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SPREAD 2050: Peak Everything & Black Swans

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Demos Helsinki
Demos Helsinki

Harri Paloheimo explains peak everything and Black Swans. Counting Backwards Workshop, 24–25 Nov 2011 / the Helsinki meeting of 60 experts in SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu & www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/community

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Perfect Storm SPREAD workshop 2011-11-24 Coreorient Oy Harri Paloheimo 11/24/11 © Coreorient Oy 2011. All rights reserved.
11/24/11 © Coreorient Oy 2011. All rights reserved. Northern hemisphere Ave. Surface temperature population CO2 GDP Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland Water use Species extenction motor vehicles Fisheries exploited Ozone depletion Phosphorus price Source: New Scientist, 2008 Rare earth Metals price
Oil EROEI 11/24/11 © Coreorient Oy 2011. All rights reserved. Energy cost Net energy USA 100:1 USA 30:1 USA 11:1 World 18:1
Black Swans 11/24/11 © Coreorient Oy 2011. All rights reserved. Fusion energy, energy prices drop 90% Methane clathrates erupt Megatsunami , 10 nuclear plants explode in India, fall-out over China China initates a global geongineering program India and Pakistan go to war over water Using tactical nuclear weapons Global pandemia cuts population to 1 BN US economy collapses, federal state dissolves, no more ” american dream” Saudi-arabia becomes a failed state, oil price 1000$/bbl, gold 10 k$/oz Cell ageing solved, Life expectancy 150 yrs Palm oil revolution, ex -3rd world takes the Global leadership Green-militia& anti wall-street movement spreads globally

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SPREAD 2050: Peak Everything & Black Swans

  • 1. Perfect Storm SPREAD workshop 2011-11-24 Coreorient Oy Harri Paloheimo 11/24/11 © Coreorient Oy 2011. All rights reserved.
  • 2. 11/24/11 © Coreorient Oy 2011. All rights reserved. Northern hemisphere Ave. Surface temperature population CO2 GDP Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland Water use Species extenction motor vehicles Fisheries exploited Ozone depletion Phosphorus price Source: New Scientist, 2008 Rare earth Metals price
  • 3. Oil EROEI 11/24/11 © Coreorient Oy 2011. All rights reserved. Energy cost Net energy USA 100:1 USA 30:1 USA 11:1 World 18:1
  • 4. Black Swans 11/24/11 © Coreorient Oy 2011. All rights reserved. Fusion energy, energy prices drop 90% Methane clathrates erupt Megatsunami , 10 nuclear plants explode in India, fall-out over China China initates a global geongineering program India and Pakistan go to war over water Using tactical nuclear weapons Global pandemia cuts population to 1 BN US economy collapses, federal state dissolves, no more ” american dream” Saudi-arabia becomes a failed state, oil price 1000$/bbl, gold 10 k$/oz Cell ageing solved, Life expectancy 150 yrs Palm oil revolution, ex -3rd world takes the Global leadership Green-militia& anti wall-street movement spreads globally