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Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern Ontario Watersheds
1. Characterizing change of high frequency
return periods in urbanizing southern
Ontario watersheds
Peter John Thompson
Earthfx Inc.
Dr. William K. Annable
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Waterloo
CWRA 2014 Canada Water Resources Congress
June 2, 2014
2. Effects of
Urbanization
• Increase in impervious area
• Shorter events
• Larger peak discharge
• Infiltration
• Changes to frequency
• Channelization
• Change in vegetative cover
• Habitat degradation
• Erosion
• Poor water quality
• Failure of engineered structures
2
5. 5
Middle Don River, North York c. 1954-55
Aerial Photographic Analysis
Highway 401
under
construction
RCAF Station
Downsview
6. Aerial Photographic Analysis
6
Don River at York Mills c. 1955
• Scanned and
georeferenced aerial
photographs in 8-year
intervals from 1954 to
2010
• Identified urbanized
areas by hand
7. Aerial Photographic Analysis
7
Don River at York Mills c. 2005
• Two temporal datasets
produced:
• “Effective Impervious
Area” (EIA)
• Road Density
• Can we relate this
observed change to
hydrologic variables?
8. Little Don River
at Don Mills
(02HC029)
1954
Don River at York
Mills
(02HC005)
0 2 4 6 8 101
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1954
Forested Cover - 1955
Urbanized Area - 1954
9. 1960
Don River at York
Mills
(02HC005)
Little Don River
at Don Mills
(02HC029)
0 2 4 6 8 101
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1960
Urbanized Area - 1960
10. 1970
Don River at York
Mills
(02HC005)
Little Don River
at Don Mills
(02HC029)
0 2 4 6 8 101
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1970
Urbanized Area - 1970
11. 1978
Don River at York
Mills
(02HC005)
Little Don River
at Don Mills
(02HC029)
0 2 4 6 8 101
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1978
Urbanized Area - 1978
12. 1995
Don River at York
Mills
(02HC005)
Little Don River
at Don Mills
(02HC029)
13. 2005
Don River at York
Mills
(02HC005)
Little Don River
at Don Mills
(02HC029)
14. Land Use Change
Transition from Agricultural to Urban Land Use
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
RoadDensity(km/km2)
PercentArea
Year
Urbanized Area
Agricultural Area
Catchment Road Density
02HC005 – Don River at York Mills
Effective Catchment Area – 95.5 km2
15. Etobicoke Creek below QEW (02HC030)
1970
• Effective Catchment Area - 204 km2
• Urbanized Area - 45.4 km2 (21%)
• Total Road Length - 718 km
0 4 8 122
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1970
Urbanized Area - 1970
16. Etobicoke Creek below QEW (02HC030)
1978
• Effective Catchment Area - 204 km2
• Urbanized Area - 64.2 km2 (30%)
• Total Road Length - 908 km
0 4 8 122
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1978
Urbanized Area - 1978
17. Etobicoke Creek below QEW (02HC030)
1995
• Effective Catchment Area - 204 km2
• Urbanized Area - 100 km2 (47%)
• Total Road Length - 1380 km
0 4 8 122
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1995
Urbanized Area - 1995
18. Etobicoke Creek below QEW (02HC030)
2005
• Effective Catchment Area - 204 km2
• Urbanized Area - 54.9 km2 (55%)
• Total Road Length - 1540 km
0 4 8 122
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 2005
Urbanized Area - 2005
20. Redhill Creek at Hamilton (02HA014)
20
• Effective Catchment Area
57.0 km2
• Urbanized Area
~60%
21. AAfafdas
Hydrograph Change with Urbanization
Time (T) Time (T)
Rainfall(L)
Discharge(L3/T)
After
Urbanization
Original
Lag time after
urbanization
Hydrograph
of streamflow
Lag time
Center of mass
of runoff
and of rainfall
Discharge(L3/T)
Rainfall
•Changes to event hydrograph with urbanization...?
after Leopold (1968)
22. Daily vs. Instantaneous Data
22
02HA014 – Redhill Creek at Hamilton
• The daily stream
flow represents an
average, the
instantaneous data
is made up of 15
minute interval
measurements
• Individual events
and event peaks
can be clearly
identified on the 15
minute hydrograph
23. Instantaneous Stream Flow Data
Manual Chart Digitizing (c. ~1975)
• Need high resolution, high frequency data
• Only data available post-1996
• Joint project with Water Survey of Canada
• Archived electronic records dating from 1969 were
processed to create a
15 minute resolution
hydrograph
• Much of this data was
originally digitized by
hand
24. Daily vs. Instantaneous Data
• Periods of high flow are not captured on the
mean daily hydrograph 24
02HC029 – Little Don River at Don Mills
25. Event Separation Algorithm
25
• Allows individual
events to be parsed
and analyzed from
the instantaneous
hydrometric record
• Events are
considered over
after the Q passes
below some ratio of
the peak
• Thresholds range
from 15% - 50% of
peak discharge02HA014 - Redhill Creek at Hamilton
26. 26
Event Separation Algorithm
• Most events during
the year can be
identified
• There is no
instantaneous record
for backwater periods
due to ice or
vegetation
• Data lends itself to
urban catchments or
analysis of warm
weather events
(May – November)
02HA014 - Redhill Creek at Hamilton
BackwaterDuetoIce
29. Station Name Trend
Duffins Creek above Pickering
East Humber River near Pine Grove
East Oakville Creek near Omagh
Laurel Creek at Waterloo ↑
Redhill Creek at Hamilton
Black Creek near Weston ↑
Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑
Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑
Mimico Creek at Islington ↑
Don River at York Mills ↑
Little Don River at Don Mills ↑
Don River at Todmorden ↑
Rouge River near Markham ↑
Highland Creek near West Hill ↑
Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑
Peak Event Discharge
UrbanizedRural
30. Frequency Analysis
• Can we relate changes in the urban footprint
to changes in return frequency?
• Need to assess hydrologic change in step with
catchment land use change
30
37. 37
Don River at Todmorden
(02HC024)
Return Frequency
(7-Year Moving Weibull Plot)
38. 38
Rouge River near Markham
(02HC022)
Return Frequency
(7-Year Moving Weibull Plot)
39. Conclusions
• Event based separation allows high resolution datasets to be
parsed down to hydrological descriptive variables
• The magnitude of change in storm peaks varies with return
frequency, but these changes may not be consistent
• Spatial distribution of build-out critical to understanding
hydrologic change
• These data can be used for Partial Peak, and Partial Duration,
and Annual Duration methods to fine tune the analysis of
higher frequency events in urban catchments
A Nonstationary Analysis of Southern Ontario Storm Events
Identified from High Resolution Streamflow Data;
Nicole L. O’Brien, Peter J. Thompson, Donald H. Burn,
William K. Annable
Session M2C
40. Acknowledgements
Dr. Herman Goertz Jeanette Fooks
Paula Hunter Carrie-Lynn Green
Water Survey Division, Environment Canada
Tom Arsenault
Aerial Photography Analysis Eco-Hydraulics Co-op
Robert Leonard Tyler Gale
Nikita Tirskikh Victoria Lounder
Chris McKie Ben Plumb
Christina Bright
CompuMOD Dataset Extraction
Ian McLaurin
42. WSC
Station ID
Station Name
Area
(km2)
Percent
Urban
(1969)
Percent
Urban
(≈2010)
Percent
Change
02HC019 Duffins Creek above Pickering 93.5 > 5% --
02HC009 East Humber River near Pine Grove 197 > 10% --
02HB004 East Oakville Creek near Omagh 199 > 10% --
02GA024 Laurel Creek at Waterloo 57.5 15 38 23
02HA014 Red Hill Creek at Hamilton 57.0 27 60 33
02HC027 Black Creek near Weston 66.0 55 78 22
02HC017 Etobicoke Creek at Brampton 65.1 1 18 17
02HC030 Etobicoke Creek below QEW 211 20 55 34
02HC033 Mimico Creek at Islington 75.2 43 82 39
02HC005 Don River at York Mills 96.7 30 69 39
02HC029 Little Don River at Don Mills 138 30 68 38
02HC024 Don River at Todmorden 321 43 73 30
02HC022 Rouge River near Markham 181 7 40 33
02HC013 Highland Creek near West Hill 89.0 47 86 39
02HD013 Harmony Creek at Oshawa 42.1 20 45 25
42
Study Catchments
43. Mann-Kendall Test
• Non-parametric test for monotonic trends
• Independent events assumed to be
uncorrelated
• Trends tested to a 95% significance level
( p ≤ 0.025 )
0if1
0if0
0if1
sgn
1
1 1
sgn
n
k
n
kj
kj xxS
43
44. Typical Event Hydrograph
44
Qpeak
Qthreshold
Qstart
Qend
Time
Discharge
tstart tpeak tthreshold
Trise Tthreshold Ttotal
Vrise
Q75
Q50
T75
T50
Rising
Limb
Falling
Limb
Recession
Limb
Vrecession
Vtotal
tend
• Once an event has be
identified on the
hydrograph, specific
event properties can
be analyzed
• Event volume,
duration, time to
peak, etc. can be
calculated directly
from the observed
hydrograph
• Trends in event
parameters can be
explored
45. Peak Event Discharge
Station Name Trend
Duffins Creek above Pickering
East Humber River near Pine Grove
East Oakville Creek near Omagh
Laurel Creek at Waterloo ↑
Redhill Creek at Hamilton
Black Creek near Weston ↑
Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑
Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑
Mimico Creek at Islington ↑
Don River at York Mills ↑
Little Don River at Don Mills ↑
Don River at Todmorden ↑
Rouge River near Markham ↑
Highland Creek near West Hill ↑
Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑
46. Number of Events per Year
Station Name Trend
Duffins Creek above Pickering
East Humber River near Pine Grove
East Oakville Creek near Omagh
Laurel Creek at Waterloo
Redhill Creek at Hamilton
Black Creek near Weston
Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑
Etobicoke Creek below QEW
Mimico Creek at Islington
Don River at York Mills ↑
Little Don River at Don Mills ↑
Don River at Todmorden
Rouge River near Markham ↑
Highland Creek near West Hill ↑
Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑
47. Event Volume
Station Name Trend
Duffins Creek above Pickering
East Humber River near Pine Grove
East Oakville Creek near Omagh
Laurel Creek at Waterloo ↑
Redhill Creek at Hamilton ↑
Black Creek near Weston
Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑
Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑
Mimico Creek at Islington ↑
Don River at York Mills ↓
Little Don River at Don Mills ↑
Don River at Todmorden ↑
Rouge River near Markham ↑
Highland Creek near West Hill
Harmony Creek at Oshawa
48. Total Event Duration
Station Name Trend
Duffins Creek above Pickering
East Humber River near Pine Grove
East Oakville Creek near Omagh ↓
Laurel Creek at Waterloo
Redhill Creek at Hamilton
Black Creek near Weston ↓
Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↓
Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑
Mimico Creek at Islington ↑
Don River at York Mills ↓
Little Don River at Don Mills ↑
Don River at Todmorden ↓
Rouge River near Markham ↑
Highland Creek near West Hill ↓
Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↓
49. Event Quick Flow
(Direct Runoff) Volume
Station Name Trend
Duffins Creek above Pickering
East Humber River near Pine Grove
East Oakville Creek near Omagh
Oakville Creek at Milton ↓
Credit River near Orangeville
Black Creek near Weston
Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑
Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑
Mimico Creek at Islington ↑
Don River at York Mills
Little Don River at Don Mills ↑
Don River at Todmorden
Rouge River near Markham ↑
Highland Creek near West Hill ↑
Harmony Creek at Oshawa
MK Trend: Increasing
50. Event Interflow Volume
Station Name Trend
Duffins Creek above Pickering ↑
East Humber River near Pine Grove
East Oakville Creek near Omagh
Oakville Creek at Milton
Credit River near Orangeville
Black Creek near Weston ↑
Etobicoke Creek at Brampton
Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑
Mimico Creek at Islington ↑
Don River at York Mills
Little Don River at Don Mills ↑
Don River at Todmorden ↑
Rouge River near Markham ↑
Highland Creek near West Hill ↑
Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑
MK Trend: Increasing
51. Station Name
Peak
Discharg
e
Time
to
Peak
Event
Duration
Total
Hydrograp
h Duration
Event
Volume
Total
Hydrograp
h Volume
Flashines
s
Duffins Creek above Pickering
East Humber River near Pine Grove
East Oakville Creek near Omagh ↓
Oakville Creek at Milton ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑
Credit River near Orangeville ↑
Laurel Creek at Waterloo ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
Redhill Creek at Hamilton ↑
Black Creek near Weston ↑ ↓ ↑
Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑
Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
Mimico Creek at Islington ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
Don River at York Mills ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑
Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
Don River at Todmorden ↑ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑
Rouge River near Markham ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
Highland Creek near West Hill ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑
Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑ ↓ ↓ ↑
Summary (Warm Weather Trends)
52. Mimico Creek at Islington (02HC033)
1970
• Effective Catchment Area - 215 km2
• Urbanized Area - 33.3 km2 (45%)
• Total Road Length - 450 km
0 2 4 61
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1970
Urbanized Area - 1970
53. Mimico Creek at Islington (02HC033)
1978
• Effective Catchment Area - 215 km2
• Urbanized Area - 40.2 km2 (55%)
• Total Road Length - 553 km
0 2 4 61
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1978
Urbanized Area - 1978
54. Mimico Creek at Islington (02HC033)
1995
• Effective Catchment Area - 215 km2
• Urbanized Area – 53.0 km2 (72%)
• Total Road Length - 641 km
0 2 4 61
Kilometers
Effective Catchment Area
Road Network - 1995
Urbanized Area - 1995
55. Mimico Creek at Islington (02HC033)
2005
• Effective Catchment Area - 215 km2
• Urbanized Area - 60.2 km2 (81.5%)
• Total Road Length - 683 km
0 2 4 61
Kilometers
Road Network - 2005
Effective Catchment Area
Urbanized Area - 2005
56. Highland Creek near West Hill
(02HC013)
1955
• Effective Catchment Area - 89 km2
• Urbanized Area - 8.9 km2 (10%)
• Total Road Length - 248 km
0 1 2 3 40.5
Kilometers
Topographic Catchment Boundary
Road Network - 1955
Forest Cover - 1955
Urbanized Area - 1955
57. Highland Creek near West Hill
(02HC013)
2010
• Effective Catchment Area - 89 km2
• Urbanized Area - 76.5 km2 (86%)
• Total Road Length - 876 km
0 1 2 3 40.5
Kilometers
Topographic Catchment Boundary
Road Network - 2010
Urbanized Area - 2010