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Focus in market
leadership
– without bias
Recognize
change
and adjust
Be prepared
to play defense
A tactical approach…
D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
3
N Y S E E q u i t y B r e a d t h 1 9 9 8 – F e b 2 0 1 6
Source: Dorsey Wright & Associates
4
N Y S E S h o r t I n t e r e s t 2 0 0 7 – C u r r e n t
5
A A I I % B u l l i s h S e n t i me n t 1 9 8 7 – J a n 1 4 , 2 0 1 6
6
Gl o b a l E q u i t y B r e a d t h – C u r r e n t
Source: Dorsey Wright
7
Canadian Equity (S&P/TSX)Bullish % Canadian Equity (S&P/TSX)
Source: Dorsey Wright & Associates, Sept 12 2016
Canadian Equity Breadth and Index
8
S&P500 consolidating above rising MA!
9
TSX near 52 week highs
10
NASDAQ consolidating above rising MA
11
SPX correlations near lows
12
Economically Sensitive outperforming
13
14
Strong Sectors - Improving Breadth
15
Transports Rising Relative Strength
16
Financials Rising Relative Strength
17
Semis - Basic building blocks leading
18
DRAM (memory) prices rising!
19
Metals prices rising
20
Weak Sectors – Narrowing Breadth
21
22
Defensives Weakening - Utilities
23
Defensives weakening - Telecom
24
Defensives weakening - Reits
25
Defensives weakening - Staples
26
Funds have elevated Cash Positions!
27
28
Equity Exposure at Multi -Year Lows
29
Profit Taking – Yet no market weakness!
30
Smart Money Buying, Private Clients Selling!
31
Investment grade spreads - improving
32
Bank credit default swaps (CDS) -
benign
33
Treasury Curve - Steepening
34
35
36
37
TSX Most Recent High – Sept 2014!
38
E q u i t i e s Off e r B e s t R i s k P r e mi u m
Source: Cornerstone Macro
39
Relative Value
Global PMI's
With Developed (DM) and Emerging (EM) Market Subindexes
M740 OCT 2016
55 55
54 54
53 53
52 52
51 51
50 50
49 49
48 48
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Global
DM
EM
52.0
52.8
51.0
Global Economic Surprise Factor
Citi
55% G10 surprise plus 45% Emerging Market surpriseD142 2 NOV 16
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
-30 -30
-40 -40
2013 2014 2015 2016
6.4
42
43
44
45
46
47
Barometer Equity Pool – 3 Years
Industry Allocations as at October 31, 2016
Barometer Equity Pool
17.3%
13.2%
8.2%
5.4%
4.5%
3.7%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.2%
2.1%
1.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Information Technology - Semiconductors
Information Technology - Internet Software & Services
Consumer Staples - Packaged Foods & Meats
Materials - Diversified Metals & Mining
Utilities - Renewable Electricity
Information Technology - Application Software
Consumer Discretionary - Leisure Products
Financials - Investment Banking & Brokerage
Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Information Technology - IT Consulting & Other Services
Materials - Copper
Industrials - Airlines
Industrials - Environmental & Facilities Services
Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Direct Marketing Retail
Consumer Staples - Food Retail
Industrials - Research & Consulting Services
Information Technology - Systems Software
Materials - Gold
Consumer Discretionary - General Merchandise Stores
Consumer Discretionary - Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Cash
Materials - Construction Materials
Consumer Discretionary - Homefurnishing Retail
Energy - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Information Technology - Communications Equipment
Sector Allocation
Information Technology 31.0%
Energy 21.1%
Consumer Discretionary 11.4%
Materials 11.0%
Industrials 8.5%
Consumer Staples 8.1%
Utilities 3.7%
Financials 3.1%
Cash 2.1%
Geographic Allocation
Canada
61%
U.S.
33%
Asia
3%
Europe
3%
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are
not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short
positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s
annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca.
Barometer Equity Pool
Holdings as at October 31, 2016
31.0% Information Technology
CA;KXS Kinaxis Inc
CA;SHOP Shopify Inc
US;ADBE Adobe Systems Inc
US;AVGO Broadcom Ltd
US;FB Facebook Inc
US;GOOG Alphabet Inc
US;LDOS Leidos Holdings Inc
US;NVDA NVIDIA Corp
US;NXPI NXP Semiconductors NV
US;TXN Texas Instruments Inc
21.1% Energy
CA;ARX ARC Resources Ltd
CA;CR Crew Energy Inc
CA;ECA Encana Corp
CA;NVA NuVista Energy Ltd
CA;PKI Parkland Fuel Corp
CA;VII Seven Generations Energy Ltd
CA;WCP Whitecap Resources Inc
US;PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Co
11.4% Consumer Discretionary
CA;ATZ Aritzia Inc
CA;DOL Dollarama Inc
CA;TOY Spin Master Corp
US;PCLN Priceline Group Inc
11.0% Materials
CA;FM First Quantum Minerals Ltd
CA;KDX Klondex Mines Ltd
CA;TCK.B Teck Resources Ltd
US;FRTA Forterra Inc
8.5% Industrials
CA;AC Air Canada
CA;WCN Waste Connections Inc
US;INFO IHS Markit Ltd
8.1% Consumer Staples
CA;ATD.B Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc
CA;MFI Maple Leaf Foods Inc
CA;SAP Saputo Inc
3.7% Utilities
CA;PIF Polaris Infrastructure Inc
3.1% Financials
US;MS Morgan Stanley
2.1% Cash and Cash Equivalents
0.0% Index Hedge
Barometer Equity Pool
51
Barometer Global Macro Pool – 3 Years
Industry Allocations as at October 31, 2016
Barometer Global Macro Pool
Geographic Allocation
30.8%
18.1%
13.0%
11.0%
10.4%
9.9%
8.8%
8.1%
5.9%
5.4%
5.2%
3.9%
2.8%
1.5%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-1.5%
-1.9%
-4.1%
-4.9%
-6.2%
-13.6%
U.S. Information Technology Sector
U.S. Financials Sector
Emerging Markets - Asia
U.S. Large Cap
U.S. Industrials Sector
U.S. Small Cap
U.S. Energy Sector
U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector
Emerging Markets - LATAM
Commodities
Emerging Markets
U.S. Materials Sector
U.S. Health Care Sector
Developed Markets - Asia
U.S. Consumer Staples Sector
Volatility
Gold
Currency - Japanese Yen
U.S. Utilities Sector
Fixed Income - Aggregate/Other
Currency - US Dollar
Fixed Income - U.S. Government
U.S.
76%
Asia
13%
Lat Am
6%
E.M.
5%
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are
not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short
positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s
annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca.
Barometer Global Macro Pool
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are
not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short
positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s
annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca.
Holdings as at October 31, 2016
30.8% U.S. Information Technology Sector
US;IGM iShares North American Tech ETF
US;IGV iShares North American Tech-Software ETF
US;PNQI PowerShares Nasdaq Internet ETF
US;PSCT PowerShares S&P SmallCap Info TechETF
US;SKYY First Trust ISE Cloud Computing Index Fund
US;SOCL Global X Social Media Index ETF
US;SOXX iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF
US;XSD SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF
18.1% U.S. Financials Sector
US;IAI iShares US Broker Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
US;KBE SPDR S&P Bank ETF
US;KIE SPDR S&P Insurance ETF
US;KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
13.0% Emerging Markets - Asia
US;EIDO iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF
US;EWT iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF
US;GXC SPDR S&P China ETF
US;SCIF VanEck Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF
11.0% U.S. Large Cap
US;QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF
US;SPHB Powershares S&P 500 High Beta Portfolio
US;SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
10.4% U.S. Industrials Sector
US;ITA iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF
US;IYJ iShares US Industrials ETF
US;XTN SPDR S&P Transportation ETF Trust
9.9% U.S. Small Cap
US;IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
US;IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF
US;IJT iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF
8.8% U.S. Energy Sector
US;FRAK VanEck Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF
US;XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
8.1% U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector
US;FDN First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund
US;PEJ PowerShares Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment ETF
5.9% Emerging Markets - LATAM
US;EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF
5.4% Commodities
US;SGG Barclays Bank iPath Bloomberg Sugar ETN
US;UNG United States Natural Gas ETF
5.2% Emerging Markets
US;EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
3.9% U.S. Materials Sector
US;SLX VanEck Vectors Steel ETF
US;XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
2.8% U.S. Health Care Sector
US;IHI iShares US Medical Devices ETF
1.5% Commodities
US;DXJ WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF
-1.2% U.S. Consumer Staples Sector
-1.4% Volatility
-1.5% Gold
-1.9% Currency - Japanese Yen
-4.1% U.S. Utilities Sector
-4.9% Fixed Income - Aggregate/Other
-6.2% Currency - US Dollar
-13.6% Fixed Income - U.S. Government
0.0% Cash and Cash Equivalents
0.0% Index Hedge
54
Barometer Balanced Pool – 3 Years
Industry Allocations as at October 31, 2016
Barometer Tactical Balanced Pool
20.3%
11.9%
6.3%
5.5%
4.8%
4.6%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.3%
Corporate Bond
Financials - Diversified Banks
Cash
Energy - Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Information Technology - Semiconductors
Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Information Technology - Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Utilities - Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Consumer Discretionary - Specialized Consumer Services
Consumer Staples - Packaged Foods & Meats
Information Technology - Internet Software & Services
Industrials - Aerospace & Defense
Utilities - Renewable Electricity
Information Technology - Systems Software
Real Estate - Residential REIT's
Financials - Reinsurance
Financials - Life & Health Insurance
Consumer Staples - Brewers
Convertible Bond
Financials - Financial Exchanges & Data
Consumer Discretionary - Cable & Satellite
Industrials - Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks
Materials - Metal & Glass Containers
Consumer Discretionary - Homefurnishing Retail
Sector Allocation
Corporate Bond 20.3%
Financials 18.7%
Information Technology 13.4%
Energy 13.2%
Cash 6.3%
Consumer Discretionary 6.2%
Utilities 5.6%
Consumer Staples 5.2%
Industrials 4.7%
Real Estate 2.5%
Convertible Bond 2.0%
Materials 1.9%
Asset Allocation Geographic Allocation
Equities
72%
Corp
Bond
20%
Cash
6%
Conv
Bond
2%
Canada
57%
U.S.
43%
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are
not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short
positions.
The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s annual
financial report
for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca.
Barometer Tactical Balanced Pool
Holdings as at October 31, 2016
20.3% Corporate Bond
Bond DHX Media 5.875% 2DEC21
Bond Great Canadian Gaming 6.625% 25JUL22
Bond Great-West Life 5.691% 21JUN67
Bond Parkland Fuel 6% 21NOV22
Bond Penske Automotive 2.95% 12JUN20
Bond GFL Environmental 9.875% 1FEB21 USD
Bond OpenText 5.625% 15JAN23 USD
Bond TD Northgroup 6.378% 29JAN49 USD
18.7% Financials
CA;BNS_PH Bank of Nova Scotia – Preferred
CA;TD Toronto-Dominion Bank
CA;TD_PFH Toronto-Dominion Bank – Preferred
US;BAC Bank of America Corp
US;JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co
US;PRU Prudential Financial Inc
US;RGA Reinsurance Group of America Inc
US;SPGI S&P Global Inc
13.4% Information Technology
US;AAPL Apple Inc
US;GOOG Alphabet Inc
US;INTC Intel Corp
US;MSFT Microsoft Corp
US;NVDA NVIDIA Corp
13.2% Energy
CA;ARX ARC Resources Ltd
CA;ENB Enbridge Inc
CA;PKI.R Parkland Fuel Corp
CA;PPL Pembina Pipeline Corp
CA;VII Seven Generations Energy Ltd
6.2% Consumer Discretionary
CA;ECI EnerCare Inc
CA;SJR.B Shaw Communications Inc
CA;ZZZ Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc
5.6% Utilities
CA;CPX_PG Capital Power Corp – Preferred
CA;PIF Polaris Infrastructure Inc
5.2% Consumer Staples
CA;MFI Maple Leaf Foods Inc
US;TAP Molson Coors Brewing Co
4.7% Industrials
CA;NFI New Flyer Industries Inc
US;RTN Raytheon Co
2.5% Real Estate
CA;MST.UN Milestone Apartments REIT
2.0% Convertible Bond
Bond Cargojet 4.65% CV 31DEC21
1.9% Materials
CA;CCL.B CCL Industries Inc
6.3% Cash and Cash Equivalents
0.0% Index Hedge
Barometer Tactical Balanced Pool
58
B a r o m e t e r Ta c t i c a l I n c o m e
Consistent with the Barometer Tactical Income Mandate1
• 14 year-track record (2001)
• Annualized returns of 12.1% since inception
Go anywhere for cash-flow
• Government bonds
• Corporate bonds
• Convertible bonds
• Preferred shares
• Income trusts and REITs
• Dividend paying common shares
Unlimited use of cash and short term deposits
Industry Allocations as at October 31, 2016
Barometer Tactical Income Pool
22.3%
15.6%
9.3%
6.2%
3.9%
3.9%
3.4%
3.1%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.7%
2.6%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Financials - Diversified Banks
Energy - Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Industrials - Aerospace & Defense
Information Technology - Semiconductors
Utilities - Electric Utilities
Information Technology - Systems Software
Convertible Bond
Materials - Diversified Chemicals
Financials - Life & Health Insurance
Health Care - Managed Health Care
Industrials - Railroads
Information Technology - Data Processing & Outsourced Services
Information Technology - Internet Software & Services
Information Technology - Communications Equipment
Industrials - Electrical Components & Equipment
Industrials - Industrial Machinery
Consumer Staples - Packaged Foods & Meats
Financials - Asset Management & Custody Banks
Industrials - Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks
Real Estate - Industrial REIT's
Corporate Bond
Utilities - Gas Utilities
Utilities - Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Sector Allocation
Financials 27.3%
Energy 24.9%
Industrials 15.3%
Information Technology 14.6%
Utilities 4.4%
Convertible Bond 3.1%
Materials 2.9%
Health Care 2.9%
Consumer Staples 2.1%
Real Estate 1.4%
Corporate Bond 1.1%
Geographic Allocation
U.S.
52%
Canada
44%
Europe
4%
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are
not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short
positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s
annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca.
Barometer Tactical Income Pool
Holdings as at October 31, 2016
27.3% Financials
CA;BAM.A Brookfield Asset Management Inc
CA;BMO Bank of Montreal
CA;BMO_PB Bank of Montreal – Preferred
CA;RY Royal Bank of Canada
CA;TD Toronto-Dominion Bank
US;BAC Bank of America Corp
US;C Citigroup Inc
US;CMA Comerica Inc
US;JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co
US;UNM Unum Group
24.9% Energy
CA;CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
CA;ENF Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc
CA;IPL Inter Pipeline Ltd
CA;PPL Pembina Pipeline Corp
CA;TRP TransCanada Corp
CA;VII Seven Generations Energy Ltd
US;APA Apache Corp
US;SE Spectra Energy Corp
15.3% Industrials
CA;CNR Canadian National Railway Co
US;CAT Caterpillar Inc
US;ETN Eaton Corporation PLC
US;IR Ingersoll-Rand PLC
US;NOC Northrop Grumman Corp
US;RTN Raytheon Co
14.6% Information Technology
US;CSCO Cisco Systems Inc
US;FB Facebook Inc
US;MSFT Microsoft Corp
US;TXN Texas Instruments Inc
US;V Visa Inc
4.4% Utilities
CA;FTS Fortis Inc
CA;H Hydro One Ltd
3.1% Convertible Bond
Bond Algonquin Power 5% CV 31MAR26
2.9% Materials
US;DOW Dow Chemical Co
2.9% Health Care
US;UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc
2.1% Consumer Staples
US;KHC Kraft Heinz Co
1.4% Real Estate
CA;AAR.UN Pure Industrial REIT
1.1% Corporate Bond
Bond Air Canada 4.75% 6OCT23
0.0% Cash and Cash Equivalents
0.0% Index Hedge
Barometer Tactical Income Pool
Returns are presented at month-end and the period is highlighted to illustrate performance during rising interest rates. The High Income Mandate (the “Mandate”) returns are expressed gross of management
fees, expenses and performance fees. Mandate returns include the Barometer Tactical Income Pool, the Disciplined Leadership High Income Fund and separately managed accounts. The data presented
represents accounts that may share a similar investment profile as the Mandate, however due to client investment restrictions may differ from the Mandate and returns should not be assumed to be indicative
of the Mandate. Further, individual client account holdings may also vary as a result of each client’s stated investment policy requirements. Performance of individual accounts may differ from the Mandate
and past performance is not indicative of future results.
We have included a 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond for general comparison to our Mandate’s performance. However, our Mandate is not representative of a 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond and the volatility and risk
profile of our Mandate may vary substantially compared to the Bond for reasons which include, but are not limited to: (i) Barometer uses an active investment style to construct portfolios; (ii) the Mandate may
hold or have held a higher concentration in specific securities and industries; (iii) investment products may utilize, short selling and other strategies as outlined in the offering documents; and (iv) may hold and
have held a higher concentration of non-rated income investments, including corporate securities, and a lower concentration of government-issued securities. Inception date of Mandate is January 2001.As at
November 30, 2015.
Ta c t i c a l I n c o m e M a n d a t e v s . 1 0 Ye a r U . S . T r e a s u r y Y i e l d
10/31/2001
to
3/31/2002
5/31/2003
to
5/31/2004
6/30/2005
to
6/30/2006
11/30/200
6 to
6/30/2007
12/31/2008
to
12/31/2009
8/31/2010
to
3/31/2011
7/31/2012
to
1/31/2013
12/31/2012
to
8/31/2013
10/31/2013
to
12/31/2013
01/31/2015
to
06/30/2015
∆ 10y U.S.
Treasury
Yield
1.16 1.28 1.22 0.57 1.63 1.00 0.52 1.03 0.47 0.71
∆ BAC ML
10y
Treasury
Price Index
-8.7% -9.2% -9.9% -4.6% -12.6% -7.6% -3.1% -8.0% -3.7% -5.7%
Tactical
Income
Mandate
7.5% 23.3% 17.9% 11.2% 27.1% 17.1% 5.5% 3.2% 3.9%
BAC ML= Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Returns are presented at month-end and the period is highlighted to illustrate performance during rising interest rates. The High Income Mandate (the “Mandate”) returns are expressed gross of
management fees, expenses and performance fees. Mandate returns include the Barometer Tactical Income Pool, the Disciplined Leadership High Income Fund and separately managed accounts. The
data presented represents accounts that may share a similar investment profile as the Mandate, however due to client investment restrictions may differ from the Mandate and returns should not be
assumed to be indicative of the Mandate. Further, individual client account holdings may also vary as a result of each client’s stated investment policy requirements. Performance of individual accounts may
differ from the Mandate and past performance is not indicative of future results.
We have included a 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond and BAC ML 10y treasury price index for general comparison to our Mandate’s performance. However, our Mandate is not representative of a 10-year U.S.
Treasury Bond and the volatility and risk profile of our Mandate may vary substantially compared to the Bond for reasons which include, but are not limited to: (i) Barometer uses an active investment style to
construct portfolios; (ii) the Mandate may hold or have held a higher concentration in specific securities and industries; (iii) investment products may utilize, short selling and other strategies as outlined in the
offering documents; and (iv) may hold and have held a higher concentration of non-rated income investments, including corporate securities, and a lower concentration of government-issued securities.
Inception date of Mandate is January, 2001.
Annualized Returns
July 31, 2016
YTD 1 YR 3 YR 5 YR 10 YR Inception
Tactical Income Mandate 4.9% -0.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.7% 12.1%
Tactical Income Mandate
Individual account performance results and account composition may differ from that of the listed mandate due to a number of factors, including fees, client imposed restrictions, timing of trade executions,
deposits, withdrawals and market fluctuations. Tactical Income Mandate (“Mandate”) performance returns are expressed gross of fees and taxes, excluding those withheld by law, or other charges that may
be payable. The Mandate performance returns are historical annual compounded total returns unless otherwise noted. Please note that benchmark returns may differ from that of the Mandate as they may
have a different composition and risk profile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Inception date of the Mandate is January 2001.
Annualized Returns YTD 1 YR 3 YR 5 YR 10 YR Inception
Tactical Income Mandate 3.0% 4.9% 6.6% 7.5% 7.6% 11.9%
50% S&P/TSX Equity Income Index/
50% FTSE TMX Canada Universe
Bond Index
11.0% 9.3% 3.0% 3.4% 4.6% 8.2%
September 30, 2016
Tactical Income Mandate
Tactical Income Pool Lower volatility
Daily total returns (January 29, 2007 – August 31, 2016)
N = 2,407 trading days Negative Days Negative Days > 1% Negative Days > 2% Largest Negative Day
S&P/TSX Composite Index TR 1,081 (44.9%) 312 (13.0%) 107 (4.4%) -9.30% (Dec 1st 2008)
BCM Tactical Income Pool TR 979 (40.7%) 85 (3.5%) 5 (0.2%) -2.95% (Nov 24th 2008)
The indicated rates of return are the historical compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional
charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. The risk profile and composition of the benchmark will differ to that of the private pool. Private pool investments are not
guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Inception date of the private pool is January 2007.
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
S&P/TSX Composite Index TR BCM Tactical Income Pool TR
Worst Five Quarterly Returns
( s i n c e m a n d a t e i n c e p t i o n )
Source: Barometer | Bloomberg LLP
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
Income Mandate S&P 500 Total Return Composite Index S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index
'11Q3 '02Q2 '11Q3 ’15Q3 '11Q3 '02Q3 '06Q4 '01Q3 '01Q1 '08Q4 '02Q3 '08Q3 '08Q3 '08Q4 '08Q4
67
S&P 500 June 2015 – Sept 2016
68
S&P500 2012 Breakout
~15%
decline
69
S&P500 2015 – 2016 Pullback
15% pullback
70
Asset classes are constantly being revalued. In the past 118 years, there have been five secular bull markets
and four secular bear markets in US equities. Portfolio construction must be dynamic and flexible.
Secular Bull and Bear Markets
Source: Dorsey Wright
71
US Equities 1983 Breakout
~16%
decline
72
16% pullback
US Equities 1984 Pullback
73
US Equities Market Chase 1984 - 1987
74
Asset classes are constantly being revalued. In the past 118 years, there have been five secular bull markets
and four secular bear markets in US equities. Portfolio construction must be dynamic and flexible.
Secular Bull and Bear Markets
Source: Dorsey Wright
75
US Equities 1951 Breakout -
~13%
decline
76
US Equities 1954 Pullback
~14% pullback
77
1954-1955 Advance After Correction
78
Asset classes are constantly being revalued. In the past 118 years, there have been five secular bull markets
and four secular bear markets in US equities. Portfolio construction must be dynamic and flexible.
Secular Bull and Bear Markets
Source: Dorsey Wright
79
Co r r e c t i o n Co mp l e t e – Ne w A l l - Ti me Hi g h s
Source: William O'Neil + Co. Incorporated
Generational Lows
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg LLP
S&P 500 with the generational lows from 2009, 1974 and 1942 lined up
81
82
Stocks Set to Reverse vs. Bonds
83
Source: Strategas Research Partners
H i s t o r y o f N a r r o w R a n g e C o n s o l i d a t i o n s
84
Don’t Follow the Bears
A P o o r S e n s e o f D i r e c t i o n ! !
85
New Highs Come in Bunches
Source: Strategas Research Partners
86
Focus in market
leadership
– without bias
Recognize
change
and adjust
Be prepared
to play defense
A tactical approach…
D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
87
D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
88
D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
89
D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
90
D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
91
93
Asset classes are constantly being revalued. In the past 118 years, there have been five secular bull markets
and four secular bear markets in US equities. Portfolio construction must be dynamic and flexible.
Secular Bull and Bear Markets
Source: Dorsey Wright
94
95
96
Bull Market vs. Bear Market Returns
Source: Strategas Research
97
Why Barometer?
Active tactical mandate
Historically effective at managing draw-downs
An Evergreen Strategy – focus on leadership
Unbiased with respect to style
Low correlation
Lower beta – attractive risk adjusted returns
Proven.

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Barometer Readings November 2016

  • 1.
  • 2. 2 Focus in market leadership – without bias Recognize change and adjust Be prepared to play defense A tactical approach… D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
  • 3. 3 N Y S E E q u i t y B r e a d t h 1 9 9 8 – F e b 2 0 1 6 Source: Dorsey Wright & Associates
  • 4. 4 N Y S E S h o r t I n t e r e s t 2 0 0 7 – C u r r e n t
  • 5. 5 A A I I % B u l l i s h S e n t i me n t 1 9 8 7 – J a n 1 4 , 2 0 1 6
  • 6. 6 Gl o b a l E q u i t y B r e a d t h – C u r r e n t Source: Dorsey Wright
  • 7. 7 Canadian Equity (S&P/TSX)Bullish % Canadian Equity (S&P/TSX) Source: Dorsey Wright & Associates, Sept 12 2016 Canadian Equity Breadth and Index
  • 9. 9 TSX near 52 week highs
  • 13. 13
  • 14. 14 Strong Sectors - Improving Breadth
  • 17. 17 Semis - Basic building blocks leading
  • 20. 20 Weak Sectors – Narrowing Breadth
  • 21. 21
  • 26. 26 Funds have elevated Cash Positions!
  • 27. 27
  • 28. 28 Equity Exposure at Multi -Year Lows
  • 29. 29 Profit Taking – Yet no market weakness!
  • 30. 30 Smart Money Buying, Private Clients Selling!
  • 32. 32 Bank credit default swaps (CDS) - benign
  • 33. 33 Treasury Curve - Steepening
  • 34. 34
  • 35. 35
  • 36. 36
  • 37. 37 TSX Most Recent High – Sept 2014!
  • 38. 38 E q u i t i e s Off e r B e s t R i s k P r e mi u m Source: Cornerstone Macro
  • 40. Global PMI's With Developed (DM) and Emerging (EM) Market Subindexes M740 OCT 2016 55 55 54 54 53 53 52 52 51 51 50 50 49 49 48 48 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global DM EM 52.0 52.8 51.0
  • 41. Global Economic Surprise Factor Citi 55% G10 surprise plus 45% Emerging Market surpriseD142 2 NOV 16 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2013 2014 2015 2016 6.4
  • 42. 42
  • 43. 43
  • 44. 44
  • 45. 45
  • 46. 46
  • 48. Industry Allocations as at October 31, 2016 Barometer Equity Pool 17.3% 13.2% 8.2% 5.4% 4.5% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Information Technology - Semiconductors Information Technology - Internet Software & Services Consumer Staples - Packaged Foods & Meats Materials - Diversified Metals & Mining Utilities - Renewable Electricity Information Technology - Application Software Consumer Discretionary - Leisure Products Financials - Investment Banking & Brokerage Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Information Technology - IT Consulting & Other Services Materials - Copper Industrials - Airlines Industrials - Environmental & Facilities Services Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Consumer Staples - Food Retail Industrials - Research & Consulting Services Information Technology - Systems Software Materials - Gold Consumer Discretionary - General Merchandise Stores Consumer Discretionary - Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Cash Materials - Construction Materials Consumer Discretionary - Homefurnishing Retail Energy - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Information Technology - Communications Equipment Sector Allocation Information Technology 31.0% Energy 21.1% Consumer Discretionary 11.4% Materials 11.0% Industrials 8.5% Consumer Staples 8.1% Utilities 3.7% Financials 3.1% Cash 2.1% Geographic Allocation Canada 61% U.S. 33% Asia 3% Europe 3%
  • 49. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca. Barometer Equity Pool Holdings as at October 31, 2016 31.0% Information Technology CA;KXS Kinaxis Inc CA;SHOP Shopify Inc US;ADBE Adobe Systems Inc US;AVGO Broadcom Ltd US;FB Facebook Inc US;GOOG Alphabet Inc US;LDOS Leidos Holdings Inc US;NVDA NVIDIA Corp US;NXPI NXP Semiconductors NV US;TXN Texas Instruments Inc 21.1% Energy CA;ARX ARC Resources Ltd CA;CR Crew Energy Inc CA;ECA Encana Corp CA;NVA NuVista Energy Ltd CA;PKI Parkland Fuel Corp CA;VII Seven Generations Energy Ltd CA;WCP Whitecap Resources Inc US;PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Co 11.4% Consumer Discretionary CA;ATZ Aritzia Inc CA;DOL Dollarama Inc CA;TOY Spin Master Corp US;PCLN Priceline Group Inc 11.0% Materials CA;FM First Quantum Minerals Ltd CA;KDX Klondex Mines Ltd CA;TCK.B Teck Resources Ltd US;FRTA Forterra Inc 8.5% Industrials CA;AC Air Canada CA;WCN Waste Connections Inc US;INFO IHS Markit Ltd 8.1% Consumer Staples CA;ATD.B Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc CA;MFI Maple Leaf Foods Inc CA;SAP Saputo Inc 3.7% Utilities CA;PIF Polaris Infrastructure Inc 3.1% Financials US;MS Morgan Stanley 2.1% Cash and Cash Equivalents 0.0% Index Hedge
  • 51. 51 Barometer Global Macro Pool – 3 Years
  • 52. Industry Allocations as at October 31, 2016 Barometer Global Macro Pool Geographic Allocation 30.8% 18.1% 13.0% 11.0% 10.4% 9.9% 8.8% 8.1% 5.9% 5.4% 5.2% 3.9% 2.8% 1.5% -1.2% -1.4% -1.5% -1.9% -4.1% -4.9% -6.2% -13.6% U.S. Information Technology Sector U.S. Financials Sector Emerging Markets - Asia U.S. Large Cap U.S. Industrials Sector U.S. Small Cap U.S. Energy Sector U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector Emerging Markets - LATAM Commodities Emerging Markets U.S. Materials Sector U.S. Health Care Sector Developed Markets - Asia U.S. Consumer Staples Sector Volatility Gold Currency - Japanese Yen U.S. Utilities Sector Fixed Income - Aggregate/Other Currency - US Dollar Fixed Income - U.S. Government U.S. 76% Asia 13% Lat Am 6% E.M. 5%
  • 53. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca. Barometer Global Macro Pool Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca. Holdings as at October 31, 2016 30.8% U.S. Information Technology Sector US;IGM iShares North American Tech ETF US;IGV iShares North American Tech-Software ETF US;PNQI PowerShares Nasdaq Internet ETF US;PSCT PowerShares S&P SmallCap Info TechETF US;SKYY First Trust ISE Cloud Computing Index Fund US;SOCL Global X Social Media Index ETF US;SOXX iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF US;XSD SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF 18.1% U.S. Financials Sector US;IAI iShares US Broker Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF US;KBE SPDR S&P Bank ETF US;KIE SPDR S&P Insurance ETF US;KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF 13.0% Emerging Markets - Asia US;EIDO iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF US;EWT iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF US;GXC SPDR S&P China ETF US;SCIF VanEck Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF 11.0% U.S. Large Cap US;QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF US;SPHB Powershares S&P 500 High Beta Portfolio US;SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 10.4% U.S. Industrials Sector US;ITA iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF US;IYJ iShares US Industrials ETF US;XTN SPDR S&P Transportation ETF Trust 9.9% U.S. Small Cap US;IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF US;IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF US;IJT iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF 8.8% U.S. Energy Sector US;FRAK VanEck Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF US;XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF 8.1% U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector US;FDN First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund US;PEJ PowerShares Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment ETF 5.9% Emerging Markets - LATAM US;EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF 5.4% Commodities US;SGG Barclays Bank iPath Bloomberg Sugar ETN US;UNG United States Natural Gas ETF 5.2% Emerging Markets US;EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 3.9% U.S. Materials Sector US;SLX VanEck Vectors Steel ETF US;XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF 2.8% U.S. Health Care Sector US;IHI iShares US Medical Devices ETF 1.5% Commodities US;DXJ WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF -1.2% U.S. Consumer Staples Sector -1.4% Volatility -1.5% Gold -1.9% Currency - Japanese Yen -4.1% U.S. Utilities Sector -4.9% Fixed Income - Aggregate/Other -6.2% Currency - US Dollar -13.6% Fixed Income - U.S. Government 0.0% Cash and Cash Equivalents 0.0% Index Hedge
  • 55. Industry Allocations as at October 31, 2016 Barometer Tactical Balanced Pool 20.3% 11.9% 6.3% 5.5% 4.8% 4.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3% Corporate Bond Financials - Diversified Banks Cash Energy - Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation Information Technology - Semiconductors Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Information Technology - Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Utilities - Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Consumer Discretionary - Specialized Consumer Services Consumer Staples - Packaged Foods & Meats Information Technology - Internet Software & Services Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Utilities - Renewable Electricity Information Technology - Systems Software Real Estate - Residential REIT's Financials - Reinsurance Financials - Life & Health Insurance Consumer Staples - Brewers Convertible Bond Financials - Financial Exchanges & Data Consumer Discretionary - Cable & Satellite Industrials - Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Materials - Metal & Glass Containers Consumer Discretionary - Homefurnishing Retail Sector Allocation Corporate Bond 20.3% Financials 18.7% Information Technology 13.4% Energy 13.2% Cash 6.3% Consumer Discretionary 6.2% Utilities 5.6% Consumer Staples 5.2% Industrials 4.7% Real Estate 2.5% Convertible Bond 2.0% Materials 1.9% Asset Allocation Geographic Allocation Equities 72% Corp Bond 20% Cash 6% Conv Bond 2% Canada 57% U.S. 43%
  • 56. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca. Barometer Tactical Balanced Pool Holdings as at October 31, 2016 20.3% Corporate Bond Bond DHX Media 5.875% 2DEC21 Bond Great Canadian Gaming 6.625% 25JUL22 Bond Great-West Life 5.691% 21JUN67 Bond Parkland Fuel 6% 21NOV22 Bond Penske Automotive 2.95% 12JUN20 Bond GFL Environmental 9.875% 1FEB21 USD Bond OpenText 5.625% 15JAN23 USD Bond TD Northgroup 6.378% 29JAN49 USD 18.7% Financials CA;BNS_PH Bank of Nova Scotia – Preferred CA;TD Toronto-Dominion Bank CA;TD_PFH Toronto-Dominion Bank – Preferred US;BAC Bank of America Corp US;JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co US;PRU Prudential Financial Inc US;RGA Reinsurance Group of America Inc US;SPGI S&P Global Inc 13.4% Information Technology US;AAPL Apple Inc US;GOOG Alphabet Inc US;INTC Intel Corp US;MSFT Microsoft Corp US;NVDA NVIDIA Corp 13.2% Energy CA;ARX ARC Resources Ltd CA;ENB Enbridge Inc CA;PKI.R Parkland Fuel Corp CA;PPL Pembina Pipeline Corp CA;VII Seven Generations Energy Ltd 6.2% Consumer Discretionary CA;ECI EnerCare Inc CA;SJR.B Shaw Communications Inc CA;ZZZ Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc 5.6% Utilities CA;CPX_PG Capital Power Corp – Preferred CA;PIF Polaris Infrastructure Inc 5.2% Consumer Staples CA;MFI Maple Leaf Foods Inc US;TAP Molson Coors Brewing Co 4.7% Industrials CA;NFI New Flyer Industries Inc US;RTN Raytheon Co 2.5% Real Estate CA;MST.UN Milestone Apartments REIT 2.0% Convertible Bond Bond Cargojet 4.65% CV 31DEC21 1.9% Materials CA;CCL.B CCL Industries Inc 6.3% Cash and Cash Equivalents 0.0% Index Hedge
  • 58. 58 B a r o m e t e r Ta c t i c a l I n c o m e Consistent with the Barometer Tactical Income Mandate1 • 14 year-track record (2001) • Annualized returns of 12.1% since inception Go anywhere for cash-flow • Government bonds • Corporate bonds • Convertible bonds • Preferred shares • Income trusts and REITs • Dividend paying common shares Unlimited use of cash and short term deposits
  • 59. Industry Allocations as at October 31, 2016 Barometer Tactical Income Pool 22.3% 15.6% 9.3% 6.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% Financials - Diversified Banks Energy - Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Information Technology - Semiconductors Utilities - Electric Utilities Information Technology - Systems Software Convertible Bond Materials - Diversified Chemicals Financials - Life & Health Insurance Health Care - Managed Health Care Industrials - Railroads Information Technology - Data Processing & Outsourced Services Information Technology - Internet Software & Services Information Technology - Communications Equipment Industrials - Electrical Components & Equipment Industrials - Industrial Machinery Consumer Staples - Packaged Foods & Meats Financials - Asset Management & Custody Banks Industrials - Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Real Estate - Industrial REIT's Corporate Bond Utilities - Gas Utilities Utilities - Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Sector Allocation Financials 27.3% Energy 24.9% Industrials 15.3% Information Technology 14.6% Utilities 4.4% Convertible Bond 3.1% Materials 2.9% Health Care 2.9% Consumer Staples 2.1% Real Estate 1.4% Corporate Bond 1.1% Geographic Allocation U.S. 52% Canada 44% Europe 4%
  • 60. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with private pool investments. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Private pools are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Private pool strategies and current holdings are subject to change. Portfolio holdings do not include short positions. The portfolio holdings information above may not contain all investments held, may differ from Barometer’s marketing materials, and may be different from the Barometer Private Pool’s annual financial report for the same period. The offering memorandum and other information about the pool are available at www.barometercapital.ca. Barometer Tactical Income Pool Holdings as at October 31, 2016 27.3% Financials CA;BAM.A Brookfield Asset Management Inc CA;BMO Bank of Montreal CA;BMO_PB Bank of Montreal – Preferred CA;RY Royal Bank of Canada CA;TD Toronto-Dominion Bank US;BAC Bank of America Corp US;C Citigroup Inc US;CMA Comerica Inc US;JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co US;UNM Unum Group 24.9% Energy CA;CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd CA;ENF Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc CA;IPL Inter Pipeline Ltd CA;PPL Pembina Pipeline Corp CA;TRP TransCanada Corp CA;VII Seven Generations Energy Ltd US;APA Apache Corp US;SE Spectra Energy Corp 15.3% Industrials CA;CNR Canadian National Railway Co US;CAT Caterpillar Inc US;ETN Eaton Corporation PLC US;IR Ingersoll-Rand PLC US;NOC Northrop Grumman Corp US;RTN Raytheon Co 14.6% Information Technology US;CSCO Cisco Systems Inc US;FB Facebook Inc US;MSFT Microsoft Corp US;TXN Texas Instruments Inc US;V Visa Inc 4.4% Utilities CA;FTS Fortis Inc CA;H Hydro One Ltd 3.1% Convertible Bond Bond Algonquin Power 5% CV 31MAR26 2.9% Materials US;DOW Dow Chemical Co 2.9% Health Care US;UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc 2.1% Consumer Staples US;KHC Kraft Heinz Co 1.4% Real Estate CA;AAR.UN Pure Industrial REIT 1.1% Corporate Bond Bond Air Canada 4.75% 6OCT23 0.0% Cash and Cash Equivalents 0.0% Index Hedge
  • 62. Returns are presented at month-end and the period is highlighted to illustrate performance during rising interest rates. The High Income Mandate (the “Mandate”) returns are expressed gross of management fees, expenses and performance fees. Mandate returns include the Barometer Tactical Income Pool, the Disciplined Leadership High Income Fund and separately managed accounts. The data presented represents accounts that may share a similar investment profile as the Mandate, however due to client investment restrictions may differ from the Mandate and returns should not be assumed to be indicative of the Mandate. Further, individual client account holdings may also vary as a result of each client’s stated investment policy requirements. Performance of individual accounts may differ from the Mandate and past performance is not indicative of future results. We have included a 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond for general comparison to our Mandate’s performance. However, our Mandate is not representative of a 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond and the volatility and risk profile of our Mandate may vary substantially compared to the Bond for reasons which include, but are not limited to: (i) Barometer uses an active investment style to construct portfolios; (ii) the Mandate may hold or have held a higher concentration in specific securities and industries; (iii) investment products may utilize, short selling and other strategies as outlined in the offering documents; and (iv) may hold and have held a higher concentration of non-rated income investments, including corporate securities, and a lower concentration of government-issued securities. Inception date of Mandate is January 2001.As at November 30, 2015. Ta c t i c a l I n c o m e M a n d a t e v s . 1 0 Ye a r U . S . T r e a s u r y Y i e l d
  • 63. 10/31/2001 to 3/31/2002 5/31/2003 to 5/31/2004 6/30/2005 to 6/30/2006 11/30/200 6 to 6/30/2007 12/31/2008 to 12/31/2009 8/31/2010 to 3/31/2011 7/31/2012 to 1/31/2013 12/31/2012 to 8/31/2013 10/31/2013 to 12/31/2013 01/31/2015 to 06/30/2015 ∆ 10y U.S. Treasury Yield 1.16 1.28 1.22 0.57 1.63 1.00 0.52 1.03 0.47 0.71 ∆ BAC ML 10y Treasury Price Index -8.7% -9.2% -9.9% -4.6% -12.6% -7.6% -3.1% -8.0% -3.7% -5.7% Tactical Income Mandate 7.5% 23.3% 17.9% 11.2% 27.1% 17.1% 5.5% 3.2% 3.9% BAC ML= Bank of America Merrill Lynch Returns are presented at month-end and the period is highlighted to illustrate performance during rising interest rates. The High Income Mandate (the “Mandate”) returns are expressed gross of management fees, expenses and performance fees. Mandate returns include the Barometer Tactical Income Pool, the Disciplined Leadership High Income Fund and separately managed accounts. The data presented represents accounts that may share a similar investment profile as the Mandate, however due to client investment restrictions may differ from the Mandate and returns should not be assumed to be indicative of the Mandate. Further, individual client account holdings may also vary as a result of each client’s stated investment policy requirements. Performance of individual accounts may differ from the Mandate and past performance is not indicative of future results. We have included a 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond and BAC ML 10y treasury price index for general comparison to our Mandate’s performance. However, our Mandate is not representative of a 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond and the volatility and risk profile of our Mandate may vary substantially compared to the Bond for reasons which include, but are not limited to: (i) Barometer uses an active investment style to construct portfolios; (ii) the Mandate may hold or have held a higher concentration in specific securities and industries; (iii) investment products may utilize, short selling and other strategies as outlined in the offering documents; and (iv) may hold and have held a higher concentration of non-rated income investments, including corporate securities, and a lower concentration of government-issued securities. Inception date of Mandate is January, 2001. Annualized Returns July 31, 2016 YTD 1 YR 3 YR 5 YR 10 YR Inception Tactical Income Mandate 4.9% -0.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.7% 12.1% Tactical Income Mandate
  • 64. Individual account performance results and account composition may differ from that of the listed mandate due to a number of factors, including fees, client imposed restrictions, timing of trade executions, deposits, withdrawals and market fluctuations. Tactical Income Mandate (“Mandate”) performance returns are expressed gross of fees and taxes, excluding those withheld by law, or other charges that may be payable. The Mandate performance returns are historical annual compounded total returns unless otherwise noted. Please note that benchmark returns may differ from that of the Mandate as they may have a different composition and risk profile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Inception date of the Mandate is January 2001. Annualized Returns YTD 1 YR 3 YR 5 YR 10 YR Inception Tactical Income Mandate 3.0% 4.9% 6.6% 7.5% 7.6% 11.9% 50% S&P/TSX Equity Income Index/ 50% FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index 11.0% 9.3% 3.0% 3.4% 4.6% 8.2% September 30, 2016 Tactical Income Mandate
  • 65. Tactical Income Pool Lower volatility Daily total returns (January 29, 2007 – August 31, 2016) N = 2,407 trading days Negative Days Negative Days > 1% Negative Days > 2% Largest Negative Day S&P/TSX Composite Index TR 1,081 (44.9%) 312 (13.0%) 107 (4.4%) -9.30% (Dec 1st 2008) BCM Tactical Income Pool TR 979 (40.7%) 85 (3.5%) 5 (0.2%) -2.95% (Nov 24th 2008) The indicated rates of return are the historical compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. The risk profile and composition of the benchmark will differ to that of the private pool. Private pool investments are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please read the offering memorandum before investing. Inception date of the private pool is January 2007. -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 S&P/TSX Composite Index TR BCM Tactical Income Pool TR
  • 66. Worst Five Quarterly Returns ( s i n c e m a n d a t e i n c e p t i o n ) Source: Barometer | Bloomberg LLP -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% Income Mandate S&P 500 Total Return Composite Index S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index '11Q3 '02Q2 '11Q3 ’15Q3 '11Q3 '02Q3 '06Q4 '01Q3 '01Q1 '08Q4 '02Q3 '08Q3 '08Q3 '08Q4 '08Q4
  • 67. 67 S&P 500 June 2015 – Sept 2016
  • 69. 69 S&P500 2015 – 2016 Pullback 15% pullback
  • 70. 70 Asset classes are constantly being revalued. In the past 118 years, there have been five secular bull markets and four secular bear markets in US equities. Portfolio construction must be dynamic and flexible. Secular Bull and Bear Markets Source: Dorsey Wright
  • 71. 71 US Equities 1983 Breakout ~16% decline
  • 73. 73 US Equities Market Chase 1984 - 1987
  • 74. 74 Asset classes are constantly being revalued. In the past 118 years, there have been five secular bull markets and four secular bear markets in US equities. Portfolio construction must be dynamic and flexible. Secular Bull and Bear Markets Source: Dorsey Wright
  • 75. 75 US Equities 1951 Breakout - ~13% decline
  • 76. 76 US Equities 1954 Pullback ~14% pullback
  • 78. 78 Asset classes are constantly being revalued. In the past 118 years, there have been five secular bull markets and four secular bear markets in US equities. Portfolio construction must be dynamic and flexible. Secular Bull and Bear Markets Source: Dorsey Wright
  • 79. 79 Co r r e c t i o n Co mp l e t e – Ne w A l l - Ti me Hi g h s Source: William O'Neil + Co. Incorporated
  • 80. Generational Lows Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg LLP S&P 500 with the generational lows from 2009, 1974 and 1942 lined up
  • 81. 81
  • 82. 82 Stocks Set to Reverse vs. Bonds
  • 83. 83 Source: Strategas Research Partners H i s t o r y o f N a r r o w R a n g e C o n s o l i d a t i o n s
  • 84. 84 Don’t Follow the Bears A P o o r S e n s e o f D i r e c t i o n ! !
  • 85. 85 New Highs Come in Bunches Source: Strategas Research Partners
  • 86. 86 Focus in market leadership – without bias Recognize change and adjust Be prepared to play defense A tactical approach… D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
  • 87. 87 D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
  • 88. 88 D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
  • 89. 89 D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
  • 90. 90 D i s c i p l i n e d L e a d e r s h i p A p p r o a c h ™
  • 91. 91
  • 92.
  • 93. 93 Asset classes are constantly being revalued. In the past 118 years, there have been five secular bull markets and four secular bear markets in US equities. Portfolio construction must be dynamic and flexible. Secular Bull and Bear Markets Source: Dorsey Wright
  • 94. 94
  • 95. 95
  • 96. 96 Bull Market vs. Bear Market Returns Source: Strategas Research
  • 97. 97 Why Barometer? Active tactical mandate Historically effective at managing draw-downs An Evergreen Strategy – focus on leadership Unbiased with respect to style Low correlation Lower beta – attractive risk adjusted returns Proven.