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Name – June 11, 2010 – 1UTober_ExCo Call Preparation on PPP – September 1, 2012
Photonics Venture Capital Initiatives in Europe
Financing Photonics Innovations
Giorgio Anania
Photonics21 Vice President
Brussels
May 29, 2015
Name – June 11, 2010 – 2
Financing of Photonics
► Photonics technology has matured, now cost-effective for mass markets
■ Photonics market opportunities growing very rapidly
■ All segments (fiber optics, Solid State Lighting, laser manufacturing, medical
diagnostics, consumer, mobile, displays, automotive lighting, etc.)
► Financing however has not kept up with the photonics opportunity and constrains
new companies
► The ecosystem is beginning to react
■ Corporates
■ National Governments
■ EC
■ Private Initiatives
Name – June 11, 2010 – 3
Venture Capital Financing in EU Still Seriously Lagging the US (4-5x less)
US:
68.2%
Europe:
15.3%
Canada:
2.1% China:
7.2%
India:
3.7%
Israel:
3.5%
Global VC Activity By Geography
2013: $ 48.5 bn
► Global VC investment
$49 bn in 2013, still
below 2008 pre-crisis
level of $51 bn
► Europe makes up 15%
of VC activities – hugely
behind the US with 68%
(4-5x less for a larger
market)
Source: EY - Global Venture Capital insights and trends 2014
$7.4 B
Name – June 11, 2010 – 4
22,8
26,9
32,9 34,9
24,5
28,4
39,8
37,3 39,4
59,0
2574
2823
3568
3895
3418
4078
5060
5976 6124 5160
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Venture Capital Ideal Flows
Investments ($ mio) # Deals closed
……...And While US VC Seems To Be On Upswing………..
Source: Pitchbook
Name – June 11, 2010 – 5
........EU VC Spending Still Down From 2007-2008 Levels, Slow Recovery
3,5 3,6
1,8 1,7 1,7
1,3 1,4 1,6
1,3
2,4
1,9 1,8 1,8
1,8 1,9
1,9
0,2
0,3
0,1
0,1 0,2
0,1
0,1
0,1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20072008200920102011201220132014
Venture Capital investment in EU
in € bn
Later Stage Start Up Seed
► Venture Capital investment in Europe increased
6% in 2014 to € 3.6 B
► This is well below pre-crisis 2008 level of € 6.3 bn
► About 3200 companies were VC backed – thereof
■ 3 % Seeds
■ 53 % Start-up
■ 44 % Later Stage
► Life Science, Computer & Consumer Electronics,
Communications, Energy & Environmental
Sectors accounted for over 70% of all VC
investment
► New VC Funds raised stand at € 4.1 bn in 2014 –
only a slight increase from 2013 (€ 4,0 bn) and
below the peak level of 2007 where new funds
reached € 8,2 bn
► Fund raising by Investors (120 funds-103 firms)
■ ~ 35 % comes from governmental agencies,
■ ~ 14 % from pension funds
■ 12,5 % from corporate investors
Source: EVCA 2014 European Private Equity Activity
Name – June 11, 2010 – 6
EU VC Activities Vary Widely By Country (Investment vs GDP)
► Big VC weighing difference
by country
 Nordics, UK in lead
 France, Germany in
average
 Italy and Spain “dead”
for VC
► From a Geographic Point of
investment:
 68 % are domestic
investments
 23 % are cross-border
investment in Europe
 9 % are abroad
 ..plus 10 % flow from EU
to outsideSource: EVCA 2014 European Private Equity Activity
0,0000%
0,0100%
0,0200%
0,0300%
0,0400%
0,0500%
0,0600%
0,0700%
Sweden
Finland
Ireland
UK
Switzerland
Norway
Hungary
France
Portugal
Belgium
Netherlands
Denmark
EUAverage
Germany
Baltics
Austria
Spain
Luxemburg
Czech
Bulgaria
Poland
Romania
Italy
Greece
VC Investment by Country as % of GDP
Name – June 11, 2010 – 7
EU VC Activities by County – Amount by Country 2014
0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000 900.000
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Sweden
Netherlands
Switzerland
Finland
Norway
Belgium
Spain
Ireland
Denmark
Austria
Portugal
Italy
Hungary
Poland
VC Investment by County - Total €3.6 B
Source: EVCA 2014 European Private Equity Activity
Thousands of euros
68%
Name – June 11, 2010 – 8
VC Investment Increasingly Focussed on Life Sciences and
Mobile/Internet …………………Photonics Not A Major Focus
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Unclassified
Real estate
Agriculture
Construction
Transportation
Chemicals & materials
Financial services
Business & industrial services
Business & industrial products
Consumer services
Consumer goods & retail
Energy & environment
Computer & consumer electronics
Communications
Life sciences
VC Investments in % of total
2012
2013
2014
Source: EVCA 2014 European Private Equity Activity
Name – June 11, 2010 – 9
Stepping In To Fill The Gap:
Major Increase In Corporate Venture Capital Funding Worldwide
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010 2014
Corporate Venture Capital Funds Worldwide
Source: Global Corporate Venturing
Name – June 11, 2010 – 10
745
1118
934 1055 897 1024
1269
939 1052
157316501574
2983
4020
92
102 101
93 97
107 113
128
141 136
153 157 157
187
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Tech Corporate Venture Capital Investment Trends
Investments ($ mio) Deals
Corporate Venture (CVC) – Some Global Trends
Sourcewww.cbinsights.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/cvc500
Name – June 11, 2010 – 11
Corporate Investors Increasingly Engaged, Even In Early Stage (esp. US)
– Huge -- And They DO Focus on Hardware/Photonics
Companies engaged in Early
Stage Deals
Deals
2013/2014
Annual
Investments $ M
Google Ventures 122 2804
Intel Capital 113 2568
Novartis Venture Funds 20 694
Qualcomm Ventures 45 659
GE Ventures 25 639
Comcast Ventures 30 627
Johnson & Johnson Development 20 509
Tengelmann Ventures 14 443
Samsung Ventures 25 439
Siemens Venture Capital 6 412
SR-one 15 395
Cisco Systems 23 359
SingTel Innov8 9 350
Telecom T-Venture Holding 30 346
SoftBank Capital 38 332
Roche Venture Found 8 289
Juniper Networks 8 289
► Huge level of investment
► Corporates now moving (in US)
from their former “late stage”
engagement into early stage.
► Since 2011 Google invested in 150
early stage companies followed by
Intel (60), Qualcomm Ventures (49)
► Aside from Internet/Telecoms and
Medical Sectors there are many
“hardware” companies like GE,
Johnson & Johnson, Siemens, BP
► Lower in the rankings also EU
companies investing in KETs such as
BASF, BMW, Evonik, ABB
► However, strong increase is (for
now) mainly in US
Sources: Entrepreneur www.entrepreneur.com/article/235598 /
CB Insights https:/www.cbinsights.com/blog/corporate-vernture-capital-active-2014/
? Est. €1.2B/year
Google
Ventures
alone is 30x
EC P21
funding!
Name – June 11, 2010 – 12
European Commission Funding of Photonics is Increasing and is Politically
Critical, but is Very Small Compared To Other Financing Sources
► Photonics funding saw rapid incrase
in last 15 years
■ ..and people like to work with us
P21 
► Current funding level exclusively for
photonics is about €100M/year
► Plus lots of new financing routes
being opened for photonics
■ Photonics as a KET
■ SME Instrument, structural
funds, etc.
■ Junker plan for SMEs
► Activity allows aligning entire
ecosystem (e.g., today)
► However financing compares to:
■ €4-5B/yr VC (all segments)
■ Estimated €500M/year
countries‘ internal programs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Funding Photonics in ICT (Mio. €/yr)
Photonics
recognized as KET
Photonics as a cPPP
Source: Photoncis21
Name – June 11, 2010 – 13
EU: Governmental Agencies are becoming very active in VC investment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Europe: VC Funding by type of investor in %
Banks
Corporate investors
Family offices
Government agencies
Pension funds
Private individuals
Others
► Government agencies
participating in VC
investments grew
dramatically since the
2008 crisis – now
reaching € 1.2 bn and
30 % share
► Pension Funds and
Corporates show an
uptick since last year
and have about € 500
mio. each (~10-12%)
► Private Individuals
declined from former
peak of 16% (2010) to
10% (2014)
Name – June 11, 2010 – 14
Examples:
Governmental Company Support (SME) in selected Member States
Source: DB Research: SME Fianncing in the Euro Area – October 14, 2014
Name – June 11, 2010 – 15
Europe: Funding of Businesses by various Institutions/Programs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Horizon 2020 EIB VC PE Total KfW
domestic
promotional
projects
BPI France
domestic
activities
Annual Funding in Euro bn (2014)
Source: EIB Statistics / EVCA Yearbook / KFW Website www.kfw.de / BPI France Annual Report 2013
Name – June 11, 2010 – 16
Crowdfunding – a new Instrument for Financing But Not Optimal For Many
Photonics Business Models
► Crowdfunding gained some share – KPMG/Nesta
estimate that it will increase from £200 M in
2012 to about £15 B.
► Seen as a chance for start-ups to boost their
profile toward investors and customers –
however risk of losing capital
► So far most visible companies applying for
crowdfunding come from the consumer tech
sector – tech online companies and food and
drink business
► High capital needs/long leadtime/non-consumer
photonics companies not ideally suited
► “Start-up Europe“ program, which aims to
strengthen business environment for Web and
ICT based business, sees Crowdfunding as a
method for lowering capital barriers. However a
legal framework in Europe is missing
► 20 % are start-ups in the pre-revenue stage and
50 % are “early stage“
Source: KPMG – The future of Crowd Sourcing and http.//crowdsourcingweek.com: Top 15 Crowdfunding Platforms in Europe
No. Name Country
1 Crowdcube UK
2 Funding Circle UK
3 Our Crowd Israel
4 Ulule France
5 FundedByMe Sweden
6 MyMircroinvest Belgium
7 Symbid Netherlands
8 KissKissBankBank France
9 Goteo Spain
10 Seedrs UK
11 Booomerang Denmark
12 Derev Italy
13 Companisto Germany
14 Invesdor Finland
15 Wemakeit Sweden
Name – June 11, 2010 – 17
Individual Financing Initiatives:
Invest in Photonics Conference – Bordeaux
► Last conference (October 2014) in Bordeaux
■ 170 attendees from VC, Business Angels, Corporate Ventures; + 13 % versus prior
conference
■ Thematic sessions on Environmental & Energy, Consumer Electronics, Life Science,
Aerospace & Transport, 3-D-Printing and Advanced Manufacturing
► Selection Criteria: real market opportunity, unique value proposition, outperforming
competition
► Key differentiation: Great speakers from global photonics end-users! Also great location…
► Held every 2 years in Bordeaux from 2008
► Has been the first EU conference focused
exclusively on photonics
► Good track record. Since 2008:
► 4 Conferences held so far
► 40 % of companies presenting succeeded
in raising funds
► Supported raising € 50 mio. of funds
► Average funding size € 1.5 mio
Name – June 11, 2010 – 18
Individual Financing Initiatives:
First European Photonics Venture Forum (EPVF), Rome
► NEW: started April 2015
► Aim of EPVF:
■ Market Photonics Sector to a wider investor community
■ Channel to finance for high-potential photonics
businesses
■ Supporting sector in raising funds
■ Ensure photonics becomes a pillar of regional
development
► Target Community
■ Entrepreneurs, Investors, Corporate and Policy
► Conference 2015
■ 24 companies selected and invited for a pitch
■ 21 high-level reviewers from Corporate and PE
■ 6 Award Winners – will be invited for a next session in
Düsseldorf, December 2015
► Participants’ geographical origin >50% non-local
■ 40% domestic (ie Italy)
■ 54% other EU
■ 6% non-EU
European Photonics Venture
Forum (EPVF) on 16 April in Rome
conducted by e-limited - initiated
by FP7 project Lightjumps, a
cooperation of Photonics Clusters
Name – June 11, 2010 – 19
In Summary: Venture Capital Financing of Photonics
► Very little VC financing in Europe vs US (4-5x less), gap will likely widen
► The VC financing that exists is increasingly being directed at mobile/internet and life
sciences, hardware investments seriously reduced
■ Hardware generally needs more capital, longer track to payback – less attractive
► Industrial Corporates are stepping in strongly to fill the gap (especially in the US)
■ Heavy focus in HW areas like photonics
■ More comfortable with more capital intensive, longer horizon investments
► European Commission financing of photonics significantly increased (and politically key)
but small in proportion to other sources
► National EU governments have significantly increased their investments (e.g., KfW in
Germany and BPI in France)
► Dedicated investment conferences focussed on photonics are beginning to gain traction
(early days)
The Ecosystem is Beginning To Get Organized To Respond To The Market Opportunity
Name – June 11, 2010 – 20UTober_ExCo Call Preparation on PPP – September 1, 2012
Thank You
Giorgio Anania
Photonics21 Vice President, CEO Aledia
Brussels, May 29, 2015
Giorgio.anania@gmail.com
Name – June 11, 2010 – 21
Venture Capital Trends – Do they apply for Photonics Segments ?
► What most VC companies are looking for makes it to some extend difficult for the
Hardware Sector to attract VC funding. VCs want:
■ Rapid feedback to know if investments will pay-off
■ Fast route to profitable growth: Pilot production, market penetration and scaling
■ Low upfront investment (risk)
► Consequently favorite sectors for VC investments were and still are
■ Consumer services (such as e-commerce, gaming, web marketing, mobile
interfaces, cloud technologies) – in EU ~ 50 % of VC investment
■ Information Technology – dominated by US in terms of deals and money invested
– and 70% is in software
■ Health Care & Life Sciences where PE funding has long tradition - such as in
biotech, medical devices (“guaranteed exits”)
► However – some Hardware Sectors are attracting business angels/VCs, especially
■ where open standards and modular approaches are applied, or
■ Where fast development/marketing is possible – e.g. Maker Scene (3D-Printing)
Sources: EY - Global Venture Capital insights and trends 2014 / Web Magazine „Hardware start-up funding – what makes it so different from software start-up‘s?“, 16.09.2014
Name – June 11, 2010 – 22
Financing Innovations in Europe – Wrap-Up
► Despite Europe‘s VC Investment levels do not reach US levels – the amount of
capital which invested is in the range of billion Euros (comment from my side – not
for the chart - compared to public funding which is at best in the range of 600 mio.
even if we calculate broadly)
■ worthwhile to consider for financing innovations
► Software and Consumer Services are the main target of investments
■ however - some areas of investment interest match also photonics areas
► Corporate investors kick in to fill their innovations gaps –also outside Software
■ due to long-term commitment a chance for photonics start-up’s
► EU Governmental measures are gaining ground in investing innovations and also
take some measures to liberate capital flow within Europe
■ EIB Programs are available such as Project loans for individual projects ,
Intermediated loans, ESIF Financial Instruments , Project bonds
■ New EIB/ESIF Programs are considered to better meet the needs of financing
innovations and fill the investment gaps
► Successful Member State Instruments for investing in innovation and growth
introduced – e.g. KFW-Germany / BPI-France / Cassa Depositi e Prestiti –Italy
Name – June 11, 2010 – 23
CVC – Corporate Venture Sector Focus (Number of Deals)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q2/2013 Q3/2013 Q4/2013 Q1/2014 Q2/2014
Share of Sectors (Deals) as % of total
Internet
Healthcare
Energy & Utility
Telecom
Name – June 11, 2010 – 24
Corporate Venture (CVC) – Some Global Trends (II)
► Content focus
■ Alignment with growth strategy of parent
■ Financial returns
► Sector Focus:
■ Healthcare Services (nutrition, health informatics, diagnostics) – 30 % deals
■ Energy Services (Cleantech , Energy Efficiency, Resource Efficiency)
■ ICT / New Media ~ 30 % of deals
■ Performance Materials
► Investments Hotbeds (percentage of deals) in 2013
■ US – 65 %
■ Europe – 15 %
● UK 4%
● Germany 4 %
■ Asia – 15 %
● China 4%
● Japan 4%
● India 3%
■ Other (most infrastructural e.g. in Moscow, Czech Republic)
Source: Investing in Breakthrough CVC : Volans, Mac Arthur Foundation; The Social Investment Business
Name – June 11, 2010 – 25
Our Experiences: Findings from both Photonics Conferences
► Private Equity Investments in Photonics mainly comes from Corporate Investors –
engagement of Venture Capitalists decreased
► Main Investment Focus is on Consumer Electronics and Life Science
■ Some interest also in Transportation & Aerospace
■ Hardware becoming a “zombie sector” in US and EU – slightly different in Asia
► Especially large ICT companies seek buying innovations/entrepreneurs within their
large R&D/M&A Budget – far above typical VC budgets
■ e.g. Samsung Ventures has a budget of $ 1.2 B/year to invest in new
technologies, compared to typical VC fund investing ~ $ 100 M/10 years
■ e.g. Google’s investment for data centers/servers would comprise 200 mio.
servers – means investment for 50 mio. optical connections
■ Apple by-passes investments by directly hiring promising photonics engineers
► Corporate Investors – opportunities and risks
 Mid/Long-term Commitment
 Strategically driven to implement in markets
 Integrate entrepreneurs in large organizations/ bureaucracy
Name – June 11, 2010 – 26
Global Venture Capital Activities – Some Global Trends II
► Business Angels increasingly supporting Entrepreneurial Businesses
■ Business Angels and Incubators expanding their presence in seed and early stages. In US
increased their share in start-ups from 14% in 2007 to 26% in 2013.
■ They also increased their share in later stages such as product development (18%) and
even Revenue Generation (10%)
► Global VC Fundraising Activity
■ Overall Fundraising activity dropped from 2012 to 2013 – both in number of funds
financed (from 344 to 325) and in amount of money raised (from $ 34 B to $ 28 B).
■ In terms of number of funds closed 2013 US had an share of 64 % (207 funds) and Europe
of 18 % (58 funds) – same as their relative share in annual activity
■ In terms of money raised both regions experienced a decline of 6%. US dropped from $
21B to $20B, and Europe from $ 5B to $ 4.7B
► Excess Capital (“Dry Powder”)
■ Despite fewer funds tackling capital the amount of “dry powder“ - excess capital – also
increased by 3 % in 2013 versus previous year
■ US-based companies have now 22 months of investable assets. Europe has 26 months
and Asia is higher with 74 months
Name – June 11, 2010 – 27
EIB Projects 2014 by Sector – Total €77 B
Agriculture
1%
Composite
Infrastructure
1%
Credit Lines
34%
Education
6%Energy
17%
Health
2%
Industry
7%
Services
3%
Solid Waste
1%
Telecom
3%
Transport
18%
Urban
Development
4%
Water
3%
EIB projects financed
Source: EIB Statistics
Name – June 11, 2010 – 28
SME Financing – Governmental Instruments (EU + Member States)
■ Done mainly by banking credits - but they are costly especially for those SME‘s in crisis affected
countries in Southern Europe
■ Support initiatives LTROs ( and new TLTROs) for banks to initiate SME financing/credits have not
contributed to raise lending
■ Securisation of SME loans to shift risks from banks to capital markets is a possibility to shift capital in
real economy – however level shrank
■ Governmental support: Public institutions tried to support SME‘s but are limited due to cost for
taxpayers issue. Success so far are limited to some countries
● Germany : KFW - quite successful to achieve private capital involvement with a variety of
instruments like ERP-Star-up loan, Entrepreneur Loan, ERP Equity Capital or ERP Participation
Programs
o € 11,3 bio. new gross lending
o 34000 entrepreneur loans
o 2,6 bio. for start-up’s loans
● France: Banque Public d‘ Investissement (Bpifrance) – similar model than KfW
o France has loans € 8 bio. for banking credits of 60.800 enterprises
o Grants of 747 mio. for innovations
o Investment in ~ 1000 enterprises / year
● Italy – Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CdP) coordinated various programs for debt financing public
initiatives as well as equity financing
● Spain Instituto de Crédito Oficial (ICO) and Empresa Nacional de Innovación (ENISA)
Name – June 11, 2010 – 29
Venture Capital Financing in EU Still Seriously Lagging the US (4-5x less)
US:
68.2%
Europe:
15.3%
Canada:
2.1% China:
7.2%
India:
3.7%
Israel:
3.5%
Global VC Activity By Geography
2013: $ 48.5 B
► Global VC investment $49B in 2013, still below
2008 pre-crisis level ($51 B)
► Europe makes up 15% of VC activities – hugely
behind the US with 68% (4-5x less for a larger
market)
► China VC market lost share and dropped from
former 11% share to 7%
► VC & PE dynamics and trends – according to E+Y
2014 VC report
■ VC becoming more risk averse and shifting
investments to later stage
■ Corporate Investors increased activities in
later stage to fill their innovation gaps
■ Governments start creating entrepreneurial
ecosystems where equity investments can
grow (both debt and equity side)
■ Crowdfunding as a new mechanism is used by
some seed financing (mainly b2c)
Source: EY - Global Venture Capital insights and trends 2014
$7.4 B
Name – June 11, 2010 – 30
Governmental Initiatives – Enhancing Role of EIB (I)
► EIB - owned by 28 EU Member states. Subscribed capital of EUR 243bn
► Most important instruments of EIB are:
■ Project loans for individual projects for investments > € 25 mio.. Lending sum up to
50% of the total cost. Current average share of the EIB is 1/3 as the activities of the EIB
attract investors from the private sector.
■ Intermediated loans are loans which are passed to local banks and which are then
“lent-on” to SMEs, Mid-Cap businesses but also public sector bodies when financial
resources deployed for objectives that are in line with the EIB’s policies – for instance
economic and social cohesion.
■ ESIF Financial Instruments transform national financial resources coming from the EU
budget into financial products such as loans, guarantees and equity. Management made
by the national authorities. These financial instruments have been used so far for
Structural Fund investments.
■ Project bonds are the most recent product of the EIB. Private/public project companies
investing into large scale projects in the field of energy, transport and broad-band
infrastructure could benefit from a credit enhancement: The EIB guarantees a tranche
of subordinated debt so that the credit standing of the senior debt (project bonds) is
enhanced and becomes more attractive for institutional investors. Eligible Projects are
selected by the EIB.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research / European investment initiatives: disappointing volume and momentum , October 2014
Name – June 11, 2010 – 31
Governmental Initiatives: Enhancing Role of EIB (II) – EIF Related
► EIB holds a 62% share of the European Investment Fund (EIF) which provides venture capital to small and
medium size enterprises. The success of the measures of the EIB and the EIF with regard to public and private
investment in the Euro crisis has not yet been fully assessed.
► Currently discussed options to extend EIB activities
► Option 1: Increase flexibility of ESIF Financial instruments. Make use of financial resources coming from EU
budget more flexible to leverage them in national ESIF financial instruments.
► Option 2: Increase special activities reserve. Investment activities which carry a higher risk are normally
backed up by a “special activities reserve” which currently amounts up to EUR 6.1bn. One possibility would be
to increase the EIB’s special activity reserve. Problem: Keep AAA Rating or raise more capital from member
states which run contrary to austerity efforts
► Option 3: Strengthen the capital base of the EIF - requires additional resources coming from the EU member
states. This could be done by rededication of resources coming from ESM or EFSM
■ Rededication of financial resources coming from the ESM (either guarantees or parts of the cash
reserve) to recapitalize the European Investment Fund (EIF). Problem: Objections by some Euro area
countries – and unanimity is required in order to redefine the purpose of ESM guarantees.
■ Politically more feasible would be the rededication of financial means coming from the small European
Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM), a EUR 60bn facility which is attached to the European
Commission and which complemented the EFSF in its financial aid to Ireland (EUR 22.5bn) and Portugal
(EUR 26bn) back in 2010 and 2011. Currently a sum of about EUR 11.5bn would still be available.
However, there are also plans to rededicate these financial means to the balance of payments facility –
a rescue mechanism of Non-EMU countries.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research / European investment initiatives: disappointing volume and momentum , October 2014

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Giorgio Anania Photonics Venture Capital Initiatives in Europe Financing Photonics Innovations (May 2015)

  • 1. Name – June 11, 2010 – 1UTober_ExCo Call Preparation on PPP – September 1, 2012 Photonics Venture Capital Initiatives in Europe Financing Photonics Innovations Giorgio Anania Photonics21 Vice President Brussels May 29, 2015
  • 2. Name – June 11, 2010 – 2 Financing of Photonics ► Photonics technology has matured, now cost-effective for mass markets ■ Photonics market opportunities growing very rapidly ■ All segments (fiber optics, Solid State Lighting, laser manufacturing, medical diagnostics, consumer, mobile, displays, automotive lighting, etc.) ► Financing however has not kept up with the photonics opportunity and constrains new companies ► The ecosystem is beginning to react ■ Corporates ■ National Governments ■ EC ■ Private Initiatives
  • 3. Name – June 11, 2010 – 3 Venture Capital Financing in EU Still Seriously Lagging the US (4-5x less) US: 68.2% Europe: 15.3% Canada: 2.1% China: 7.2% India: 3.7% Israel: 3.5% Global VC Activity By Geography 2013: $ 48.5 bn ► Global VC investment $49 bn in 2013, still below 2008 pre-crisis level of $51 bn ► Europe makes up 15% of VC activities – hugely behind the US with 68% (4-5x less for a larger market) Source: EY - Global Venture Capital insights and trends 2014 $7.4 B
  • 4. Name – June 11, 2010 – 4 22,8 26,9 32,9 34,9 24,5 28,4 39,8 37,3 39,4 59,0 2574 2823 3568 3895 3418 4078 5060 5976 6124 5160 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 US Venture Capital Ideal Flows Investments ($ mio) # Deals closed ……...And While US VC Seems To Be On Upswing……….. Source: Pitchbook
  • 5. Name – June 11, 2010 – 5 ........EU VC Spending Still Down From 2007-2008 Levels, Slow Recovery 3,5 3,6 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,3 1,4 1,6 1,3 2,4 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,8 1,9 1,9 0,2 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 20072008200920102011201220132014 Venture Capital investment in EU in € bn Later Stage Start Up Seed ► Venture Capital investment in Europe increased 6% in 2014 to € 3.6 B ► This is well below pre-crisis 2008 level of € 6.3 bn ► About 3200 companies were VC backed – thereof ■ 3 % Seeds ■ 53 % Start-up ■ 44 % Later Stage ► Life Science, Computer & Consumer Electronics, Communications, Energy & Environmental Sectors accounted for over 70% of all VC investment ► New VC Funds raised stand at € 4.1 bn in 2014 – only a slight increase from 2013 (€ 4,0 bn) and below the peak level of 2007 where new funds reached € 8,2 bn ► Fund raising by Investors (120 funds-103 firms) ■ ~ 35 % comes from governmental agencies, ■ ~ 14 % from pension funds ■ 12,5 % from corporate investors Source: EVCA 2014 European Private Equity Activity
  • 6. Name – June 11, 2010 – 6 EU VC Activities Vary Widely By Country (Investment vs GDP) ► Big VC weighing difference by country  Nordics, UK in lead  France, Germany in average  Italy and Spain “dead” for VC ► From a Geographic Point of investment:  68 % are domestic investments  23 % are cross-border investment in Europe  9 % are abroad  ..plus 10 % flow from EU to outsideSource: EVCA 2014 European Private Equity Activity 0,0000% 0,0100% 0,0200% 0,0300% 0,0400% 0,0500% 0,0600% 0,0700% Sweden Finland Ireland UK Switzerland Norway Hungary France Portugal Belgium Netherlands Denmark EUAverage Germany Baltics Austria Spain Luxemburg Czech Bulgaria Poland Romania Italy Greece VC Investment by Country as % of GDP
  • 7. Name – June 11, 2010 – 7 EU VC Activities by County – Amount by Country 2014 0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000 900.000 United Kingdom Germany France Sweden Netherlands Switzerland Finland Norway Belgium Spain Ireland Denmark Austria Portugal Italy Hungary Poland VC Investment by County - Total €3.6 B Source: EVCA 2014 European Private Equity Activity Thousands of euros 68%
  • 8. Name – June 11, 2010 – 8 VC Investment Increasingly Focussed on Life Sciences and Mobile/Internet …………………Photonics Not A Major Focus 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Unclassified Real estate Agriculture Construction Transportation Chemicals & materials Financial services Business & industrial services Business & industrial products Consumer services Consumer goods & retail Energy & environment Computer & consumer electronics Communications Life sciences VC Investments in % of total 2012 2013 2014 Source: EVCA 2014 European Private Equity Activity
  • 9. Name – June 11, 2010 – 9 Stepping In To Fill The Gap: Major Increase In Corporate Venture Capital Funding Worldwide 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2010 2014 Corporate Venture Capital Funds Worldwide Source: Global Corporate Venturing
  • 10. Name – June 11, 2010 – 10 745 1118 934 1055 897 1024 1269 939 1052 157316501574 2983 4020 92 102 101 93 97 107 113 128 141 136 153 157 157 187 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Tech Corporate Venture Capital Investment Trends Investments ($ mio) Deals Corporate Venture (CVC) – Some Global Trends Sourcewww.cbinsights.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/cvc500
  • 11. Name – June 11, 2010 – 11 Corporate Investors Increasingly Engaged, Even In Early Stage (esp. US) – Huge -- And They DO Focus on Hardware/Photonics Companies engaged in Early Stage Deals Deals 2013/2014 Annual Investments $ M Google Ventures 122 2804 Intel Capital 113 2568 Novartis Venture Funds 20 694 Qualcomm Ventures 45 659 GE Ventures 25 639 Comcast Ventures 30 627 Johnson & Johnson Development 20 509 Tengelmann Ventures 14 443 Samsung Ventures 25 439 Siemens Venture Capital 6 412 SR-one 15 395 Cisco Systems 23 359 SingTel Innov8 9 350 Telecom T-Venture Holding 30 346 SoftBank Capital 38 332 Roche Venture Found 8 289 Juniper Networks 8 289 ► Huge level of investment ► Corporates now moving (in US) from their former “late stage” engagement into early stage. ► Since 2011 Google invested in 150 early stage companies followed by Intel (60), Qualcomm Ventures (49) ► Aside from Internet/Telecoms and Medical Sectors there are many “hardware” companies like GE, Johnson & Johnson, Siemens, BP ► Lower in the rankings also EU companies investing in KETs such as BASF, BMW, Evonik, ABB ► However, strong increase is (for now) mainly in US Sources: Entrepreneur www.entrepreneur.com/article/235598 / CB Insights https:/www.cbinsights.com/blog/corporate-vernture-capital-active-2014/ ? Est. €1.2B/year Google Ventures alone is 30x EC P21 funding!
  • 12. Name – June 11, 2010 – 12 European Commission Funding of Photonics is Increasing and is Politically Critical, but is Very Small Compared To Other Financing Sources ► Photonics funding saw rapid incrase in last 15 years ■ ..and people like to work with us P21  ► Current funding level exclusively for photonics is about €100M/year ► Plus lots of new financing routes being opened for photonics ■ Photonics as a KET ■ SME Instrument, structural funds, etc. ■ Junker plan for SMEs ► Activity allows aligning entire ecosystem (e.g., today) ► However financing compares to: ■ €4-5B/yr VC (all segments) ■ Estimated €500M/year countries‘ internal programs 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Funding Photonics in ICT (Mio. €/yr) Photonics recognized as KET Photonics as a cPPP Source: Photoncis21
  • 13. Name – June 11, 2010 – 13 EU: Governmental Agencies are becoming very active in VC investment 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe: VC Funding by type of investor in % Banks Corporate investors Family offices Government agencies Pension funds Private individuals Others ► Government agencies participating in VC investments grew dramatically since the 2008 crisis – now reaching € 1.2 bn and 30 % share ► Pension Funds and Corporates show an uptick since last year and have about € 500 mio. each (~10-12%) ► Private Individuals declined from former peak of 16% (2010) to 10% (2014)
  • 14. Name – June 11, 2010 – 14 Examples: Governmental Company Support (SME) in selected Member States Source: DB Research: SME Fianncing in the Euro Area – October 14, 2014
  • 15. Name – June 11, 2010 – 15 Europe: Funding of Businesses by various Institutions/Programs 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Horizon 2020 EIB VC PE Total KfW domestic promotional projects BPI France domestic activities Annual Funding in Euro bn (2014) Source: EIB Statistics / EVCA Yearbook / KFW Website www.kfw.de / BPI France Annual Report 2013
  • 16. Name – June 11, 2010 – 16 Crowdfunding – a new Instrument for Financing But Not Optimal For Many Photonics Business Models ► Crowdfunding gained some share – KPMG/Nesta estimate that it will increase from £200 M in 2012 to about £15 B. ► Seen as a chance for start-ups to boost their profile toward investors and customers – however risk of losing capital ► So far most visible companies applying for crowdfunding come from the consumer tech sector – tech online companies and food and drink business ► High capital needs/long leadtime/non-consumer photonics companies not ideally suited ► “Start-up Europe“ program, which aims to strengthen business environment for Web and ICT based business, sees Crowdfunding as a method for lowering capital barriers. However a legal framework in Europe is missing ► 20 % are start-ups in the pre-revenue stage and 50 % are “early stage“ Source: KPMG – The future of Crowd Sourcing and http.//crowdsourcingweek.com: Top 15 Crowdfunding Platforms in Europe No. Name Country 1 Crowdcube UK 2 Funding Circle UK 3 Our Crowd Israel 4 Ulule France 5 FundedByMe Sweden 6 MyMircroinvest Belgium 7 Symbid Netherlands 8 KissKissBankBank France 9 Goteo Spain 10 Seedrs UK 11 Booomerang Denmark 12 Derev Italy 13 Companisto Germany 14 Invesdor Finland 15 Wemakeit Sweden
  • 17. Name – June 11, 2010 – 17 Individual Financing Initiatives: Invest in Photonics Conference – Bordeaux ► Last conference (October 2014) in Bordeaux ■ 170 attendees from VC, Business Angels, Corporate Ventures; + 13 % versus prior conference ■ Thematic sessions on Environmental & Energy, Consumer Electronics, Life Science, Aerospace & Transport, 3-D-Printing and Advanced Manufacturing ► Selection Criteria: real market opportunity, unique value proposition, outperforming competition ► Key differentiation: Great speakers from global photonics end-users! Also great location… ► Held every 2 years in Bordeaux from 2008 ► Has been the first EU conference focused exclusively on photonics ► Good track record. Since 2008: ► 4 Conferences held so far ► 40 % of companies presenting succeeded in raising funds ► Supported raising € 50 mio. of funds ► Average funding size € 1.5 mio
  • 18. Name – June 11, 2010 – 18 Individual Financing Initiatives: First European Photonics Venture Forum (EPVF), Rome ► NEW: started April 2015 ► Aim of EPVF: ■ Market Photonics Sector to a wider investor community ■ Channel to finance for high-potential photonics businesses ■ Supporting sector in raising funds ■ Ensure photonics becomes a pillar of regional development ► Target Community ■ Entrepreneurs, Investors, Corporate and Policy ► Conference 2015 ■ 24 companies selected and invited for a pitch ■ 21 high-level reviewers from Corporate and PE ■ 6 Award Winners – will be invited for a next session in Düsseldorf, December 2015 ► Participants’ geographical origin >50% non-local ■ 40% domestic (ie Italy) ■ 54% other EU ■ 6% non-EU European Photonics Venture Forum (EPVF) on 16 April in Rome conducted by e-limited - initiated by FP7 project Lightjumps, a cooperation of Photonics Clusters
  • 19. Name – June 11, 2010 – 19 In Summary: Venture Capital Financing of Photonics ► Very little VC financing in Europe vs US (4-5x less), gap will likely widen ► The VC financing that exists is increasingly being directed at mobile/internet and life sciences, hardware investments seriously reduced ■ Hardware generally needs more capital, longer track to payback – less attractive ► Industrial Corporates are stepping in strongly to fill the gap (especially in the US) ■ Heavy focus in HW areas like photonics ■ More comfortable with more capital intensive, longer horizon investments ► European Commission financing of photonics significantly increased (and politically key) but small in proportion to other sources ► National EU governments have significantly increased their investments (e.g., KfW in Germany and BPI in France) ► Dedicated investment conferences focussed on photonics are beginning to gain traction (early days) The Ecosystem is Beginning To Get Organized To Respond To The Market Opportunity
  • 20. Name – June 11, 2010 – 20UTober_ExCo Call Preparation on PPP – September 1, 2012 Thank You Giorgio Anania Photonics21 Vice President, CEO Aledia Brussels, May 29, 2015 Giorgio.anania@gmail.com
  • 21. Name – June 11, 2010 – 21 Venture Capital Trends – Do they apply for Photonics Segments ? ► What most VC companies are looking for makes it to some extend difficult for the Hardware Sector to attract VC funding. VCs want: ■ Rapid feedback to know if investments will pay-off ■ Fast route to profitable growth: Pilot production, market penetration and scaling ■ Low upfront investment (risk) ► Consequently favorite sectors for VC investments were and still are ■ Consumer services (such as e-commerce, gaming, web marketing, mobile interfaces, cloud technologies) – in EU ~ 50 % of VC investment ■ Information Technology – dominated by US in terms of deals and money invested – and 70% is in software ■ Health Care & Life Sciences where PE funding has long tradition - such as in biotech, medical devices (“guaranteed exits”) ► However – some Hardware Sectors are attracting business angels/VCs, especially ■ where open standards and modular approaches are applied, or ■ Where fast development/marketing is possible – e.g. Maker Scene (3D-Printing) Sources: EY - Global Venture Capital insights and trends 2014 / Web Magazine „Hardware start-up funding – what makes it so different from software start-up‘s?“, 16.09.2014
  • 22. Name – June 11, 2010 – 22 Financing Innovations in Europe – Wrap-Up ► Despite Europe‘s VC Investment levels do not reach US levels – the amount of capital which invested is in the range of billion Euros (comment from my side – not for the chart - compared to public funding which is at best in the range of 600 mio. even if we calculate broadly) ■ worthwhile to consider for financing innovations ► Software and Consumer Services are the main target of investments ■ however - some areas of investment interest match also photonics areas ► Corporate investors kick in to fill their innovations gaps –also outside Software ■ due to long-term commitment a chance for photonics start-up’s ► EU Governmental measures are gaining ground in investing innovations and also take some measures to liberate capital flow within Europe ■ EIB Programs are available such as Project loans for individual projects , Intermediated loans, ESIF Financial Instruments , Project bonds ■ New EIB/ESIF Programs are considered to better meet the needs of financing innovations and fill the investment gaps ► Successful Member State Instruments for investing in innovation and growth introduced – e.g. KFW-Germany / BPI-France / Cassa Depositi e Prestiti –Italy
  • 23. Name – June 11, 2010 – 23 CVC – Corporate Venture Sector Focus (Number of Deals) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q2/2013 Q3/2013 Q4/2013 Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Share of Sectors (Deals) as % of total Internet Healthcare Energy & Utility Telecom
  • 24. Name – June 11, 2010 – 24 Corporate Venture (CVC) – Some Global Trends (II) ► Content focus ■ Alignment with growth strategy of parent ■ Financial returns ► Sector Focus: ■ Healthcare Services (nutrition, health informatics, diagnostics) – 30 % deals ■ Energy Services (Cleantech , Energy Efficiency, Resource Efficiency) ■ ICT / New Media ~ 30 % of deals ■ Performance Materials ► Investments Hotbeds (percentage of deals) in 2013 ■ US – 65 % ■ Europe – 15 % ● UK 4% ● Germany 4 % ■ Asia – 15 % ● China 4% ● Japan 4% ● India 3% ■ Other (most infrastructural e.g. in Moscow, Czech Republic) Source: Investing in Breakthrough CVC : Volans, Mac Arthur Foundation; The Social Investment Business
  • 25. Name – June 11, 2010 – 25 Our Experiences: Findings from both Photonics Conferences ► Private Equity Investments in Photonics mainly comes from Corporate Investors – engagement of Venture Capitalists decreased ► Main Investment Focus is on Consumer Electronics and Life Science ■ Some interest also in Transportation & Aerospace ■ Hardware becoming a “zombie sector” in US and EU – slightly different in Asia ► Especially large ICT companies seek buying innovations/entrepreneurs within their large R&D/M&A Budget – far above typical VC budgets ■ e.g. Samsung Ventures has a budget of $ 1.2 B/year to invest in new technologies, compared to typical VC fund investing ~ $ 100 M/10 years ■ e.g. Google’s investment for data centers/servers would comprise 200 mio. servers – means investment for 50 mio. optical connections ■ Apple by-passes investments by directly hiring promising photonics engineers ► Corporate Investors – opportunities and risks  Mid/Long-term Commitment  Strategically driven to implement in markets  Integrate entrepreneurs in large organizations/ bureaucracy
  • 26. Name – June 11, 2010 – 26 Global Venture Capital Activities – Some Global Trends II ► Business Angels increasingly supporting Entrepreneurial Businesses ■ Business Angels and Incubators expanding their presence in seed and early stages. In US increased their share in start-ups from 14% in 2007 to 26% in 2013. ■ They also increased their share in later stages such as product development (18%) and even Revenue Generation (10%) ► Global VC Fundraising Activity ■ Overall Fundraising activity dropped from 2012 to 2013 – both in number of funds financed (from 344 to 325) and in amount of money raised (from $ 34 B to $ 28 B). ■ In terms of number of funds closed 2013 US had an share of 64 % (207 funds) and Europe of 18 % (58 funds) – same as their relative share in annual activity ■ In terms of money raised both regions experienced a decline of 6%. US dropped from $ 21B to $20B, and Europe from $ 5B to $ 4.7B ► Excess Capital (“Dry Powder”) ■ Despite fewer funds tackling capital the amount of “dry powder“ - excess capital – also increased by 3 % in 2013 versus previous year ■ US-based companies have now 22 months of investable assets. Europe has 26 months and Asia is higher with 74 months
  • 27. Name – June 11, 2010 – 27 EIB Projects 2014 by Sector – Total €77 B Agriculture 1% Composite Infrastructure 1% Credit Lines 34% Education 6%Energy 17% Health 2% Industry 7% Services 3% Solid Waste 1% Telecom 3% Transport 18% Urban Development 4% Water 3% EIB projects financed Source: EIB Statistics
  • 28. Name – June 11, 2010 – 28 SME Financing – Governmental Instruments (EU + Member States) ■ Done mainly by banking credits - but they are costly especially for those SME‘s in crisis affected countries in Southern Europe ■ Support initiatives LTROs ( and new TLTROs) for banks to initiate SME financing/credits have not contributed to raise lending ■ Securisation of SME loans to shift risks from banks to capital markets is a possibility to shift capital in real economy – however level shrank ■ Governmental support: Public institutions tried to support SME‘s but are limited due to cost for taxpayers issue. Success so far are limited to some countries ● Germany : KFW - quite successful to achieve private capital involvement with a variety of instruments like ERP-Star-up loan, Entrepreneur Loan, ERP Equity Capital or ERP Participation Programs o € 11,3 bio. new gross lending o 34000 entrepreneur loans o 2,6 bio. for start-up’s loans ● France: Banque Public d‘ Investissement (Bpifrance) – similar model than KfW o France has loans € 8 bio. for banking credits of 60.800 enterprises o Grants of 747 mio. for innovations o Investment in ~ 1000 enterprises / year ● Italy – Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CdP) coordinated various programs for debt financing public initiatives as well as equity financing ● Spain Instituto de Crédito Oficial (ICO) and Empresa Nacional de Innovación (ENISA)
  • 29. Name – June 11, 2010 – 29 Venture Capital Financing in EU Still Seriously Lagging the US (4-5x less) US: 68.2% Europe: 15.3% Canada: 2.1% China: 7.2% India: 3.7% Israel: 3.5% Global VC Activity By Geography 2013: $ 48.5 B ► Global VC investment $49B in 2013, still below 2008 pre-crisis level ($51 B) ► Europe makes up 15% of VC activities – hugely behind the US with 68% (4-5x less for a larger market) ► China VC market lost share and dropped from former 11% share to 7% ► VC & PE dynamics and trends – according to E+Y 2014 VC report ■ VC becoming more risk averse and shifting investments to later stage ■ Corporate Investors increased activities in later stage to fill their innovation gaps ■ Governments start creating entrepreneurial ecosystems where equity investments can grow (both debt and equity side) ■ Crowdfunding as a new mechanism is used by some seed financing (mainly b2c) Source: EY - Global Venture Capital insights and trends 2014 $7.4 B
  • 30. Name – June 11, 2010 – 30 Governmental Initiatives – Enhancing Role of EIB (I) ► EIB - owned by 28 EU Member states. Subscribed capital of EUR 243bn ► Most important instruments of EIB are: ■ Project loans for individual projects for investments > € 25 mio.. Lending sum up to 50% of the total cost. Current average share of the EIB is 1/3 as the activities of the EIB attract investors from the private sector. ■ Intermediated loans are loans which are passed to local banks and which are then “lent-on” to SMEs, Mid-Cap businesses but also public sector bodies when financial resources deployed for objectives that are in line with the EIB’s policies – for instance economic and social cohesion. ■ ESIF Financial Instruments transform national financial resources coming from the EU budget into financial products such as loans, guarantees and equity. Management made by the national authorities. These financial instruments have been used so far for Structural Fund investments. ■ Project bonds are the most recent product of the EIB. Private/public project companies investing into large scale projects in the field of energy, transport and broad-band infrastructure could benefit from a credit enhancement: The EIB guarantees a tranche of subordinated debt so that the credit standing of the senior debt (project bonds) is enhanced and becomes more attractive for institutional investors. Eligible Projects are selected by the EIB. Source: Deutsche Bank Research / European investment initiatives: disappointing volume and momentum , October 2014
  • 31. Name – June 11, 2010 – 31 Governmental Initiatives: Enhancing Role of EIB (II) – EIF Related ► EIB holds a 62% share of the European Investment Fund (EIF) which provides venture capital to small and medium size enterprises. The success of the measures of the EIB and the EIF with regard to public and private investment in the Euro crisis has not yet been fully assessed. ► Currently discussed options to extend EIB activities ► Option 1: Increase flexibility of ESIF Financial instruments. Make use of financial resources coming from EU budget more flexible to leverage them in national ESIF financial instruments. ► Option 2: Increase special activities reserve. Investment activities which carry a higher risk are normally backed up by a “special activities reserve” which currently amounts up to EUR 6.1bn. One possibility would be to increase the EIB’s special activity reserve. Problem: Keep AAA Rating or raise more capital from member states which run contrary to austerity efforts ► Option 3: Strengthen the capital base of the EIF - requires additional resources coming from the EU member states. This could be done by rededication of resources coming from ESM or EFSM ■ Rededication of financial resources coming from the ESM (either guarantees or parts of the cash reserve) to recapitalize the European Investment Fund (EIF). Problem: Objections by some Euro area countries – and unanimity is required in order to redefine the purpose of ESM guarantees. ■ Politically more feasible would be the rededication of financial means coming from the small European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM), a EUR 60bn facility which is attached to the European Commission and which complemented the EFSF in its financial aid to Ireland (EUR 22.5bn) and Portugal (EUR 26bn) back in 2010 and 2011. Currently a sum of about EUR 11.5bn would still be available. However, there are also plans to rededicate these financial means to the balance of payments facility – a rescue mechanism of Non-EMU countries. Source: Deutsche Bank Research / European investment initiatives: disappointing volume and momentum , October 2014