, 2013: 80%) are expected to
be the most active seller
groups in 2014.
In contrast to last year, banks
form the only group that will
be cautious according to the
respondents (only 40% expect
banks to play an active
role, 2013: 75%).
Seller groups
Other international funds
Corporates (non-property)
25%
15%
Opportunity/PE funds
Open-ended funds (real estate)
Banks
33%
21%
45%
15%
22%
60%
45%
25%
25%
30%
67%
11%
33%
52%
40%
Very active
Original question – “How active do you think the following seller groups will be in the Belgian real estate market in 2014?”
Page 16
16%
68%
REOC/REITs
Closed-ended funds (real estate)
15%
52%
11%
Insurance companies
15%
70%
32%
Residential real estate companies
Public sector
60%
37%
60%
Moderately active
Cautios

17. Which buyer groups will be the most active in 2014?
Key messages
►
►
Opportunity/PE funds (84%, 2013:
65%) and family offices (83%,
2013: 65%) are expected to be
among the most active buyer
groups in 2014.
Again, in clear contrast to last
year, banks are seen as cautious
players in 2014 (only 25% see an
active role, 2013: 80%).
Buyer groups
Opportunity/PE funds
11%
73%
Private/ family office
33%
Insurance companies
50%
40%
Residential real estate companies
15%
Banks
25%
55%
30%
49%
20%
38%
75%
Very active
Original question – ”How active do you think the following buyer groups will be in the Belgian real estate market in 2014?”
Page 17
22%
60%
13%
5%
20%
56%
15%
Closed-ended funds (real estate)
20%
65%
22%
Open-ended funds (real estate)
20%
60%
15%
Sovereign wealth funds
17%
40%
20%
Other international funds
REOC/REITs
16%
Moderately active
Cautios

18. Which will be the greatest impediments to deal flows
in 2014?
Key messages
►
►
►
A price mismatch between
buyers and sellers is viewed as
the major barrier for deal
flows in 2014 (75%, 2013: 75%), no
change to last year.
The level of equity required by
debt providers is another big
hurdle (65%, 2013: 70%).
Transaction impediments
Price mismatch between buyers and sellers
Level of equity required
Limited availability of senior debt funding
Limited availability of junior debt funding
20%
55%
25%
40%
30%
30%
21%
20%
30%
5%
5%
5%
37%
37%
35%
5%
The limited availability of debt
funding remains an impediment,
though not as much as last year:
►
senior debt funding (60%,
2013: 80%)
►
junior debt funding (58%,
2013: 70%)
Strongly agree
Agree
Original question – “Do you agree or disagree that the following will be impediments to Belgium's deal flow in 2014?”
Page 18
Disagree
Strongly disagree

19. Bank actions to deal with distressed loans
Key messages
►
Selling distressed loans seems
to be the most common way to
deal with them (88%).
►
An increase in debt-for-equityswaps is expected (72%, 2013:
55%).
►
►
Enforcements will continue to
play a certain role with regard
to distressed loans, too (57%,
2013: 65%).
The extension of the repayment
period has become less popular
compared to last year (42%,
2013: 65%).
Approaches to dealing with distressed loans
Sale of loans
71%
Increase in debt-for-equity swaps
6% 6%
72%
Increased enforcement
14%
Increase in consensual restructuring deals
15%
28%
43%
40%
Increase in replacement of real estate asset
managers
Extend repayment period
5%
36%
21%
7%
35%
42%
Strongly agree
Original question – “Which actions do you expect banks to take regarding distressed loans in Belgium?“
Page 19
17%
10%
42%
21%
Agree
37%
Disagree
11%
21%
Strongly disagree

20. The following types of use will be popular with
investors in 2014
Key messages
►
Retail properties will have the
highest focus for investors (22%
strong, 2013: 25%) or at least a
moderate one (22%, 2013: 30%).
►
Strong or moderate investment focus
Office real estate has lost even
more significance compared to
last year (34% strong and
moderate, 2013: 50%).
►
Interest in residential
properties has not changed
significantly (45% strong and
moderate, 2013: 40%).
28%
22%
22%
17%
17%
17%
6%
6%
Strong
Moderate
Office
Retail
Residential
Other
Original question – “Compared to 2013, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2014?“
Page 20

21. The following types of use will not be as popular
with investors in 2014
Key messages
►
Low or no investment focus
88%
It seems that many Belgian
investors do not have a clear
focus on a special type of use.
44%
38%
39%
28%
17%
11%
0%
Low
No focus
Office
Retail
Residential
Other
Original question – “Compared to 2013, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2014?“
Page 21

22. Brussels preferred place for offices, small retail
focus on Namur
Key messages
►
Brussels apparently is the most
attractive city for office
investments (30%, 2013:35%).
Other Belgian cities attract a
lower demand for offices.
Among those, Ghent is in the
lead with 10% (2013: 10%).
►
Altogether, the differences in
retail location demand is not
spread apart very much. Namur
has the highest retail focus with
15%, 2013: 25%).
Office and retail focus
30%
0%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
5%
0%
0%
5%
5%
Office
Brussels
Namur
5%
5%
10%
0%
Retail
Liège
Leuven
Antwerp
Ghent
Mons
Other
Original question – “Which primary locations in Belgium will you be focusing your investments on in 2014?“
Page 22

23. Brussels, Liege, Ghent, Antwerp most sought after
for residential real estate
Key messages
►
Residential and no focus
100%
For residential investments,
several cities are attractive:
Brussels (35%, 2013:5%), Liege
(20%, 2013: 25%), Ghent (20%, 2013:
30%) and Antwerp (15%, 2013: 20%).
90%
80%
75%
80%
75%
65%
35%
35%
20%
5%
15%
5%
20%
5%
0%
Residential
Brussels
Namur
No focus
Liège
Leuven
Antwerp
Ghent
Mons
Other
Original question – “Which primary locations in Belgium will you be focusing your investments on in 2014?“
Page 23

24. Page 24

25. Most attractive exit options for real estate
investments in 2014
Key messages
►
The direct sale of single assets
is anticipated to be the most
favourable exit option in 2014
(39%).
►
Planned exit options
In the year before, trade sales
had already gained significant
importance as an exit channel.
39%
39%
11%
11%
11%
6%
0%
Direct sale - Single asset
Direct sale - Portfolio
Closed-ended funds
No exit Public real estate funds
REOC/REIT (IPO)
Original question – “What will be the most attractive exit options for your real estate investments in 2014? (Multiple answers possible)”
Page 25
Other

26. Impact of the digital world on real estate
Key messages
►
►
Impact of the digital world on demand for space
According to the respondents,
different impacts for the
individual types of use will
occur due to the ongoing
digitalization of the world.
The office sector will face a
decreasing impact concerning
space demand (61%), residential
real estate will face no
changes (63%) and retail real
estate shows a mixed trend.
63%
61%
47%
33%
29%
34%
33%
28%
24%
21%
16%
11%
Increase
No change
Decrease
Office
Original question – “What impact will the digital world have on space demand for the following property types?”
Page 26
Retail
Residential
Industrial

27. Impact of the digital world on real estate
Key messages
►
►
The most obvious impact is
expected with regard to online
suppliers replacing local
stores in weak locations (83%).
On the other hand, e-commercesuppliers could emerge as
additional tenants for retail
space (67%).
Impact of the digital world on demand for space
"Online will replace over-the-counter retail
"Online supplierssuppliers will replace over-thecounter retail stores in weak locations"
stores in weak locations"
28%
"E-Commerce suppliers will emerge as tenants for
"E-Commerce suppliers will appear as tenants
retail space"
for retail space"
67%
17%
33%
"Brokers will lose market share for renting/
"Brokers will lose market share for renting/selling
selling residential real estate due to Internet
residential real estate due to Internet listing services"
22%
44%
28%
6%
listing services"
"Home office working is out-dated and staff
"Home office working is out-dated and staff will move
back to the workplace"
will move back to the workplace"
18%
Strongly agree
Original question – “What impact will the digital world have on space demand?”
Page 27
55%
47%
Agree
35%
Disagree
Strongly disagree

28. Outlook for Belgium (1/2)
Attractiveness
►
The majority of the respondents (80%) view
Belgium as an attractive or very attractive
location to invest in real estate for 2014.
Compared with other European countries, again the
majority of respondents rate Belgium as an
attractive or very attractive investment location
(79%, 2013: 85%).
Real estate financial/capital market
Purchase price expectations
►
Opinions concerning prices of office buildings in
prime locations vary: one third of the respondents
expects either increasing (33%), stable (34%) or
decreasing prices (33%).
►
The majority expects retail properties to
decrease in price in prime locations (60%) as well as
in secondary locations (69%) and peripheral areas
(86%).
►
Residential properties are expected to decrease to
a significant extent in prime locations
(50%), secondary locations (73%) and peripheral
areas (100%).
►
►
Alternative sources such as insurance
companies, pension funds or debt funds acting as
debt providers will become more important in
Belgium in 2014 (90% agree, 2013: 50%).
Interest rates for real estate loans will probably Seller/buyer groups
rise (89% agree).
► International funds (85%, 2013: 75%), corporates
(85%, 2013: 75%) and opportunity/PE funds (85%, 2013:
Real estate transaction market
80%) are expected to be the most active seller
► More portfolio deals are foreseen in the
groups in 2014.
commercial real estate sector
► Opportunity/PE funds (84%, 2013: 65%) and family
(85% agree, 2013: 55%).
offices (83%, 2013: 65%) are expected to be among the
► Transaction volume is expected to increase
most active buyer groups in 2014.
(83%, 2013: 65%).
►
Page 28

29. Outlook for Belgium (2/2)
Greatest deal impediments
► A price mismatch between buyers and sellers is
viewed as the major barrier for deal flows in
2014 (75%, 2013: 75%), no change to last year.
Preferred regions
►
Brussels apparently is the most attractive city
for office investments (30%, 2013:35%). Other
Belgian cities attract a lower demand for
offices. Among those, Ghent is in the lead with 10%
(2013: 10%).
►
Altogether, the differences in retail location
demand is not spread apart very much. Namur
has the highest retail focus with 15%, 2013: 25%).
Bank actions to handle distressed loans
►
Selling distressed loans seems to be the most
common way to deal with them (88%).
Real estate use types
►
Retail properties will have the highest focus for
investors (22% strong, 2013: 25%) or at least a
moderate one (22%, 2013: 30%).
►
Office real estate has lost even more significance
compared to last year (34% strong and
moderate, 2013: 50%).
►
Interest in residential properties has not
changed significantly (45% strong and moderate,
2013: 40%).
For residential investments, several cities are
attractive: Brussels (35%, 2013:5%), Liege (20%, 2013:
25%), Ghent (20%, 2013: 30%) and Antwerp (15%, 2013:
20%).
Planned exit options
► The direct sale of single assets is anticipated to
be the most favourable exit option in 2014 (39%).
Impact of the digital world
►
►
►
Page 29
The most obvious impact is expected with regard
to online suppliers replacing local stores in
weak locations (83%).
On the other hand, e-commerce-suppliers could
emerge as additional tenants for retail space
(67%).

30. Real Estate Assets Investment
Trend Indicator – Europe 2014
Page 30

31. Key findings for Europe
Attractiveness
Transaction
volume
Transaction
market
Capital
markets
Capital
markets
Prices and focus
A clear majority in each of the countries surveyed think
that their market will be attractive to real estate
investors in 2014.
Cross-border investments are set to drive an increase in
transaction volume.
More investors are set to target riskier assets as the
market improves but the supply of core assets remains
low.
Eurozone crisis not main driver for real estate
investments anymore.
As banks limit their exposure to real estate, investors are
set to turn to alternative sources of finance.
Retail prices set to strengthen, especially in markets hit
hardest by the downturn.
Sellers, buyers
E-commerce
trends
Page 31
PE funds set to be among the most active investors across
Europe in 2014.
Brokers and stores alike are braced for renewed
pressure from e-commerce.

32. Market attractiveness continues to improve
across Europe
Key messages
►
►
►
►
A clear majority in each of the
countries surveyed think that
their market will be attractive
to real estate investors in 2014.
The positive change in sentiment
compared with last year is
particularly striking in the
countries hit hardest by the
Eurozone crisis – Spain and Italy.
In comparison with other
European countries, Germany
and the UK are seen as most
attractive by respondents.
In 14 out of the 15 countries
surveyed, more than two-thirds
rate their real estate markets
as attractive compared with
other European markets.
Attractiveness of your market
33%
67%
4%
60%
5%
Poland
32%
67%
1%
Germany
12%
58%
16%
35%
18%
35%
20%
20%
33%
34%
39%
40%
Very attractive
Belgium
54%
57%
44%
45%
Attractive
13%
Netherlands
9%
Ukraine
17%
15%
France
35%
30%
21%
33%
40%
44%
41%
69%
Less attractive
Original question: “How do you rate the countries’ overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2014? /
How do you rate the country’s overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2014, compared with other locations in Europe?"
Page 32
10%
58%
57%
27%
13%
18%
35%
21%
16%
13%
35%
35%
10%
10%
40%
55%
Italy
3%
74%
47%
25%
10%
56%
16%
Turkey
35%
55%
41%
Switzerland
2%
61%
47%
45%
45%
29%
Luxembourg
35%
2%
63%
Spain
49%
47%
20%
Russia
30%
15%
39%
35%
Austria
34%
50%
59%
Sweden
30%
60%
35%
UK
36%
65%
6%
In comparison with other countries
32%
18%

33. Transaction volume expected to exceed 2013 level
Key messages
►
►
►
►
Transaction volume is set to
increase in 2014 for the second
straight year, driven largely by
cross-border investments.
In almost half of the
countries, more than threequarters of interviewees
believe that volume will rise in
their country.
Spain and Italy are predicted to
show the biggest improvements
compared with last year.
Majorities in all countries
agree that cross-border
activity will increase in 2014,
Transaction volume
13%
74%
13%
16%
24%
UK
64%
13%
23%
Netherlands
58%
11%
71%
10%
70%
28%
50%
55%
33%
41%
47%
50%
Turkey
31%
3%
Austria
Rather disagree
21%
6%
10%
25%
47%
59%
10%
9%
5%
48%
22%
38%
60%
15%
Switzerland
32%
75%
France
5%
10%
63%
Russia
15%
45%
Rather agree
47%
52%
Poland
41%
55%
48%
16%
10%
26%
35%
Agree
15%
4% 11%
42%
Sweden
7%
33%
81%
16%
Italy
70%
30%
4%
Germany
22%
27%
3%
3%
13%
57%
Ukraine
77%
27%
60%
10%
Belgium
22%
23%
20%
Spain
26%
61%
19%
3%
Luxembourg
63%
2% 11%
6%
Cross-border activity
43%
25%
42%
57%
50%
50%
5%
28%
41%
3%
30%
10%
Disagree
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: Overall, transaction volume in 2014 will exceed the level seen in 2013. / Investment activity by
international real estate investors will increase compared with 2013.”
Page 33
In some cases no answers were provided by the respondents. This is not shown in the graph.
Thus, the total might deviate from 100%.

34. Riskier investment targets on the rise
Key messages
►
►
As markets improve and the
supply of core assets remains
low, investors are expected to
take more risks.
Investors also anticipate a rise
in speculative project
developments in selected
markets, especially where core
products are often unable to
deliver sufficient returns.
Opportunistic investments
10%
64%
10%
11%
66%
15%
56%
UK
22%
Germany
25%
21%
70%
29%
15%
8%
46%
56%
Agree
Rather agree
57%
5%
10%
48%
5%
8%
6%
Belgium
5%
Luxembourg
6%
Rather disagree
Austria
48%
5%
55%
40%
25%
48%
45%
41%
20%
4%
20%
48%
60%
56%
22%
4%
37%
45%
Italy
3%
38%
42%
10%
41%
39%
63%
Switzerland
15%
3%
56%
8%
31%
20%
40%
10%
50%
5%
67%
8%
57%
33%
Turkey
7%
52%
13%
Poland
21%
60%
30%
38%
Ukraine
50%
15%
11%
5%
71%
29%
5%
56%
Russia
79%
25%
Netherlands
37%
France
18%
63%
1% 18%
Sweden
20%
78%
3% 13%
5%
Spain
26%
70%
11%
Speculative project developments
15%
25%
75%
Disagree
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: The share of value-add and opportunistic investments will increase in 2014. / Speculative
project developments will return in 2014.”
Page 34
In some cases no answers were provided by the respondents. This is not shown in the graph.
Thus, the total might deviate from 100%.
3%
13%
3%

35. Inflation overtakes the Eurozone crisis as the main
investment driver
Key messages
►
►
►
Most European countries no
longer view the Eurozone
sovereign debt crisis as the
main driver for real estate
investments.
In just four countries –
Germany, Austria, Sweden and
the UK – more than two-thirds
of respondents expect the debt
crisis to push real estate
investments in 2014.
Concerns about the impact of
inflation have decreased
compared with last year’s
survey.
Perceptions of the Eurozone crisis
7%
33%
60%
3% 16%
2%
6%
29%
6%
59%
4%
15%
15%
5%
UK
48%
40%
65%
73%
6%
Turkey
15%
60%
20%
5%
15%
Spain
5%
47%
Italy
40%
11%
8%
30%
35%
23%
Belgium
11%
12%
15%
32%
29%
20%
19%
10%
36%
10%
62%
France
41%
40%
13%
8%
45%
48%
45%
13%
Luxembourg
45%
39%
11%
65%
7%
49%
38%
68%
6%
6%
45%
50%
3%
14%
52%
22%
Sweden
57%
40%
5%
Austria
19%
71%
27%
37%
Germany
62%
29%
Fear of inflation
Poland
4%
Switzerland
Netherlands
Russia
Ukraine
3%
37%
63%
43%
43%
39%
20%
63%
57%
Fear of high inflation in the medium term will drive investors towards the real estate market."
Page 35
3%
40%
27%
7%
43%
3%
68%
29%
47%
50%
However, majorities in most
European countries believe that
fear about future inflation will
Strongly Agree
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Agree
drive investors toward real
Original question: “Do you agree with the following statement: The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will drive investments by European investors in the real
estate investments.
estate markets. /
►
5%
57%
40%
3%
21%
3%

36. Fund liquidation, disposal of NPLs and refinancing
requirements set to drive real estate supply
Importance of green-building
Key messages
standards
►
►
Most European countries expect
supply to increase in 2014, due
to the maturity of structured
debt, the disposal of nonperforming loans (NPLs) and the
liquidation of open-ended
funds.
Switzerland and Austria are the
only countries in which fewer
than half of investors expect an
increase in real estate supply.
Real estate supply outlook
Russia
90%
UK
20%
63%
Luxembourg
Turkey
14%
30%
49%
11%
31%
53%
15%
34%
46%
Ukraine
Spain
24%
60%
14%
Poland
24%
69%
10%
Germany
24%
62%
7%
Italy
France
17%
76%
Sweden
Netherlands
10%
35%
58%
5%
52%
10%
Belgium
39%
38%
46%
15%
37%
40%
Switzerland
5%
6%
28%
Strongly Agree
55%
63%
Agree
2%
4%
3%
5%
7%
45%
30%
Austria
6%
Disagree
10%
3%
Strongly Disagree
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: Supply in the real estate market will increase in 2014 (maturity of structured debt, disposal
of non-performing loans, liquidation of open-ended funds)."
Page 36
In some cases no answers were provided by the respondents. This is not shown in the graph.
Thus, the total might deviate from 100%.

37. Commercial mortgage-backed securities market
well-positioned for revival
Importance of green-building
Key messages
standards
►
►
►
The commercial mortgagebacked securities (CMBS)
market is expected to
rebound, particularly in the
most liquid property markets
of the core Eurozone.
More than half of the countries
surveyed expect levels of CMBS
issuance to increase in 2014.
Some southern and eastern
European countries, such as
Italy, Russia and Ukraine, are
more pessimistic about the
CMBS market.
Commercial mortgage-backed securities market (CMBS)
France
5%
Luxembourg
UK
13%
13%
33%
53%
33%
60%
Netherlands
8%
49%
42%
Switzerland
3%
48%
47%
41%
5%
12%
Russia
44%
56%
Austria
43%
57%
Italy
Ukraine
27%
68%
23%
Strongly Agree
77%
Agree
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: The commercial mortgage-backed securities market will revive in 2014."
Page 37
5%
46%
35%
5%
7%
43%
46%
13%
2%
35%
57%
Spain
Turkey
34%
52%
7%
3%
31%
61%
Sweden
Poland
28%
56%
5%
Germany
Belgium
64%
In some cases no answers were provided by the respondents. This is not shown in the graph.
Thus, the total might deviate from 100%.
5%

38. Rising demand for alternative lenders
Importance of green-building
Key messages
standards
►
►
►
As many banks reduce their
exposure to real estate, the
majority of respondents
predict that offer for
mezzanine financing and other
alternative lenders will rise.
Alternative debt providers
Belgium
60%
UK
Netherlands
Sweden
30%
20%
10%
69%
7%
9% 2%
79%
14%
14%
72%
14%
Germany
39%
45%
Ukraine and Poland are the
only countries in which fewer
than half of investors do not
expect the share of alternative
financing to increase.
Luxembourg
41%
41%
New debt sources are likely to
help reduce the funding gap in
the most liquid European
markets.
Switzerland
France
Turkey
28%
15%
65%
28%
20%
23%
48%
40%
24%
35%
9%
25%
57%
Italy
34%
58%
Ukraine
42%
48%
15%
Strongly Agree
6%
18%
77%
Spain
Poland
12%
54%
Russia
Austria
16%
52%
31%
Agree
54%
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: Alternative debt providers (insurance companies, pension and debt funds, mezzanine
providers) will increasingly provide financing for real estate investments."
Page 38
In some cases no answers were provided by the respondents. This is not shown in the graph.
Thus, the total might deviate from 100%.

39. Office and retail prices stable or rising; residential
property leveling off
Key messages
Price trends (prime locations)
Most countries surveyed expect
prices for office space in prime
locations to remain stable or
increase. However, some countries
SWE
anticipate prices falling from
peak levels.
NL
► In countries such as the
Netherlands and Spain, which have
UK
BEL
been hit particularly hard by the
PL
market downturn, prices are
LUX
GER
expected to strengthen over the
next year.
AT
F
CH
► Respondents in most countries
anticipate stable or increasing
prices for prime retail
investments.
I
► Sentiment about residential prices
SP
for the year ahead is more
bearish, with
Rising Constant Falling respondents in
nearly half of theRetail Residential
countries
Office
surveyed predicting price falls in
Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2014, based on the type of use and location?”
prime locations.
►
Page 39
RUS
UA
TR

40. Real estate investment trusts, international funds
and private equity set to become more active
Seller groups
Key messages
►
►
Real estate operating
companies (REOCs), real estate
investment trusts
(REITs), international funds and
private equity (PE) funds are
expected to be among the most
active investors in real estate
throughout Europe in 2014, on
both the buy and sell side.
In addition, private or family
office , residential real estate
companies and institutional
investors are set to be among
the most likely buyers of
property in 2014.
REOC/REITs
Other international funds
Opportunity/PE-funds
Open-ended funds
Closed-ended funds
Corporates (non-property)
Residential real estate companies
Banks
Insurance companies
Public Sector
Cautious
Moderately active
20%
60%
26%
20%
52%
37%
22%
41%
30%
22%
47%
27%
23%
49%
15%
24%
57%
31%
28%
40%
24%
29%
44%
19%
32%
44%
18%
37%
42%
40%
Buyer groups
REOC/REITs
Opportunity/PE-funds
Other international funds
Private/family Office
Residential real estate companies
Insurance companies
Sovereign wealth funds
Open-ended funds
Closed-ended funds
Banks
Original question: “How active do you think the following seller and buyer groups will be in 2014?
"
Page 40
Very active
26%
55%
38%
43%
33%
19%
47%
39%
20%
41%
33%
20%
44%
23%
43%
33%
27%
24%
49%
26%
24%
48%
23%
13%
19%
26%
43%
26%
34%
61%

41. Investment to focus on residential property
Investment focus: residential properties
Key messages
►
►
►
European respondents will focus
their investment strategies most
strongly on residential property.
Investors in the
UK, Spain, France, Germany, Sweden
and Italy show the strongest
interest in office properties.
Despite being the least favored
use type, there will still be a
significant number of investors
focusing on retail in each of the
countries surveyed.
NL
SWE
BEL
UK
RUS
PL
GER
LUX
UA
F
SP
CH
AT
I
TR
Legend
Strong & Moderately Active (values in %)
Office
Retail
Residential
Original question – “Compared with 2013, what level of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for
2014?”
Page 41

42. Page 42

43. E-commerce a major threat to retail outlets in nonprime areas
Brokers lose market share
Key messages
►
►
►
78%
74%
71%
70%
Strongly agree
67%
67%
63%
Respondents in most countries
believe brokers will lose
market share for renting or
selling residential real estate
to internet listing services.
The majority of investors in
each of the countries surveyed
sees e-commerce as a major
threat to retail stores in less
popular locations.
Most of the respondents also
expect e-commerce suppliers to
rent retail locations in order
to increase brand awareness.
62%
61%
57%
53%
53%
52%
Agree
44%
32%
Replacement of over-the-counter retail stores
84%
84%
82%
80%
80%
76%
74%
68%
67%
67%
64%
63%
58%
54%
50%
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: Brokers will lose market share for renting or selling residential real estate due to
Internet listing services. / Online suppliers will replace over-the-counter retail stores in weak locations. / E-Commerce suppliers will appear as tenants
for retail space. / Home office working is out-dated and staff will move back to the workplace.”
Page 43

44. Outlook Europe (1/2)
Attractiveness
Real estate capital market
A clear majority in each of the countries surveyed
think that their market will be attractive to real
estate investors in 2014.
►
Most European countries no longer view the
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis as the main driver
for real estate investments.
The positive change in sentiment compared with last
year is particularly striking in the countries hit
hardest by the Eurozone crisis – Spain and Italy.
Real estate financial/transaction market
►
Concerns about the impact of inflation have
decreased compared with last year’s survey.
►
Most European countries expect supply to increase
in 2014, due to the maturity of structured debt, the
disposal of non-performing loans (NPLs) and the
liquidation of open-ended funds.
►
The commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)
market is expected to rebound, particularly in the
most liquid property markets of the core
Eurozone.
►
New debt sources are likely to help reduce the
funding gap in the most liquid European markets.
►
►
►
Transaction volume is set to increase in 2014 for the
second straight year, driven largely by crossborder investments.
►
Spain and Italy are predicted to show the biggest
improvements compared with last year.
►
As markets improve and the supply of core assets
remains low, investors are expected to take more
risks.
►
Page 44
Investors also anticipate a rise in speculative
project developments in selected
markets, especially where core products are often
unable to deliver sufficient returns.

45. Outlook Europe (2/2)
Price trends
Investment focus
Most countries surveyed expect prices for office ► European respondents will focus their investment
space in prime locations to remain stable or
strategies most strongly on residential property.
increase. However, some countries anticipate prices
► Investors in the UK, Spain, France, Germany, Sweden
falling from peak levels.
and Italy show the strongest interest in office
► Respondents in most countries anticipate stable or
properties.
increasing prices for prime retail investments.
E-commerce trends
► Sentiment about residential prices for the year
► Respondents in most countries believe brokers will
ahead is more bearish, with respondents in nearly
lose market share for renting or selling
half of the countries surveyed predicting price
residential real estate to internet listing services.
falls in prime locations.
► The majority of investors in each of the countries
Seller/buyer groups
surveyed sees e-commerce as a major threat to
► Real estate operating companies (REOCs), real
retail stores in less popular locations.
estate investment trusts (REITs), international
funds and private equity (PE) funds are expected to
be among the most active investors in real estate
throughout Europe in 2014, on both the buy and sell
side.
►
Page 45

46. Page 46

47. Your contacts
Page 47

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