This document discusses the challenges facing Europe and the potential for a socio-ecological transition. It outlines several problems Europe faces like youth unemployment, an aging population, and competitiveness issues. It also discusses global challenges like resource scarcity, climate change, and economic shifts. The document argues research, innovation, and intangible assets can help drive a transition to a greener economy. It suggests Europeans embrace new values like sustainability, access over ownership, and balance between science and society. Overall the document calls for Europe to move from a consumption focused society to a circular economy with more emphasis on preserving resources.

1. Europe:
Vers une transition socio-écologique ?
Académie royale
des Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux-Arts
Bruxelles, 19 novembre 2013
Domenico ROSSETTI
Commission européenne, DG RTD*
Domenico.Rossetti-di-Valdalbero@ec.europa.eu
* S’exprimant à titre personnel

2. L'avenir ne se prévoit pas,
il se prépare
Maurice Blondel
2

3. Table of contents
A rapidly changing, troubling & unsustainable world
World grand challenges
Europe's problems
Creativity, research and innovation(s)
Intangible assets and green economy
New values and strengths of Europeans
3

4. A rapidly changing,
troubling and
unsustainable world
4

5. Economics and Geopolitics
North-South? East-West? Developed-developing,
emerging-emerged countries?
Emerging economies as rich countries with many poor
people, or poor countries with many rich people?
Multipolar world, G2 or even "The end of the West"?
Neo-Keynesian and neo-liberal or State capitalism?
Markets, regulation, deregulation?
Mega-regional agreements as a basis for world
governance or as a tool fragmenting the world economy?
Source: D. Rossetti
5

6. Population (Million)
Source: UN, World Population Prospects
1950 2011 2050 Factor
India 372 1 241 1 692 ~X 4 / 5
Brazil 54 197 223 ~X 4
USA 158 313 403 ~X 2 / 3
China 551 1 347 1 296 ~X 2 /3
EU 28 381 510 520 ~X 1 / 1.5
6

7. The EU GDP in % of global output
37% in 1970
28% in 2010
20% in 2030
17% in 2050
Source: UNCTAD, EC – Global Europe 2050
7

8. The fast changes in Energy
The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a
70% increase in worldwide demand
The surge of unconventional oil and gas (cf. shale gas),
especially in North America that emerge as a net
exporter by 2035
By 2035, ~ 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia
1400 coal power plants are running in China
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
8

9. CO2 emissions – Old and new actors
2000 2050
USA & Canada 23% 12%
Enlarged EU 14% 8%
Russia & CIS 8% 5%
Japan 4% 2%
S-E Asia - China 20% 27%
South Asia - India 7% 13%
Africa 7% 15%
Latin America 7% 9%
Others 10% 9%
49%
51%
27%
73%
Source: EC, DG ENV/CLIMA
9

10. Unsustainable trends
Obesity is a leading cause of premature death
World transport will be multiplied by three between 2000
and 2050 (passenger/km and ton/km)
Car ownership in the EU increased by ~40% between 1990
and 2010 – A car is parked 92% of its life cycle
The average speed of an international freight train in the
EU is 18km/h
40,000 people die each year in road traffic in the EU
More than 40% of the world electricity is generated from
coal with its CC impacts (1400 coal power plants in China)
Source: D. Rossetti selection from European Commission Communications
10

11. Les grandes batailles de l'énergie
Jean-Marie Chevalier
Source: IEA, 2011
11
Russian
natural
gas
prices

12. World grand challenges
12

13. Global resource extraction
Source: OECD; Behrens; WMM, Global Insight, Ellen Mac Arthur Foundation – Circular economy team
Today:
almost 70
billion
tonnes
extracted
13

14. Availability of natural resources
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, The World in 2025 and Global Europe 2050
Water (4 billion people missing water by 2050)
Food (70% increase by 2050)
Land (war on lands)
Materials (lithium, gallium, scandium,…)
Energy (availability, prices, conflicts,…)
14

15. Wealth and poverty
27,000 people world-wide with more than $ 500 M
5 billion people with less than 10$ a day
Source: WSJ report on Crédit Suisse statistics
UN 2011 Report and UN-Habitat
~80 M€
~ 60% of urban population in Africa
and ~ 40% Southern Asia
15

16. Close but… different neighbourhood
Source: São Paulo, picture from D. Bounds blog
16

17. Potential "future global shocks"
Social unrest
Pandemics
Systemic financial risk
Cybersecurity risk
Source: OECD, Future Global Shocks, 2011
17

18. High prices cause food riots
Source: New England Complex Systems institute, USA
18
N° of food
riot deaths
in
parenthesis

19. Climate Change Adaptation
Source: Hertzberger
19

20. Global flows
Global trade multiplied by more than 10 between 1960
and 2010
Maritime container trade expanded at an average 8.2%
between 1990 and 2010
Air traffics have doubled approximately every 15 years,
and are expected to keep growing an average 4.7%
yearly up to 2030
Tourism went from 700 million tourist arrivals worldwide
in 2004 to 1 billion in 2011 and is expected to grow 75%
up to 2030
Source: EC, RTD, FLAGSHIP (WB, UNCTAD, Airbus, UNWTO)
20

21. Concentration in Megacities
Source: UN-Habitat
Tokyo 34 M inh.
Seoul 25 M inh.
New Delhi 23 M inh.
Sao Paolo 21 M inh.
21

22. Environmental crisis is more than
Climate Change
Source: EC, WWWforEurope (C.L. Spash)
Biodiversity
Soil erosion and Deforestation
Water acidification and salinisation
Insecticides and pesticides
Particulates in the air
Toxic chemical waste, Heavy metals,…
22

23. Europe's problems
23

24. Youth unemployment in the EU (in %)
Source: Eurostat,
Statista, 2013
24

25. Ageing EU population (000 people)
Source: EC, DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (Bogaert)
The number of people
over 65 will double in
50 years (up to 150 M in
2060)
The "oldest old" (85
and over) will almost
triple
The share of health
expenditures in the EU
is expected to increase
from 8% of GDP today
to 13% in 2060
25

26. Poverty in the EU (~ 20% at risk)
Source: EU-SILC
26

27. Public but also firm and private debts
Source: La Libre Belgique, 7/3/13
27

28. The EU labour market dificulties
In 2011, Europeans worked on average 1,746 hours
per year (2,000 hours in 1980) and the average
retirement age is 61.2 years
The average duration of unemployment is 11 years
in the EU (against 6 years in the US)
Between 1998-2011, productivity per capita grew by:
0.5% in the euro zone
2.5% in USA
Source:OECD and EC, RTD, FLAGSHIP (Ricci and Sessa)
28

29. Education & qualification challenges
Labour force (15+) for EU-27
Source: CEDEFOP, 2010 29

30. Competitiveness – Energy price
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
Average household electricity prices by 2035
($ cents/kWh)
China 7
USA 12
EU 20
Divergence in natural gas prices by 2035
Europe: prices 5 times US levels
Asia: prices 8 times US levels
30

31. Source: EC, JRC-IPTS, Transtools,
RURAL
63%
RURAL
53%
European road & congested links (2030)
Morning peak hours: 7-9
31

32. Creativity, Research
and Innovation(ss)
32

33. Right policy messages but wrong
anticipation of technological progress
Malthus "Essay on the principle of population"
Meadows Report "The Limits to Growth"
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
33
Source: D. Rossetti

34. 1970: 300 m
2010: 3000 m
Deep sea drilling
Source: IFP

35. EU R&D since its origin
European Coal and Steel Community (1951) covered
the coal research
European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM) in
1957 covered the nuclear research and created the
European Joint Research Centre
Initial non sectorial research were launched in 1974
(Council resolutions)
RTD « Framework Programmes » (since 1984 to 2013)
and HORIZON 2020 (2014-2020)
Source: D. Rossetti
35

36. Turning the eyes
Most of the efforts these last 50 years in R&D were directly
linked to industrial policies. In Europe:
In the eighties, the eyes were turned towards Japan
and “technology push”
In 2000 (Lisbon), the eyes were turned towards
USA: Competitiveness, innovation and flexibility
Today: Europe 2020 strategy – Smart, sustainable
and inclusive growth
Source: D. Rossetti
36

37. Role of research and innovation
(“3% GDP target”)
Source: P. Zagamé
Evolution of GDP (Billion € 2000)
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Forecast before Crise New forecast Counter-cyclical scenario
(1)
(2)
(3)
37

38. Product innovation
“A product innovation is the introduction of a
good or service that is new or significantly
improved with respect to its characteristics
or intended uses”
Ex: iPad
Source: OECD, Oslo manual
Source: Apple
38

39. Process innovation
Source: OECD, Oslo manual
• “ A process innovation is the implementation of
a new or significantly improved production or
delivery method. This includes changes in
techniques, equipment and/or software”
Ex: Bar code
39

40. Marketing innovation
Source: OECD, Oslo manual
• “A marketing innovation is the implementation
of a new marketing method involving
significant changes in product design or
packaging, product placement, product
promotion or pricing”
Ex: Packaging
Source: Ferrero
40

41. Organisational innovation
Source: OECD, Oslo manual
• “An organisational innovation is the
implementation of a new organisational
method in the firm’s business practices,
workplace organisation or external relations”
Ex: Assembly line
Source: Volkswagen
41

42. Social innovation
Source: European Commission
• Social innovation can be defined as a new
product, service or model that simultaneously
meets social and environmental needs (more
effectively than alternatives) and / or creates
new social collaborations
Ex: Transport, ethical
banking, social
networks,…
Source: Villo 42

43. C'est le dynamisme – le désir et la
capacité d'innover – qui est la source
de l'innovation
Edmund Phelps
Nobel Price 2006
43

44. Innovation and (exit of) the crisis
Source: EC, State of the Innovation Union, 2011
44

45. Intangible assets
and green economy
45

46. Using the time – Towards "intangible"
Food and information (2000-2100)
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T
(Chateau and Rossetti)
Hours/day/pers
Information index
46

47. Breakdown of intangible assets
Source: EC, DG RTD, COINVEST and WIOD
(Corrado, Hulten, Sichel)
47

48. Tangible & Intangible % of GDP (2008)
Source: EC, DG RTD, COINVEST and WIOD
(Corrado, Hulten, Sichel)
48

49. Economics tries to incorporate
environmental issues
External costs that should be internalized
GNP as indicator is corrected for environmental damages
or substituted indicator(s) for wellbeing
Taxes or ETS should reduce emissions
But
Total world energy consumption is still increasing-nearly
parallel to production (energy elasticity near 1)
Better for industrialized countries (elasticity: 0.5-1) as
higher energy efficiency, higher share of services in GDP
and some relocation of production less DC
Source: EC, WWWforEurope (K. Aiginger)
49

50. Low-carbon innovation
Source: EC, DG RTD, SIMPATIC (A. Dechezleprêtre)
50

51. From theory to practice
Source: V. Druzhinin
51

52. Acting on lifestyles
Source: Google images
52

53. Right pricing
Source: Google images
53

54. Valuing the time
2 hours
Source: Google image
54

55. Source: Newman and
Kenworthy
Building sustainable cities
Eloge de la densité
55

56. Incentivizing cultural
and creative industries
• The cultural and creative sectors need multi-
disciplinary environments where they can meet
with businesses from other industries. Any public
intervention aiming to further develop them calls
for cross-sectoral fertilisation
• European Commission, COM(2012)537, Promoting cultural
and creative sectors for growth and jobs in the EU
56

57. New values and
strengths of Europeans
57

58. From Proprietas to Usus
New economy and younger generation:
Less ownership (purchasing)
More access (renting & sharing)
58

59. A 21st century pact between
Science & Society
Man – Nature
Respect – Exploitation
Humanities – Engineering
Design of a car - Efficiency of the combustion engine
Social habits - Technological developments
Airplane service on board - Online reservation
Precaution - Innovation
DNA, GMO, nuclear Source: D. Rossetti
59

60. The potential of EU cultural heritage
Source: Google images

61. Tradition is not leaving ashes,
its is passing the flame
Thomas More
61

62. Reason and openness on migrations
Per year, 1 million of third countries
people are entering the EU
20% of the EU population will be
Muslim by 2050
Source: European Commission, Global Europe 2050 62

63. Sobriety vs. Excess
Lagom
Frugalité
Negawatt
Genuine Progress
Indicator (GPI)
Against planned or
wished obsolescence
European way of life 63

64. SSS – Smart, Small and Sustainable
High level of R&I, good commercial practices,
attractive design – beyond technological innovation
Big is powerful but small is beautiful and flexible
(quality, customer-oriented, …)
Modern infrastructures and new approaches to
sustainable living and mobility options (eco-towns,
public transport, shared consumption)
Democratic systems, rule of law, gender balance
64
Source: D. Rossetti

65. Source: Letter Duo Sunt
RURAL
63%
RBAN
37%
RURAL
53%
State and Religion
Pope St Gelasius (492-496) - from Berber origin - wrote
on Church-State relations: Distinction between two
powers:
The holy authority of bishops (auctoritas sacrata
pontificum)
The royal power (regalis potestas)
"En politique les Prêtres doivent se plier aux lois de
l’Empereur, et en matière de religion l’Empereur
doit écouter le Prêtre"
65

66. Conclusions
Change of paradigm:
From a consumption-waste society to a circular
economy (cf. sobriety and preservation of resources)
From consumers to "innosumers"
Beyond tangibles & Beyond GDP (society & economy)
The socio-ecological transition is a great opportunity
(cf. globalisation and decreasing inequality across the
world population, healthy ageing, territorial dynamics,
new energy)
Source: D. Rossetti
66

67. Conclusions
Ever-expanding human activity and a finite world (Limits
to growth - 1972; SD-1986; Rio-1992; Rio+20)
New economic and social development: increasing
growth while reducing both unemployment and GHG
emissions; decoupling economic growth and
environmental impact; reducing externalities
Health, safety and security risk (cf. food, energy) as well
as CC, world finance and international trade require new
forms of global governance and representation
Source: D. Rossetti
67

68. Representation – G8
G8, Northern Ireland, 17 June 2013
68

69. Veut-on les Nations Unies de l'Europe
ou les Etats-Unis d'Europe
Guy Verhofstadt
69

70. 70