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- 1. Rs10.76 lakh crore = 6 * Rs1.76 lakh crore ‘COAL-GATE’ Smile washes away 2G Woos!
- 2. Energy and Power Sector of India By Mathangi Sridhar Indresh Vikram Singh Dipankar Biswas Mazid Ali Khan
- 3. The Big Picture Total Installed Energy Capacity:210GW 3.4% of Indian GDP (2012) Energy Capacity Generation Statistic in India(as of 2011) High presence of energy mix 10% in India compared to world 1% average of 27% 11% 2% 4th largest consumer of energy globally 55% 21% 5th largest producer of Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewable Diesel Gas energy globally
- 4. India’s Energy Trajectory Post - Reform Phase 3 (post 2003) Phase 2 (1996- 2003) Electricity Act 2003 Pre - Reform Phase 1 (1991- CMNAP Guidelines Delicensing 1995) Nationalization of tariffs Open Access in Post- IPP T&D Independence Enron case Single-buyer to Era : (1947- Orissa Multi-buyer 1990) Restructuring model Electricity Act 1995 – Mega Pre-independence era 1948 amended Power Policy : prior to 1947 Creation of SEBs Dates back to Calcutta Hydropower Electricity Supply Project Corporation in 1897 Electricity Act 1910
- 5. What changed the energy game? Pre - 2003 Post - 2003 Generation Transmission Distribution Consumers
- 6. Current Status : Twin Issues Demand Supply Gap 1000 830.3 Power in Billion Units 800 559.4 620.9 •Current demand-supply gap 600 746.5 266.4 447.3 of 8% leading to peak 400 168.1 517.4 559.4 395.9 shortages at 11-12% 200 245.4 •Grid access not available to 156.8 0 more than 55% of the rural 1 2 3 4 5 6 population Five Year Plans of Indian Government Availabiliy Demand Cost Vs Tariff rates in India Unit Cost(paise/kWh) Tariff(paise/kWh) 1000 357 380 The gap between average tariff and 800 326 333 Paise/kWh 306 average cost per unit of electricity 600 460 476 484 487 400 404 has ranged from between 20 % and 200 30 % of cost per unit in the last 5 0 years. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Years
- 7. E = m * Coal² • 70 % of the electricity generated is from coal based power plants. • On the domestic production front, Coal India Ltd is the largest contributor accounting for 81 % of country's coal production. – 9.5 % of balance comes from the Singareni Collieries Company Ltd – Meghalaya – 6 mn tonnes of production • 285.86 billion tonnes - country’s total known and estimated coal resources(Sept, 2012) – Coal India Ltd (CIL) holds 65 bn tonnes, NLC and Singareni holds 49 bn tonnes • Presently the country imports about 85 million tons of coal(2012)
- 8. Captive , not attractive! • Captive mining introduced in 2003 to open up private investments. – Cement , coal & steel industries • 30 out of 200 blocks have commissioned production – Produced 36.30 million tons in FY 2010-11 against a target of 104 million tons • Huge loss to Government due to state monopoly – Loot of coal – Corporate tax loss on profits – Inefficiencies in mining & production • Supreme Court order on allocation of captive mines?
- 9. Coal India Ltd :One Man’s Army! • Coal India Ltd – largest coal producing company in the world CIL’s Projection for About 20% of the 2017 CIL’s Production in 2011-12 output is lost in 918 713 pilferage, 35% MT loss in T&D 556 436 487 MT MT MT MT Output Target Demand Output Demand • Classifies customers based on the requirement of coal – Supplies either through e-auction/agencies/FSA • Shift from differential pricing strategy based on gross calorific value based pricing – At par with international pricing
- 10. CIL : Sitting on Cash Reserves? Gross Profit (in crore) EPS (in Rs.) 10,000.00 15 12.77 8,606.91 Gross profit in Crore EPS in Rs 8,000.00 10 7.43 5.56 5.82 6,000.00 4,729.14 3.88 3,658.50 5 4,000.00 3,879.39 2,593.58 0 2,000.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Years Years • CIL sits on Rs.65,000 crore(2012) cash reserves but fails to meet coal demand in India • Lack of land acquisition policy in place – 236 CIL proposals pending with environmental ministry for clearance • A widening demand-supply gap due to huge administrative issues.
- 11. From 1 barrel of Crude Oil… 1 barrel 35% of 3% of Crude Gasoli Others LPG Oil ne • Huge demand for Natural gas has pushed imports of LNG in the recent years • The recent development of shale gas reserves in North America – opportunity for increased LNG demand in emerging economies like India, China and other emerging markets (Argentina, Brazil, Bangladesh etc.). • Demand for gas is expected to increase by a CAGR of 14% during 2011- 12, to 2016-17, from 194 MMSCMD to 373 MMSCMD.
- 12. To Million Units of Natural gas! 14000 12800 Million Metric Standard Cubic 12000 10000 metre/day 7600 8000 6000 868 4000 158 6 India stands 6th in production figures 2000 81 95 151 231 313 globally 0 2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 Years Demand (MMSCMD) Supply (MMSCMD) Contributes to 7% of Imports (cubic meteres) 7 total GDP •Currently, power sector consumes about 37% followed by fertilizers with India stands 9th in 23% consumption figures •Development of National Gas Grid 9 globally •LNG regasification terminals
- 13. But the story continues… To march towards 2020, to achieve 15% target of GOI Let’s go the green way!
- 14. ‘New –clear’ and Clean Source • Six nuclear power plants producing 4780 MW • India is endowed with 1/3 rd of world’s thorium reserves. • Power Generation by NPCIL : 26,473 million units in 2011 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 World India
- 15. Hydro is next in the row! • New Electricity Act 2003 and 2005 • 100,000 MW is planned for the coming 5 years • Continuous decline of hydro power from 50% in 1963 to 25% in 2010 Hydropower Class Pico < 5 kw Micro < 100 kw Mini < 2000 kw Small < 25000 kw Medium < 100,000 kw Large > 100,000 kw
- 16. The answer my friend is blowing in the Wind! • Current production capacity of wind turbines – range of 3000 to 4000 MW • Fiscal concession such as income tax exemption, excise duty exemption etc available from the government • Last year 6 new companies were given approval • Bold move- Government washing hands off to the States
- 17. Going the Solar Way! • 2008 - National Action Plan on Climate Change was announced, constituting 8 major national mission • Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) was launched in January 2010 • Gujarat ranks first in manufacturing solar power; 2/3rd of the 900 MW of PV in the country • 48 cities and 23 states to be built as solar cities, Nagpur and Chandigarh will be built as a model solar cities
- 18. Is India heading towards darkness? • India power consumption to double by 2020 Energy Mix of India in 2020 • Dependency on import of fuel for Coal Oil Gas power generation expected to increase Nuclear Traditional Renewable to 73% to 2020 8% 16% 30% • India, even with a low per capita consumption of electricity, is already 5% the third largest emitter of GHG gases. 16% 25% • Excluding a few private players like Reliance, TATA, industry is dominated by public sector
- 19. Power Play @ 2020 • Coal : Mine the Gap! – Output estimated to grow from 257.7m tonnes of energy (mtoe) in 2011 to 320.2 mtoe in 2020. – Increased private sector participation to reduce imports • Natural Gas : Unnatural Progress – Will grow to displace coal to increase imports – Australia – LNG provider? • Oil : Less than Slick – Privatization of ONGC • Renewables : Rapid Evolution – Minimum of $50 bn investment required in renewable energy alone by 2020
- 20. Electricity Saved is Electricity Produced! • If you turn off your monitor for a minute, a bulb can be lit in some remote part of India for about 2 minutes. • Try to switch off all your electrical appliances for at least half an hour everyday. • Do not switch on the power when TV and Audio Systems are not in use i.e. idle operation leads to an energy loss of 10 watts/device • If you reside at an above sea-level region, minimize the use of fans. Doing this and more can save about 30% of the total domestic power consumption in India!!!
- 22. THANK YOU