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ASSOCHAM
14 November, 2006
Hotel Le-Meridien, New Delhi
4th
& 5th
Floors, Astral Heights, Road No. 1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad-500034, India
Tel: +91-40-23430203-05, Fax: +91-40-23430201, E-mail: info@cygnusindia.com
Website: www.cygnusindia.com
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 2
2
CONTENTS
1. INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET – AT A GLANCE........................................... 3
1.1 Market size...................................................................................................................... 3
1.2 Major segments............................................................................................................... 3
1.3 Industry trend.................................................................................................................. 4
1.4 Outlook ........................................................................................................................... 4
2. INDIA’S GLOBAL COMPETITIVE STRATEGY ............................................................. 5
2.1 Emergence as the preferred manufacturing base ............................................................ 5
2.2 Establishing global presence through acquisitions ......................................................... 5
2.3 New patent regime attracting investments ...................................................................... 6
3. POLICY & PRICING FRAMEWORK ................................................................................ 7
3.1 Draft drug policy 2006.................................................................................................... 7
3.2 Pricing scenario............................................................................................................... 7
4. INDUSTRY PARTNERSHIP & ALLIANCES ................................................................... 9
4.1 Major M&A deals by Indian pharma companies............................................................ 9
4.2 Out-licensing & in-licensing deals.................................................................................. 9
5. CRAMS AND CLINICAL TRIALS................................................................................... 11
5.1 CRAMS market scenario ...............................................................................................11
5.2 Recent CRAMS agreements ..........................................................................................11
5.3 Clinical trials..................................................................................................................12
5.4 Advantages offered by India in CRAMS and Clinical trials domain.............................12
6. DRUG DISCOVERY & DEVELOPMENT....................................................................... 14
6.1 Shifting R&D investment model....................................................................................14
6.2 Increasing R&D spend of Indian companies .................................................................14
6.3 Establishment of R&D centres by MNCs in India.........................................................15
7. DATA EXCLUSIVITY ISSUES........................................................................................ 16
8. FUTURE OUTLOOK......................................................................................................... 17
8.1 Pharma industry .............................................................................................................17
8.2 CRAMS and Clinical trials ............................................................................................17
8.3 Future trends ..................................................................................................................17
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 3
3
1. Indian pharmaceutical market – At a glance
1.1 Market size
Indian pharmaceutical
market has grown by 9.5%
to reach USD5.13 billion in
2005. It accounts for about
1% of the global
pharmaceutical market in
value terms and 8% in
volume terms. The
pharmaceutical market has
grown at a compounded
annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 9.7% during the last five
years.
Market growth during 2005 was primarily driven by a number of new product
launches by both Indian and foreign companies. The Indian market started to attract a
number of foreign players, with the implementation of product patents in January
2005. The FDI in pharma industry was USD172 million in 2005-06, growing at a
CAGR of 62.6% during the period 2002-06.
1.2 Major segments
Anti-infective is estimated
to be the major therapeutic
segment accounting for
14.7% of the total pharma
market in India. The major
sub-segments within this
category are
Cephalosporins,
Quinolones, Penicillin and
Macrolides.
Cardiovascular drugs are
the next major therapeutic
segment contributing 11.1%
of the total sales. The major
sub-segments under this
category include anti-hypertensives, statins and anticoagulants. Gastrointestinal and
respiratory are the next leading therapeutic segments accounting for 10.7% and 10.5%
in 2005-06.
Indian pharmaceutical market
(2001-2005)
3.55
4.39 4.69
5.13
4.15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
USDbn
Market size (LHS)
Source: Cygnus Research
Source: Cygnus Research
Therapeutic segmentation - 2005
Gastro
Intestinal
10.70%
CVS
11.10%
Others
13.80%
Respiratory
10.50%
Analgesics
9.60%
Vitamins /
Food
supplements
9.20%
Anti Diabetics
4.60%
Gynaecology
5.00%
CNS
5.40%
Dermatology
5.40%
Anti-infectives
14.70%
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 4
4
1.3 Industry trend
Indian Pharma companies are on a global acquisition spree, specially gaining importance
in the global generics market
The industry is witnessing significant growth in the Contract Research and Manufacturing
Services (CRAMS) domain
Indian companies de-risk their R&D by out-licensing their NCEs or spin off their R&D
unit into a separate entity
Indian companies are raising funds through FCCB, ADR to finance their overseas
acquisitions
The draft Drug Policy 2006 intends to bring additional 354 drugs under price control
The strengthening IPR scenario in India drives MNCs to:
- Launch their patent protected drugs in India
- Invest in increasing their R&D presence in India
1.4 Outlook
The Indian pharmaceutical market is expected to register a growth of 11% in 2006 to
reach USD5.7 billion and expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.6% during the next five
years.
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 5
5
2. India’s global competitive strategy
Indian pharmaceutical industry is expanding its presence across the globe through a
lot of mergers and acquisitions and today, India is one of the most preferred
manufacturing bases for the multinational companies. India is positioned
competitively in the following areas.
2.1 Emergence as the preferred manufacturing base
With strong chemistry skills, and high skilled manpower at cheaper cost, India is in a
position to manufacture at a very low cost compared to pharma companies in the
Western countries. This has triggered Western pharma companies to outsource their
manufacturing activities to India. Other main factors that drive the Western
companies to prefer India include –
2.1.1 Highest number of US FDA approved plants outside US
India currently has the highest number of
US FDA (Food and Drug Administration)
approved plants (outside US) at 75,
followed by Italy with 55, and China with
27. Industry estimates put that, Indian
pharma companies have invested a
combined capital expenditure of USD1
billion between FY2003 and 2005, a
majority of which is in USFDA approved
assets.
2.1.2 Increasing number of regulatory filings
Indian pharma companies are increasing the number of regulatory filings such as
DMF and ANDA as these enable them to manufacture and market drugs in the
regulated market such as the US and Europe. The total number of DMF (Drug Master
File) filings in USFDA made by Indian companies has increased from 62 in 2001 to
265 in 2005, growing at a CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) of 44% during
this period. Indian DMF filings accounted for 37% of the total DMF filings made with
USFDA in 2005. Similarly, Indian companies account for a significant amount of
ANDA (Abbreviated New Drug Application) filings made every year.
2.1.3 Special Economic Zones (SEZ) to boost manufacturing
The new SEZ Act supports the export oriented approach of the Indian pharma
industry as it offers tax incentives and other benefits for firms that manufacture
products primarily for exports. Around 15 pharma SEZs have received approval from
the SEZ board. The SEZ concept is aiding the Indian pharma industry to place itself
competitively in the global arena.
2.2 Establishing global presence through acquisitions
Number of USFDA approved plants - 2006
75
55
27
India
Italy
China
Source: Cygnus Research
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 6
6
Mergers and acquisitions are considered to be one of the main strategies by the Indian
pharma firms for increasing their global presence, for expanding their product
portfolio and acquiring new customers. The major acquisitions made by Indian
pharma firms in the recent past include – Dr. Reddy’s acquisition of Betapharm
(Germany) for USD574 million and Ranbaxy’s acquisition of Terapia (Romania) for
USD324 million.
2.3 New patent regime attracting investments
With the implementation of product patent regime in India on January 2005, MNCs
are investing in launching new products in the Indian market and on setting up
manufacturing facilities and R&D centres in India. For instance, Israel's Teva is
developing an R&D centre at Noida near Delhi. Ferring Pharmaceuticals, a 100%
subsidiary of Dutch major Ferring BV, is setting up a manufacturing unit in Mumbai
for producing specialty proteins and hormones; Germany's Hexal AG is setting up a
formulation plant in Bangalore.
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 7
7
3. Policy & Pricing Framework
3.1 Draft drug policy 2006
Draft Drug Policy, 2006
Area Policy
National Drug Authority would be constituted
Drug Regulatory System Several of the existing provisions of the Drugs and Cosmetics Act, 1940 would
be amended
Proper training to be imparted to the personnel
The number of patent examiners to be further increased
Full computerization would be undertaken
Electronic filing of patent applications to be introduced
Intellectual Property Rights
including Data Protection
An IP Cell to be set up in the Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals
An early decision on data protection
National Toxicology Centre to be made fully compliant with GLP norms
Tax benefits available to R&D to be made applicable for Clinical trials too
Clinical trial samples being imported into India to be exempted from payment of
import duty
Clinical Trials and Drug
Development
Exemption from service tax for a period of 10 years upto 2015
Anti-Cancer and Anti-
HIV/AIDS Drugs
Public-Private Partnership Programme
Drugs for Other Life
Threatening Diseases
All such drugs to be identified and brought under the public -private partnership
model
Patented Drugs
The patented drugs (formulations under product patent ) that are launched in
India after 1st January, 2005 would be subjected to mandatory price negotiations
before granting them marketing approval
Excise duty relief
Excise duty is now levied on 60% of the MRP as compared to the ex-factory
price earlier
Maximum Retail Price (MRP)
Concept of MRP inclusive of taxes would be made applicable to medicines sold
in the packaged form
New Drug Price Control Order
A new Drug Price Control Order (DPCO) replacing the existing DPCO, 1995,
would be issued under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955.
Bulk purchases by Government Lower prices for bulk purchases by Government
Public procurement and distribution of drugs would preferably be for generic
drugs
Quality certification would be provided free of cost to generic drug
manufacturers
Promotion of Generic Drugs
No control on prices of generic drugs
Control on Pharmaceutical
brands
No change should be permitted in the composition of a given brand
Strengthening of Pharma PSUs A Pharma Development Fund would be created to help the pharma PSUs
Health Cess A health cess of 2% for funding Schemes for the poor
Orphaned Drugs
Development of Orphaned Drugs by providing efforts made to further develop
and launch several orphaned drugs in the market.
Source: Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals, Govt. of India, compiled by Cygnus Research
3.2 Pricing scenario
3.2.1 Current
Currently 74 bulk drugs and the associated formulations are under price
control. The prices are fixed and revised by the National Pharmaceutical
Pricing Authority (NPPA).
MRP, Inclusive of All Taxes, regime introduced since October 2, 2006.
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 8
8
The price of formulations in India is fixed on the basis of the following
formula on which a 4% value added tax (VAT) is imposed-
MRP = Ex-factory Cost + 100% MAPE on Ex-factory Cost + ED + VAT + Other tax (If any)
MRP = Maximum Retail Price, MAPE = Maximum Allowable Post-manufacturing Expense
(100%), ED = Excise Duty (16%) – With an abatement of 40% on MRP, VAT = Value Added
Tax (4%)
3.2.2 Future
The formulae proposed for fixing equitable prices for bulk drugs and their
formulations, include cost plus margins model, negotiated prices, differential
prices, reference prices, and bulk purchase prices.
The MAPE have been increased to 150% from 100%, with an extra 50% for
products of R&D intensive companies.
Imported drugs would be allowed 50% margin on the landed costs.
To avoid a sudden spurt in prices of the current list of 74 drugs under price
control their MAPE will remain unchanged for one year.
New patented drugs would be exempted from price control for 10 years post
commercialization.
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 9
9
4. Industry partnership & alliances
Indian pharma companies are eying for mergers and acquisitions in expanding their
geographical reach, and for product extensions. Similarly, they are looking out for
alliances, especially in the research and development domain to de-risk their research
activities and use the expertise of large companies. Indian companies are also
partnering with overseas companies to launch their products in India.
4.1 Major M&A deals by Indian pharma companies
In India, pharma is one of the dynamic industries with lot of mergers and acquisitions
on the roll. The recent high value acquisition was Dr. Reddy’s acquisition of
Betapharm, the second largest generics company in Germany for USD574 million.
The acquisition has given way to Dr.Reddy’s to establish a strong presence in
Germany and access Betapharm’s product portfolio. The other major acquisitions
during 2005-06 are listed in the table below.
Major acquisitions by Indian companies - 2005-06
Acquirer Target
Value USD
million
Date
Generics
Dr. Reddy's Betapharm (Germany) 574 Feb-06
Ranbaxy Terapia (Romania) 324 Mar-06
Ranbaxy Ethimed NV (Spain) - Mar-06
Ranbaxy Allen Spa (Italy) - Mar-06
Aurobindo Milpharma (UK) 13 Feb-06
Jubilant Organosys Target Research Associates (US) 34 Oct-05
Branded formulation
Sun Pharma Able Laboratories (US) 24 Dec-05
Valeant Pharma (2 facilities) (Hungary, US) 10 Aug-05
Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API)
Dr. Reddy's Roche's API Business (Mexico) 59 Nov-05
Matrix Docpharma (Belgium) 263 Jun-05
CRAMS
Jubilant Organosys Trinity Laboratories (US) 20 Jul-05
Dishman Solutia’s Pharma services (US) 75 May-06
Nicholas Piramal Avecia Pharma (UK) 17 Oct-05
Source: Cygnus Research
4.2 Out-licensing & in-licensing deals
In order to reduce the risk in new drug development, Indian pharma companies out-
license their molecules under development to large companies which have enough
financial strength to support their research activities and a strong marketing arm.
Some of the major out-licensing deals made by the Indian companies include –
Major out-licensing deals by Indian companies
Company Licensed to Molecule Indication
Dr Reddy’s Novo Nordisk DRF 2593 Diabetes
Novo Nordisk DRF 2725 Diabetes
Ranbaxy Bayer Cipro XR NDDS
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 10
10
Schwarz RBx 2258 BPH
Torrent Novartis Age Breaker Diabetes
Glenmark Forest (For North America) GRC 3886 Asthma/ COPD
Tejin (For Japan) GRC 3886 Asthma/ COPD
Source: Citigroup Research
Indian companies also enter into in-licensing of products or technology from other
companies. Some of the in-licensing deals made by Indian companies in the recent
past include –
Ranbaxy’s in-licensing agreements
o With Janssen-Ortho Inc for marketing 2 products in the Canadian
market
o Invagen Pharmaceuticals Inc for anti-epileptic drug zonisamide in the
US market
o Eurodrug Laboratories for Doxophylline in the Indian market
Nicholas Piramal’s in-licensing agreement
o With Ethypharm, France, for licensing of technology for Paracetamol
flash tablets
Lupin’s agreement
o With ItalFarmaco's Enoxaparin Sodium Injection for marketing in
India.
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 11
11
5. CRAMS and Clinical trials
5.1 CRAMS market scenario
Over the last few years, the pharmaceutical industry has seen large companies use
‘downsizing’ strategies more and concentrating their resources on core skills. As
industry margins come under increasing pressure, companies could begin the
outsourcing aspects of their development, manufacturing or marketing processes so as
to concentrate on their core specialties.
In 2005, CRAMS market in
India was valued at
USD532.10 million, of
which contract
manufacturing accounted
for 84% of the total market,
while the remaining 16%
was accounted by contract research (excluding clinical trials). Both the segments of
CRAMS have registered a robust growth rate of over 40% in 2005 over the previous
year.
5.2 Recent CRAMS agreements
Indian companies are proving better at developing APIs than their competitors from
target markets and that too with non-infringing processes. Indian drugs are either
entering into strategic alliances with large generic companies in the world of off-
patent molecules or entering into contract manufacturing agreements with innovator
companies for supplying complex under-patent molecules.
Major CRAMS agreement by Indian companies
Indian
Company
Outsourcing partner Outsourcing
value
(USD million)
Outsourcing Type
Nicholas Piramal AMO, Allergan etc. 45
Contract manufacturing for API and
formulations
Cadila Altana, Zyban 35
JV structure for manufacturing on
patent drugs
Shasun Eli Lilly, GSK, Novartis 30 Contract manufacturing for API
Dishman Solvay, GSK etc. 25
Contract manufacturing for intermediates
and API
Jubilant Novartis 25
Contract manufacturing for intermediates
and API
Matrix GSK 20 Contract manufacturing for API
Divi’s Three of top 10 pharma 15 Custom chemical synthesis
Strides Mayne 15 Injectibles Manufacturing
Ipca Astra Zeneca, Europe 15
Contract generics manufacturing
of APIs
Source: Complied by Cygnus Research
Segment
Contract
Research*
Contract
Manufacturing
Indian Market (2005) USD 87.1 million USD 445 million
Growth rate over previous
year
45% 48%
Source: Cygnus Research, *excluding clinical trials
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 12
12
5.3 Clinical trials
In 2005, the industry for
clinical trials in India was
USD100 million. This market
is growing at an accelerated
pace. India offers a lot of
advantages in the clinical trials
domain such as cost advantage
compared to Western
countries. For instance, the average cost of conducting a Phase I trial in the US is
USD20 million, while it costs only USD10 million in India.
5.4 Advantages offered by India in CRAMS and Clinical trials
domain
5.4.1 Cost saving
Today, the cost of hiring a medicinal chemist in the US is very high, approximately
USD250,000-300,000 per year. The US pharma industry employs roughly 50,000
chemists. According to industry sources, Indian discovery research outfits charge
global pharma companies around USD60,000 per chemist which is roughly one-fifth
of what the pharma companies pay abroad. And while it is difficult to pin down an
average pay for chemists in India for doing a similar work, conservative estimates
suggest it to be around Rs1 million per annum (USD20,000). Beside, the Indian
company is also reimbursed the costs of all consumables. So, it is a win-win situation-
the overseas pharma saves about 50% cost and the Indian company makes it about
50% margin.
5.4.2 Improved skills to face international competition
The future in this space belongs to the one who will not only grab the opportunity
with both hands, but also play the game well. Like the IT and the software wave, and
the earlier generic pharma wave, Indian discovery services companies have the
opportunity to make it to the global scheme of things. Time will tell which of the
niche players will consolidate to become fully integrated discovery companies and
which of the Indian companies, if any, will become global players. Indian scientists
are exposed to the outsourcing environments, improved confidence to face
international challenges. This directly attracts international players to the Indian
market.
5.4.3 Already existing strong manufacturing base
India’s manufacturing clout has become a massive threat to the Western generic
firms. The freedom to manufacture generic versions of patent protected drugs using
non-infringing processes has also given them a head start in developing new methods
of production and getting them to the market very rapidly.
Cost of clinical trials in US vis-à-vis in India
Study
Average US cost
(USD million)
Indian Cost
Phase 1 20
50% less than the average
cost in US
Phase 50
60% less than the average
cost in US
Phase III 100
60% less than the average
cost in US
Source: Taken from Pharmabiz
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 13
13
5.4.4 Strong marketing and distribution network
Many of the Indian mid sized pharmaceutical companies have extensive marketing
and distribution network facilitating the business of contract research and
manufacturing services.
5.4.5 Rich biodiversity
The huge patient population offers vast genetic diversity, making the country an ideal
site for clinical trials.The advantages offered by India over the Western countries are
listed in the table below.
Advantages offered by India in clinical trials
Western Countries India
Patients with urban lifestyle diseases High Very High
Patients with tropical diseases Low Very High
Speed for recruiting patients Low-Medium Very High
Speed for conducting a trial Medium High
Return rate of patients Medium Very High
Pool of qualified personnel Very High High
Heterogeneous population mix High High
Adherence to ICH quality guidelines High High
Availability of technology to streamline trials Medium High
Source: IBEF
Number of pharmaceutical companies has successfully used clinical trial data
generated from India for US FDA New Drug Application
US FDA New Drug Application data generated from India
Drug Company Molecules Researched
Alcon Vegamox
AstraZeneca Merenem
Cangene Hepatitis B Vaccine
Eli Lilly
Alimta
Gemcitabine (breast cancer)
Cialis (erectile dysfunction)
Xygris (Septicemia)
Glaxo Lamictal
Jannsen Resperidal
Novartis Tegaserod
Pfizer Voriconazole
Roche Peg-Interferon
Santen Quixin
Wyeth Influenza A Vaccine
Source: Pharmabiz
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 14
14
6. Drug discovery & development
With the implementation of product patents in India in January 2005, investing in
R&D became inevitable for the Indian pharma companies, to compete globally and
survive in the long run. The benefits reaped by a few companies such as Ranbaxy and
Dr Reddy’s in the R&D field have attracted others to follow. Most of the Indian
pharmaceutical companies including Cipla, Lupin, Wockhardt, Nicholas Piramal and
Torrent are actively involved in R&D activities.
6.1 Shifting R&D investment model
The model of R&D investment by Indian companies is shifting from core process
research to new drug development and novel drug delivery systems (NDDS). For
instance, Ranbaxy has out-licensed its NDDS to Bayer for the development of Cipro
XR formulation.
6.2 Increasing R&D spend of Indian companies
The major pharmaceutical
companies in India are the main
R&D investors of the industry. The
R&D spend (capital and current) of
these major companies has grown
at CAGR of 38% during the period
2000-01 to 2005-06. In 2005-06,
the R&D expenditure of 50 major
companies totalled USD495.19
million growing at a rate of 26%
over the previous year. The higher
growth rate is attributed to product
patent implementation in the
country in January 2005.
Process research NDDS NCE
Process
research
NDDS NCE
Process
research
NDDS NCE
Before patent protection implementation
After patent protection implementation - Expected
Model of R&D investment by Indian pharma companies
Source: Cygnus Research
R&D spend by major Pharmaceutical
companies in India
97.77
175.30
280.01
392.37
495.19
130.51
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
USDm
Source: Cygnus Research
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 15
15
6.3 Establishment of R&D centres by MNCs in India
The escalating R&D cost in the Western countries has driven the pharma companies
in those countries to look out for destinations where R&D activities can be done at a
low cost. Western firms are establishing their R&D centres in India to reap the
benefits offered by the sub-continent such as rich talent pool, which is available at
low cost compared to the Western countries. For instance, the Canada-based Apotex
Corporation and US-based Sigma Aldrich are setting up an R&D centre in Bangalore;
Israel's Teva is developing an R&D centre at Noida near Delhi.
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 16
16
7. Data exclusivity issues
Data exclusivity (DE) provides protection to an innovator’s tests and clinical
trial data for a certain period of time
This data cannot be relied upon by another company to seek marketing
authorisation of the same drug
The time duration for DE varies with countries
o Five years in USA,
o Six years in China and
o Upto ten years in EU members.
Current TRIPs (Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights)
regulations do not include data exclusivity clauses
Hence India is not obligated to add this new clause to their Drugs and
Cosmetics Act
Pharmaceutical companies suggest that more product introductions, R&D and
clinical trial businesses will come to India only if DE norms are in place
But there are apprehensions that DE implementation in the country might lead
to monopoly in the drug industry and in turn harm the accessibility and
affordability of drugs.
White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry
Quest for Global Leadership
© Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 17
17
8. Future Outlook
8.1 Pharma industry
The Indian pharmaceutical
market is projected to grow by
11% in 2006 to reach USD5.70
billion. The market is expected
to grow at a CAGR of 13.6%
during the period 2006 to 2010
and reach a market size of
USD9.48 billion. The growth of
the market is expected to be
largely driven by new product
launches, especially new
branded drugs by foreign firms and the growth rate is expected to reach its peak by
2009, after which it is expected to stagnate with fewer new product launches.
8.2 CRAMS and Clinical trials
Industry estimates put that the clinical trials market in India will be USD200 million
by 2007 and USD1 billion by 2010. The contract manufacturing market is expected to
reach USD900 million by 2010 with the growth primarily driven by increasing
number of USFDA plants in the country and rise in DMF and ANDA filings by
Indian pharmaceutical companies.
8.3 Future trends
Some of the major trends that are expected in the future include – mergers and
acquisitions in the industry; new product launches by MNCs and Indian companies;
in-licensing of patented products by Indian companies to launch them in the Indian
market and increase in the number of contract research organizations. The industry
will also face stricter regulatory norms in order to maintain its competitiveness in the
global space.
Projections for Indian pharmaceutical market
5.70
7.31
8.33
9.48
6.41
0
2
4
6
8
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USDbn
Source: Cygnus Research

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ASSOCHAM_White_paper_091106

  • 1. ASSOCHAM 14 November, 2006 Hotel Le-Meridien, New Delhi 4th & 5th Floors, Astral Heights, Road No. 1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad-500034, India Tel: +91-40-23430203-05, Fax: +91-40-23430201, E-mail: info@cygnusindia.com Website: www.cygnusindia.com
  • 2. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 2 2 CONTENTS 1. INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET – AT A GLANCE........................................... 3 1.1 Market size...................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Major segments............................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Industry trend.................................................................................................................. 4 1.4 Outlook ........................................................................................................................... 4 2. INDIA’S GLOBAL COMPETITIVE STRATEGY ............................................................. 5 2.1 Emergence as the preferred manufacturing base ............................................................ 5 2.2 Establishing global presence through acquisitions ......................................................... 5 2.3 New patent regime attracting investments ...................................................................... 6 3. POLICY & PRICING FRAMEWORK ................................................................................ 7 3.1 Draft drug policy 2006.................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Pricing scenario............................................................................................................... 7 4. INDUSTRY PARTNERSHIP & ALLIANCES ................................................................... 9 4.1 Major M&A deals by Indian pharma companies............................................................ 9 4.2 Out-licensing & in-licensing deals.................................................................................. 9 5. CRAMS AND CLINICAL TRIALS................................................................................... 11 5.1 CRAMS market scenario ...............................................................................................11 5.2 Recent CRAMS agreements ..........................................................................................11 5.3 Clinical trials..................................................................................................................12 5.4 Advantages offered by India in CRAMS and Clinical trials domain.............................12 6. DRUG DISCOVERY & DEVELOPMENT....................................................................... 14 6.1 Shifting R&D investment model....................................................................................14 6.2 Increasing R&D spend of Indian companies .................................................................14 6.3 Establishment of R&D centres by MNCs in India.........................................................15 7. DATA EXCLUSIVITY ISSUES........................................................................................ 16 8. FUTURE OUTLOOK......................................................................................................... 17 8.1 Pharma industry .............................................................................................................17 8.2 CRAMS and Clinical trials ............................................................................................17 8.3 Future trends ..................................................................................................................17
  • 3. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 3 3 1. Indian pharmaceutical market – At a glance 1.1 Market size Indian pharmaceutical market has grown by 9.5% to reach USD5.13 billion in 2005. It accounts for about 1% of the global pharmaceutical market in value terms and 8% in volume terms. The pharmaceutical market has grown at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% during the last five years. Market growth during 2005 was primarily driven by a number of new product launches by both Indian and foreign companies. The Indian market started to attract a number of foreign players, with the implementation of product patents in January 2005. The FDI in pharma industry was USD172 million in 2005-06, growing at a CAGR of 62.6% during the period 2002-06. 1.2 Major segments Anti-infective is estimated to be the major therapeutic segment accounting for 14.7% of the total pharma market in India. The major sub-segments within this category are Cephalosporins, Quinolones, Penicillin and Macrolides. Cardiovascular drugs are the next major therapeutic segment contributing 11.1% of the total sales. The major sub-segments under this category include anti-hypertensives, statins and anticoagulants. Gastrointestinal and respiratory are the next leading therapeutic segments accounting for 10.7% and 10.5% in 2005-06. Indian pharmaceutical market (2001-2005) 3.55 4.39 4.69 5.13 4.15 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 USDbn Market size (LHS) Source: Cygnus Research Source: Cygnus Research Therapeutic segmentation - 2005 Gastro Intestinal 10.70% CVS 11.10% Others 13.80% Respiratory 10.50% Analgesics 9.60% Vitamins / Food supplements 9.20% Anti Diabetics 4.60% Gynaecology 5.00% CNS 5.40% Dermatology 5.40% Anti-infectives 14.70%
  • 4. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 4 4 1.3 Industry trend Indian Pharma companies are on a global acquisition spree, specially gaining importance in the global generics market The industry is witnessing significant growth in the Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) domain Indian companies de-risk their R&D by out-licensing their NCEs or spin off their R&D unit into a separate entity Indian companies are raising funds through FCCB, ADR to finance their overseas acquisitions The draft Drug Policy 2006 intends to bring additional 354 drugs under price control The strengthening IPR scenario in India drives MNCs to: - Launch their patent protected drugs in India - Invest in increasing their R&D presence in India 1.4 Outlook The Indian pharmaceutical market is expected to register a growth of 11% in 2006 to reach USD5.7 billion and expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.6% during the next five years.
  • 5. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 5 5 2. India’s global competitive strategy Indian pharmaceutical industry is expanding its presence across the globe through a lot of mergers and acquisitions and today, India is one of the most preferred manufacturing bases for the multinational companies. India is positioned competitively in the following areas. 2.1 Emergence as the preferred manufacturing base With strong chemistry skills, and high skilled manpower at cheaper cost, India is in a position to manufacture at a very low cost compared to pharma companies in the Western countries. This has triggered Western pharma companies to outsource their manufacturing activities to India. Other main factors that drive the Western companies to prefer India include – 2.1.1 Highest number of US FDA approved plants outside US India currently has the highest number of US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) approved plants (outside US) at 75, followed by Italy with 55, and China with 27. Industry estimates put that, Indian pharma companies have invested a combined capital expenditure of USD1 billion between FY2003 and 2005, a majority of which is in USFDA approved assets. 2.1.2 Increasing number of regulatory filings Indian pharma companies are increasing the number of regulatory filings such as DMF and ANDA as these enable them to manufacture and market drugs in the regulated market such as the US and Europe. The total number of DMF (Drug Master File) filings in USFDA made by Indian companies has increased from 62 in 2001 to 265 in 2005, growing at a CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) of 44% during this period. Indian DMF filings accounted for 37% of the total DMF filings made with USFDA in 2005. Similarly, Indian companies account for a significant amount of ANDA (Abbreviated New Drug Application) filings made every year. 2.1.3 Special Economic Zones (SEZ) to boost manufacturing The new SEZ Act supports the export oriented approach of the Indian pharma industry as it offers tax incentives and other benefits for firms that manufacture products primarily for exports. Around 15 pharma SEZs have received approval from the SEZ board. The SEZ concept is aiding the Indian pharma industry to place itself competitively in the global arena. 2.2 Establishing global presence through acquisitions Number of USFDA approved plants - 2006 75 55 27 India Italy China Source: Cygnus Research
  • 6. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 6 6 Mergers and acquisitions are considered to be one of the main strategies by the Indian pharma firms for increasing their global presence, for expanding their product portfolio and acquiring new customers. The major acquisitions made by Indian pharma firms in the recent past include – Dr. Reddy’s acquisition of Betapharm (Germany) for USD574 million and Ranbaxy’s acquisition of Terapia (Romania) for USD324 million. 2.3 New patent regime attracting investments With the implementation of product patent regime in India on January 2005, MNCs are investing in launching new products in the Indian market and on setting up manufacturing facilities and R&D centres in India. For instance, Israel's Teva is developing an R&D centre at Noida near Delhi. Ferring Pharmaceuticals, a 100% subsidiary of Dutch major Ferring BV, is setting up a manufacturing unit in Mumbai for producing specialty proteins and hormones; Germany's Hexal AG is setting up a formulation plant in Bangalore.
  • 7. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 7 7 3. Policy & Pricing Framework 3.1 Draft drug policy 2006 Draft Drug Policy, 2006 Area Policy National Drug Authority would be constituted Drug Regulatory System Several of the existing provisions of the Drugs and Cosmetics Act, 1940 would be amended Proper training to be imparted to the personnel The number of patent examiners to be further increased Full computerization would be undertaken Electronic filing of patent applications to be introduced Intellectual Property Rights including Data Protection An IP Cell to be set up in the Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals An early decision on data protection National Toxicology Centre to be made fully compliant with GLP norms Tax benefits available to R&D to be made applicable for Clinical trials too Clinical trial samples being imported into India to be exempted from payment of import duty Clinical Trials and Drug Development Exemption from service tax for a period of 10 years upto 2015 Anti-Cancer and Anti- HIV/AIDS Drugs Public-Private Partnership Programme Drugs for Other Life Threatening Diseases All such drugs to be identified and brought under the public -private partnership model Patented Drugs The patented drugs (formulations under product patent ) that are launched in India after 1st January, 2005 would be subjected to mandatory price negotiations before granting them marketing approval Excise duty relief Excise duty is now levied on 60% of the MRP as compared to the ex-factory price earlier Maximum Retail Price (MRP) Concept of MRP inclusive of taxes would be made applicable to medicines sold in the packaged form New Drug Price Control Order A new Drug Price Control Order (DPCO) replacing the existing DPCO, 1995, would be issued under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. Bulk purchases by Government Lower prices for bulk purchases by Government Public procurement and distribution of drugs would preferably be for generic drugs Quality certification would be provided free of cost to generic drug manufacturers Promotion of Generic Drugs No control on prices of generic drugs Control on Pharmaceutical brands No change should be permitted in the composition of a given brand Strengthening of Pharma PSUs A Pharma Development Fund would be created to help the pharma PSUs Health Cess A health cess of 2% for funding Schemes for the poor Orphaned Drugs Development of Orphaned Drugs by providing efforts made to further develop and launch several orphaned drugs in the market. Source: Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals, Govt. of India, compiled by Cygnus Research 3.2 Pricing scenario 3.2.1 Current Currently 74 bulk drugs and the associated formulations are under price control. The prices are fixed and revised by the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA). MRP, Inclusive of All Taxes, regime introduced since October 2, 2006.
  • 8. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 8 8 The price of formulations in India is fixed on the basis of the following formula on which a 4% value added tax (VAT) is imposed- MRP = Ex-factory Cost + 100% MAPE on Ex-factory Cost + ED + VAT + Other tax (If any) MRP = Maximum Retail Price, MAPE = Maximum Allowable Post-manufacturing Expense (100%), ED = Excise Duty (16%) – With an abatement of 40% on MRP, VAT = Value Added Tax (4%) 3.2.2 Future The formulae proposed for fixing equitable prices for bulk drugs and their formulations, include cost plus margins model, negotiated prices, differential prices, reference prices, and bulk purchase prices. The MAPE have been increased to 150% from 100%, with an extra 50% for products of R&D intensive companies. Imported drugs would be allowed 50% margin on the landed costs. To avoid a sudden spurt in prices of the current list of 74 drugs under price control their MAPE will remain unchanged for one year. New patented drugs would be exempted from price control for 10 years post commercialization.
  • 9. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 9 9 4. Industry partnership & alliances Indian pharma companies are eying for mergers and acquisitions in expanding their geographical reach, and for product extensions. Similarly, they are looking out for alliances, especially in the research and development domain to de-risk their research activities and use the expertise of large companies. Indian companies are also partnering with overseas companies to launch their products in India. 4.1 Major M&A deals by Indian pharma companies In India, pharma is one of the dynamic industries with lot of mergers and acquisitions on the roll. The recent high value acquisition was Dr. Reddy’s acquisition of Betapharm, the second largest generics company in Germany for USD574 million. The acquisition has given way to Dr.Reddy’s to establish a strong presence in Germany and access Betapharm’s product portfolio. The other major acquisitions during 2005-06 are listed in the table below. Major acquisitions by Indian companies - 2005-06 Acquirer Target Value USD million Date Generics Dr. Reddy's Betapharm (Germany) 574 Feb-06 Ranbaxy Terapia (Romania) 324 Mar-06 Ranbaxy Ethimed NV (Spain) - Mar-06 Ranbaxy Allen Spa (Italy) - Mar-06 Aurobindo Milpharma (UK) 13 Feb-06 Jubilant Organosys Target Research Associates (US) 34 Oct-05 Branded formulation Sun Pharma Able Laboratories (US) 24 Dec-05 Valeant Pharma (2 facilities) (Hungary, US) 10 Aug-05 Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) Dr. Reddy's Roche's API Business (Mexico) 59 Nov-05 Matrix Docpharma (Belgium) 263 Jun-05 CRAMS Jubilant Organosys Trinity Laboratories (US) 20 Jul-05 Dishman Solutia’s Pharma services (US) 75 May-06 Nicholas Piramal Avecia Pharma (UK) 17 Oct-05 Source: Cygnus Research 4.2 Out-licensing & in-licensing deals In order to reduce the risk in new drug development, Indian pharma companies out- license their molecules under development to large companies which have enough financial strength to support their research activities and a strong marketing arm. Some of the major out-licensing deals made by the Indian companies include – Major out-licensing deals by Indian companies Company Licensed to Molecule Indication Dr Reddy’s Novo Nordisk DRF 2593 Diabetes Novo Nordisk DRF 2725 Diabetes Ranbaxy Bayer Cipro XR NDDS
  • 10. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 10 10 Schwarz RBx 2258 BPH Torrent Novartis Age Breaker Diabetes Glenmark Forest (For North America) GRC 3886 Asthma/ COPD Tejin (For Japan) GRC 3886 Asthma/ COPD Source: Citigroup Research Indian companies also enter into in-licensing of products or technology from other companies. Some of the in-licensing deals made by Indian companies in the recent past include – Ranbaxy’s in-licensing agreements o With Janssen-Ortho Inc for marketing 2 products in the Canadian market o Invagen Pharmaceuticals Inc for anti-epileptic drug zonisamide in the US market o Eurodrug Laboratories for Doxophylline in the Indian market Nicholas Piramal’s in-licensing agreement o With Ethypharm, France, for licensing of technology for Paracetamol flash tablets Lupin’s agreement o With ItalFarmaco's Enoxaparin Sodium Injection for marketing in India.
  • 11. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 11 11 5. CRAMS and Clinical trials 5.1 CRAMS market scenario Over the last few years, the pharmaceutical industry has seen large companies use ‘downsizing’ strategies more and concentrating their resources on core skills. As industry margins come under increasing pressure, companies could begin the outsourcing aspects of their development, manufacturing or marketing processes so as to concentrate on their core specialties. In 2005, CRAMS market in India was valued at USD532.10 million, of which contract manufacturing accounted for 84% of the total market, while the remaining 16% was accounted by contract research (excluding clinical trials). Both the segments of CRAMS have registered a robust growth rate of over 40% in 2005 over the previous year. 5.2 Recent CRAMS agreements Indian companies are proving better at developing APIs than their competitors from target markets and that too with non-infringing processes. Indian drugs are either entering into strategic alliances with large generic companies in the world of off- patent molecules or entering into contract manufacturing agreements with innovator companies for supplying complex under-patent molecules. Major CRAMS agreement by Indian companies Indian Company Outsourcing partner Outsourcing value (USD million) Outsourcing Type Nicholas Piramal AMO, Allergan etc. 45 Contract manufacturing for API and formulations Cadila Altana, Zyban 35 JV structure for manufacturing on patent drugs Shasun Eli Lilly, GSK, Novartis 30 Contract manufacturing for API Dishman Solvay, GSK etc. 25 Contract manufacturing for intermediates and API Jubilant Novartis 25 Contract manufacturing for intermediates and API Matrix GSK 20 Contract manufacturing for API Divi’s Three of top 10 pharma 15 Custom chemical synthesis Strides Mayne 15 Injectibles Manufacturing Ipca Astra Zeneca, Europe 15 Contract generics manufacturing of APIs Source: Complied by Cygnus Research Segment Contract Research* Contract Manufacturing Indian Market (2005) USD 87.1 million USD 445 million Growth rate over previous year 45% 48% Source: Cygnus Research, *excluding clinical trials
  • 12. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 12 12 5.3 Clinical trials In 2005, the industry for clinical trials in India was USD100 million. This market is growing at an accelerated pace. India offers a lot of advantages in the clinical trials domain such as cost advantage compared to Western countries. For instance, the average cost of conducting a Phase I trial in the US is USD20 million, while it costs only USD10 million in India. 5.4 Advantages offered by India in CRAMS and Clinical trials domain 5.4.1 Cost saving Today, the cost of hiring a medicinal chemist in the US is very high, approximately USD250,000-300,000 per year. The US pharma industry employs roughly 50,000 chemists. According to industry sources, Indian discovery research outfits charge global pharma companies around USD60,000 per chemist which is roughly one-fifth of what the pharma companies pay abroad. And while it is difficult to pin down an average pay for chemists in India for doing a similar work, conservative estimates suggest it to be around Rs1 million per annum (USD20,000). Beside, the Indian company is also reimbursed the costs of all consumables. So, it is a win-win situation- the overseas pharma saves about 50% cost and the Indian company makes it about 50% margin. 5.4.2 Improved skills to face international competition The future in this space belongs to the one who will not only grab the opportunity with both hands, but also play the game well. Like the IT and the software wave, and the earlier generic pharma wave, Indian discovery services companies have the opportunity to make it to the global scheme of things. Time will tell which of the niche players will consolidate to become fully integrated discovery companies and which of the Indian companies, if any, will become global players. Indian scientists are exposed to the outsourcing environments, improved confidence to face international challenges. This directly attracts international players to the Indian market. 5.4.3 Already existing strong manufacturing base India’s manufacturing clout has become a massive threat to the Western generic firms. The freedom to manufacture generic versions of patent protected drugs using non-infringing processes has also given them a head start in developing new methods of production and getting them to the market very rapidly. Cost of clinical trials in US vis-à-vis in India Study Average US cost (USD million) Indian Cost Phase 1 20 50% less than the average cost in US Phase 50 60% less than the average cost in US Phase III 100 60% less than the average cost in US Source: Taken from Pharmabiz
  • 13. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 13 13 5.4.4 Strong marketing and distribution network Many of the Indian mid sized pharmaceutical companies have extensive marketing and distribution network facilitating the business of contract research and manufacturing services. 5.4.5 Rich biodiversity The huge patient population offers vast genetic diversity, making the country an ideal site for clinical trials.The advantages offered by India over the Western countries are listed in the table below. Advantages offered by India in clinical trials Western Countries India Patients with urban lifestyle diseases High Very High Patients with tropical diseases Low Very High Speed for recruiting patients Low-Medium Very High Speed for conducting a trial Medium High Return rate of patients Medium Very High Pool of qualified personnel Very High High Heterogeneous population mix High High Adherence to ICH quality guidelines High High Availability of technology to streamline trials Medium High Source: IBEF Number of pharmaceutical companies has successfully used clinical trial data generated from India for US FDA New Drug Application US FDA New Drug Application data generated from India Drug Company Molecules Researched Alcon Vegamox AstraZeneca Merenem Cangene Hepatitis B Vaccine Eli Lilly Alimta Gemcitabine (breast cancer) Cialis (erectile dysfunction) Xygris (Septicemia) Glaxo Lamictal Jannsen Resperidal Novartis Tegaserod Pfizer Voriconazole Roche Peg-Interferon Santen Quixin Wyeth Influenza A Vaccine Source: Pharmabiz
  • 14. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 14 14 6. Drug discovery & development With the implementation of product patents in India in January 2005, investing in R&D became inevitable for the Indian pharma companies, to compete globally and survive in the long run. The benefits reaped by a few companies such as Ranbaxy and Dr Reddy’s in the R&D field have attracted others to follow. Most of the Indian pharmaceutical companies including Cipla, Lupin, Wockhardt, Nicholas Piramal and Torrent are actively involved in R&D activities. 6.1 Shifting R&D investment model The model of R&D investment by Indian companies is shifting from core process research to new drug development and novel drug delivery systems (NDDS). For instance, Ranbaxy has out-licensed its NDDS to Bayer for the development of Cipro XR formulation. 6.2 Increasing R&D spend of Indian companies The major pharmaceutical companies in India are the main R&D investors of the industry. The R&D spend (capital and current) of these major companies has grown at CAGR of 38% during the period 2000-01 to 2005-06. In 2005-06, the R&D expenditure of 50 major companies totalled USD495.19 million growing at a rate of 26% over the previous year. The higher growth rate is attributed to product patent implementation in the country in January 2005. Process research NDDS NCE Process research NDDS NCE Process research NDDS NCE Before patent protection implementation After patent protection implementation - Expected Model of R&D investment by Indian pharma companies Source: Cygnus Research R&D spend by major Pharmaceutical companies in India 97.77 175.30 280.01 392.37 495.19 130.51 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 USDm Source: Cygnus Research
  • 15. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 15 15 6.3 Establishment of R&D centres by MNCs in India The escalating R&D cost in the Western countries has driven the pharma companies in those countries to look out for destinations where R&D activities can be done at a low cost. Western firms are establishing their R&D centres in India to reap the benefits offered by the sub-continent such as rich talent pool, which is available at low cost compared to the Western countries. For instance, the Canada-based Apotex Corporation and US-based Sigma Aldrich are setting up an R&D centre in Bangalore; Israel's Teva is developing an R&D centre at Noida near Delhi.
  • 16. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 16 16 7. Data exclusivity issues Data exclusivity (DE) provides protection to an innovator’s tests and clinical trial data for a certain period of time This data cannot be relied upon by another company to seek marketing authorisation of the same drug The time duration for DE varies with countries o Five years in USA, o Six years in China and o Upto ten years in EU members. Current TRIPs (Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights) regulations do not include data exclusivity clauses Hence India is not obligated to add this new clause to their Drugs and Cosmetics Act Pharmaceutical companies suggest that more product introductions, R&D and clinical trial businesses will come to India only if DE norms are in place But there are apprehensions that DE implementation in the country might lead to monopoly in the drug industry and in turn harm the accessibility and affordability of drugs.
  • 17. White Paper on Indian Pharma Industry Quest for Global Leadership © Cygnus Business Consulting & Research 2006 17 17 8. Future Outlook 8.1 Pharma industry The Indian pharmaceutical market is projected to grow by 11% in 2006 to reach USD5.70 billion. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.6% during the period 2006 to 2010 and reach a market size of USD9.48 billion. The growth of the market is expected to be largely driven by new product launches, especially new branded drugs by foreign firms and the growth rate is expected to reach its peak by 2009, after which it is expected to stagnate with fewer new product launches. 8.2 CRAMS and Clinical trials Industry estimates put that the clinical trials market in India will be USD200 million by 2007 and USD1 billion by 2010. The contract manufacturing market is expected to reach USD900 million by 2010 with the growth primarily driven by increasing number of USFDA plants in the country and rise in DMF and ANDA filings by Indian pharmaceutical companies. 8.3 Future trends Some of the major trends that are expected in the future include – mergers and acquisitions in the industry; new product launches by MNCs and Indian companies; in-licensing of patented products by Indian companies to launch them in the Indian market and increase in the number of contract research organizations. The industry will also face stricter regulatory norms in order to maintain its competitiveness in the global space. Projections for Indian pharmaceutical market 5.70 7.31 8.33 9.48 6.41 0 2 4 6 8 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 USDbn Source: Cygnus Research