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Neslte India Ltd_Financial Model Working.pdf

  1. Segment Count Income Statement 32 Balance Sheet 74 Cash Flow 40 Scenerio Analysis 65 Ratio Analysis 37 WACC 23 Discounted Cash Flow 50 Financial Dashboard 25 Branch and Factories Dashboard 18 Shareholding pattern and Debt/Equtiy 36
  2. Income Statement Amount (in Rs Crores) Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Revenue from Operations 11,292 12,369 13,350 14,709 16,197 17,835 19,639 21,625 Manufacturing Expenses 344 341 314 409 443 488 537 591 Material Consumed 4,644 5,277 5,729 6,381 6,887 7,584 8,351 9,195 Employee Benefit Expenses 1,124 1,258 1,501 1,521 1,689 1,860 2,048 2,255 Selling Expenses 729 785 764 764 960 1,058 1,165 1,282 Administrative Expenses 1,833 1,782 1,841 2,042 2,361 2,600 2,863 3,153 Operating Profit 2,618 2,926 3,201 3,592 3,856 4,246 4,676 5,149 Other Income 259 247 146 120 115 110 105 101 EBITDA 2,877 3,173 3,347 3,712 3,971 4,356 4,781 5,250 Depreciation and Amortisation 336 370 370 390 345 380 419 461 EBIT 2,541 2,803 2,977 3,322 3,626 3,976 4,362 4,788 Interest 112 129 164 201 217 234 253 273 EBT (Earning Before Taxes) 2,429 2,674 2,813 3,121 3,409 3,742 4,109 4,515 Exceptional Items - - - 236 - - - - Taxes 822 705 730 739 1,023 1,122 1,233 1,354 EAT (Earning After Taxes) 1,607 1,969 2,083 2,146 2,386 2,619 2,876 3,160 Assumptions Revenue Growth Rate % 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Manufacturing Expenses % of Revenue 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Material Consumed % of Revenue 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% Employee Benefit Expenses % of Revenue 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Selling Expenses % of Revenue 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Administrative Expenses % of Revenue 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Other Income Growth % -4% -4% -4% -4% -4% Depreciation and Amortisation % of Fixed Assets 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Interest % of Lease liability 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% Taxes 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Actuals Estimates
  3. Balance Sheet Amount (in Rs Crores) Particulars 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 Non Current Assets Property/Plant/Equipment - Gross 3,485 3,719 3,998 5,117 3,458 3,808 4,193 4,617 (-) Accumulated Depreciation 1,085 1,377 1,819 2,123 345 380 419 461 Property/Plant/Equipment - Net 2,401 2,341 2,179 2,994 3,112 3,427 3,774 4,156 Capital Work in Progress 105 143 639 246 346 381 420 462 Long Term Investments 733 744 741 711 705 699 692 685 Long Term Receivable 43 47 47 49 51 53 54 56 Deferred Tax Assets (net) - - 20 26 12 12 12 12 Other Long Term Assets 69 80 89 1,445 476 524 577 635 Total Non Currents Assets 3,351 3,355 3,715 5,471 4,702 5,095 5,529 6,007 Current Assets Inventory 977 1,290 1,433 1,596 1,645 1,811 1,994 2,196 Net Trade Receivables 211 198 232 294 292 321 354 390 Cash 1,599 1,293 1,755 719 1,727 1,901 2,094 2,305 Short Term Investments 1,925 1,007 723 63 131 144 159 175 Other Current Assets 24 28 43 67 49 54 60 66 Total Current Assets 4,736 3,817 4,185 2,739 3,843 4,232 4,660 5,131 Total Assets 8,088 7,172 7,900 8,210 8,546 9,328 10,189 11,138 Equity Shareholder's Funds Equity Share Capital 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 Reserves & Surplus 3,577 1,822 1,923 1,988 1,633 1,728 1,835 1,952 Net Worth 3,673 1,918 2,019 2,084 1,729 1,825 1,931 2,049 Non Current Liabilities Long Term Debt 35 53 32 27 47 52 57 63 Capital Lease Obligations - 90 66 190 136 149 164 181 Deferred Income Tax liability 59 13 - - 36 36 36 36 Other Liabilities 2,465 2,907 3,290 3,305 3,744 4,122 4,539 4,998 Total Non Current Liabilities 2,559 3,064 3,388 3,522 3,962 4,359 4,797 5,278 Current Liabilites Accounts Payable 1,240 1,492 1,517 1,735 1,870 2,060 2,268 2,497 Accrued Expenses 138 185 235 218 241 266 293 322 Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital Leases - 46 50 48 44 48 53 58 Other Current liabilities 477 468 691 602 699 770 848 934 Total Current Liabilities 1,855 2,191 2,493 2,603 2,855 3,143 3,461 3,811 Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity 8,088 7,172 7,900 8,210 8,546 9,328 10,189 11,138 Actuals Estimates
  4. Assumptions Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Notes to information Property/Plant/Equipment - Gross 2,401 2,341 2,179 2,994 3,112 3,427 3,774 4,156 % of Revenue 21% 19% 16% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% Last 4 years Average Capital Work in Progress 105 143 639 246 346 381 420 462 % of Revenue 1% 1% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Last 4 years Average Long Term Investments 733 744 741 711 705 699 692 685 Y-O-Y- Growth % - 1% 0% -4% -1% -1% -1% -1% Last 4 years Average % of growth Long Term Receivable 43 47 47 49 51 53 54 56 Y-O-Y- Growth % - 9% -1% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% Last 4 years Average % of growth Other Long Term Assets 69 80 89 1,445 476 524 577 635 % of Revenue 1% 1% 1% 10% 3% 3% 3% 3% Last 4 years Average Inventory 977 1,290 1,433 1,596 1645 1811 1994 2196 Days Inventory 77 89 91 91 87 87 87 87 Last 4 years Average Total Net Trade Receivables 211 198 232 294 292 321 354 390 Days Receivables 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 Last 4 years Average Cash 1,599 1,293 1,755 719 1,727 1,901 2,094 2,305 % of Revenue 14% 10% 13% 5% 11% 11% 11% 11% Last 4 years Average Short Term Investment 1,925 1,007 723 63 131 144 159 175 % of Revenue 17% 8% 5% 0% 8% 8% 8% 8% Last 4 years Average Other Current Assets 24 28 43 67 49 54 60 66 % of Revenue 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Last 4 years Average Long Term Debt 35 53 32 27 47 52 57 63 % of Revenue 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Last 4 years Average Capital Lease Obligations - 90 66 190 136 149 164 181
  5. % of Revenue 0.7% 0.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Last 4 years Average Other Liabilities 2,465 2,907 3,290 3,305 3,744 4,122 4,539 4,998 % of Revenue 22% 24% 25% 22% 23.1% 23.1% 23.1% 23.1% Last 4 years Average Accounts Payable 1,240 1,492 1,517 1,735 1870 2060 2268 2497 Days Payables 97 103 97 99 99 99 99 99 Last 4 years Average Accrued Expenses 138 185 235 218 241 266 293 322 % of Revenue 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Last 4 years Average Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital Leases - 46 50 48 44 48 53 58 % of Revenue - 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Last 4 years Average Other Current liabilities 477 468 691 602 699 770 848 934 % of Revenue 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Last 4 years Average
  6. Cash Flow Statement Amount (in Rs Crores) Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Cash From Operating Activities Profit Before Tax 2,429 2,673 2,813 2,884 3,409 3,742 4,109 4,515 Adjustments: Depreciation and Amortisation 336 370 370 390 345 380 419 461 Non-Cash Items (244) (239) (122) (122) (130) (139) (149) (403) Changes in Working Capital 413 163 97 (152) 853 100 110 121 Income taxes paid (net of refunds) (881) (673) (703) (729) (780) (834) (893) (955) Net Cash Generated From Operating Activities 2,052 2,295 2,454 2,271 3,697 3,248 3,596 3,739 Cash From Investing Activities Capital Expenditures (166) (155) (478) (735) (464) (695) (766) (843) Other Investing Cash Flow Items 114 238 157 (1,222) (230) (340) (594) (636) Net Cash Generated From Investing Activities (52) 83 (321) (1,957) (694) (1,035) (1,360) (1,479) Cash From Financing Activities Payment of deferred VAT liabilities under state government schemes - 18 3 (3) - - - - Cash Dividends Paid (1,090) (2,950) (1,890) (1,928) (1,928) (1,928) (1,928) (1,928) Interest on lease liabilities - (9) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Interest on bank overdraft (4) (2) (9) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) Prinicipal payment of lease liabilities - (52) (60) (78) (82) (86) (90) (95) Other Financing Cash Flow Items (224) (606) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Cash Generated From Financing Activities (1,317) (3,602) (1,956) (2,019) (2,019) (2,023) (2,028) (2,032) Foreign Exchange Effects - - - - - - - - Net Change in Cash 683 (1,223) 177 (1,704) 984 190 209 229 Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalent 2,841 3,524 2,301 2,478 773 1,858 2,046 2,253 Closing Cash Cash and Cash Equivalent 3,524 2,301 2,478 773 1,858 2,046 2,253 2,480 Actuals Estimates
  7. Ratio Analysis Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A Sparklines Trend Liquidity Ratios 2018 2019 2020 2021 Current Ratio (X) Current Assets/Current Liabilities 2.55 1.74 1.68 1.05 Quick Ratio (X) Quick Aseets/Current Liabilities 2.03 1.16 1.11 0.45 Debt to Equity (x) Long term Debt/Shareholders Equity Fund 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 Interest Coverage Ratios (X) EBIT/Interest 22.7 21.71 20.39 18.45 Efficiency/Activity Ratios Asset Turnover Ratio (%) Total Sales /Total Assets 139.61 172.43 1.77 1.83 Inventory Turnover Ratio (X) COGS/Average Inventory 11.7 9.64 4.11 4.11 Profitability Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) EBITDA/Sales*100 25.47 25.65 25.07 25.23 EBIT Margin (%) EBIT/Sales*100 22.5 22.65 22.29 22.58 EBT Margin (%) EBT/Sales*100 21.5 21.61 21.06 19.6 Net Profit Margin (%) EAT/Sales*100 14.23 15.91 15.59 14.58 Return on Networth / Equity (%) PAT/Equity shareholder Funds*100 45.3 70.5 104.5 105.8 Return on Capital Employed (%) PAT/Capital Employed*100 40.76 56.25 55.05 59.24 Return on Assets (%) PAT/Total Assets*100 19.86 27.44 26.36 26.12 Basic EPS (Rs.) Profit available for ESH /No. of Equity share 166.67 204.28 215.98 222.46 Diluted EPS (Rs.) (PAT after diluted adjustment/ Diluted Shares 166.67 204.28 215.98 222.46 Cash EPS (Rs.) Operating Cash Flow / Equity Shares Outstanding 201.47 242.54 254.39 262.92 Book Value / Share (Rs.) Book Value of Assets /No. of Equity share 381.01 199.01 209.43 216.19 Dividend / Share (Rs.) Divident Paid /No. of Equity share 115 342 200 200 Dividend Payout Ratio (%) DPS/EPS*100 68% 150% 91% 90% Earnings Retention Ratio (%) RPS/EPS*100 32% -50% 9% 10% Earnings Yield EPS/MPS*100 2% 1% 1% 1% Valuation Ratios P/E Ratio MPS/EPS 66.51 72.38 85.15 88.58 Enterprise Value (Cr.) MV of (Equity Shares + Preferred Shares + Debt) + Minority Interest – Cash and Equivalents 105521 141350 175604 189328 EV/Net Operating Revenue (X) 9.34 11.43 13.15 12.87 EV/EBITDA (X) 36.68 44.55 52.46 51.01 MarketCap/Net Operating Revenue (X) 9.48 11.53 13.28 12.92 Price/BV (X) 29.15 74.32 87.82 91.16 Price/Net Operating Revenue 9.48 11.53 13.28 12.92
  8. Risk Free Rate 7.30% Government security 5.74% GS 2026 Market Return (Nifty) 13.37% Average of last 4 years Nifty Returns Market Risk Premium 6.07% Beta 0.26 Information available on Internet Cost of Equity (Ke) 8.9% Cost of Debt (kd) 0% Interest free, Payment of deferred VAT liabilities under state government schemes WACC 8.7% Average of last 4 years of Debt/Equity ratio weightage Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A Equity Shareholders Funds 3,674 1,919 2,019 2,084 Long Term Borrowing Debt 35 53 32 27 Total 3,709 1,972 2,051 2,112 % of Equity (We) 99% 97% 98% 99% % of Debt (Wd) 1% 3% 2% 1% Calculation of Weightage Average Cost of Capital WACC = Ke* We + Kd* Wd
  9. Discounted Cash Flow Amount (in Rs Crores) Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Cash Flow From Operating Activities 2,052 2,295 2,454 2,271 3,697 3,248 3,596 3,739 Capital Expenditure (166) (155) (478) (735) (464) (695) (766) (843) Free Cash Flow to Firm (UFCF) 1,886 2,141 1,976 1,537 3,233 2,553 2,831 2,896 Discount Factor @8.7% 0.92 0.85 0.78 0.72 Discounted Cash Flow (A) 2,974 2,161 2,204 2,075 1,30,633 2,62,588 2,62,588 Discounted Terminal Value (B) 1,88,091 Total Present Value of Firm , C = A+B 1,97,505 Discounted Cash Flow Market Capitalisation Enterprise Value (EV/EBITDA) Assumptions Discount Rate as per WACC 8.7% Perputual Growth Rate 7% EV/EBITDA Multiple 51 Value of Firm 1,97,505 1,89,993 1,89,328 Terminal Value Actuals Estimates Terminal Value By Perputal Growth Calculation By EV/EVITDA Multiple
  10. Case 1 Best 1 Best Case 2 Base Best Base Case 3 Worse Worse Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Notes to information Revenue From Operations 11292 12369 13350 14709 16932 19491 22437 25828 Y-O-Y- Growth % 13% 9.5% 7.9% 10.2% 15% 15% 15% 15% Best 15% 15% 15% 15% Base Case + 5% Base 10% 10% 10% 10% Last 4 years Average of revenue growth Worst 5% 5% 5% 5% Base Case -5% Other Income 259 247 146 120 117 115 112 110 Y-O-Y- Growth % 46% -4.6% -40.9% -17.8% -2% -2% -2% -2% Best -2% -2% -2% -2% Base Case + 2% Base -4% -4% -4% -4% Last 4 years Average of % of Revenue Worst -6% -9% -9% -9% Base Case -2% Manufacturing Expenses 344 341 314 409 802 923 1062 1223 % of Revenue 3% 3% 2% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% Best 5% 5% 5% 5% Base Case + 2% Base 3% 3% 3% 3% Last 4 years Avergage of % of Revenue Worst 1% 1% 1% 1% Base Case -2% Material Consumed 4,644 5,277 5,729 6,381 9413 13887 20486 30221 % of Revenue 41% 43% 43% 43% 48% 48% 48% 48% Best 48% 48% 48% 48% Base Case + 2% Base 43% 43% 43% 43% Last 4 years Avergage of % of Revenue Worst 38% 38% 38% 38% Base Case -2% Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Notes to information Employee Benefit Expenses 1,124 1,258 1,501 1,521 1756 2026 2339 2700 Selected Case Scenerio Analysis
  11. % of Revenue 10% 10% 11% 10% 15% 15% 15% 15% Best 15% 15% 15% 15% Base Case + 5% Base 10% 10% 10% 10% Last 4 years Avergage of % of Revenue Worst 5% 5% 5% 5% Base Case -5% Selling Expenses 729 785 764 764 848 940 1043 1157 % of Revenue 6% 6% 6% 5% 11% 11% 11% 11% Best 11% 11% 11% 11% Base Case + 2% Base 6% 6% 6% 6% Last 4 years Average of % of Revenue Worst 1% 1% 1% 1% Base Case -2% Administrative Expenses 1,833 1,782 1,841 2,042 2381 2775 3235 3772 % of Revenue 16% 14% 14% 14% 17% 17% 17% 17% Best 17% 17% 17% 17% Base Case + 2% Base 15% 15% 15% 15% Last 4 years Average of % of Revenue Worst 13% 13% 13% 13% Base Case -2% Depreciation and Amortisation 336 370 370 390 437 480 529 581 % of Fixed Assets 10% 10% 10% 10% 12% 10% 10% 10% Best 12% 12% 12% 12% Base Case + 2% Base 10% 10% 10% 10% Last 4 years Average of % of Revenue Worst 8% 8% 8% 8% Base Case -2% Interest 112 129 164 201 221 239 258 279 Interest % of Lease liability 8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 8% 8% Best 10% 10% 10% 10% Base Case + 2% Base 8% 8% 8% 8% Last 4 years Average of % of Revenue Worst 6% 6% 6% 6% Base Case -2%
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