A range of possible outcomes and influencing factors for the presidency of Donald J. Trump

1. Possible scenarios for the
Trump Presidency
By David Silverberg
President
Silverberg Independent Media
© 2017 David Silverberg

2. About these scenarios
What follows is an attempt to rationally think through
scenarios that might result from the presidency of Donald J.
Trump. It has been done in as objective, non-partisan and
analytic a manner as possible. It attempts to cover a range of
possibilities based on current events and historical precedent.
Assessment of probabilities is subjective and the author’s own
analysis.
This presentation was first developed for a non-partisan seminar
looking ahead at the congressional elections of 2018 and the issues
that candidates might face.

3. Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds
Fills full term in office, fully
enacts program
Likelihood: Low
• No change in behavior or governing
– Instability
– Infighting
– Unpredictability
• Maintains continuous campaign
• Beats media into submission
– Discredits independent media and
critical reporting
• Expands base of hardcore
supporters
Wins second term

4. Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds
Domestic
• Mass deportation of migrants
• Immigration discouraged/closed
• Speculative financial boom
• Across-the-board deregulation
• Higher consumer prices, fewer goods
• Trade protectionism
• Fossil-based energy sources
• Continued climate change
• Increase in low-wage manufacturing jobs in mid-country
• Affordable Care Act abolished
Consequences:

5. Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds
International
• Border wall built
• US and Russia divide world into spheres of
influence
• NATO dissolved
• US international isolation except for Russian
alliance
• Trade protectionism
Consequences:

6. Scenario 2: Trump blocked
Serves out term, program
hindered
Likelihood: Medium
• No change in behavior or
governing
• Congress, judiciary, media,
public provide checks and
balances
• Parts of program enacted,
many initiatives blocked
• Base of support remains static
or declines
Second term uncertain,
possible 2018 loss in
Congress

7. Scenario 2: Trump blocked
Consequences
– Divided government
– Political gridlock
– Little legislation, governance through Executive
Orders
– No ACA replacement
– Nearly all presidential initiatives challenged in court
– International uncertainty
– Constant domestic dissent

8. Scenario 3:
Removed from office
Likelihood: Medium
• Impeachment
– Possible causes:
» Emoluments Clause
» High crimes and
misdemeanors
• Invocation of 25th
Amendment to Constitution
– VP and majority of Cabinet
declare him unable to fulfill
duties, ratified by Congress
• Physical inability to perform
duties

9. Scenario 4:Trump removes
himself
Likelihood: Low
• Resignation
– Trump concludes he cannot
continue in office
• Exile or defection
– Trump chooses to leave the
United States
• Suicide
– Cornered and/or defeated,
Trump concludes he cannot
continue living
» Precedents: Nero; Hitler;
John Milton, governor of
Florida 1861-1865,
committed suicide on
learning of the fall of
Richmond, Va.

10. Wildcards
Terrorist attack
• Likelihood: High
– Terrorist attack prompts
national crackdown, suspension
of civil liberties
– Small, localized incident is
exaggerated into national threat
– President declares national
emergency and assumes
emergency powers
Precedent: Reichstag fire, 1933

11. Wildcards
War
Likelihood: High
– War breaks out with foreign
power
– President attempts to rally
support
– Nation mobilizes
– President attempts
suppression of popular dissent
– Wartime censorship of press

12. Wildcards
Financial Crash /
Panic
• Likelihood: High
– Speculative bubble bursts
– Credit locks up
– Government does not act
– No confidence in
presidential leadership
Consequence: Major
depression

13. Wildcards
Military coup, uprising
• Likelihood: Low
– US military takes over
government
• Possible catalysts:
– Refusal to use deadly force
against civilians
– Refusal of presidential orders
to start war or use nuclear
weapons
– Refusal of presidential orders
to commit crimes against
humanity
– Wholesale firing of Joint
Chiefs or top military officers

14. Wildcards
Dictatorship
• Likelihood: Medium
– Civil liberties
suspended
– Congress dismissed
– Rule by decree
– Press freedom
suppressed, censorship
imposed
– Constitution, Bill of
Rights suspended

15. Parting Thoughts
“…the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that
they who live under its protection should demean themselves as good citizens in giving it on all occasions their effectual
support.”
--George Washington
“Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
-- Benjamin Franklin
“A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.”
-- Declaration of Independence