DSD-INT 2017 Keynote: Coastal Inundation Hazards on Fringing Coral Reefs and Atoll Motu of the South Pacific - Bosserelle
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This document summarizes coastal inundation hazards in Pacific Islands from tropical cyclones. It describes two major inundation events from Tropical Cyclone Pam in 2015 which affected Vanuatu and Tuvalu, and Tropical Cyclone Winston in 2016 which impacted Fiji and Tonga. Maps and images show the extent of inundation and damage from these storms. The document also discusses using numerical modeling and GPU processing to predict coastal inundation and develop early warning systems to help communities prepare for and adapt to these hazards.
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DSD-INT 2017 Keynote: Coastal Inundation Hazards on Fringing Coral Reefs and Atoll Motu of the South Pacific - Bosserelle
- 1. Coastal inundation hazards in Pacific Islands. Cyprien Bosserelle Herve Damlamian, Jens Kruger
- 2. Map of the Pacific
- 3. Introduction
- 4. Coastal inundation events 2008 Regional inundation event 2011 Fiji, Coral Coast 2015 TC Pam, Vanuatu and Tuvalu 2016 TC Winston, Tonga and Fiji
- 5. Coastal inundation on fringing coral reefs Wave + Tide + MWL
- 6. Ever hear of IG waves? ~100s Shore Reef Crest Wave group
- 7. 2 recent major coastal inundation events Tropical Cyclone Pam Tropical Cyclone Winston
- 8. Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam • 6-22 March 2015 • 250 km/h (10min avg) • 280km/h (1min avg) • 896hPa • Fatalities: 15
- 9. TC Pam track Landfall in Vanuatu Damaging swell: • Kiribati • Tuvalu • Futuna • NZ Samoa Futuna WallisRotuma
- 10. TC Pam in Tuvalu
- 11. TC Pam scatterometer wind 10-11 March ~1000km fetch with 20m/s (40knts) wind
- 12. TC Pam track Altimeter data 6-7 m wave height Wallis : 4-5m swell 18s period Futuna: 5-6m swell Coastal inundation Nui Data source: GlobWave
- 13. TC Pam in Vanuatu Wave Model of Cyclone PAM Wave Model of Cyclone PAM For Efate, Vanuatu
- 14. TC Pam in Vanuatu LiDAR (2012) UAV post-cyclone Erosion Accretion UAV limitation in dense vegetation
- 15. TC Pam in Vanuatu : Before/after Before / After: comparing Aerial photograph taken during LiDAR campaign (2012) with UAV orthomosaic
- 16. TC Pam erosion in Efate Erosion Accretion 2015 Beach profile 2012 Beach profile
- 17. Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston • 7-26 Feb 2016 • 280 km/h (10min avg) • 285km/h (1min avg) • 884hPa • Fatalities: 44
- 18. TC Winston track Koro (Nacamaki) Ovalau (OHR) Vanua Levu (Tacilevu)
- 19. Cyclone damages – Nacamaki, Koro Source: Orion aerial survey
- 20. Cyclone damages – Ovalau OHR Source: Orion aerial survey Highest runup The boat floated onto the road here
- 21. Cyclone damages – Vanua Levu,Tacilevu Source: Orion aerial survey Inundation extent
- 22. TC Winston Runup in Ovalau
- 23. TC Winston Runup in Vanua Levu
- 24. Maximum storm tide and significant wave height
- 25. Storm Surge inundation Storm surge driven inundation Complex runup explained
- 26. Tropical Cyclone inundation summary Outputs • Accurate Runup and inundation extent and erosion maps Outcomes • Inundation maps will be used for community awareness work (May also be used in relocations) • This data will serve as a validation for the design of inundation forecasts How to predict coastal inundation in such events ?
- 27. How to predict coastal inundation Rueda et al. • Fast simulations • Hazard assessment • Inundation forecasting • Inundation forecast without super- computers • Need to include IG waves in complex bathymetry Regional/Global Wave model Regional/Global Wind model Local wave+SS model Ocean Water level model Run up model Meta + process-based models
- 28. GPU XBeach 10min simulation; 12 theta bins; 352x576 (5x5m) XBeach_GPU (2.4min) XBeach (2h45min) RMS difference (7.3 x10-5 m) Faster but less flexible and with less precision. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 cpu Quadro K620 Tesla K40 Speed-up
- 29. Coastal inundation forecast: Fiji demonstration • 300 cases • XBeach_GPU • RBF trained • 2 single points • inundation Case: 007 Case: 054 Hs=8.1 Tp=16.5 Dp=240.0 WL=0.49 Hs=10.6 Tp=14.9 Dp=194.0 WL=0.81
- 30. Inundation validation: WACOP data + 2011 event Total Water level Wave setup
- 31. Coral Coast inundation (CIFDP) operational demo
- 32. Missing baseline data is a huge challenge Niutao (Chart 766)
- 33. Final message Hazard information is necessary but not sufficient • Adaptation/mitigation require more work • Need to raise awareness with communities • Visibility of the warning system needs to be raised • Communication is very important We can design a better inundation forecast • Numerical inundation model can be useful for operational use • A lot of bathy, topo and modelling need to be done • Needs additional verfications and calibrations (simulate Pam and Winston Run up)
- 34. Vinaka, Fakafetai, tank yu tumas