On Thursday, June 16th 2022, the ESRI launched the Community Foundation for Ireland/ESRI report Energy poverty and deprivation in Ireland, a topic once again to the forefront of the policy debate given recent increases in energy prices. This report comprises two main sections. Firstly, it charts the nature of energy poverty in Ireland since the early 1990s, providing insight into the socioeconomic groups likely to experience either energy-related deprivation or high energy costs. Secondly, this report considers recent increases in energy prices to identify how this has affected the number of households experiencing energy poverty. The options policymakers may employ to counter energy poverty are considered. Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/energy-poverty-and-deprivation-in-ireland Read the accompanying press release on our website: https://www.esri.ie/news/energy-poverty-at-highest-recorded-rate Subscribe to our Monthly Newsletter/Publication and Event notifications: https://www.esri.ie/sign-up-for-the-esri-newsletter

1. Energy poverty and deprivation in
Ireland
16th June 2022
Michelle Barrett, Niall Farrell and
Barra Roantree

2. 2
Energy poverty and deprivation
Expenditure-based methods
• 10 per cent share of disposable income
Self-reported metrics
• e.g. “Have you had trouble heating your home”
What can we learn from comparing the incidence
of energy poverty and the incidence of energy
deprivation?

3. 3
Two pieces of insight
To what extent are some energy poverty statistics driven
by:
• Insufficient heat in the home
• Burdensome non-heat expenditure

4. 4
Two pieces of insight
Which households respond by
• Cutting back their energy expenditure - “energy poverty”
• Incurring more burdensome expenditures - “energy deprivation”

5. Headline trends for energy poverty
and deprivation

6. 6
Headline rates of energy poverty and deprivation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
>10% income (incl. electricity)
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.

7. 7
Headline rates of energy poverty and deprivation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
>10% income (incl. electricity) self-reported deprivation
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.

8. 8
Headline rates of energy poverty and deprivation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
>10% income (incl. electricity) >10% income (excl. electricity) self-reported deprivation
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.

9. 9
Headline rates of energy poverty and deprivation
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
>10% income (incl. electricity) >10% income (excl. electricity) self-reported deprivation

10. Rates of energy deprivation and
poverty by socioeconomic group

11. 11
Rates of energy poverty by household tenure
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1994 1999 2004 2009 2015
Homeowner Renter

12. 12
Rates of energy deprivation by household tenure
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Homeowner Renter

13. 13
Rates of energy poverty by dwelling type
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1994 1999 2004 2009 2015
Detached Semi-detached Apartment/Bedsit

14. 14
Rates of energy deprivation by dwelling type
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Detached Semi Detached Apartment/Bedsit

15. 15
Decomposition of energy poverty by at-risk-of-poverty
status
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1994 1999 2004 2009 2015
At-risk-of-poverty and in energy poverty Not at-risk-of-poverty but in energy poverty

16. 16
Decomposition of energy deprivation by at-risk-of-
poverty status
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25% 1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Not at-risk-of-poverty but energy deprived At-risk-of-poverty and energy deprived

17. 18
Decomposition of energy poverty by fuel type
Source: Authors’ calculations using the Household Budget Survey, Living in
Ireland Survey, and Survey of Income and Living Conditions.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1994 1999 2004 2009 2015
Electricity Gas Oil Solid Fuel

18. 20
Fuel prices have risen considerably since 2021
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
2015M01 2016M01 2017M01 2018M01 2019M01 2020M01 2021M01 2022M01
Electricity Natural gas Liquid fuels (home heating oil) Solid fuels
Note: Authors’ calculations using CSO Table CPM16, indexed to average value in 2015.

19. 21
Examine impact of these & future energy price increases
Simulate these impacts using SWITCH (ESRI model)
• Run model on SILC data uprated to 2022 terms
• Allows us to investigate the impact of recent & future price
increases on households accounting for changes in income
Look at two sets of price increases
• Recent: increase from January 2021 to April 2022
• Potential future: 25% additional increase

20. 22
Lowest income HH most affected by recent inflation
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-poverty Location Tenure
€0.00
€10.00
€20.00
€30.00
€40.00
€50.00
€60.00
€70.00
€80.00
€90.00
€100.00
%
of
disposable
income
€
per
week
home heating & electricity (€) ... & motor (€)
home heating & electricity (%) ... & motor (%)
Sources: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated to 2022 terms.
Note: Deciles constructed equivalising income using modified OECD equivalence scale. Spending
imputed using approach detailed in Appendix; the energy CPI sub-indices from January 2021 and April
2022 are used to simulate the price rise.

21. 23
Lowest income HH most affected by recent inflation
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-poverty Location Tenure
€0.00
€10.00
€20.00
€30.00
€40.00
€50.00
€60.00
€70.00
€80.00
€90.00
€100.00
%
of
disposable
income
€
per
week
home heating & electricity (€) ... & motor (€)
home heating & electricity (%) ... & motor (%)
Sources: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated to 2022 terms.
Note: Deciles constructed equivalising income using modified OECD equivalence scale. Spending
imputed using approach detailed in Appendix; the energy CPI sub-indices from January 2021 and April
2022 are used to simulate the price rise.

22. 24
Lowest income HH most affected by recent inflation
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-poverty Location Tenure
€0.00
€10.00
€20.00
€30.00
€40.00
€50.00
€60.00
€70.00
€80.00
€90.00
€100.00
%
of
disposable
income
€
per
week
home heating & electricity (€) ... & motor (€)
home heating & electricity (%) ... & motor (%)
Sources: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated to 2022 terms.
Note: Deciles constructed equivalising income using modified OECD equivalence scale. Spending
imputed using approach detailed in Appendix; the energy CPI sub-indices from January 2021 and April
2022 are used to simulate the price rise.

23. 25
Lowest income HH most affected by recent inflation
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-poverty Location Tenure
€0.00
€10.00
€20.00
€30.00
€40.00
€50.00
€60.00
€70.00
€80.00
€90.00
€100.00
%
of
disposable
income
€
per
week
home heating & electricity (€) ... & motor (€)
home heating & electricity (%) ... & motor (%)
Sources: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated to 2022 terms.
Note: Deciles constructed equivalising income using modified OECD equivalence scale. Spending
imputed using approach detailed in Appendix; the energy CPI sub-indices from January 2021 and April
2022 are used to simulate the price rise.

24. 26
Lowest income HH most affected by recent inflation
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-poverty Location Tenure
€0.00
€10.00
€20.00
€30.00
€40.00
€50.00
€60.00
€70.00
€80.00
€90.00
€100.00
%
of
disposable
income
€
per
week
home heating & electricity (€) ... & motor (€)
home heating & electricity (%) ... & motor (%)
Sources: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated to 2022 terms.
Note: Deciles constructed equivalising income using modified OECD equivalence scale. Spending
imputed using approach detailed in Appendix; the energy CPI sub-indices from January 2021 and April
2022 are used to simulate the price rise.

25. 27
…also low income HHs most effected by future increases
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-poverty Location Tenure
€0.00
€10.00
€20.00
€30.00
€40.00
€50.00
€60.00
€70.00
€80.00
€90.00
€100.00
%
of
disposable
income
€
per
week
home heating & electricity (€) ... & motor (€)
home heating & electricity (%) ... & motor (%)
Sources: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated to 2022 terms.
Note: Deciles constructed equivalising income using modified OECD equivalence scale. Spending
imputed using approach detailed in Appendix; the energy CPI sub-indices from January 2021 and April
2022 are used to simulate the price rise.

26. 28
Energy poverty now above previous recorded high
Previous recorded high, 23%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
2015/16 Nowcast (April 2022) Forecast (further 25% increase in energy prices)
Sources: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated to 2022 terms.

27. 29
Energy poverty now above previous recorded high
Previous recorded high, 23%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
2015/16 Nowcast (April 2022) Forecast (further 25% increase in energy prices)
Sources: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated to 2022 terms.

28. 30
Indirect tax cuts poorly targeted at worst affected HHs
Note: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated
to 2022 terms. Quintiles constructed using modified OECD equivalence scale.
Source: Figure 4.1, Barrett, Farrell and Roantree (2022)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
€0.00
€1.50
€3.00
€4.50
€6.00
All 1 2 3 4 5 Yes No RuralUrban No Yes
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-
poverty
Location Renter
VAT cut (€) Carbon tax on heating oil (€) Cut to fuel duties (€)
VAT cut (%) Carbon tax on heating oil (%) Cut to fuel duties (%)

29. 31
… unlike welfare increases & even lump-sum payments
Note: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated
to 2022 terms. Quintiles constructed using modified OECD equivalence scale.
Source: Figure 4.1, Barrett, Farrell and Roantree (2022)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
€0.00
€1.50
€3.00
€4.50
€6.00
All 1 2 3 4 5 Yes No RuralUrban No Yes
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-
poverty
Location Renter
Social Welfare Bonus (€) Double Fuel Allowance (€) €120 energy credit (€)
Social Welfare Bonus (%) Double Fuel Allowance (%) €120 energy credit (%)

30. 32
…while gains from tax credit ↑ focused on middle incomes
Note: Authors’ calculations using eSWITCH version 4.6 run on 2019 SILC data uprated
to 2022 terms. Quintiles constructed using modified OECD equivalence scale.
Source: Figure 4.1, Barrett, Farrell and Roantree (2022)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
€0.00
€1.50
€3.00
€4.50
€6.00
All 1 2 3 4 5 Yes No RuralUrban No Yes
Total Income quintile At-risk-of-
poverty
Location Renter
175% increase in PRSI credit (€) €50 increase in the tax credit (€)
175% increase in PRSI credit (%) €50 increase in the tax credit (%)

31. 33
Conclusions
Energy poverty & deprivation was falling until recently
• …reversed by price increases in last 18 months, affecting lower
income HHs already at risk of poverty/deprivation most
Limit to what Govt can do makes targeting support key
• Mitigates risk of fuelling further (non-energy) inflation
• As well as weakening incentive to invest in “green” technology,
indirect tax cuts are poorly targeted at those worst affected
• Increases to welfare & even lump-sum payments are both
better targeted and avoid blunting these incentives
Better – and more regular – data is crucial

32. THANK YOU!