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Devops field guide to
understanding
cognitive biases
Hi!
I'm Lindsay Holmwood
@auxesis
Engineering manager
@
Bulletproof Networks
Co-organise Sydney
Devops meetups
Started
Devops Down Under
New iPhone

http://www.flickr.com/photos/williamhook/4742869256/
Your current
iPhone crashes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/10268891@N07/856565056/
Your current
iPhone is slower
http://www.flickr.com/photos/brenderous/3671106784/
Time to upgrade!
Why?
Apple has made
my device slower!
Clustering
illusion
See patterns in
randomness
See correlations
where they are none
Your device has
always been that slow
Clustering illusion
is a

Cognitive bias
What is
cognitive bias?
"Mental shortcut"
Timeliness
Accuracy
http://www.flickr.com/photos/frostnova/2268471558/
•

Problem solving

•

Heuristic

•

Correct result

•

Rational choice
•

Problem solving

•

Heuristic

•

Incorrect result

•

Cognitive bias!
Heuristic?
Pattern matching

Heuristics are simple, efficient rules often used by people to form judgements and make
decisions.
Involve focusing on specific information, and ignoring others.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/buttim/1297081125/sizes/o
What helped
your ancestors
survive!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dhdesign/1096464615/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/princess_l_88/4948893120/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cphotos/4780625450/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/amesis/3777130839/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artotemsco/5465529987/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fish2000/4648423198/
e it
se

ove
go

e re
rh

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cphotos/4780625450/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cphotos/4780625450/
wa

sa

ctu

al l

yh

ere

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cphotos/4780625450/
Confirmation bias
Seek information that
reinforces position
Ignore alternative
explanations
Interpret ambiguous
information in your
favour!
http://www.comedycentral.com/press/images/colbertreport/stephencolbert2.jpg
Who is clueless enough to think
Colbert is a conservative?
•

Why do conservatives like
Stephen Colbert?
•

Ohio study finds conservatives
believe Colbert dislikes liberalism
•

http://althouse.blogspot.com.au/2006/05/who-is-clueless-enough-to-think.html
http://www.alternet.org/story/137918/why_do_conservatives_like_stephen_colbert
http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/ohio-study-finds-conservatives-believe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4
Debugging code
My code is perfect!
I know the
problem is in
this other library
I just can't find it!
*30 minutes pass*
The bug was in
my code
Counter this
behaviour
Take opposing
viewpoints
In studies of stock markets, investors made more profit when the resisted bias.
To combat the effects, investors can adopt a contrary viewpoint "for the sake of argument".
Krueger, David; Mann, John David (2009), The Secret Language of Money: How to Make Smarter Financial Decisions and
Live a Richer Life, McGraw Hill Professional, pp. 112–113,ISBN 978-0-07-162339-1, OCLC 277205993
Is your conclusion
negative?
It could be biased.
Cognitive therapy is a type of psychotherapy developed in the 1960's that has become a
popular approach to combating cognitive biases.
As new data tends to reinforce existing opinions, cognitive therapy teaches people to
interpret new data impartially.
Harness this
behaviour
Good collaboration?
Free pass on infractions

When people are given feedback that conflicts with their self image, they regard it as
unreliable and are less likely to act on it.
Confirmation reinforces,
You ignore other sources
Provisioning
automation
https://twitter.com/aussielunix
•

•

•

•

Provisioning:
We're being hurt badly by VMware provs!
Software:
We'll automate that now!
2 weeks later
Provisioning:
We're being hurt badly by load balancer
provs!
•

•

•

•

Software:
We'll automate that now!
1 week later
•

•

•

•

Provisioning:
We're being hurt badly by VMware provs!
Software:
We'll automate that now!
4 weeks later
•

•

•

•

Provisioning:
We're being hurt badly by EC2 provs!
Software:
We'll automate that now!
18 months
What is
happening?
Working on the thing
closest to us that
hurts us most.
But it's not the biggest
problem overall!
Would you work
like this?
Hindsight bias
"knew it all
along" effect
memory distortion

you alter your memories to fit a narrative in your head of how you perceived things
Asiana pilot "couldn't see runway before crash"

•

Pilots in Asiana crash relied on automatic equipment for airspeed

•

Asiana says crash pilot was in training

•

Inexperienced pilots may be cause of Asiana jet crash

•

Asiana pilots "stayed silent until two seconds before crash"

•

Fears pilots' manual flying skills eroding after Asiana crash

•

•

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2013/07/10/12/43/asiana-pilot-couldn-t-see-runwaybefore-crash
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/17940112/asiana-flight-crew-saw-troubleat-500-feet-u-s-safety-board-says/
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/crash-pilots-wanted-to-abort-landing-asboeing-777-approached-airport-too-low-investigators/story-e6frg6so-1226675762698
http://www.theguardian.com.au/story/1628513/inexperienced-pilots-may-be-cause-ofasiana-jet-crash/?cs=5
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/asiana-airline-pilots-stayed-silentuntil-two-seconds-before-crash-at-san-francisco-airport-8698477.html
http://www.news.com.au/world-news/fears-pilots-manual-flying-skills-eroding-afterasiana-airlines-crash-in-san-francisco/story-fndir2ev-1226676769126
Judgement
"You were capable
of preventing
a bad outcome"
Monitoring thresholds
"I don't want that thing
that woke me last night
to wake me again"
"I'm going to make that
problem go away."
But...
How often does
that alert fire?
What percentage
of all alerts is that?
Are there other alerts
that are more frequent?
What makes this alert the
most important to fix?
Counter this
behaviour
Collect data!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
Analyse that data

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
Make decisions
based on that data

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
Act on data,
not feelings
Scientific method works great for experimentation, but things fall down once you publish
your evidence:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publication_bias
Explain in terms
of foresight
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias#Judicial_system
Hindsight blinds,
Foresight finds
http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiogabe/5535916719/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sjliew/1311490235/
Impossible deadline

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pcb85/4258475681/
???
"I don't know what
you're complaining
about"
"It's just a
bunch of typing"

http://www.flickr.com/photos/jjackowski/3812946635/
Dunning-Kruger effect

https://www.math.ucdavis.edu/~suh/metacognition.pdf
The less you know
about a topic, the
better you think
you are at it
The less you know
about a topic, the
poorer your ability to
recognise skill in others
The more you know
about a topic, the
worse you think
you are at it
Why?
•

More skill

•

More practice

•

More experience

•

See complexity + nuance
"Curse of knowledge"
•

Less skill

•

Less practice

•

Less experience

•

No peer feedback
"Poor performers
don't learn from
feedback suggesting
a need to improve"
Examples
"I can write code
better than any of our
developers"
"I can scale our
systems way better
than our sysadmins"
"I can lead
people way better
than my boss"
NO. YOU
CAN'T.
You are not a
unique snowflake
Counter this
behaviour
Minimal training
Improved self-assessment

DevOps in a nutshell
grossly incompetent subjects improved their ability to self-assess own skills level after
minimal training
regardless of an actual improvement in that skill
Make engineers
managers
this is a large hammer to wield, but it can be effective
Non-technical
manager?
Lean on your engineers!
Ethnic diversity

most of the studies of dunning-kruger have been in western cultures
preliminary research suggests there may be an opposite effect in east-asian cultures
The incompetent gloat,
The capable choke
Confirmation bias
Hindsight bias
Dunning-Kruger effect
How vulnerable to
these biases are you?

Quick show of hands - given everything you've just heard about these biases, how vulnerable
to them do you think you are?
•

"I'm aware of my biases"

•

"These don't affect me"

•

"I am better than average"
Better-than-average effect
&
Illusory superiority
Bias blind spot
•

Positive attributes

•

Above average
•

Negative attributes

•

Below average
Why?
Self-esteem
Control
Confirmation reinforces,
You ignore other sources
Hindsight blinds,
Foresight finds
The incompetent gloat,
The capable choke
Rhyme-as-reason
effect
Aesthetics affect truth
•

Fluent, Fast, Smooth

•

Higher value
This is a test
1.Read the statement once
2.Count the letter F
FINAL FOLIOS SEEM TO RESULT
FROM YEARS OF DUTIFUL STUDY
OF TEXTS ALONG WITH YEARS OF
SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE.
How many
did you see?
The answer is 8
Fluency heuristic

http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/rh/RH_Fluency_2008.pdf
FINAL FOLIOS SEEM TO RESULT
FROM YEARS OF DUTIFUL STUDY
OF TEXTS ALONG WITH YEARS OF
SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE.
Brain expects pattern
to continue
Brain skips
other information
Counter this
behaviour
http://www.wrayherbert.com/blog/memory-learning-and-the-fluency-heuristic
Trigger more
deliberate
thinking
Use checklists
Induce
randomness
Harness this
behaviour
Rhyme your
mantras
Make text
styling simple
Have you learnt
anything?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY
How many passes?
What's on the
gorilla's chest?
Did you see the
curtains change
colour?
Or one of the
players leave?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY
It ain't what you don't know
that gets you into trouble.
•

It's what you know for sure
that just ain't so.
•

•

Mark Twain
Creating "good culture"
is a distraction.
Culture is made
from people
Understand how
you think.
Become more
rational.
Become less
rationalising.
Improve ourselves.
Culture will flow.
Thank you!
♥ the talk?
Let @auxesis know!
•

Further reading

•

You Are Not So Smart - David McRaney

Sway: The irresistible pull of irrational
behavior - Ori Brafman
•

•

Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

•

Checklist Manifesto - Atul Gawande

The field guide to understanding
human error - Sidney Dekker
•

http://www.amazon.com/You-Are-Not-So-Smart/dp/1592407366/
http://www.amazon.com/Sway-Irresistible-Pull-Irrational-Behavior/dp/0385530609/
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/
http://www.amazon.com/The-Checklist-Manifesto-Things-Right/dp/0312430000/
http://www.amazon.com/Field-Guide-Understanding-Human-Error/dp/0754648265/

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