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Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 1 
INSURANCE IN A 
CHANGING RISK LANDSCAPE 
A report by the research partnership between 
the Santam Group, the WWF, the University of Cape Town 
and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research 
In collaboration with the 
United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative 
Local lessons from 
the Southern Cape of South Africa
2 Insurance in a changing risk landscape 
FOREWORD 
FROM THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME FINANCE INITIATIVE 
There is widespread agreement that effectively tackling climate change requires not only reducing green-house 
gas emissions, but also adapting social, ecological and economic systems. 
With a very high degree of scientific certainty, it is expected that if there is no immediate and significant 
reduction in emissions, the physical impacts of climate change will be too strong to adapt to. Equally, it is 
expected that the climate will change no matter how successful governments and the international com-munity 
are in reducing emissions. This means that certain impacts of climate change are now unavoidable, 
and that there is an urgent need to adapt to them. 
Adaptation is about making livelihoods, communities, societies and economies resilient to the adverse im-pacts 
of a changing climate. Essentially, climate change-related risks can be viewed in two categories of 
environmental change. The first relates to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather 
events such as floods, storms, hurricanes and droughts. The second relates to ongoing, long-term changes 
including sea level rise, desertification and the disappearance of glaciers as freshwater reservoirs. To be 
holistic, adaptation efforts need to address both categories. 
Insurance is a natural form of adaptation to risks. These risks include climate change-related risks, particu-larly 
the first category described above. By transferring risks to the insurance industry, individuals, house-holds 
and businesses obtain a financial safety net in case livelihoods, business operations and other eco-nomic 
activities are impacted by weather-related events. Financial risk transfer is only one form of benefit 
that the insurance industry brings to its clients. Physical risk management—including the identification, 
assessment, prevention and reduction of risks—is the bedrock of insurance. Thus, enhancing physical risk 
management directly underpins the financial risk transfer benefit afforded by insurance coverage. Proactive 
risk management measures benefit insurance clients and the communities within which such measures 
are implemented. In other words, reducing risk benefits all parties exposed, be it clients, communities, the 
insurance industry or governments. 
Yet there are constraints to the role insurance can play. So-called slow onset events such as sea level rise, 
desertification and glacier disappearance pose insurability issues. Insurance is a commercial activity and 
clients need to have access to and be able to afford insurance. The stark reality is that those most vulnerable 
to climate change-related risks—low-income communities in developing countries—are those that have 
hardly access to and least able to afford insurance. For example, Africa is the region with the lowest insur-ance 
penetration and insurance density. 
These constraints, and the fact that insurance markets are highly regulated and dependent on prudential 
policy and regulatory frameworks, make a case for public-private approaches to risk management and risk 
transfer solutions. It is therefore instructive to explore how the insurance industry can work together effec-tively 
with local and national governments and the intergovernmental community to develop and implement 
such solutions, and bring them to scale. 
Adaptation efforts stemming from the international level such as the loss and damage work programme of 
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the climate change and ecosystem-based adaptation 
work programmes of UNEP, and the Principles for Sustainable Insurance Initiative and climate change work 
programme of UNEP Finance Initiative; and efforts from the local level such as this report on insurance and 
the risk landscape in the Southern Cape of South Africa, all have a common thread—they pursue a holistic 
and integrated approach to risk management in order to build climate and disaster-resilient communities. 
The launch of this collaborative report during the 2011 UN Climate Change Conference in South Africa of-fers 
a concrete and timely example of how working together can bring about effective adaptation where it 
makes a real impact—on the ground. 
Paul Clements-Hunt 
Head 
United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative
Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 3 
CONTENTS 
I. BACKGROUND -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 
II. INTRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 
III. CASE STUDY FINDINGS ON RISK -------------------------------------------------------- 7 
IV. RECOMMENDATIONS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 
V. LOOKING AHEAD ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12 
VI. CONCLUSION --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 
VII. REFERENCES -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 
VIII. ABOUT THE PARTNERS ------------------------------------------------------------------ 15 
THE CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS REPORT 
Santam 
Vanessa Otto-Mentz, Head, Strategy Unit 
Herman de Meyer, Manager, Underwriting 
Edmond Lee, Strategy Analyst, Strategy Unit 
Donald Kau, Head, Corporate Affairs 
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 
Jeanne Nel, Scientist, Integrative Spatial Ecosystem Assessment 
Belinda Reyers, Scientist, Ecosystem Services & Risk Assessment 
David Le Maitre, Scientist, Flood Risk Modelling 
Greg Forsyth, Scientist, Fire Risk Modelling 
Andre Theron, Scientist, Coastal Risk Modelling 
Sally Archibald, Scientist, Integrative Risk Modelling 
Francois Engelbrecht, Scientist, Atmospheric & Climate Change Modelling 
Lara van Niekerk, Estuary Scientist 
Kristy Faccer, Scientist, Sustainability Science & Resource Economics 
University of Cape Town (UCT) and its research associate 
Clifford Shearing, Director, UCT Centre of Criminology 
Tom Herbstein, Senior Research Coordinator, UCT Centre of Criminology 
Jan Froestad, Associate Professor, Department of Administration & Organisational Theory, 
University of Bergen 
WWF South Africa 
Deon Nel, Head, Biodiversity Unit 
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 
Butch Bacani, Programme Leader, Principles for Sustainable Insurance Initiative & Insurance 
Commission, UNEP Finance Initiative 
Remco Fischer, Programme Officer, Climate Change, UNEP Finance Initiative 
Keith Alverson, Head, Climate Change Adaptation & Terrestrial Ecosystems Branch and Climate 
Change Adaptation Unit, UNEP 
Kaveh Zahedi, Climate Change Coordinator, UNEP 
The compilers of this study wish to thank all those 
who assisted and contributed to the finalisation of this report.
4 Insurance in a changing risk landscape 
I.BACKGROUND 
“Risk and resilience in a changing world: the insurance collaboration” is a strategic research 
partnership between the Santam Group, the CSIR, the UCT’s Centre of Criminology and the WWF 
in South Africa. This partnership aims to develop a practical and integrated understanding on the 
following components: 
RISK 
RESILIENCE 
ROLE 
RESPONSE 
This report presents key insights gained from the initial assessment phase of this project and 
the additional contributions from the UNEP FI, making this a unique combination of a local study 
teamed with a global perspective showing how insurers can help build climate and disaster-resilient 
communities. 
Understand and describe the socio-ecological risk 
landscape – spatially, temporally and systemically 
Understand and describe the status and main drivers 
of socio-ecological resilience within this landscape 
Understand the role of insurance (formal and informal) in 
reducing risk and increasing resilience in this landscape 
Determine the potential response by the formal insurance 
industry to reducing risk and improving resilience of the socio-ecological 
landscape and that of its business in the area
Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 5 
II. INTRODUCTION 
We live in a time of unprecedented risk. This has led some social commentators to label our society 
as the ‘Risk Society’ (Beck 1992, 2006; Matten 2004), a concept founded on the link between growing 
globalisation and environmental risk (Matten 2004). Global assessments, such as the Millennium 
Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005), provide evidence of dramatic increases in global environmental 
risk (Figure 1) caused by the interaction of a number of systemic factors, including climate change 
which was identified as the top risk by likelihood and impact combined (World Economic Forum’s Global 
Risks report 2011). 
These increased risks have been associated with the following phenomena: 
1 Increased human occupation of localities that are exposed to extreme events, and the increase 
in economic value associated with them; 
2 An increase in the number of extreme events, possibly linked to large scale changes to earth 
systems (e.g. climate change); and 
3 Changes to the regulating ecosystems (e.g. wetlands, riparian zones and natural vegetation) 
that provide buffering capacity to extreme events. These changes are primarily linked to rapid 
global changes in land cover (MEA 2005). 
Figure 1: Numbers of recorded floods and wild fires per continent 
(taken from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005) 
0 
Number of events 
350 FLOODS 
300 
250 
200 
150 
100 
50 
Oceania 
Europe 
Asia 
America 
Africa 
1900-09 
1910-19 
1920-29 
1930-39 
1940-49 
1950-59 
1960-69 
1970-79 
1980-89 
1990-99 
1900-09 
1910-19 
1920-29 
1930-39 
1940-49 
1950-59 
1960-69 
1970-79 
1980-89 
1990-99 
0 
Number of events 
50 WILD FIRES 
45 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
Oceania 
Europe 
Asia 
America 
40 Africa 
10 
5
6 Insurance in a changing risk landscape 
Given these trends, it is important that society is able to find means to cope with higher levels of risk. 
Insurance, a mechanism by which society pools its resources to cope with risk, is such a means. 
Accordingly, the global insurance industry is likely to have a key role to play in this endeavour. And yet, 
the insurance industry will itself need to find ways to carefully navigate these turbulent times. Globally 
insurers have observed an upward trend in weather-related insured losses due to the increase in fre-quency 
and intensity of extreme weather events and the increasing economic cost associated with them. 
Furthermore, these weather-related losses have been growing faster than insurance penetration (Mills 
2005) while insurance density remains low especially in developing countries. This is placing pressure 
on the availability and affordability of insurance, slowing growth in the industry, and most significantly, 
shifting greater risk exposure onto governments and individuals. 
The insurance industry has responded to this challenge by primarily focusing on refining its risk 
predictions and assessments, with a view to more appropriate pricing and contracting of risks (Mills 
2009, Petherick 2011). Unfortunately, a considerable gap still exists between the scale and accuracy of 
predictions that climate scientists can provide and what is required by the insurance industry (Peth-erick 
2011). 
We embarked on a research project with South Africa’s largest short-term insurer, Santam, in the Eden 
District Municipality of South Africa (Figure 2) with a view to exploring these issues at a landscape 
level. The objectives of our study were twofold: 
1 To understand how changes in Eden’s landscape were affecting current and future risk 
exposure to wild fire, flood and sea storm; and 
2 To understand how best the insurance industry could respond to ensure its own viability, as well 
as build the resilience of the socio-ecological system as a whole. 
Figure 2: The location of Eden District Municipality, the focus of this study 
The study area was chosen based on its varied topography, the considerable assets underwritten by 
Santam, as well as the recent volatile weather conditions that the area has experienced. Between 
2003 and 2008 the Western Cape Province, which geographically includes the Southern Cape region, 
experienced eight severe storm events resulting in more than R2.5 billion (approx. US$295 million) 
worth of direct damage (RADAR 2010). More than 70% of this damage occurred in the Eden District 
Municipality. Almost 80% of the ‘special perils’ losses (relating to storm, wind, water, hail/snow) 
incurred by Santam in this area since 1996, occurred within the last five years. 
Knysna 
Karatara 
Sedgefield 
Bergplaats 
George 
Outeniqua 
Sandhoogte 
Herbertsdale 
Oudtshoorn 
Uniondale 
Gouritsmond 
Mossel Bay 
N 
Indian Ocean 
0 12.5 25 50 Kilometers 
Plettenberg Bay 
Climate stations 
Tertiary catchments 
Study area 
STUDY 
AREA
Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 7 
III. CASE STUDY FINDINGS ON RISK 
Our study revealed three major findings in relation to changing risks. 
Climatic changes are driving risks higher 
Historical data and high resolution climate simulation models run by the CSIR (Engelbrecht, 2011) 
indicate that this area has experienced, and will continue to experience, significant changes to its 
climatic conditions. Among these, changes to local temperatures were most significant. Winter and 
spring temperatures in this area have increased by about 1.40C over the past century and are predicted 
to increase a further 10C by 2040. 
Using the MacArthur Fire Danger Index or FDI (MacArthur 1966) and input parameters of temperature, 
wind speed and relative humidity, we were able to show that the number of high fire risk periods (more 
than three days) is likely to increase by approximately 41% for the period 2020 to 2050 compared to 
1960 to 1990 (Figure 3) (Forsyth 2011). This increase is accentuated in the winter due largely to the 
significant increases in temperature during this time. 
Figure 3: Number of high fire risk periods in the area as 
calculated using historical and simulated future climate data 
Furthermore, our climate simulation models demonstrated that the number of intense rainfall days 
(>20mm) per year were predicted to increase modestly by 10% overall for the period 2020 to 2050 
compared to 1960 to 1990 (Le Maitre et al. 2011). However, this trend was much more significant in 
the winter months when a 36% increase was predicted (Figure 4). Again, this was consistent with the 
historical trend which showed an increase in intense rainfall events between 1960 and 2008. 
# high FDI periods (3day) 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 
Year
8 Insurance in a changing risk landscape 
Figure 4: Number of intense rainfall days in the area as 
calculated using historical and simulated future climate data 
Finally, sea storm models indicate that the occurrence of extreme wave run-up events, as recently 
recorded in 2007, is expected to be six times greater due to a predicted sea level rise of 1m by 2100 
(Theron et al. 2011). 
Changes to ecological buffering capacity is as important as climate change 
The second major finding of our study was that local human-induced changes to land cover and the 
buffering capacity of ecosystems was of equal or greater importance in driving increasing risks, when 
compared to climate change. 
Using historical data, we found that the occurrence of invasive alien trees (mostly Pinus sp, Acacia 
sp, and Eucalyptus sp) was the most important driver of significant wild fires in this region (Figure 
5), explaining 37% of the change in fire occurence (Forsyth et al. 2011). While the naturally occurring 
fynbos vegetation of this area is also fire-prone, the occurrence of invasive alien trees increased the 
number of high fire risk areas by between 31% and 37%. 
WINTER 
15 
10 
5 
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 
Year 
ALL SEASONS 
Extreme rain events/year 
40 
30 
20 
10 
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 
Year 
Extreme rain events/year
Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 9 
Figure 5: The functional response of fire occurrence to the occurrence of 
invasive alien plants, using non-linear quantile regression functions 
Figure 6: Expected return period of mean daily run-off under four land cover scenarios 
Furthermore, we found that land cover changes recorded in this area over the past two decades had 
an equal effect on extreme surface water flows, as compared to predicted future increases in extreme 
rainfall events (Le Maitre 2011). We found that the occurrence of large fires in commercial forestry (Pi-nus 
sp.) plantations (recorded in 1996) as well as clear-felling of stands without active rehabilitation, 
could reduce the return period of an extreme flow event of 150mm per day (the flow recorded during 
the 1981 floods) by 40% (Figure 6). 
Finally, using a spatial coastal hazard model developed by the CSIR, it was found that the destruction 
of coastal foredunes and the hardening of surfaces in this area (leading to increased erosion of these 
dunes) was one of the most significant predictors of coastal risk (Theron et al. 2011). 
The implications of these findings are significant for two reasons. First, it points out that human-induced 
impacts on the ecological buffering capacity of the system have an equal or greater impact 
on risk, as compared to future climate change predictions. Second, it points out that the proactive 
management and restoration of these ecological systems has the potential to offset most of the future 
increases in risk related to climatic changes. 
Fire Occurence 
% Alien Invasive Plants 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 
Daily run-off (mm) 
Baseline Clearfell pines Light fire in pines Severe fire in pines 
Return period (years) 
300 
250 
200 
150 
100 
50 
0 
20 40 60 80 100 
1981 flood run-off levels
10 Insurance in a changing risk landscape 
Risk is an emergent property of complex systems 
Our third major finding was that while our models could predict broad changes in risks based on pre-dicted 
climatic changes or human impacts on ecological buffering capacity, the actual risk to any indi-vidual 
asset was an emergent property of non-linear interactions between the different drivers of risk. 
For instance, we have already shown that land cover changes, as observed over the past two decades, 
could almost halve the return period of extreme surface flows of water from a 1 in 75 year event to a 1 
in 45 year event (Le Maitre et al. 2011). Under these circumstances, modelling fine-scale 1 in 50 year 
flood lines based purely on climatic data becomes less valuable in assessing risk. Furthermore, we 
have shown that elevated winter temperatures are driving a higher incidence of winter fires (Figure 
7), and will continue to do so into the future. We have also shown that the incidence of intense rainfall 
events is likely to increase particularly in winter (Figure 4). The combination of an intense rainfall 
event on a recently burnt landscape will greatly enhance run-off and surface flows (DeBano 2000) and, 
therefore, the risk of flooding. Accordingly, even when only considering climatic changes, one needs to 
consider the functional relationship between different drivers and how they interact with each other 
spatially and temporally, to understand the risk to an individual asset. 
This finding is significant in that it cautions against the strong pressure from the insurance industry 
towards ever-finer scale risk assessments to better differentiate and price risks. Within such fast-changing 
complex systems there is a limit to the power of predictive models and therefore the useful-ness 
of ever-finer scale risk assessments. 
Figure 7: Total area burnt in different seasons in the Outeniqua nature reserve, 
within the study area, for two different periods (1970-89 and 1990-2006) 
Hectares burnt 
25 000 
20 000 
15 000 
10 000 
5 000 
- 
Spring Summer Autumn Winter 
1970 - 89 
1990 - 2006
Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 11 
IV. RECOMMENDATIONS 
1 A SYSTEMS VIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT 
In fast-changing complex systems with multiple risk drivers, as described above, we believe 
that systems models that emphasise explanatory power (i.e. how the system behaves under 
different scenarios) are more useful than conventional risk assessment models that focus 
almost exclusively on predictive power. Such systems models will not provide a single neat 
risk probability, but will rather provide a suite of possible risk probabilities based on different 
plausible scenarios for the main risk drivers. 
At the least, this approach will deal more explicitly with uncertainty and avoid the false sense 
of security that may be provided by predictive models. More importantly, these systems models 
have the potential of focusing the insurance industry on the real drivers of risk. This will allow 
the industry to complement its risk assessment with effective risk management, targeted at the 
sources or drivers of risk. 
2 FROM RISK ASSESSMENT TO RISK MANAGEMENT 
Our findings warn of the limitations of a strategy that is solely reliant on ever-finer scale risk 
assessment with the aim of more accurate risk differentiation and pricing. In our view, the 
insurance industry would be better served by complementing its risk assessment with proactive risk 
management aimed at those systemic drivers of risk that are within its potential realm of influence. 
A very encouraging outcome of our work was that for each of the risks we studied (i.e. wild fires, 
floods, and sea storms), we were able to identify drivers of change in the local landscape that had 
the same if not greater effect on risk, compared to climatic drivers. Proactive management of 
these local drivers of risk could therefore offset most of the increased risk associated with climate 
change. This is the basis of ‘ecosystem-based adaptation’ to climate change (IUCN 2008). 
For wildfires, we identified the occurrence of invasive alien trees as a key driver in the local 
landscape. The control or eradication of these fire-prone invasive trees provides a practical risk 
management response that has the potential of nullifying future increases in fire risk associated 
primarily with increased temperatures in this region. 
For flooding, we identified local changes in land cover, specifically clear-felling of large 
tracts of commercial forestry plantations that were not replanted and large fires within these 
plantations, as a key driver of risk. Active rehabilitation of natural vegetation following clear-felling, 
and improved fire management practices in these areas, are therefore two practical risk 
management responses. While our study focused on land cover changes related to forestry (due 
to data availability), it should be noted that other land cover changes such as the degradation of 
wetlands and river riparian zones could have an equal effect on the risk of flooding. The active 
rehabilitation of these ecosystems also provides practical risk management responses. 
Finally, we found that the degradation of foredunes, the artificial hardening of the coastal area, 
and the reduction in sand availability, were key drivers of sea storm risk in the local landscape. 
Active rehabilitation of dune vegetation, stabilisation and rebuilding of foredunes and sand 
replenishment, as well as reduction of artificial hardening activities, provide practical options 
for risk management in this coastal zone.
12 Insurance in a changing risk landscape 
V. LOOKING AHEAD 
In order to understand how the insurance industry can effectively move to-wards 
more proactive risk management, we need to first acknowledge the 
mutually dependent relationship between governments, society and the in-surance 
industry. The absence of a viable insurance industry, or even a re-duction 
in the insured segment of society, will shift greater risk exposure 
onto governments and societal structures (such as community-based and 
non-profit organisations). It is therefore in the interest of governments and 
society that the private insurance industry remains viable and covers as broad 
a segment of society as possible. Similarly, the insurance industry is depend-ent 
of governments and society for the development and implementation of 
prudential legislation, policies and management systems that are critical to 
the insurance industry’s identification, assessment and management of its 
risk exposure. Increased risks resulting from climate change and ecological 
degradation therefore pose a shared risk to the insurance industry, govern-ments 
and society. This provides a strong incentive for collaboration. 
Having acknowledged the existence of a shared risk, the critical question becomes how one moves 
towards a shared response or, as coined by Porter & Kramer (2011), towards creating ‘shared value’. 
Porter & Kramer (2011) urge corporations to move beyond their schizophrenia of ‘maximising profits 
for shareholders’ on the one hand, and ‘corporate social responsibility’ on the other; to a more uni-fying 
concept of creating ‘shared value’ with society. For clarity, the concept of shared value is not 
about corporations ‘redistributing value’ but rather about finding ways of expanding the total pool 
of economic and social value. Shared value creation therefore focuses on ‘identifying and expanding 
the connections between societal and economic progress’ (Porter & Kramer 2011). Porter & Kramer 
(2011) suggest that corporations can create value by identifying gaps or failures in the frameworks 
that connect societal and economic progress, and building these connections. 
In the context of our case study, we believe that the insurance industry needs to identify and expand 
connections to key societal nodes within the local landscape that have the greatest potential to create 
shared value. In selecting these nodes for shared value creation, the insurance industry will need to 
consider two primary factors: 
1 The strength of the current connection between the insurance 
industry and key nodes; and 
2 The power of these nodes to create value or leverage change on 
the key local drivers of risk. 
For instance, the insurance industry has a strong connection with its clients (i.e. policyholders) who 
currently lack the power to leverage change over the local drivers of risk. This is largely due to lack of 
information and cohesive action. So while this node has high potential power, it is currently unrealised 
because of these gaps. The insurance industry can therefore create shared value by providing scien-tific 
information on the real systemic drivers of risk in the local landscape, and creating mechanisms 
that allow and encourage clients to influence the local drivers of risk through a focused and cohesive 
approach. 
Similarly, local municipal governments have a high degree of power over many of the local drivers 
of risk, but the connection between the insurance industry and local municipalities is currently very 
weak. This is mainly due to the absence of a shared agenda and therefore a shared systemic under-standing 
of how the local drivers of risk, leading to joint response projects, would facilitate the devel-opment 
of a shared agenda and strengthen this connection. 
FROM 
SHARED 
RISK TO 
SHARED 
VALUE
Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 13 
As a final example, there are a number of ecological agencies that are engaged in ecological man-agement 
and rehabilitation projects in the Eden area. These agencies have a high potential power 
to address local drivers of risk (e.g. control of invasive alien trees, rehabilitation of wetlands and 
foredunes) but are currently each working according to disparate and narrow mandates, and have no 
connection with societal risk and the insurance industry. Shared value creation opportunities lie in 
building a stronger connection with and between these agencies, thereby increasing their alignment 
and power to address specific local drivers of risk in this landscape. 
VI. CONCLUSION 
The insurance industry is the single largest global industry, with premiums amounting to some 8% of 
the global Gross Domestic Product, and some 11% of global assets under its management (Petherick 
2011). It also has a very long reach, connecting social, economic and ecological systems. 
As such, the global insurance industry has 
immense power to address the significant 
shared risks associated with climate change 
and ecosystem degradation, and through this 
be a catalyst for creating shared value. 
In this study, we have shown how this may be practically achieved at a local landscape level. We be-lieve 
this work provides generic lessons as to how this may be achieved at a larger scale, as well as 
in other industries. 
At an international level, one clear yet largely untapped opportunity of creating shared value is linking 
the risk management and risk transfer expertise and activities of the global insurance industry with the 
efforts of United Nations agencies, civil society organisations and academia in building the resilience of 
communities to climate change and ecosystem-related risks. The collaboration of various organisations 
for this study gives a good indication of how this opportunity can be tapped and expanded.
14 Insurance in a changing risk landscape 
VII. REFERENCES 
Beck, Ulrich (1992) Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage 
Beck (2006) 
World Economic Forum’s Global Risks report – 6th edition (2011) 
DeBano L.F. (2000) The role of fire and soil heating on water repellency in wild land environ-ments: 
a review. Journal of Hydrology, 231-232, 195-206 
Le Maitre, D. (2011) 
MacArthur (1966) 
Matten (2004) 
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) 
Mills (2005) Science 
Mills (2009) 
Nel. J. et al. (2011) Understanding the implication of global change for the Insurance industry: 
The Eden case study. CSIR Report: 
CSIR/NRE/ECOS/2011/0063/B 
Porter & Kramer (2011) 
Petherick (2011) 
RADAR (2010)
Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 15 
VIII. ABOUT THE PARTNERS 
Santam is the leading short-term insurer in South Africa with over 90 years of experience and a mar-ket 
share exceeding 22%. Santam focuses on corporate, commercial and personal markets through-out 
South African and has business interests in other emerging markets such as India, Malawi and 
Botswana. Santam joined UNEP FI in 2009 and is an active member of its Insurance Commission 
leading the development of the UNEP FI Principles for Sustainable Insurance, which will be launched 
at the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development. Santam is also the first African insurer to 
join ClimateWise and is currently a member of its Managing Committee. 
www.santam.co.za 
The WWF was established internationally in 1961 and has become one of the world’s largest and 
most respected independent conservation organisations, with a global network active in over 100 
countries and more than 1300 conservation projects underway around the world. WWF’s mission 
is to stop the degradation of the earth’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans 
live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world’s biological diversity, ensuring that the use of 
renewable natural resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful 
consumption. 
www.wwf.org.za 
The UCT Centre of Criminology is a research unit of the Department of Public Law, Faculty of Law at 
the University of Cape Town. The Centre aims to initiate, coordinate and develop research and outreach 
services within the broad field of Criminology, and to promote interest in all aspects of the discipline. 
The Centre currently focuses its research efforts in two major domains: physical security where its 
primary focus is on developments in policing; and environmental security where it is exploring the 
governance of security in relation to global environmental change, including climate change. 
www.criminology.uct.ac.za 
The CSIR is one of the leading scientific and technology research, development and implementation 
organisations in Africa. Constituted by an Act of Parliament in 1945 as a science council, the CSIR un-dertakes 
directed and multidisciplinary research, technological innovation as well as industrial and 
scientific development to improve the quality of life of the country’s people. The CSIR is committed 
to supporting innovation in South Africa to improve national competitiveness in the global economy. 
Science and technology services and solutions are provided in support of various stakeholders, and 
opportunities are identified where new technologies can be further developed and exploited in the 
private and public sectors for commercial and social benefit. The CSIR’s shareholder is the South 
African Parliament, held in proxy by the Minister of Science and Technology. 
www.csir.co.za 
UNEP FI is a partnership between UNEP — the United Nations system’s designated entity for ad-dressing 
environmental issues at the global and regional levels — and the global financial sector. It is 
the oldest partnership between the UN and the financial sector. Through UNEP FI, UNEP works with 
200 insurance companies, banks and investment firms worldwide to understand the impacts of en-vironmental, 
social and governance issues on financial performance and sustainable development. 
With a global work programme spanning research, training, events and regional activities, UNEP FI 
identifies, promotes and realises the adoption of best environmental and sustainability practice at all 
levels of financial institution operations. 
www.unepfi.org
16 Insurance in a changing risk landscape 
UNEP job n0 DTI/1478/GE

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Insuring Climate Resilience

  • 1. Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 1 INSURANCE IN A CHANGING RISK LANDSCAPE A report by the research partnership between the Santam Group, the WWF, the University of Cape Town and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research In collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa
  • 2. 2 Insurance in a changing risk landscape FOREWORD FROM THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME FINANCE INITIATIVE There is widespread agreement that effectively tackling climate change requires not only reducing green-house gas emissions, but also adapting social, ecological and economic systems. With a very high degree of scientific certainty, it is expected that if there is no immediate and significant reduction in emissions, the physical impacts of climate change will be too strong to adapt to. Equally, it is expected that the climate will change no matter how successful governments and the international com-munity are in reducing emissions. This means that certain impacts of climate change are now unavoidable, and that there is an urgent need to adapt to them. Adaptation is about making livelihoods, communities, societies and economies resilient to the adverse im-pacts of a changing climate. Essentially, climate change-related risks can be viewed in two categories of environmental change. The first relates to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods, storms, hurricanes and droughts. The second relates to ongoing, long-term changes including sea level rise, desertification and the disappearance of glaciers as freshwater reservoirs. To be holistic, adaptation efforts need to address both categories. Insurance is a natural form of adaptation to risks. These risks include climate change-related risks, particu-larly the first category described above. By transferring risks to the insurance industry, individuals, house-holds and businesses obtain a financial safety net in case livelihoods, business operations and other eco-nomic activities are impacted by weather-related events. Financial risk transfer is only one form of benefit that the insurance industry brings to its clients. Physical risk management—including the identification, assessment, prevention and reduction of risks—is the bedrock of insurance. Thus, enhancing physical risk management directly underpins the financial risk transfer benefit afforded by insurance coverage. Proactive risk management measures benefit insurance clients and the communities within which such measures are implemented. In other words, reducing risk benefits all parties exposed, be it clients, communities, the insurance industry or governments. Yet there are constraints to the role insurance can play. So-called slow onset events such as sea level rise, desertification and glacier disappearance pose insurability issues. Insurance is a commercial activity and clients need to have access to and be able to afford insurance. The stark reality is that those most vulnerable to climate change-related risks—low-income communities in developing countries—are those that have hardly access to and least able to afford insurance. For example, Africa is the region with the lowest insur-ance penetration and insurance density. These constraints, and the fact that insurance markets are highly regulated and dependent on prudential policy and regulatory frameworks, make a case for public-private approaches to risk management and risk transfer solutions. It is therefore instructive to explore how the insurance industry can work together effec-tively with local and national governments and the intergovernmental community to develop and implement such solutions, and bring them to scale. Adaptation efforts stemming from the international level such as the loss and damage work programme of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the climate change and ecosystem-based adaptation work programmes of UNEP, and the Principles for Sustainable Insurance Initiative and climate change work programme of UNEP Finance Initiative; and efforts from the local level such as this report on insurance and the risk landscape in the Southern Cape of South Africa, all have a common thread—they pursue a holistic and integrated approach to risk management in order to build climate and disaster-resilient communities. The launch of this collaborative report during the 2011 UN Climate Change Conference in South Africa of-fers a concrete and timely example of how working together can bring about effective adaptation where it makes a real impact—on the ground. Paul Clements-Hunt Head United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative
  • 3. Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 3 CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 II. INTRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 III. CASE STUDY FINDINGS ON RISK -------------------------------------------------------- 7 IV. RECOMMENDATIONS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 V. LOOKING AHEAD ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12 VI. CONCLUSION --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 VII. REFERENCES -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 VIII. ABOUT THE PARTNERS ------------------------------------------------------------------ 15 THE CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS REPORT Santam Vanessa Otto-Mentz, Head, Strategy Unit Herman de Meyer, Manager, Underwriting Edmond Lee, Strategy Analyst, Strategy Unit Donald Kau, Head, Corporate Affairs Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) Jeanne Nel, Scientist, Integrative Spatial Ecosystem Assessment Belinda Reyers, Scientist, Ecosystem Services & Risk Assessment David Le Maitre, Scientist, Flood Risk Modelling Greg Forsyth, Scientist, Fire Risk Modelling Andre Theron, Scientist, Coastal Risk Modelling Sally Archibald, Scientist, Integrative Risk Modelling Francois Engelbrecht, Scientist, Atmospheric & Climate Change Modelling Lara van Niekerk, Estuary Scientist Kristy Faccer, Scientist, Sustainability Science & Resource Economics University of Cape Town (UCT) and its research associate Clifford Shearing, Director, UCT Centre of Criminology Tom Herbstein, Senior Research Coordinator, UCT Centre of Criminology Jan Froestad, Associate Professor, Department of Administration & Organisational Theory, University of Bergen WWF South Africa Deon Nel, Head, Biodiversity Unit United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Butch Bacani, Programme Leader, Principles for Sustainable Insurance Initiative & Insurance Commission, UNEP Finance Initiative Remco Fischer, Programme Officer, Climate Change, UNEP Finance Initiative Keith Alverson, Head, Climate Change Adaptation & Terrestrial Ecosystems Branch and Climate Change Adaptation Unit, UNEP Kaveh Zahedi, Climate Change Coordinator, UNEP The compilers of this study wish to thank all those who assisted and contributed to the finalisation of this report.
  • 4. 4 Insurance in a changing risk landscape I.BACKGROUND “Risk and resilience in a changing world: the insurance collaboration” is a strategic research partnership between the Santam Group, the CSIR, the UCT’s Centre of Criminology and the WWF in South Africa. This partnership aims to develop a practical and integrated understanding on the following components: RISK RESILIENCE ROLE RESPONSE This report presents key insights gained from the initial assessment phase of this project and the additional contributions from the UNEP FI, making this a unique combination of a local study teamed with a global perspective showing how insurers can help build climate and disaster-resilient communities. Understand and describe the socio-ecological risk landscape – spatially, temporally and systemically Understand and describe the status and main drivers of socio-ecological resilience within this landscape Understand the role of insurance (formal and informal) in reducing risk and increasing resilience in this landscape Determine the potential response by the formal insurance industry to reducing risk and improving resilience of the socio-ecological landscape and that of its business in the area
  • 5. Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 5 II. INTRODUCTION We live in a time of unprecedented risk. This has led some social commentators to label our society as the ‘Risk Society’ (Beck 1992, 2006; Matten 2004), a concept founded on the link between growing globalisation and environmental risk (Matten 2004). Global assessments, such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005), provide evidence of dramatic increases in global environmental risk (Figure 1) caused by the interaction of a number of systemic factors, including climate change which was identified as the top risk by likelihood and impact combined (World Economic Forum’s Global Risks report 2011). These increased risks have been associated with the following phenomena: 1 Increased human occupation of localities that are exposed to extreme events, and the increase in economic value associated with them; 2 An increase in the number of extreme events, possibly linked to large scale changes to earth systems (e.g. climate change); and 3 Changes to the regulating ecosystems (e.g. wetlands, riparian zones and natural vegetation) that provide buffering capacity to extreme events. These changes are primarily linked to rapid global changes in land cover (MEA 2005). Figure 1: Numbers of recorded floods and wild fires per continent (taken from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005) 0 Number of events 350 FLOODS 300 250 200 150 100 50 Oceania Europe Asia America Africa 1900-09 1910-19 1920-29 1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 1900-09 1910-19 1920-29 1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 0 Number of events 50 WILD FIRES 45 35 30 25 20 15 Oceania Europe Asia America 40 Africa 10 5
  • 6. 6 Insurance in a changing risk landscape Given these trends, it is important that society is able to find means to cope with higher levels of risk. Insurance, a mechanism by which society pools its resources to cope with risk, is such a means. Accordingly, the global insurance industry is likely to have a key role to play in this endeavour. And yet, the insurance industry will itself need to find ways to carefully navigate these turbulent times. Globally insurers have observed an upward trend in weather-related insured losses due to the increase in fre-quency and intensity of extreme weather events and the increasing economic cost associated with them. Furthermore, these weather-related losses have been growing faster than insurance penetration (Mills 2005) while insurance density remains low especially in developing countries. This is placing pressure on the availability and affordability of insurance, slowing growth in the industry, and most significantly, shifting greater risk exposure onto governments and individuals. The insurance industry has responded to this challenge by primarily focusing on refining its risk predictions and assessments, with a view to more appropriate pricing and contracting of risks (Mills 2009, Petherick 2011). Unfortunately, a considerable gap still exists between the scale and accuracy of predictions that climate scientists can provide and what is required by the insurance industry (Peth-erick 2011). We embarked on a research project with South Africa’s largest short-term insurer, Santam, in the Eden District Municipality of South Africa (Figure 2) with a view to exploring these issues at a landscape level. The objectives of our study were twofold: 1 To understand how changes in Eden’s landscape were affecting current and future risk exposure to wild fire, flood and sea storm; and 2 To understand how best the insurance industry could respond to ensure its own viability, as well as build the resilience of the socio-ecological system as a whole. Figure 2: The location of Eden District Municipality, the focus of this study The study area was chosen based on its varied topography, the considerable assets underwritten by Santam, as well as the recent volatile weather conditions that the area has experienced. Between 2003 and 2008 the Western Cape Province, which geographically includes the Southern Cape region, experienced eight severe storm events resulting in more than R2.5 billion (approx. US$295 million) worth of direct damage (RADAR 2010). More than 70% of this damage occurred in the Eden District Municipality. Almost 80% of the ‘special perils’ losses (relating to storm, wind, water, hail/snow) incurred by Santam in this area since 1996, occurred within the last five years. Knysna Karatara Sedgefield Bergplaats George Outeniqua Sandhoogte Herbertsdale Oudtshoorn Uniondale Gouritsmond Mossel Bay N Indian Ocean 0 12.5 25 50 Kilometers Plettenberg Bay Climate stations Tertiary catchments Study area STUDY AREA
  • 7. Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 7 III. CASE STUDY FINDINGS ON RISK Our study revealed three major findings in relation to changing risks. Climatic changes are driving risks higher Historical data and high resolution climate simulation models run by the CSIR (Engelbrecht, 2011) indicate that this area has experienced, and will continue to experience, significant changes to its climatic conditions. Among these, changes to local temperatures were most significant. Winter and spring temperatures in this area have increased by about 1.40C over the past century and are predicted to increase a further 10C by 2040. Using the MacArthur Fire Danger Index or FDI (MacArthur 1966) and input parameters of temperature, wind speed and relative humidity, we were able to show that the number of high fire risk periods (more than three days) is likely to increase by approximately 41% for the period 2020 to 2050 compared to 1960 to 1990 (Figure 3) (Forsyth 2011). This increase is accentuated in the winter due largely to the significant increases in temperature during this time. Figure 3: Number of high fire risk periods in the area as calculated using historical and simulated future climate data Furthermore, our climate simulation models demonstrated that the number of intense rainfall days (>20mm) per year were predicted to increase modestly by 10% overall for the period 2020 to 2050 compared to 1960 to 1990 (Le Maitre et al. 2011). However, this trend was much more significant in the winter months when a 36% increase was predicted (Figure 4). Again, this was consistent with the historical trend which showed an increase in intense rainfall events between 1960 and 2008. # high FDI periods (3day) 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Year
  • 8. 8 Insurance in a changing risk landscape Figure 4: Number of intense rainfall days in the area as calculated using historical and simulated future climate data Finally, sea storm models indicate that the occurrence of extreme wave run-up events, as recently recorded in 2007, is expected to be six times greater due to a predicted sea level rise of 1m by 2100 (Theron et al. 2011). Changes to ecological buffering capacity is as important as climate change The second major finding of our study was that local human-induced changes to land cover and the buffering capacity of ecosystems was of equal or greater importance in driving increasing risks, when compared to climate change. Using historical data, we found that the occurrence of invasive alien trees (mostly Pinus sp, Acacia sp, and Eucalyptus sp) was the most important driver of significant wild fires in this region (Figure 5), explaining 37% of the change in fire occurence (Forsyth et al. 2011). While the naturally occurring fynbos vegetation of this area is also fire-prone, the occurrence of invasive alien trees increased the number of high fire risk areas by between 31% and 37%. WINTER 15 10 5 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Year ALL SEASONS Extreme rain events/year 40 30 20 10 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Year Extreme rain events/year
  • 9. Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 9 Figure 5: The functional response of fire occurrence to the occurrence of invasive alien plants, using non-linear quantile regression functions Figure 6: Expected return period of mean daily run-off under four land cover scenarios Furthermore, we found that land cover changes recorded in this area over the past two decades had an equal effect on extreme surface water flows, as compared to predicted future increases in extreme rainfall events (Le Maitre 2011). We found that the occurrence of large fires in commercial forestry (Pi-nus sp.) plantations (recorded in 1996) as well as clear-felling of stands without active rehabilitation, could reduce the return period of an extreme flow event of 150mm per day (the flow recorded during the 1981 floods) by 40% (Figure 6). Finally, using a spatial coastal hazard model developed by the CSIR, it was found that the destruction of coastal foredunes and the hardening of surfaces in this area (leading to increased erosion of these dunes) was one of the most significant predictors of coastal risk (Theron et al. 2011). The implications of these findings are significant for two reasons. First, it points out that human-induced impacts on the ecological buffering capacity of the system have an equal or greater impact on risk, as compared to future climate change predictions. Second, it points out that the proactive management and restoration of these ecological systems has the potential to offset most of the future increases in risk related to climatic changes. Fire Occurence % Alien Invasive Plants 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Daily run-off (mm) Baseline Clearfell pines Light fire in pines Severe fire in pines Return period (years) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 1981 flood run-off levels
  • 10. 10 Insurance in a changing risk landscape Risk is an emergent property of complex systems Our third major finding was that while our models could predict broad changes in risks based on pre-dicted climatic changes or human impacts on ecological buffering capacity, the actual risk to any indi-vidual asset was an emergent property of non-linear interactions between the different drivers of risk. For instance, we have already shown that land cover changes, as observed over the past two decades, could almost halve the return period of extreme surface flows of water from a 1 in 75 year event to a 1 in 45 year event (Le Maitre et al. 2011). Under these circumstances, modelling fine-scale 1 in 50 year flood lines based purely on climatic data becomes less valuable in assessing risk. Furthermore, we have shown that elevated winter temperatures are driving a higher incidence of winter fires (Figure 7), and will continue to do so into the future. We have also shown that the incidence of intense rainfall events is likely to increase particularly in winter (Figure 4). The combination of an intense rainfall event on a recently burnt landscape will greatly enhance run-off and surface flows (DeBano 2000) and, therefore, the risk of flooding. Accordingly, even when only considering climatic changes, one needs to consider the functional relationship between different drivers and how they interact with each other spatially and temporally, to understand the risk to an individual asset. This finding is significant in that it cautions against the strong pressure from the insurance industry towards ever-finer scale risk assessments to better differentiate and price risks. Within such fast-changing complex systems there is a limit to the power of predictive models and therefore the useful-ness of ever-finer scale risk assessments. Figure 7: Total area burnt in different seasons in the Outeniqua nature reserve, within the study area, for two different periods (1970-89 and 1990-2006) Hectares burnt 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 - Spring Summer Autumn Winter 1970 - 89 1990 - 2006
  • 11. Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 11 IV. RECOMMENDATIONS 1 A SYSTEMS VIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT In fast-changing complex systems with multiple risk drivers, as described above, we believe that systems models that emphasise explanatory power (i.e. how the system behaves under different scenarios) are more useful than conventional risk assessment models that focus almost exclusively on predictive power. Such systems models will not provide a single neat risk probability, but will rather provide a suite of possible risk probabilities based on different plausible scenarios for the main risk drivers. At the least, this approach will deal more explicitly with uncertainty and avoid the false sense of security that may be provided by predictive models. More importantly, these systems models have the potential of focusing the insurance industry on the real drivers of risk. This will allow the industry to complement its risk assessment with effective risk management, targeted at the sources or drivers of risk. 2 FROM RISK ASSESSMENT TO RISK MANAGEMENT Our findings warn of the limitations of a strategy that is solely reliant on ever-finer scale risk assessment with the aim of more accurate risk differentiation and pricing. In our view, the insurance industry would be better served by complementing its risk assessment with proactive risk management aimed at those systemic drivers of risk that are within its potential realm of influence. A very encouraging outcome of our work was that for each of the risks we studied (i.e. wild fires, floods, and sea storms), we were able to identify drivers of change in the local landscape that had the same if not greater effect on risk, compared to climatic drivers. Proactive management of these local drivers of risk could therefore offset most of the increased risk associated with climate change. This is the basis of ‘ecosystem-based adaptation’ to climate change (IUCN 2008). For wildfires, we identified the occurrence of invasive alien trees as a key driver in the local landscape. The control or eradication of these fire-prone invasive trees provides a practical risk management response that has the potential of nullifying future increases in fire risk associated primarily with increased temperatures in this region. For flooding, we identified local changes in land cover, specifically clear-felling of large tracts of commercial forestry plantations that were not replanted and large fires within these plantations, as a key driver of risk. Active rehabilitation of natural vegetation following clear-felling, and improved fire management practices in these areas, are therefore two practical risk management responses. While our study focused on land cover changes related to forestry (due to data availability), it should be noted that other land cover changes such as the degradation of wetlands and river riparian zones could have an equal effect on the risk of flooding. The active rehabilitation of these ecosystems also provides practical risk management responses. Finally, we found that the degradation of foredunes, the artificial hardening of the coastal area, and the reduction in sand availability, were key drivers of sea storm risk in the local landscape. Active rehabilitation of dune vegetation, stabilisation and rebuilding of foredunes and sand replenishment, as well as reduction of artificial hardening activities, provide practical options for risk management in this coastal zone.
  • 12. 12 Insurance in a changing risk landscape V. LOOKING AHEAD In order to understand how the insurance industry can effectively move to-wards more proactive risk management, we need to first acknowledge the mutually dependent relationship between governments, society and the in-surance industry. The absence of a viable insurance industry, or even a re-duction in the insured segment of society, will shift greater risk exposure onto governments and societal structures (such as community-based and non-profit organisations). It is therefore in the interest of governments and society that the private insurance industry remains viable and covers as broad a segment of society as possible. Similarly, the insurance industry is depend-ent of governments and society for the development and implementation of prudential legislation, policies and management systems that are critical to the insurance industry’s identification, assessment and management of its risk exposure. Increased risks resulting from climate change and ecological degradation therefore pose a shared risk to the insurance industry, govern-ments and society. This provides a strong incentive for collaboration. Having acknowledged the existence of a shared risk, the critical question becomes how one moves towards a shared response or, as coined by Porter & Kramer (2011), towards creating ‘shared value’. Porter & Kramer (2011) urge corporations to move beyond their schizophrenia of ‘maximising profits for shareholders’ on the one hand, and ‘corporate social responsibility’ on the other; to a more uni-fying concept of creating ‘shared value’ with society. For clarity, the concept of shared value is not about corporations ‘redistributing value’ but rather about finding ways of expanding the total pool of economic and social value. Shared value creation therefore focuses on ‘identifying and expanding the connections between societal and economic progress’ (Porter & Kramer 2011). Porter & Kramer (2011) suggest that corporations can create value by identifying gaps or failures in the frameworks that connect societal and economic progress, and building these connections. In the context of our case study, we believe that the insurance industry needs to identify and expand connections to key societal nodes within the local landscape that have the greatest potential to create shared value. In selecting these nodes for shared value creation, the insurance industry will need to consider two primary factors: 1 The strength of the current connection between the insurance industry and key nodes; and 2 The power of these nodes to create value or leverage change on the key local drivers of risk. For instance, the insurance industry has a strong connection with its clients (i.e. policyholders) who currently lack the power to leverage change over the local drivers of risk. This is largely due to lack of information and cohesive action. So while this node has high potential power, it is currently unrealised because of these gaps. The insurance industry can therefore create shared value by providing scien-tific information on the real systemic drivers of risk in the local landscape, and creating mechanisms that allow and encourage clients to influence the local drivers of risk through a focused and cohesive approach. Similarly, local municipal governments have a high degree of power over many of the local drivers of risk, but the connection between the insurance industry and local municipalities is currently very weak. This is mainly due to the absence of a shared agenda and therefore a shared systemic under-standing of how the local drivers of risk, leading to joint response projects, would facilitate the devel-opment of a shared agenda and strengthen this connection. FROM SHARED RISK TO SHARED VALUE
  • 13. Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 13 As a final example, there are a number of ecological agencies that are engaged in ecological man-agement and rehabilitation projects in the Eden area. These agencies have a high potential power to address local drivers of risk (e.g. control of invasive alien trees, rehabilitation of wetlands and foredunes) but are currently each working according to disparate and narrow mandates, and have no connection with societal risk and the insurance industry. Shared value creation opportunities lie in building a stronger connection with and between these agencies, thereby increasing their alignment and power to address specific local drivers of risk in this landscape. VI. CONCLUSION The insurance industry is the single largest global industry, with premiums amounting to some 8% of the global Gross Domestic Product, and some 11% of global assets under its management (Petherick 2011). It also has a very long reach, connecting social, economic and ecological systems. As such, the global insurance industry has immense power to address the significant shared risks associated with climate change and ecosystem degradation, and through this be a catalyst for creating shared value. In this study, we have shown how this may be practically achieved at a local landscape level. We be-lieve this work provides generic lessons as to how this may be achieved at a larger scale, as well as in other industries. At an international level, one clear yet largely untapped opportunity of creating shared value is linking the risk management and risk transfer expertise and activities of the global insurance industry with the efforts of United Nations agencies, civil society organisations and academia in building the resilience of communities to climate change and ecosystem-related risks. The collaboration of various organisations for this study gives a good indication of how this opportunity can be tapped and expanded.
  • 14. 14 Insurance in a changing risk landscape VII. REFERENCES Beck, Ulrich (1992) Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage Beck (2006) World Economic Forum’s Global Risks report – 6th edition (2011) DeBano L.F. (2000) The role of fire and soil heating on water repellency in wild land environ-ments: a review. Journal of Hydrology, 231-232, 195-206 Le Maitre, D. (2011) MacArthur (1966) Matten (2004) Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Mills (2005) Science Mills (2009) Nel. J. et al. (2011) Understanding the implication of global change for the Insurance industry: The Eden case study. CSIR Report: CSIR/NRE/ECOS/2011/0063/B Porter & Kramer (2011) Petherick (2011) RADAR (2010)
  • 15. Local lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa 15 VIII. ABOUT THE PARTNERS Santam is the leading short-term insurer in South Africa with over 90 years of experience and a mar-ket share exceeding 22%. Santam focuses on corporate, commercial and personal markets through-out South African and has business interests in other emerging markets such as India, Malawi and Botswana. Santam joined UNEP FI in 2009 and is an active member of its Insurance Commission leading the development of the UNEP FI Principles for Sustainable Insurance, which will be launched at the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development. Santam is also the first African insurer to join ClimateWise and is currently a member of its Managing Committee. www.santam.co.za The WWF was established internationally in 1961 and has become one of the world’s largest and most respected independent conservation organisations, with a global network active in over 100 countries and more than 1300 conservation projects underway around the world. WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation of the earth’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world’s biological diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption. www.wwf.org.za The UCT Centre of Criminology is a research unit of the Department of Public Law, Faculty of Law at the University of Cape Town. The Centre aims to initiate, coordinate and develop research and outreach services within the broad field of Criminology, and to promote interest in all aspects of the discipline. The Centre currently focuses its research efforts in two major domains: physical security where its primary focus is on developments in policing; and environmental security where it is exploring the governance of security in relation to global environmental change, including climate change. www.criminology.uct.ac.za The CSIR is one of the leading scientific and technology research, development and implementation organisations in Africa. Constituted by an Act of Parliament in 1945 as a science council, the CSIR un-dertakes directed and multidisciplinary research, technological innovation as well as industrial and scientific development to improve the quality of life of the country’s people. The CSIR is committed to supporting innovation in South Africa to improve national competitiveness in the global economy. Science and technology services and solutions are provided in support of various stakeholders, and opportunities are identified where new technologies can be further developed and exploited in the private and public sectors for commercial and social benefit. The CSIR’s shareholder is the South African Parliament, held in proxy by the Minister of Science and Technology. www.csir.co.za UNEP FI is a partnership between UNEP — the United Nations system’s designated entity for ad-dressing environmental issues at the global and regional levels — and the global financial sector. It is the oldest partnership between the UN and the financial sector. Through UNEP FI, UNEP works with 200 insurance companies, banks and investment firms worldwide to understand the impacts of en-vironmental, social and governance issues on financial performance and sustainable development. With a global work programme spanning research, training, events and regional activities, UNEP FI identifies, promotes and realises the adoption of best environmental and sustainability practice at all levels of financial institution operations. www.unepfi.org
  • 16. 16 Insurance in a changing risk landscape UNEP job n0 DTI/1478/GE