The document discusses various agile metrics for measuring software development projects, with a focus on velocity. It notes that velocity is a trailing indicator that tells us about a project's health. While planning based on velocity is common, the document cautions that velocity should not be the sole goal and advocates considering other metrics for a more balanced view of the project. Such metrics include cumulative flow, standard deviation to measure variability, and scatter diagrams to show correlations between factors like velocity and complexity.

1. Agile Metrics:
Velocity
is Not the
Goal.
Michael “Doc” Norton ◊ @DocOnDev ◊ doc@leandog.com

2. What’s “Agile” Velocity?
Work units delivered over time

3. Trailing Indicator
Tells us about the health of the project

4. Planning By
Velocity

5. 30
30
29
28 28 28 28
27 27
24 25
24
18
12
6
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Velocity Graph

6. 30
30
29
28 28 28 28
27 27
24 25
24
18
12
6
30 25 28 27 28 29 28 24 28 30
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Weather Actual
Yesterday s Weather

7. Ideal Actual Estimate
500
375
250
125
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Burn Down

8. 30
30
29
28 28 28 28
27 27
24 25
24
18
12
6
30 30 25 25 28 27 27 27 28 28 29 28 28 28 24 26 28 27 30 27
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Weather Rolling Actual
Rolling Average

9. Ideal Actual Estimate
500
375
250
125
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Burn Down

10. Do you feel
Confident?

11. Standard
Deviation

12. Standard Deviation Basics

13. ?

14. Standard Deviation Basics

15. Calculate the mean (average) of the population
Compute the difference of each data point from
the mean, and square the result of each
Compute the average of these values, and take
the square root
Standard Deviation Basics

16. 30
30
29
28 28 28 28
27 27
24 25
24
18
(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4
12
6
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Calculate the mean

17. 30
30
29
28 28 28 28
27 27
24 25
24
(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4
18
(25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36
(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.56
12
(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36
(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76
(29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16
6
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Take differences and square

18. 30
30
29
28 28 28 28
27 27
24 25
24
(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4
18
(25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36
(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.56
12 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36
(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76
(29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16
6
(2.84)**1/2 = 1.685
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Square root of difference avg.

19. 30
30
29
28 28 28 28
27 27
24 25
24
1.685
18
12
6
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Standard Deviation

20. Ideal Actual Estimate High Low
500
375
250
125
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Burn Down :: 1SD

21. Ideal Actual Estimate High Low
500
375
250
125
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Burn Down :: 2SD

22. Set: 10,11,9,10 Set: 10,14,9,7
Mean: 10 Mean: 10
Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10
Deviation: 0.7 Deviation: 2.5
Velocity: 9.3-10.7 Velocity: 7.5-12.5
Standard Deviation
Same Mean, Same Rolling, Different Deviation

23. 6, 11, 12, 10, 8, 7
Calculate the mean (average) of the population
Compute the difference of each data point from
the mean, and square the result of each
Compute the average of these values, and take
the square root
Now you do it
Calculate Standard Deviation & Predict Velocity

24. “You can’t manage
what you can’t
measure”

25. Says Who?

26. You can’t
manage what
you can’t
measure.
Dr. W. Edwards Deming
Father of the Quality Evolution

27. T
Don’t be
ridiculous!
N O
in ly
rt a
C e
Dr. W. Edwards Deming
Father of the Quality Evolution

28. Running a company
on visible figures
alone
[is deadly]
Dr. W. Edwards Deming
Father of the Quality Evolution

29. Seven Deadly Diseases
of
Western Management
Lack of constancy of purpose
Emphasis on short term profits
Evaluation of performance, merit rating, or annual review
Mobility of top management
Running a company on visible figures alone
Excessive medical costs
Excessive legal damage awards

30. The Hawthorn Effect
That which is measured, will improve

31. What matters is
not setting
quantitative goals but
fixing the method by
which those goals are
attained
Repair the root cause
Rather than the symptoms

32. Unstable Velocity
What does it mean?

33. Poor Story Composition
You want consistent (small) stories

34. Too Much WIP
Get the highest value done first

35. Dependency on Other Teams
Get everyone you need on the team

36. Stable Velocity
It won’t ever be perfect

37. Increase Velocity
Do we always want to go faster?

38. Goodhart’s Law
Making a metric a target destroys the metric

39. What matters is
not setting
quantitative goals but
fixing the method by
which those goals are
attained
Repair the root cause
Rather than the symptoms

40. Scatter
Diagram

41. 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 2 4 6 8
Scatter Diagrams
Shows Correlation Between Two Variables

42. 50
37.5
25
12.5
0
0 25 50 75 100
Velocity and Complexity
Negative Correlation

43. 50
37.5
25
12.5
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Velocity and Value
No Correlation

44. 50
37.5
25
12.5
0
0 22.5 45 67.5 90
Velocity and Test Coverage
Positive Correlation

45. Cumulative
Flow

46. Sample Backlog

47. Cumulative Flow
Velocity doesn’t always tell us enough

49. 20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Velocity Graph
What story does this tell?

50. 20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Velocity Graph
What story does this tell?

51. 100
75
50
25
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start
Cumulative Flow
What story does this tell?

52. What
Else?

53. 16
12
8
4
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity
Balanced Metrics
Watch more than one

54. 16 50
12 37.5
8 25
4 12.5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality
Balanced Metrics
Watch more than one

55. 16 50
12 37.5
8 25
4 12.5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours
Balanced Metrics
Watch more than one

56. 16 50
12 37.5
8 25
4 12.5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team Joy
Balanced Metrics
Watch more than one

57. Thank You
Michael “Doc” Norton ◊ @DocOnDev ◊ doc@leandog.com