Presentation by Mr. Andri Ramdhani (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics) at the Seminar Cutting Edge Hydro Software for South-East Asia, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2018. Thursday, 6 September 2018, Yogyakarta.

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BMKG
Dr. ANDRI RAMDHANI
Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)
2018
http://peta-maritim.bmkg.go.id/cifdp/maps“Coupling of Wave and Hydrodynamic Models for Predicting Coastal
Inundation: A case study in Jakarta and Semarang”

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BMKG
OUTLINE
• Background
• Overview of CIFDP
• Coupling of Wave and Hydrodynamic Models
• Integrated into Flood Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS)
• Preliminary model validation
• Summary & Next Step

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BMKG
ISSUES AND NEED FOR IMPROVED COASTAL
FLOOD FORECASTING & WARNINGS
• Indonesia as archipelagic countries is very prone to coastal hazard
• coastal flooding by extreme wave events, tropical cyclones, and high
tides
• Persisting threat of Tsunami
• Increased risk of coastal inundation due to sea level rise + land
subsidence. As a Sample in Jakarta and Semarang City
Western coast of Sumatera
(May -2007)
Semarang (May, June)
Jakarta (DJF, May -June)
Southern coast of Java
(June -2016)
Coastal
Flood
Forecasting
and
Warning

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BMKG
BMKG WARNING FOR STORM SURGE AND COASTAL INUNDATION
AT SOUTHERN OF JAVA (8-10 JUNE 2016)
BASED ON BMKG–OFS BMKG WARNING MAP
Storm tide occurred in 7th – 8th June, 2016 combination of Spring Tide and Propagation
of High Swell generated from Mascarene High (Subtropical High) on Indian Ocean
Western Of Australia.
According to data from the National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB) there are
23 cities in Java and Bali were affected by the this storm tide.

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BMKG
BMKG - OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM
Ocean Waves Model
BMKG – OFS
(Ocean Forecast System)
http://peta-maritim.bmkg.go.id/ofs
Ocean Circulation Model
Coastal Dynamic Model
(wind, waves, swell)
(tide, sea level, coastal inundation)
(currents, sea temp., salinity)

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BMKG
BMKG OFS: WAVE MODEL FLOW CHART
Hindcast / Reanalisis:
Wind & Wave Climatology
Forecast
Up to 7 Days forecast:
- Waves: Height, direction, period
- Surface Wind: speed, direction
- Swell: Height, direction, period

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BMKG
WIND PREDICTION

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BMKG
OCEAN WAVES: WIND SEA, SWELL, SEA STATE

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BMKG
BMKG OFS : OCEAN CIRCULATION FLOW CHART
Hindcast / Reanalisis:
Current, Sea Temp, and Salinity Climatology
Forecast
Up to 3 Days forecast:
Surface, 5 m, 10 m, 100 m, 250m
- Currents: speed, direction
- Sea temp: speed, direction
- Salinity

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BMKG
SEA CURRENT
Surface 25 m
50 m 100 m

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BMKG
SEA TEMPERATURE
Surface 25 m
50 m 100 m

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BMKG
SALINTY
Surface 25 m
50 m 100 m

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BMKG
COASTAL INUNDATION FORECASTING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (CIFDP)
www.jcomm.info/CIFDP
2013
2017
2014

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BMKG
CIFDP-INDONESIA ( CIFDP-I)
• Through Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration
Project (CIFDP), BMKG was initiated to developed coastal
inundation forecasting system in Indonesia.
• CIFDP-I conducted at Jakarta and Semarang as pilot
project (both of locations were consider due to high risk
vulnerability to the impact of coastal inundation)
• BMKG collaborate with other institution, to create the
National Coordination Team (NCT)
• The NCT already signed at Jakarta, on March 29, 2017

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BMKG
CIFDP-I - NATIONAL COORDINATION TEAM
(NCT)
1.BMKG :
 Coordinator of development forecasting system and early warning coastal inundation;
• Develop a model of coastal inundation;
2. Ministry of Pubic Work:
Provide data for water level and flow of water from the river water from post of expected
water level and characteristic of the river basins in the region.
3. BIG (Geospatial Information Agency )
• Provide tidal data
• Provide the topography data
4. BNPB (National Board for Disaster Management)
Coordinate disseminating to the regional disaster management related to forecasting
information and early warning coastal inundation;
5.Ministry of Marine and Fisheries
Disseminate forecasting information and early warning of coastal inundation

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BMKG
CIFDP – SYSTEM DESIGN

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BMKG
CIFDP-I : MODEL DIAGRAM

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BMKG
CIFDP-I: MODEL IMPLEMENTATION
Model Scheme for CIFDP-I:
1.Coupled Wave-Hydrodynamic Model
1.1 Nested Wavewatch III (WW3) – SWAN model (BMKG-OFS)
1.2 Coupled Delft3D-FLOW – SWAN (Delft3D-WAVE)
Output: Tide + Storm Surge + Wave
2. Integrated with Delft-FEWS and SOBEK Model
Output: Coastal Inundation Maps

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BMKG
CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST
• Event: Coastal Flooding at Jakarta: June 5 -6, 2016
• Atmospheric Forcing (wind 10 m, pressure ) : NCEP Final Analysis (0.50 x 0.50)
Boundary conditions for these models are derived from the South China Sea
(SCS) model for the storm surge and a regional Pantura (Northern coast of
Java) model for the storm surge and wave signal.
Tidal components are also prescribed at the open boundaries of the detail
model to obtain as accurately as possible forecast of total water level at
Semarang and Jakarta to allow for proper flood forecast.

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BMKG
CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST
( SURGE BOUNDARY & WAVE SIGNAL)
Wave Signal form BMKG - WW3 Model
(Resolution: 0.0625o x 0.0625 o)
Storm surge is computed by the SCS
model. The results are fed to the Pantura
model, and subsequently offline
nested to the detail models (Jakarta & Semarang)

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BMKG
COUPLING OF WAVE AND HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL
(tide + storm surge + wave)
Surge Boundary Condition +
Wave Signal
Coupled Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN Model
CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST
( COUPLED DELFT3D-FLOW + SWAN MODEL)

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BMKG
CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST
(INTEGRATED WITH DELFT FEWS AND SOBEK MODEL)
Tide + Storm Surge + Wave
SOBEK Model
Inundation Map

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BMKG
INUNDATION MAP RESULT:
(JUNE 05-06, 2016)

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BMKG
INUNDATION MAP :
(JUNE 06, 2016)
MarundaMuara Angke

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BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (1)
Observation vs Surge SCS vs Tide+Surge+Wave
Computed water level at the port Entrance of Jakarta by the Jakarta detail
flooding model that includes tide, surge and wave set-up compared to
observations.

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BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (2) - JAKARTA
Obs:Tide GaugeModel CIFDP-I Astronomical Tide Prediction
7 days

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BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (3) - SEMARANG
Obs: Tide GaugeModel CIFDP-I
10 days

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BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (4) – JAKARTA
Des.(2016) – Jan(2017) – Feb (2017) (3 month)

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BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (5) – SEMARANG
Des.(2016) – Jan(2017) – Feb (2017) (3 month)

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BMKG
CIFDP-I – TIME LINE
2019
Operational
2018
2016 &
2017

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BMKG
On progress (http://peta-maritim.bmkg.go.id/cifdp/maps)
WEB BASED VISUALIZATION FOR CIFDP-I
(ON PROGRESS)

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BMKG
SUMMARY & NEXT STEP
• The simulation results compare favorably with observed water
level.
• The remaining challenges in further development is to refine the
models resolution and to improve the bathymetry and DEM.
• The grid will be refined (at the moment it is approximately 150 m),
• Bathymetry and DEM (Digital Elevation model) will be updated
(new dataset),
• Coastal protection structures (in the form of weirs and thin dams)
and river discharges boundary condition will be added.

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BMKG
To transform from “Demonstration” to
“Coastal Inundation Forecasting System
(BMKG-CIFS)”;

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THANK YOU
andri.ramdhani@bmkg.go.id