Presentation by David Wood of Delta Wisdom and London Futurists, at Augmented Planet at Campus London on 17 Nov 2014. The goal of the slides is that, by anticipating a hostile reaction for Augmented Reality, we can actually ensure it has a rosy future instead.

1. Anticipating a hostile reception for Augmented Reality
Principal, Delta Wisdom
Chair, London Futurists
David Wood @dw2

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Opportunities
Threats
The set of possible futures
Foresight…
… is hard

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Rate of pace of change increasing
Foresight…
… getting harder
Complex convergence
of technologies
and convergence of risks
Opportunities
Threats
So we need to get better at it!

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Threats
Product failures
•Battery life too short
•Software too slow
•UX non-intuitive
•Motion sickness
•Users can’t get dates
Users dislike the products
•(Technological solutions)
•(Plus design skills)
•(Plus smart business models)
Political failures
•Users fear the products
•Users campaign against them
•Ecosystem falls apart
•Product development falters
•?!
•Technological solutions?!
•Design & biz model skills?!
•Political & marketing skills!?

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Technologies with adverse political reaction
http://www.kabntr.org/plasticsucks/april-showers-bring-may-gmo-laced-flora-fauna-and-food/
http://honestlyhealthyfood.com/2014/03/11/gmos-genetically-modified-organisms-alkaline/

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Technologies with adverse political reaction
http://www.kabntr.org/plasticsucks/april-showers-bring-may-gmo-laced-flora-fauna-and-food/
http://honestlyhealthyfood.com/2014/03/11/gmos-genetically-modified-organisms-alkaline/
http://worldink.org/2014/02/15/genetically-modified-everything/

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Technologies with adverse political reaction
http://www.buzzle.com/articles/nuclear-energy/

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Technologies with adverse political reaction

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Surveillance society
•“We’ll Spy on You Through Your Dishwasher”
•CIA Director David Petraeus
–“Items of interest will be located, identified, monitored, and remotely controlled through technologies such as RFID, sensor networks, tiny embedded servers, and energy harvesters — all connected to the next-generation internet using abundant, low-cost, and high-power computing”
–“Transformational is an overused word, but I do believe it properly applies to these technologies, particularly to their effect on clandestine tradecraft”
•Not to mention smart cameras everywhere, plus computer vision
www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/03/petraeus-tv-remote/

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Surveillance society
http://venturebeat.com/2014/03/30/which-smart-glasses-will-be-right-for-you/
EyeTap, Univ Toronto
Epson Moverio
GlassUp
Optinvent ORA
KAIST univ K-Glass
Atheer One
Lumus DK-40
Vuzix M2000AR
MIT SixthSense
CastAR
Recon Jet
Google Glass
Pivothead Smart
+ many more

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Surveillance society
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-08/06/wifi-radar
Research by University College London engineers Karl Woodbridge and Kevin Chetty Utilises Doppler effect
“See through walls with WiFi radar”

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Is your connected car spying on you?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29566764

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Existing CCTV cameras
•Already pervasive
•5.9 million CCTV cameras in the UK
•750,000 in “sensitive locations” such as schools, hospitals, and care homes
•Monitored only by “trusted authorities” (?)
Augmented Reality cameras
•Everybody can wear them
•Unclear when glasses (etc) are recording
–Cameras may be on mini-drones
•Unclear who is looking at the data
•Other sensors too! (not just cameras)
–Eye tracking
–Heart-rate monitor
•Faster (bewildering) rate of change
•The straw that breaks the camel’s back?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10172298/One-surveillance- camera-for-every-11-people-in-Britain-says-CCTV-survey.html

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Privacy battles
Information leaked or stolen
–About our finances
–Our health (and insurability)
–Our business deals
–Who we are interviewing with
–Who we socialise with
–Our political beliefs
–Our vulnerabilities
Demands for privacy systems
–That are Reliable
–Affordable for all (not just the rich)
–Easily understood (transparent)
 Powerful arms race
–Hackers vs. protectors

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Existing CCTV cameras
•Already pervasive
•5.9 million CCTV cameras in the UK
•750,000 in “sensitive locations” such as schools, hospitals, and care homes
•Monitored only by “trusted authorities” (?)
Augmented Reality cameras
•Everybody can wear them
•Unclear when glasses (etc) are recording
–Cameras may be on mini-drones
•Unclear who is looking at the data
•Other sensors too! (not just cameras)
–Eye tracking
–Heart-rate monitor
•Faster (bewildering) rate of change
•The straw that breaks the camel’s back?
•Resentment against premium info flow received by wealthy owners of AR
–In age of increasing tech unemployment
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10172298/One-surveillance- camera-for-every-11-people-in-Britain-says-CCTV-survey.html

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Technological unemployment
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2826463/CBRE-report-warns-50-cent-occupations-redundant- 20-years-time.html
“Will YOUR job still exist in 2025? New report warns
50% of occupations will be redundant in 11 years time”

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Technological unemployment
http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/05/khosla-explains-his-robots-replacing-doctors-comment- and-goes-on-the-hunt-for-data-scientists/
“By 2025, 80% of the functions doctors do will be done much better and much more cheaply by machines & algorithms” – Vinod Khosla
“80% of doctors will be replaced by technology”

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http://dw2blog.com/2011/05/07/workers-beware-the-robots-are-coming/

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www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/RAcruikshank.htm
George Cruikshank, The Horses 'Going to the Dogs'
1829

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“Humans need not apply”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
Channel: CGP Grey

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http://owsposters.tumblr.com/post/11688983653/middle-class-family-an-endangered-species

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http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/

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http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2541541/Google-hiring-security-guards-protect-work-buses-San- Francisco-following-protests-tech-workers-driving-city-rents.html

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http://rift.transcendencemovie.com/

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/jamiebartlett/100013504/as-technology-swamps-our-lives-the- next-unabombers-are-waiting-for-their-moment/
Ted Kaczinski
1978 to 1995, sent 16 bombs to targets
including universities and airlines
killing three people and injuring 23.
30,000 word essay
Industrial Society and Its Future
“Individualists Tending toward the Wild”
2011, Mexico
“To injure or kill scientists and researchers
(by the means of whatever violent act)
who ensure the Technoindustrial System
continues its course”
Bombed nanotech research centre, Monterrey

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Conclusions
•The successful future of Augmented Reality depends on a lot more than raw technology
•We should anticipate a potential societal backlash, against tech in general, and against the ubiquitous use of micro-cameras
•We need to talk through the issues in advance, in a balanced programme of education
•Explain why the AR security systems can be trusted
–And if we can’t explain them, we should re-design them!
–Relying on “security by obscurity” is a recipe for major political backlash
•Encrypting our own data isn’t sufficient, since we will be observed by cameras and sensors outside our direct control
–Are there technical methods to detect & prevent unwanted filming?
–Are there political methods to avoid increasing sense of alienation?

30. Anticipating a hostile reception for Augmented Reality
Principal, Delta Wisdom
Chair, London Futurists
David Wood @dw2