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1
BMKG
Dr. ANDRI RAMDHANI
Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)
2018
http://peta-maritim.bmkg...
2
BMKG
OUTLINE
• Background
• Overview of CIFDP
• Coupling of Wave and Hydrodynamic Models
• Integrated into Flood Early W...
3
BMKG
ISSUES AND NEED FOR IMPROVED COASTAL
FLOOD FORECASTING & WARNINGS
• Indonesia as archipelagic countries is very pro...
4
BMKG
BMKG WARNING FOR STORM SURGE AND COASTAL INUNDATION
AT SOUTHERN OF JAVA (8-10 JUNE 2016)
BASED ON BMKG–OFS BMKG WAR...
5
BMKG
BMKG - OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM
Ocean Waves Model
BMKG – OFS
(Ocean Forecast System)
http://peta-maritim.bmkg.go.id/of...
6
BMKG
BMKG OFS: WAVE MODEL FLOW CHART
Hindcast / Reanalisis:
Wind & Wave Climatology
Forecast
Up to 7 Days forecast:
- Wa...
7
BMKG
WIND PREDICTION
8
BMKG
OCEAN WAVES: WIND SEA, SWELL, SEA STATE
9
BMKG
BMKG OFS : OCEAN CIRCULATION FLOW CHART
Hindcast / Reanalisis:
Current, Sea Temp, and Salinity Climatology
Forecast...
10
BMKG
SEA CURRENT
Surface 25 m
50 m 100 m
11
BMKG
SEA TEMPERATURE
Surface 25 m
50 m 100 m
12
BMKG
SALINTY
Surface 25 m
50 m 100 m
13
BMKG
COASTAL INUNDATION FORECASTING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (CIFDP)
www.jcomm.info/CIFDP
2013
2017
2014
14
BMKG
CIFDP-INDONESIA ( CIFDP-I)
• Through Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration
Project (CIFDP), BMKG was initia...
15
BMKG
CIFDP-I - NATIONAL COORDINATION TEAM
(NCT)
1.BMKG :
 Coordinator of development forecasting system and early warn...
16
BMKG
CIFDP – SYSTEM DESIGN
17
BMKG
CIFDP-I : MODEL DIAGRAM
18
BMKG
CIFDP-I: MODEL IMPLEMENTATION
Model Scheme for CIFDP-I:
1.Coupled Wave-Hydrodynamic Model
1.1 Nested Wavewatch III...
19
BMKG
CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST
• Event: Coastal Flooding at Jakarta: June 5 -6, 2016
• Atmospheric Forcing (wind 10 m, ...
20
BMKG
CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST
( SURGE BOUNDARY & WAVE SIGNAL)
Wave Signal form BMKG - WW3 Model
(Resolution: 0.0625o x...
21
BMKG
COUPLING OF WAVE AND HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL
(tide + storm surge + wave)
Surge Boundary Condition +
Wave Signal
Coupled...
22
BMKG
CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST
(INTEGRATED WITH DELFT FEWS AND SOBEK MODEL)
Tide + Storm Surge + Wave
SOBEK Model
Inund...
23
BMKG
INUNDATION MAP RESULT:
(JUNE 05-06, 2016)
24
BMKG
INUNDATION MAP :
(JUNE 06, 2016)
MarundaMuara Angke
25
BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (1)
Observation vs Surge SCS vs Tide+Surge+Wave
Computed water level at the port Entr...
26
BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (2) - JAKARTA
Obs:Tide GaugeModel CIFDP-I Astronomical Tide Prediction
7 days
27
BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (3) - SEMARANG
Obs: Tide GaugeModel CIFDP-I
10 days
28
BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (4) – JAKARTA
Des.(2016) – Jan(2017) – Feb (2017) (3 month)
29
BMKG
PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (5) – SEMARANG
Des.(2016) – Jan(2017) – Feb (2017) (3 month)
30
BMKG
CIFDP-I – TIME LINE
2019
Operational
2018
2016 &
2017
31
BMKG
On progress (http://peta-maritim.bmkg.go.id/cifdp/maps)
WEB BASED VISUALIZATION FOR CIFDP-I
(ON PROGRESS)
32
BMKG
SUMMARY & NEXT STEP
• The simulation results compare favorably with observed water
level.
• The remaining challeng...
33
BMKG
To transform from “Demonstration” to
“Coastal Inundation Forecasting System
(BMKG-CIFS)”;
34
THANK YOU
andri.ramdhani@bmkg.go.id
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DSD-SEA 2018 Coupling of Hydrodynamic and Wave Models for Predicting Coastal Inundation A case study in Jakarta and Semarang - Ramdhani

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Presentation by Mr. Andri Ramdhani (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics) at the Seminar Cutting Edge Hydro Software for South-East Asia, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2018. Thursday, 6 September 2018, Yogyakarta.

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DSD-SEA 2018 Coupling of Hydrodynamic and Wave Models for Predicting Coastal Inundation A case study in Jakarta and Semarang - Ramdhani

  1. 1. 1 BMKG Dr. ANDRI RAMDHANI Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) 2018 http://peta-maritim.bmkg.go.id/cifdp/maps“Coupling of Wave and Hydrodynamic Models for Predicting Coastal Inundation: A case study in Jakarta and Semarang”
  2. 2. 2 BMKG OUTLINE • Background • Overview of CIFDP • Coupling of Wave and Hydrodynamic Models • Integrated into Flood Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS) • Preliminary model validation • Summary & Next Step
  3. 3. 3 BMKG ISSUES AND NEED FOR IMPROVED COASTAL FLOOD FORECASTING & WARNINGS • Indonesia as archipelagic countries is very prone to coastal hazard • coastal flooding by extreme wave events, tropical cyclones, and high tides • Persisting threat of Tsunami • Increased risk of coastal inundation due to sea level rise + land subsidence. As a Sample in Jakarta and Semarang City Western coast of Sumatera (May -2007) Semarang (May, June) Jakarta (DJF, May -June) Southern coast of Java (June -2016) Coastal Flood Forecasting and Warning
  4. 4. 4 BMKG BMKG WARNING FOR STORM SURGE AND COASTAL INUNDATION AT SOUTHERN OF JAVA (8-10 JUNE 2016) BASED ON BMKG–OFS BMKG WARNING MAP Storm tide occurred in 7th – 8th June, 2016 combination of Spring Tide and Propagation of High Swell generated from Mascarene High (Subtropical High) on Indian Ocean Western Of Australia. According to data from the National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB) there are 23 cities in Java and Bali were affected by the this storm tide.
  5. 5. 5 BMKG BMKG - OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM Ocean Waves Model BMKG – OFS (Ocean Forecast System) http://peta-maritim.bmkg.go.id/ofs Ocean Circulation Model Coastal Dynamic Model (wind, waves, swell) (tide, sea level, coastal inundation) (currents, sea temp., salinity)
  6. 6. 6 BMKG BMKG OFS: WAVE MODEL FLOW CHART Hindcast / Reanalisis: Wind & Wave Climatology Forecast Up to 7 Days forecast: - Waves: Height, direction, period - Surface Wind: speed, direction - Swell: Height, direction, period
  7. 7. 7 BMKG WIND PREDICTION
  8. 8. 8 BMKG OCEAN WAVES: WIND SEA, SWELL, SEA STATE
  9. 9. 9 BMKG BMKG OFS : OCEAN CIRCULATION FLOW CHART Hindcast / Reanalisis: Current, Sea Temp, and Salinity Climatology Forecast Up to 3 Days forecast: Surface, 5 m, 10 m, 100 m, 250m - Currents: speed, direction - Sea temp: speed, direction - Salinity
  10. 10. 10 BMKG SEA CURRENT Surface 25 m 50 m 100 m
  11. 11. 11 BMKG SEA TEMPERATURE Surface 25 m 50 m 100 m
  12. 12. 12 BMKG SALINTY Surface 25 m 50 m 100 m
  13. 13. 13 BMKG COASTAL INUNDATION FORECASTING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (CIFDP) www.jcomm.info/CIFDP 2013 2017 2014
  14. 14. 14 BMKG CIFDP-INDONESIA ( CIFDP-I) • Through Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP), BMKG was initiated to developed coastal inundation forecasting system in Indonesia. • CIFDP-I conducted at Jakarta and Semarang as pilot project (both of locations were consider due to high risk vulnerability to the impact of coastal inundation) • BMKG collaborate with other institution, to create the National Coordination Team (NCT) • The NCT already signed at Jakarta, on March 29, 2017
  15. 15. 15 BMKG CIFDP-I - NATIONAL COORDINATION TEAM (NCT) 1.BMKG :  Coordinator of development forecasting system and early warning coastal inundation; • Develop a model of coastal inundation; 2. Ministry of Pubic Work: Provide data for water level and flow of water from the river water from post of expected water level and characteristic of the river basins in the region. 3. BIG (Geospatial Information Agency ) • Provide tidal data • Provide the topography data 4. BNPB (National Board for Disaster Management) Coordinate disseminating to the regional disaster management related to forecasting information and early warning coastal inundation; 5.Ministry of Marine and Fisheries Disseminate forecasting information and early warning of coastal inundation
  16. 16. 16 BMKG CIFDP – SYSTEM DESIGN
  17. 17. 17 BMKG CIFDP-I : MODEL DIAGRAM
  18. 18. 18 BMKG CIFDP-I: MODEL IMPLEMENTATION Model Scheme for CIFDP-I: 1.Coupled Wave-Hydrodynamic Model 1.1 Nested Wavewatch III (WW3) – SWAN model (BMKG-OFS) 1.2 Coupled Delft3D-FLOW – SWAN (Delft3D-WAVE) Output: Tide + Storm Surge + Wave 2. Integrated with Delft-FEWS and SOBEK Model Output: Coastal Inundation Maps
  19. 19. 19 BMKG CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST • Event: Coastal Flooding at Jakarta: June 5 -6, 2016 • Atmospheric Forcing (wind 10 m, pressure ) : NCEP Final Analysis (0.50 x 0.50) Boundary conditions for these models are derived from the South China Sea (SCS) model for the storm surge and a regional Pantura (Northern coast of Java) model for the storm surge and wave signal. Tidal components are also prescribed at the open boundaries of the detail model to obtain as accurately as possible forecast of total water level at Semarang and Jakarta to allow for proper flood forecast.
  20. 20. 20 BMKG CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST ( SURGE BOUNDARY & WAVE SIGNAL) Wave Signal form BMKG - WW3 Model (Resolution: 0.0625o x 0.0625 o) Storm surge is computed by the SCS model. The results are fed to the Pantura model, and subsequently offline nested to the detail models (Jakarta & Semarang)
  21. 21. 21 BMKG COUPLING OF WAVE AND HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL (tide + storm surge + wave) Surge Boundary Condition + Wave Signal Coupled Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN Model CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST ( COUPLED DELFT3D-FLOW + SWAN MODEL)
  22. 22. 22 BMKG CIFDP-I : SIMULATION TEST (INTEGRATED WITH DELFT FEWS AND SOBEK MODEL) Tide + Storm Surge + Wave SOBEK Model Inundation Map
  23. 23. 23 BMKG INUNDATION MAP RESULT: (JUNE 05-06, 2016)
  24. 24. 24 BMKG INUNDATION MAP : (JUNE 06, 2016) MarundaMuara Angke
  25. 25. 25 BMKG PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (1) Observation vs Surge SCS vs Tide+Surge+Wave Computed water level at the port Entrance of Jakarta by the Jakarta detail flooding model that includes tide, surge and wave set-up compared to observations.
  26. 26. 26 BMKG PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (2) - JAKARTA Obs:Tide GaugeModel CIFDP-I Astronomical Tide Prediction 7 days
  27. 27. 27 BMKG PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (3) - SEMARANG Obs: Tide GaugeModel CIFDP-I 10 days
  28. 28. 28 BMKG PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (4) – JAKARTA Des.(2016) – Jan(2017) – Feb (2017) (3 month)
  29. 29. 29 BMKG PRELIMINARY MODEL VALIDATION (5) – SEMARANG Des.(2016) – Jan(2017) – Feb (2017) (3 month)
  30. 30. 30 BMKG CIFDP-I – TIME LINE 2019 Operational 2018 2016 & 2017
  31. 31. 31 BMKG On progress (http://peta-maritim.bmkg.go.id/cifdp/maps) WEB BASED VISUALIZATION FOR CIFDP-I (ON PROGRESS)
  32. 32. 32 BMKG SUMMARY & NEXT STEP • The simulation results compare favorably with observed water level. • The remaining challenges in further development is to refine the models resolution and to improve the bathymetry and DEM. • The grid will be refined (at the moment it is approximately 150 m), • Bathymetry and DEM (Digital Elevation model) will be updated (new dataset), • Coastal protection structures (in the form of weirs and thin dams) and river discharges boundary condition will be added.
  33. 33. 33 BMKG To transform from “Demonstration” to “Coastal Inundation Forecasting System (BMKG-CIFS)”;
  34. 34. 34 THANK YOU andri.ramdhani@bmkg.go.id

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