Deloitte TMT Predictions 2017 (August)

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TMT Predictions 2017
Think about the future
August 2017

Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 2
TMT Predictions was first published in 2001

TMT Predictions report card
Rating Prediction
Women in IT jobs: It is about education, but it is also about more
than just education
Trailing millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation
Touch commerce: the mobile online checkout gets an express lane
Graphene: research now, reap next decade
Cognitive technologies enhance enterprise software
Report card
Legend
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Came true, but less
than we predicted.
At least so far
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
Technology

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 2014 2015 2016
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percentage of US IT workers who are female

Rating Prediction
Virtual reality: a billion dollar niche
Mobile games: leading, but less lucrative
Mobile ad-blockers: saved by the app?
The award for stable box office revenues in the face of digital media
goes to…
US TV: erosion, not implosion
European football scores $30 billion
eSports: bigger and smaller than you think
Report card
Legend
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Came true, but less
than we predicted.
At least so far
Media

Rating Prediction
The dawn of the Gigabit Internet age: every bit counts
Used smartphones: the $17 billion market you may never have
heard of
The rise of the data exclusive
VoLTE/VoWiFi: capacity, reach and capability
Photo sharing: trillions and rising
Report card
Legend
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Came true, but less
than we predicted.
At least so far
Telecommunications

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total prediction accuracy

TMT Predictions 2017
Come. Dare to visit the future.

Launched
2005
Up to
3 Mbps
Launched
2009
Up to
21 Mbps
Launched
2010
Up to
42 Mbps
Launched
2011
Up to
75 Mbps
Launched
2012
Up to
150 Mbps
Launched
2015
Up to
260 Mbps
Launched
August 2015
Up to
335 Mbps
3G 4G 4G LTE LTE LTE LTEADVANCED ADVANCED

Coverage shown is approximate and actual coverage may vary. Theoretical peak speeds may vary by region. Reception and expected speeds may vary due to topography,
environmental conditions, device type and other factors.
Select coverage type
4G LTE 4G HSPA+ Extended (EXT)
LTE Advanced (LTE-A)
LTE
HSPA+ Extended (EXT)

Progress LTE capabilities towards 5G
In parallel driving 4G and 5G to their fullest potential
Advanced MIMO Unlicensed spectrum eLAA
256QAM
FelCIC Internet of Things Enhanced CA
FDD-TDD CA Massive/FD-MIMO
Carrier aggregation
SON+ CoMP Device-to-device
Dual connectivity Low Latency
Shared Broadcast
V2X
2015 2020+

Indoor Location Usage Intent
THE GREAT INDOORS
Base: Total (n=1,000)
Q4. How likely would you be to use indoor location technology to find and/or direct you to the following?
22%
14%
13%
11%
8%
8%
29%
26%
22%
24%
16%
14%
26%
29%
28%
30%
31%
27%
12%
17%
19%
19%
25%
26%
12%
14%
17%
16%
21%
25%
Vehicle in a parking lot
Store in a mall or shopping centre
Product or location in a grocery store
Product or location in a retail store
Seat at a movie, concert or sporting event
Seat on an airplane or train
Definitely would use Probably would use May or may not use
Probably would not use Definitely would not use
Top-2 Box
51%
40%
35%
35%
24%
22%

Canadian ownership of phones with fingerprint readers, usage of fingerprint readers
Question. Does your mobile phone
have a fingerprint reader?
Question. Which, if any, of the methods listed below have you
used to identify yourself when unlocking your phone, authorizing
mobile payments or other transactions? (fingerprint reader)
40%
52%
8%
25%
75%
Source: Canada edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, May–Jun 2017Weighted base 1: Respondents who own or have access to a smartphone (1,587)
Weighted base 2: All people who say that their phone has a fingerprint reader (636)
Yes, my mobile phone has a fingerprint reader
No, my mobile phone does not have a fingerprint reader
I don’t know
Do not use fingerprint reader
Use fingerprint reader

Three authentication factors
Know
Are
Have

Global tablet shipments
(in millions of units)
Source: IDC worldwide quarterly tablet tracker.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Q1
'17
Q2
'17
Quarterly shipments Rolling 4Q total

Which, if any, is your preferred device
for each of the following activities?
CANADA 2017 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-75
Watch live TV TV 67% TV 67% TV 67% TV 59% TV 63% TV 68% TV 72% TV 71% TV 68%
Watch TV programs via catch-up services TV 39% TV 39% TV 39% TV 37% TV 40% TV 44% TV 42% TV 38% TV 27%
Stream films and/or TV series TV 40% TV 38% TV 41% PC 39% TV 47% TV 45% TV 39% TV 37% TV 31%
Watch short videos PC 48% PC 52% PC 44% PC 41% PC 44% PC 42% PC 52% PC 52% PC 56%
Online search PC 65% PC 71% PC 60% PC 49% PC 59% PC 60% PC 71% PC 73% PC 76%
Browse shopping websites PC 63% PC 67% PC 60% PC 58% PC 62% PC 60% PC 66% PC 69% PC 64%
Make online purchases PC 67% PC 71% PC 64% PC 61% PC 66% PC 66% PC 73% PC 71% PC 64%
Check bank balances PC 54% PC 60% PC 48% Phone 56% PC 46% PC 51% PC 56% PC 67% PC 65%
Read the news PC 42% PC 47% PC 37% Phone 35% PC/Phone 37% PC 41% PC 48% PC 51% PC 40%
Video calls PC 29% PC 30% PC 27% PC/Phone 34% Phone 32% Phone 25% PC 27% PC 33% PC 27%
Check social networks PC 37% PC 42% Phone 41% Phone 67% Phone 54% Phone 45% PC 47% PC 46% PC 46%
Play games PC 26% PC 29% Phone 27% Phone 40% Phone 29% Phone 26% PC 29% PC 33% PC 37%
Record videos Phone 47% Phone 44% Phone 50% Phone 69% Phone 63% Phone 57% Phone 42% Phone 25% Phone 18%
Take photos Phone 74% Phone 72% Phone 75% Phone 82% Phone 82% Phone 79% Phone 76% Phone 60% Phone 56%
Voice calls using the Internet Phone 28% Phone 28% Phone 29% Phone 46% Phone 41% Phone 34% Phone 23% PC/Phone 14% Tablet 13%
PC (desktop or laptop) (70.5/135) 52.2%
Phone (37.5/135) 27.8%
Tablet (1/135) 0.7%
TV (26/135) 21.7%

Financial transactions and channel preference: 18-35 year olds
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Check balance Review
monthly
statements
Transfer funds
between my
accounts
Transfer funds
to someone
else/payment
International
transfer
Buy/sell stocks Line of
credit/small
loan
Car
loan/mortgage
Mobile
Computer
Phone
Physical

Tablet and smartphone ownership, by age of child
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Age 3 Age 4 Age 5 Age 6 Age 7 Age 8 Age 9 Age 10 Age 11 Age 12 Age 13 Age 14 Age 15
Smartphone
Tablet
10%
21%
24%
38%
34% 36%
48%
51%
57%
48%
43%
45%
0% 0% 0% 0%
7%
11%
18%
41%
59%
63%
76%
84%
93%
62%
2016

Device children would miss the most, by individual age
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Age 5 Age 6 Age 7 Age 8 Age 9 Age 10 Age 11 Age 12 Age 13 Age 14 Age 15
Mobile phone
Tablet
TV set
16%
29%
22%
25%
15%
25%
17%
7%
4% 4% 3% 4% 13%
21%
26%
35%
46%
51%
2016
65%
7%
20%
10% 8%
53%
44%
37%
47%
31%
28%
12%
17% 17% 15%

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014 2015 2016 2017
Time Shifted
Live
US daily traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q1
Source: Nielsen

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2015 2016 2017
Time shifted
Source: Nielsen

Source: Nielsen Total Audience Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2016, 2015,
Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 65+ 2016 65+ 2017 65+
Time Shifted
Live
(and 65+)
Source: Nielsen

TMT Predictions 2017 49
US:18-34 year olds spend 4.2x more time watching TV than using Facebook on a daily
basis
147
35
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
TV Facebook
U.S. 18-34 age group: average time spent (minutes/day)
Source: Nielsen’s Total audience report Q4’15; Comscore’s Cross Platform Future in Focus 2016 U.S. report

#adlergic

IT spending market for data centres, software and IT services
2016
(100% = $1,400 billion)
($ billions)
$359bn
$1,041bn
IT-as-a-Service Traditional
Source: Deloitte Global analysis
$533bn
$977bn
2018
(100% = $1,510 billion)

2% 5%
11%
18%
31%
37%
20%
31%
37%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current Year Next 2-3 years
%ofrespondents
>75% 51-75% 26-50% 10-25% <10%
Majority organizations have adopted IT-as-a-Service offerings and this adoption rate
and the share IT spend on FC offerings will continue to rise in the next 2 – 3 years
Annual enterprise technology spend on
Flexible Consumption Offerings

Risk of car driver fatality calculated using logistic regression
Source: Transport Research Laboratory (extracted from the OTS and CCIS dataset),
Department for Transport, 2010.
Car drivers in
frontal impacts
(all ages, belted,
impacts with
another car,
n=620)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Risk of car driver fatality
Delta-v (MPH)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

AUTONOMOUS EMERGENCY BRAKING
The Discovery Sport’s advanced Autonomous
Emergency Braking system detects when a
collision is imminent and intervenes by braking
to avoid or mitigate the impact.
FULL BRAKING
ABOVE & BEYOND

Safety is the key…
The most useful technologies across six countries are safety related
Most preferred
Moderately preferred
Least preferred
Sample size – [US: N= 1,722, Germany: N= 1,672, Japan: N= 1,615, South Korea: N= 1,723,
China: N= 1,727, India: N= 1,724]
Description Category US Germany Japan South Korea China India
Recognizes presence of objects on road and avoids collision Safety 52% 53% 62% 52% 54% 45%
Automatically blocks driver from dangerous driving situations Safety 39% 52% 61% 54% 52% 43%
Informs driver of dangerous driving situations Safety 39% 48% 38% 46% 47% 38%
Diagnoses vehicle health and sends maintenance notifications Connected 34% 19% 21% 30% 31% 30%
Automatically takes steps in medical emergency or accident Safety 32% 36% 41% 31% 39% 39%
Enables remote shutdown of vehicle in case of theft Safety 29% 22% 28% 18% 25% 27%
Enables vehicles to communicate with each other and road infrastructure Connected 27% 27% 33% 26% 30% 25%
Helps enhance fuel efficiency (e.g., cylinder deactivation, smaller-sized engines) Fuel efficiency 27% 32% 30% 25% 22% 26%
Prevents hacking into the car making it safe and secure Safety 24% 18% 12% 17% 12% 20%
Enables use of advanced lightweight materials to make vehicles lighter and safer Fuel efficiency 23% 25% 18% 25% 28% 22%
Prevents theft by restricting unauthorized access Safety 22% 27% 16% 13% 15% 24%
Enables interactive display to provide the vehicle’s operational information Cockpit 21% 17% 15% 17% 13% 18%
Enables usage of alternative fuels Fuel efficiency 21% 31% 26% 28% 23% 28%
Automates tasks which increase passenger comfort and convenience Connected 21% 25% 24% 27% 23% 19%
Enables hands-free ability to control the audio, entertainment and climate Cockpit 20% 11% 9% 7% 8% 13%
Lowers the impact on the environment (e.g., lower emissions, conserves energy) Fuel efficiency 19% 27% 16% 20% 16% 24%
Monitors the physical health of the driver Safety 18% 28% 19% 18% 22% 19%
Enables high speed, long distance, highway ‘auto-pilot’ mode Full/partial self-drive 17% 17% 23% 28% 18% 18%
Enables remote/automatic software updates of the vehicle Connected 15% 8% 11% 14% 8% 13%
Coaches the driver to drive safely and potentially save him money Safety 14% 19% 18% 18% 24% 20%
Enables self-driving (e.g., full self-driving cars) Full/partial self-drive 14% 13% 32% 28% 18% 15%
Allows use of smartphone applications through the vehicle dashboard Connected 14% 7% 4% 7% 9% 11%
Assists in locating, reserving, and navigating to a parking space Service enabler 13% 16% 9% 10% 17% 14%
Makes available adjustable settings to enhance vehicle performance Fuel efficiency 12% 10% 14% 18% 12% 17%
Enables the use of self-healing paint to repair minor scratches Miscellaneous 12% 10% 12% 9% 11% 7%
Provides passengers with customized entertainment while driving Cockpit 11% 5% 5% 7% 8% 10%
Automatically pays for toll roads, parking, and priority/commuter lane fees Service enabler 11% 8% 12% 8% 13% 10%
Provides indicators when the vehicle is near places of interest Service enabler 11% 8% 6% 6% 12% 13%
Empowers customer with the ability to design and personalize vehicles Miscellaneous 10% 7% 7% 15% 9% 11%
Allows the driver to control automated systems in his home Service enabler 10% 7% 7% 13% 12% 10%
Enables ultra-small, low-speed, self-driving vehicles for urban environments Full/partial self-drive 9% 10% 14% 13% 15% 12%
Helps manage daily activities Connected 8% 6% 9% 4% 4% 9%
Findings from secondary research indicate that consumers in US, Germany, and China ranked “safety-related technologies” the highest*
*What drivers want

Q. How many times would you estimate you look at your phone in a day?
How you doing? 18-24 year olds checking their phones
0%
100%
86%
73%
48%
23%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Never Over 1 time Over 10 times Over 25 times Over 50 times Over 100 times Over 200 times
Source: Canada edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, May - Jun 2016
Base: All smartphone owners: 1,671
Assuming 16 waking
hours per day, this
means about half of
Canadian 18-24 year
olds check their phone
every 20 minutes.
Assuming 16 waking
hours per day, this
means one in twelve
check their phone
every 5 minutes…
or less.

58%
46%
39%
26%
15%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Q. Do you check your phone in the middle of the night?
I find the screen glow lulls me back to sleep
Base: All smartphone owners: 1,671

Q. How often, if at all, do you have disagreements with each of the following people because they think that you
use your mobile phone too much?
4% 5%
5%
5%
11%
70%
Several times a week
Once a week
Once a fortnight
Once a month
Less often than once a month
Never
With your
partner
Base: All phone owners 1,671
monthly
Q. How often, if at all, do you have disagreements with each of the following people because they think that you
use your mobile phone too much? (Not “never”)
With your
partner
But the picture appears less rosy for younger demographics…
25-34
18-24
35-44
45-54
65+
55-64
35%
30%
18%
13%
9%
37%

-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2013 2014 2015 2016*
NSC Motor Vehicle Fatality Estimates

Doctor, what do these symptoms mean?
1
2
3
4
My smartphone use is interfering with my life
My smartphone use is interfering with my sleep
My smartphone use is interfering with my love life
My smartphone use is actually putting my life at risk

TMT Predictions tailored events
Duncan Stewart can deliver
a presentation for your office/industry.
• Email Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca
• Follow him on Twitter: @dunstewart
• Connect on LinkedIn
• Subscribe to him on Facebook
• Read his blog: dunstewart.wordpress.com

Deloitte TMT Predictions 2017 (August)

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