The pivotal market in UK GRC services. Safety Technology is a frenetic, hotly contested market. Great at innovation, highly fragmented, globally competitive, the market delivers strong financial metrics, but it is also chock full of elephant traps, reinvented wheels, myths and false prophets. The devil as always is in the detail. NED's rigorous economic analysis maps the market fully, tracks performance from 1995 to date and projects its potential to 2025.
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CONTENTS
Here’s your real inside track on #Safetytech.
VCs get this by lunching a handful of entrepreneurs.
Pros and regulators get this through tough due diligence.
So make sure you know more
than the guys on the other side of the table
before they even sit down.
Item Page
Sharetakers, Caretakers and Undertakers 6
The UK market is beating global growth
estimates. It’s not growing at the 4.3% the
global product comparison sites predict – try
6.47%; and over 10% pa in the hot spot!
The Stories That Make the Market (Relative Market Share Trends Per Company) 9
Every company, from global enterprise fully
spec’d systems to the best new App, is profiled.
From 1995 to 2025. Their market share
profile is mapped. Among the 49 companies
analysed in detail here are you a sharetaker?
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Market Structure 33
Why so small? Globally it’s supposed to be
billions, and the sum of the turnover from all
the UK players is £138, 263, 91 (and 14p)?
Why is that? Which sectors grow best?
Financial Fundamentals 34
We’re at the end of the 3rd growth cycle and
the beginning of the 4th. Will it hurt like the
last? Why is nobody else talking about intra-
industry competition? It’s the single biggest
inhibitor in this sector. Find out why.
Headline Benchmark Summary 39
What does beating the market really mean? By
how much? The market is (finally) entering
early maturity – what does that mean?
The Sectors and Their Potential 41
Which sectors are the toughest, the easiest, or
have the most potential? Do reference clients
among global firms mean you’ve arrived? Is the
SME sector untapped? Are you one of the ones
paddling hard up a fast-flowing river?
The Market Map 44
NED’s unique market map visualises the
corporate finance ‘character’ of every player in
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the market. Can you pin the tail on the donkeys
on the blind map? This is the real corporate
finance ‘quadrant’ that matters.
Competitive Intensity 45
What impact does the number of players, the
number and cost of new entrants and the
relative size of existing players have on your
company’s value? Do buyer’s care? You bet. You
do what you do ‘cos you love it. They do
homework.
Leaders and Growers 47
Fastest, biggest, top lists usually are usually
just someone blowing smoke. Here’s the listing
you don’t have to buy a dinner jacket or fill a
dining table for. The real scoreboard is kept at
Companies House – it’s just hard to find.
The Global Client Sector 50
Challengers are those growing fastest, and
here they are not the same as the largest
incumbent ‘leaders’. Just why is sustaining
leadership here so hard?
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The Blue Chip and Listed Company Sector 51
Why is this market sector declining 1.2%pa in
relative terms? Why are suppliers to these
companies not leading the pack, and
handsomely? Be careful what you ask for.
The Major Company and Public Sector Clients 52
Since the Great Recession, public sector clients
have been seen as dangerous, demanding,
unreliable, slow and problematic. Time for a
rethink? This is the largest growth sector,
but maybe once bitten?
The LME Large and Medium Company Sector 53
There are hidden gems of opportunity here. Why
is this? Winners here now need to
play it smart, though. The secret’s out.
The SME Sector 54
The untapped potential here is a myth. There
are no green fields. This is full of lion’s, tigers,
bears, and that’s just the dry land – there are
sharks and killer whales too. Think Jurassic
Park on speed.
Market Entry 56
The fact is, this is one of the easiest GRC
markets to set up your own business in. It’s
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why a queue of over 50 overseas teams are
making organic as well as acquisitive plays.
The Key Questions Answered 60
Most GRC markets are recession resistant.
Most GRC markets are hard to enter. Most
GRC markets can charge a premium. This
market deals with each of these differently; so
your strategy has to too.
Strategic Imperatives 61
Country Risk 61
Why go for sales overseas when the job is far
from done right here?
For some it’s a ‘must’,
for many it’s a costly distraction.
Why This Market Is Attractive 62
Is there a #XXXTech bubble in play? Have we
missed it? What does ‘strategic premium’
mean? What lessons from ‘impairment reviews’
should buyers take to heart.
Software versus Services 62
What is the interplay with consulting services?
Lessons 63
What are the 5 key things you need to focus on
when you’re up at 3am in the morning?
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Tactical Issues 67
Sure, don’t forget about SaaS, DLT, Cloud and
AI, but you don’t need us to tell you that, do
you? Really?
M&A Issues 68
If you have one foot in a bucket of boiling
water and one in a bucket of ice, on average
you’re fine, right? Multiples here run from x4.8
to x30.2; what’s your number? The drivers are
scale and growth; always have been.
Deal Metrics 70
At what profit levels do real deals kick in? Are
you tired of VCs fishing without hooks? Do you
know what multiples apply at different cash
flow bandings? Deal pricing is an art, and you
get the full palette here right here.
The Sweet Spot 72
Normally bigger cashflows mean bigger
multiples, but there is a sector in this market
where that isn’t always the case. When do
consolidators face the real challenge?
Are we there yet?
Empathy and Credibility 74
Yep, fake these and you’ve got it made. But
here are six key insights in the practicalities of
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deal-making and the things to look out for.
Buyers do this often; sellers do it once usually.
Level the playing field here.
The VC Business Model 75
The stuff they don’t want you to know. They
won’t offer it unless you ask, and you have to
know about it to ask for it. Anchors and ‘tuck-
ins’; sweet equity and leverage…
Get the upper hand.
M&A Jargon 77
Recent Developments 80
Examples of safety tech coverage from NED
Intelligence reports recently.
How Safety Tech M&A is Moving 81
M&A and Shenanigans in the Safety Market 84
Divestments, Food Safety and Software 85
Heat Map 87
Figure 1: The Stages of Market Growth 1995 to Date and to 2025 36
Figure 2: Market (net) New Sales and Profitability 37
Figure 3: Spend by Sector in the UK 42
Figure 4: Sector Shares Linear Long Term Trends 43
Figure 5: The Market Map 46
Figure 6: Market Leaders 47
Figure 7: Market Top Growers 48
Figure 8: Market and Sector Share Leaders and Share Takers 49
Figure 9: Launch Development Profiles 57
Figure 10: New Entrant Sales From Inception 58
Figure 11: New Entrant Profits From inception 59
Figure 12: M&A Benchmarks 69
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‘Sharetakers, caretakers and
undertakers…
This is a noisy market right now. When we first looked at it over 20 years ago, it was a
niche within a niche and dominated by ‘part-timers’ from business process automation
who could deliver ‘good-enough’ systems quickly. Few stayed the course, however, and a
handful lost their shirt when they tried to scale up to the global pitches. Then we looked
again some 7-8 years ago, and we were surprised at how small it was as a sector
compared to the other compliance technology sectors. Legal software is a half a billion
play, HR and payroll more. Was safety really a c£130m UK niche? If so, why?
Now the hype is stronger than ever, and the need for facts more pressing than ever. The
issues in this market are all about the hidden pressures. Yes, the enterprise software
fraternity can still knock you up a competent system on a bespoke basis. The main
business consultancies can and do offer a similar service for global firms seeking to do the
multi-million-pound equivalent too, while the BPM teams keep looking into this niche and
making a stab. More importantly now, however, the safety consultancies have pitched in
across the board. The testing and inspection teams have also ‘rolled over in their sleep’
with some big investments to make investors think they are awake and have a future.
What is clear is that life in the ‘independent’ GRC or HSE software safety specialist sector
is tough and getting tougher. There may be some overseas green fields, but they are few
and far between. Expectations are especially confounded in the global and listed
company client markets.
We make no apology for this not being a product ranking service. There are good ones
aplenty out there, and they do what they do well. Sure, there are some big challenges
ahead. Big Data and AI have a role to come increasingly; SaaS rumbles on; DLT
(distributed ledger technology/Bitcoin) will come knocking when the #fintech teams ease
up a tad.
Seed and early-stage investors will find good pickings here. Anyone unable to cope with
fragmented markets will run a mile. Ironically that is one of this market’s greatest
advantages. There is no ‘herd mentality’ here, but rather a strong group of rugged
individualists. It matters, as they deliver excellent customer service, unpredictable,
creative innovation, and an ability to punch way beyond their weight.
We make no apology either for disagreeing with those in market research elsewhere who
categorise this and related markets in global billions. Our supply-side analysis is unique
(among independent as opposed to in-house researchers at any rate). We can (and do)
point to which companies we see as doing well enough to explain the projections. We are
not making assumptions about global spend, rather the ability of each and every
company to exploit, generate, or capture it. We don’t guess the aim of each listed
company player; we measure the race to the ‘puck’. Our analyses are rigorous, and we
stand by the fact that the growth rate we see is considerably higher going forward than
that predicted by others.
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This is why we start with the market stories – the granular narrative, if you will. Sure the
M&A benchmarks are great fun over the ‘free’ lunch or the golf course chat, but the
market share profiles for each player are the real driver here. A cynic in academia once
told me: ‘there are only three types of company – sharetakers, caretakers and
undertakers. You can make a bundle out of each of them. But you’d better not run a
sharetaker position with an undertaker top team, and vice-versa’.
Overall the market is choppy; one of the most frenetic we track, and also financially one
of the most volatile. We advise caution in strategic investments here. Shirts have been
lost with depressing regularity. But there are gems, and they know who they are.
Be careful out there.
David R Johnston LLB MBA
CEO NED Legal
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Safety Technology
Commercial Due Diligence
Corporate Finance Facts
Market Maps
1995-2025
Rankings
Market Shares
Market Entry Costs
M&A Benchmarks and Enterprise Values
Order Your Copy Today: Email dj@nedlegal.co.uk
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