Population trends and demographic indicators

1. Indian Population History and Profile
Dr T R Dilip,
International Institute for Population Sciences
Course C1: Introduction to Demography and History of Population
MBD/MA/MSc/MPS
9th September 2021

2. Subcontinents' Population in the Past
• A great civilization even 1000 of years before Christian era
• McEveday 9500 years ago 200,000 (out of total world population of 3
million)
– 1 million 6000 years ago
– 3 million 5000 year ago
– 5/6 million in the continent lived in North West (28 Million world Population)
4000 years ago
– Pon doubled from 6 to 12million between 3900 and 3000 years ago
• Indus valley civilization could be most populous of the ancient world
discovered in 1920 (one fifth of human population)
• Mohanjadero (between 30,000-80,000 in 250 hectares) and Harappa
(18,000-50,000 in 150 hectares) probably were largest cities
• Collapse of indus valley civilization natural calamities and epidemics
• Settlements spreading beyond Ganges basin
• Aryan settlements
Source: Dyson, T., 2018. A population history of India: From the first modern
people to the present day. Oxford University Press.

3. Estimates of India’s Population
Year Population (million) Author
300 B.C.
A.D. 1600
A.D. 1750
A.D. 1800
100-140
100
125
135
110
140
125
207
Pran Nath
W.H. Moreland
Kingsley Davis
A. Das Gupta
J.M. Datta
John D. Durand
Kingsley Davis
P.C. Mahalanobis and
D. Bhattacharya
Source: United Nations, ESCAP

4. Population British India
Source: Yeatts, M.W., 1943. Census of India, 1941. Vol. I: India. Part I: Tables.
https://dspace.gipe.ac.in/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10973/37344/GIPE-
020588.pdf?sequence=3

5. Repeated famines
Famine Provinces/areas affected
No of deaths
(estimates)
Great Bengal Famine of 1770 Bihar, Northern and Central Bengal 10 milion
Chalisa famine of 1782–84
Delhi, Western Oudh, Eastern Punjab
region, Rajputana, and Kashmir 11 million
Doji Bara famine of 1788–94
Hyderabad, Southern Maratha country,
Deccan, Gujarat, and Marwar 11 million
Agra famine of 1837–38
Central Doab and trans-Jumna districts
of the North-Western Provinces 0.8 million
Upper Doab famine of 1860–61 Upper Doab of Agra; Delhi and Hissar 2 million
Orissa famine of 1866 Orissa and Bihar 1 million
Rajasthan famine of 1869 Ajmer, Western Agra, Eastern Punjab 1.5 million
Bihar famine of 1873–74 Bihar ?
Southern India famine of 1876–78 Madras and Bombay 6 to 10 million
Indian famine of 1896–97
Madras, Bombay Deccan, Bengal,
United Provinces, Central Provinces 5 million
Indian famine of 1899–1900
Madras, Bombay Deccan, Bengal,
United Provinces, Central Provinces 5 million
Bengal famine of 1943 Bengal 1.5 million

6. Cholera, plague and influenza between 1817 and 1920
Source: Tumbe, C., 2020. Pandemics and historical mortality in India (No. WP 2020-12-03). Indian Institute of
Management Ahmedabad https://ideas.repec.org/p/iim/iimawp/14644.html

7. Cholera, plague and influenza between 1877-1939
Source: Tumbe, C., 2020. Pandemics and historical mortality in India (No. WP 2020-12-03). Indian Institute of
Management Ahmedabad https://ideas.repec.org/p/iim/iimawp/14644.html

8. Cholera, between 1877-1939
Tumbe, C., 2020. Pandemics and historical mortality in India (No. WP 2020-12-03). Indian Institute of
Management Ahmedabad https://ideas.repec.org/p/iim/iimawp/14644.html

9. Rate of deaths higher in urban than rural areas (Now reverse)
Source: Tumbe, C., 2020. Pandemics and historical mortality in India (No. WP 2020-12-03). Indian Institute
of Management Ahmedabad https://ideas.repec.org/p/iim/iimawp/14644.html

10. Public heath measures taken
• Compulsory Vaccination Act was in 1892 to ensure higher coverage with
smallpox
• epidemic control efforts outbreak of cholera and plague in India (1896-
1907) & influenza in world war period
• devolved a number of administrative powers from Centre to Provinces
(1919)
• BCG vaccination was expanded through mass campaigns in 1951
• National Smallpox Eradication Programme (NSEP) in 1962 & eradication
1977
• The Expanded Programme of Immunization (EPI) (1978) and then
Universal Immunization Programme (UIP) (1985)
• Eradication of polio 2011
• Expansion of immunization schedule r Infants, Children and Pregnant
Women: TT Pregnant women (2+booster), BCG, Hepatitais-B, OPV, JE,
Rotavirus, Vitamin A etc..
• Sanitation, clean drinking water, indoor and outdoor air pollution????

11. Historical Population Growth in India
1901-2011 (in million)
Source: Census of India, 1901-2011
238 252 251
279
319
361
439
548
683
846
1029
1210
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Census year
INDIA

12. Observation on Past Indian population
Davis 1951, India and Pakistan growing at 1.2
percent per annum (1921-1941).
due to elimination of war and banditry and control
of famines and epidemies, mortality in India
Indian fertility is high, though not the highest in the
world
the demographic situation in Pakistan and India will
get worse before it gets better. Also, it will get
better later than it would, if the two Governments
successfully carried through a comprehensive
population policy

13. Estimates of birth rate in the Indian sub-continent to various sources, 1871-1951
Year Registration data Davis Ghosh Das Gupta Visaria
1871-81
1881-91
1891-1901
1901-11
1911-15
1916-20
1921-5
1926-30
1931-5
1936-40
1941-5*
1946-50*
-
-
34.0
37.0
39.0
34.7
33.0
33.8
34.6
33.5
28.3
-
-
49
46
48
49
46
45
40
-
-
40.8
44.4
45.5
42.4
45.2
38.8
45.2
46.9
46.9
47.3
46.9
46.6
43.1
41.9
-
-
51.4
47.7
49.1
48.2
-
-
Source from: EMS IIPS Compilation

14. Death Rate, Infant Mortality Rate in Indian Sub-continent, various
Sources, 1871-1951
Source from: EMS IIPS Compilation
These figures relate to the territory included in India at the time of Partition in 1947
Year
Death Rate Infant Mortality Rate
Registration data Life table
estimates
Davis Ghosh Das Gupta Visaria Registration data Life table
estimates
Das Gupta
1871-81
1881-91
1891-1901
1901-11
1911-15
1916-20
1921-5
1926-30
1931-5
1936-40
1941-5
1946-50
-
-
-
-
30.2
38.2
26.3
24.6
23.6
22.3
22.5
18.7
40.7
40.0
42.0
43.7
49.8
37.3
31.5
-
-
41.3
44.4
42.6
48.6
36.3
31.2
-
-
-
38
41
42
33
32
-
39.9
41.8
43.0
43.7
40.8
34.3
30.2
25.2
-
-
50.0
41.7
48.6
37.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
204.2
218.8
174.3
177.6
174.0
161.4
161.0
134.0
263
256
272
287
290
241
211
-
278
287
292
295
282
247
227
199

15. Indian Population, Census 1951-2011
Year
Population in
thousands
Decadal
growth rate
(%)
Popn. Per
square km
Urban
Population %
1951 3,61,088 117 17.3
1961 4,39,235 21.5 142 18.0
1971 5,48,160 24.8 177 19.9
1981 6,83,329 24.7 216 23.3
1991 8,46,421 23.9 267 25.7
2001 10,28,737 21.5 325 27.8
2011 12,10,855 17.7 382 31.1
Source: RBI, Handbook of statistics on Indian Economy
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx%3Fhead%3DHandbook%20of%
20Statistics%20on%20Indian%20States

16. Age at marriage
Source from: Dandekar K (1974)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/4363695
Mean at marriage (in Years)
Census Men Women
1971 22.7 17.7
1981 23.4 18.7
1991 24 19.3
2001 24.8 20.2
2011 24.9 20.7

17. Literacy in India
http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/reports_and_publication/statistical_publication/social_statistics/WM17Chapter3.pdf

18. Literacy in India
http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/reports_and_publication/statistical_publication/social_statistics/WM17Chapter3.pdf

19. India’s Population by Religious Community, 1961-2011
1961 1981 2001 2011 Growth
rate
2001-
2011
(%)
RELIGION
No in
millions
%
No in
millions
%
No in
millions
%
No in
millions
%
All Religions 439 100 665 100 1,029 100 1,211 100 17.7
Hindus 367 83.4 550 82.6 828 80.5 966 79.8 16.8
Muslims 47 10.7 76 11.4 138 13.4 172 14.2 24.6
Christians 11 2.4 16 2.4 24 2.3 28 2.3 15.5
Sikhs 8 1.8 13 2 19 1.9 21 1.7 8.4
Buddhists 3 0.7 5 0.7 8 0.8 8 0.7 6.1
Jains 2 0.5 3 0.5 4 0.4 5 0.4 5.4
Others 1 0.3 3 0.4 7 0.6 8 0.7 -
Religion not
stated
<1 - <1 - 1 0.1 3 0.2 -
Sources: Census of India, various years.

20. Proportion of SC/ST Population
India – 2001, 2011
Source: Census of India 2011: PCA Highlights
https://censusindia.gov.in/2011census/population_enumeration.html

21. Family Planning Use
Survey
Married
women
currently using
any modern
method of
contraception
(%)
Unmet need for
family planning
(%)
1992-93 DHS 36.5 20.3
1998-99 DHS 42.8 16.1
2005-06 DHS 48.5 13.9
2015-16 DHS 47.8 12.9
Source: National Family Health Survey
respective years (www.statcompiler.com)
UN estimates of contraceptive use for
India
Year
Age
Group
Any
method (%)
Any
modern
method (%)
1971 15-44 13.6 9.5
1981 15+ 35.3 28.1
1988 15-44 44.9 39.9
1993 15-49 40.7 36.5
1999 15-49 48.2 42.8
2000 15-49 46.9 42.3
2004 15-44 53 45.7
2006 15-49 56.3 48.5
2008 15-49 54.8 48.1
2016 15-49 53.5 47.8
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and
Social Affairs, Population Division (2020). World
Contraceptive Use 2020 (POP/DB/CP/Rev2020)
First country to Launch National Programme for Family Planning in 1952

22. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: USUAL STATUS (per 1000)
Year
Urban
Males
Urban
Females
Rural
Males
Rural
Females
1993-94 40 62 14 8
1999-00 45 57 17 10
2004-05 38 69 16 18
2009-10 28 57 16 16
2011-12 30 52 17 17
2017-18 71 108 58 38
2018-19 71 99 56 35
NSSO estimates: taken from
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx%3Fhead%3DHandbook%20of%20Statistics
%20on%20Indian%20States

23. Poverty Rate
Number / percentage Poor
No. of Persons (in
Lakhs) Percentage
2004-05 4076.1 37.2
2009-10 3546.8 29.8
2011-12 2697.8 21.9
MRP: Mixed Recall Period
Sources: National Sample Survey Organization and NITI Aayog. taken from
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx%3Fhead%3DHandbook%20of%20Statistics%20on%20Indian%20States

24. Migration effect on population trend in India

25. Thank you