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Our future in a changing world ds 15 sep 19 ds
- 1. © Dave Stanley tochallengethethinking e3 Our Future in a Changing World Dave Stanley
- 2. Green Economy is ???? © Dave Stanley Food Production Retail Consumption Services Power Generation Ozone Depletion Ecosystem Biodiversity Loss Land Loss & Soil Degradation Water & Air Pollution Health Hunger Acidification Industry Transport Leisure Clothing Government Climate Change Ecosystems Carbon & Nitrogen Cycle Disruption Energy Defence Resources THE ECONOMY
- 3. © Dave Stanley Ozone Depletion Ecosystem Biodiversity Loss Soil Degradation Water & Air Pollution Health Hunger Acidification Green Economy is ???? Climate Change Ecosystems Carbon & Nitrogen Cycle Disruption Degradation Loss Agriculture & Food both contribute to these impacts and are negatively effected by the impacts
- 4. Green Economy is ???? © Dave Stanley Food Production Retail Consumption Services Power Generation Ozone Depletion Ecosystem Biodiversity Loss Land Loss & Soil Degradation Water & Air Pollution Health Hunger Acidification Industry Transport Leisure Clothing Government Climate Change Ecosystems Carbon & Nitrogen Cycle Disruption THE ECONOMY Energy Resources Defence As well as Climate Change Energy Reduction Delivers reductions in MOST Impacts!
- 5. Carbon Cycle – NASA - May 2012 & Gigatonnes of C Soil © Dave Stanley SOIL
- 6. Climate Change is NOT caused by Greenhouse Gases!!! The functioning of earth’s biosphere, water and carbon cycles are dependent on a delicate balance of Greenhouse gasses– water vapour , carbon dioxide, and methane. © Dave Stanley
- 7. 410 ppmDUMP © Dave Stanley 2017 1850 Atmosphere Stable “Greenhouse Effect” Atmosphere Unstable “Climate Change” Ecosystems Cycling H2O CO2 CH4 N2O Anthropogenic Discharging H2O CO2 CH4 N2O HFC/PFCs, SF6 Oceans Forests Grasslands Soils Oil Coal Gas GHGs NOT the “Cause” of Climate Change E N E R G Y The “Economy” FOSSIL FUEL INTENSIVE - Degenerative Agriculture Extract USE “Linear”Economics FOSSIL FUEL REDUCTION CauseEffectImpact Crust – New Additional Hydrocarbon 280 ppm SOLAR/PHOTOSYNTHESIS REGENERATIVE FARMING
- 8. © Dave Stanley We still have our foot hard on the Accelerator! Global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, its fastest pace in the last decade. IEA
- 9. © Dave Stanley Global Warming????? Carbon Dioxide from 280ppm Now 420ppm and rising
- 10. © Dave Stanley
- 11. Summary for Policymakers Emission Pathways and System Transitions Consistent with 1.5°C Global Warming In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 reaching net ZERO around 2050 © Dave Stanley
- 12. Global Warming – Space Age Solutions Geoengineering???? © Dave Stanley
- 13. “ …. and I agree that our main collective priority must still be to cut emissions; end the use of fossil fuels; and promote a zero-carbon, climate-resilient, and people-centered economic transition.” © Dave Stanley
- 14. © Dave Stanley Energy efficiency belongs at the heart of a low- carbon economy. By reducing energy use and cutting down on waste, we can reduce energy bills, make our energy system more sustainable, and drive down greenhouse gas emissions. DECC - The Energy Efficiency _ The Energy Efficiency Opportunity in the UK ???????? Energy Efficiency = Energy Reduction THE MYTH THAT ENERGY EFFICIENCY DELIVERS GHG REDUCTION
- 15. © e3
- 16. © Dave Stanley© Dave Stanley © Dave Stanley Transport – Energy Reduction Youtube – Dave Stanley - Energy & Transport Saving 50% Today
- 17. © Dave Stanley Homes – Energy Reduction
- 19. The Problem – Our Broken Food System BIG Numbers & Issues • Global population up 2 billion 2050 • UK population up 10 + million 2050 • Ever rising energy and water intensity • Global – 40% all grain fed to animals. 80% antibiotics fed to animals. • Global – last 100 years – 1 Billion acres of farm land abandoned • Global – 35% ecosystems lost and remainder degraded • UK –Last 50 years Soil Organic Carbon – 50 – 70 % loss in arable land • UK Farmland birds – 50% decline (Biodiversity) • UK – 40% Food wasted • Nutrients – Trace Elements decline in most foods. Doctor – 1 Apple - or 3?? • Health UK Food related diseases – Obesity, diabetes, CVD • Over consumption - UK Fatman EU – 62% obese/overweight – 2500 cals/day • UK only 61 % self sufficient – and declining • Myth of Efficiency & Productivity. “Sustainable Intensification” • Cheap Food, Commodity, Agribusiness/Supermarkets, Equity - Farm incomes • Government Policy – or lack of it (“Import”)© Dave Stanley Climate Change
- 20. © Dave Stanley 1950 1 Or Energy Intensity Food Calories Produced Per Fossil Fuel Calorie Used 10 Calories Energy in – 1 Calorie of Food Out 1 Calorie of Energy in – 2.3 Calories of Food Out
- 21. Dave Stanley e3 Food “Chain”-Energy Intensive & High CO2, CH4 & N2O Ploughing + Nitrates Intensive Waste Slurry Landfill Sewage Incineration CH4 N2O CO2 + N2O CH4 CH4 CH4 + 30% CO2 CO2 + Loss Methanotrophs Soil Food Loss All + Transport NB. Last 15 years in EU total 5.5m ha pasture ploughed up – largely for GRAIN for Cattle, Pigs & Poultry, and Biofuels. Results in 250t CO2e/ha = double UK annual emissions of GHGs© Dave Stanley 40% ALL Grain Feed Over Production of Grain the Real Problem???? 10 Calories in - 1 out
- 22. Monoculture – Intensive Agriculture © Dave Stanley
- 23. © Dave Stanley UK is 30-40 years away from 'eradication of soil fertility', warns Gove
- 24. Soil Degradation and Loss © Dave Stanley
- 25. © Dave Stanley
- 26. © Dave Stanley
- 27. © Dave Stanley Flood trends NW Europe have increased 11 per cent per decade for last 3 decades. Broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century....... climate-driven changes are already happening. NOAA
- 28. © Dave Stanley 50% + Loss of Farmland Birds 50% + Loss of Soil Organic Matter Connected??? Food Chain Bottom Top Biodiversity Loss
- 29. © Dave Stanley Invasive Species
- 30. © Dave Stanley
- 31. GHGs Reduction – Problem – Beef/Sheep or Grain?? © Dave Stanley INPUTS Grain Free Pasture Fed Beef Grain Fed Meat – Pork, Chicken, Beef Fossil Fuels Oil/Gas Forest Clearance Wetland Drainage Ploughing Grassland Nitrate Fertilisers OUTPUTS Natural Capital - Sun, Photosynthesis, Rain, Soil, Grassland Ecosystem Including Grazing Cattle/Sheep?? Pork Chicken Beef Slurry Nutrient Deficient Meat + Loss of Biodiversity & Soil, Water Pollution, Flooding, Climate Change Emissions Biodiversity CO2 Animal Welfare Mitigation Healthy Beef to Soil Flood & Drought Pasture Fed Beef/Sheep & Grain Free
- 32. NATURE’S CARBON CYCLE POWERED BY PHOTOSYNTHESIS
- 33. Sustainable Food Production Methods and Carbon Drawdown © Dave Stanley Market Gardens Allotments Agroforestry Sylviculture Inter or multicropping Covercropping Mixed or Rotational Farming LIVESTOCK – Chickens, Pigs, Sheep, Cattle Grassland & Ruminants BEAM Biologically Enhanced Agriculture Management Fastest Sequestration
- 34. Fresh - Local - Seasonal - “Organic” - if meat/dairy 100% Pasture Fed and Grainfree - carries you a long way!!! Sustainable Food - Agroecology © Dave Stanley • “Cyclical” Working with Natures Nutrient Cycles and Low Energy – Fossil Fuel • GHG “Drawdown”, Sequestrates Carbon • Regenerates SOIL Fertility & Mitigates Flood/Drought • Enhances Ecosystems • Human health - Sufficient, Safe & Nutritious • Socially Equitable • Secure and Resilient (Animal Welfare) Regenerative Farming
- 35. © Dave Stanley Our Future in a Changing World??? ? ?
- 36. © Dave Stanley
Hinweis der Redaktion
- http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/ May 2012 http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0041962 co2 emissions soil 79gt
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1495-6 Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
- Similar situation marine ecosystems breakdown bottom of food chain – but connection is frequently made -RSPB The explanation for farmland bird declines Research into the declines of some species of farmland birds have shown that there is no single reason, but that different species have reacted to different factors, and that often, declines are associated with more than one factor impacting on a species simultaneously. Research has shown that the main factors driving declines since 1970 are: The loss of mixed farming causing a loss of habitat diversity, leading to less diversity of plants and animals, and fewer opportunities for birds to forage in different habitats throughout the year The increased use and efficacy of pesticides leading to the loss of insect food and weed seeds Changes in crops grown, such as the loss of spring crops which provide nesting habitat for lapwings and better habitat for other ground-nesting birds such as skylark, yellow wagtail and corn bunting. Also loss of winter fallow habitats, such as winter stubbles, which are important for winter foraging. Large areas of single crops can have dramatic impacts on the abundance of less mobile invertebrates, particularly when insecticides are used Many changes in grassland management have led to a reduction in the abundance of seeds and insects, and the quality of grassland as a nesting habitat. These include increased stocking rates, more efficient grazing systems, increased nutrient inputs, reseeding and the switch from hay to silage Increased field sizes have caused the loss of nesting habitat for some species, but more importantly, the loss of insect-rich foraging habitat and weedy field margins Field drainage has not only removed wetland habitats, but also damp areas with more soil invertebrates that provided food for birds such as tree sparrows, reed buntings and yellow wagtails Predation has had an additive effect to the impacts of pesticide use on grey partridges and the loss of nesting habitat on some local populations of lapwings when populations are already at low levels. Many predators, such as foxes and crows, have increased since 1970. Population trends of common birds of prey have been largely stable since the mid-1990s, apart from the buzzard, which has increased substantially. Sparrowhawk numbers climbed in arable England in the 1980s and the increase in buzzard numbers started in the 1990s, both after the sharpest decline of the farmland birds occurred Weather has an impact on all bird species: the harsh winters experienced in the late 1970s and early 1980s hit resident species hard, but these were interspersed with milder winters when most species recovered. This could have had an additive impact on birds that were also struggling for other reasons. Much of the annual variation in population trends is related to weather, with stable species declining in years with poor weather (such as cold winters or dry
- What we began to understand is that cows are an intrinsic part of nature’s carbon cycle, and ultimately the very mechanism by which carbon is sequestered into the soil – although this largely isn’t always the case due to how the animals are fed …. More on that in a moment.