Presented by Neeraj Madan, Data Scientist at IBM

1. Prepared for Dallas Data Science Conference 2017
February 18th, 2017, University of Texas at Dallas
Fighting the Underworld
of Bike Theft with Data
Neeraj Madan, Data Scientist (IBM Watson)

2. ©2016 IBM Corporation2 14 February 201714 February 20172
Agenda
 Introduction (My journey to Data Science Profession)
 Background
 Project Approach & High Level Timeline
 Objectives
 Key Factors
 Scenarios shared by Stakeholders
 Recommendations

3. ©2016 IBM Corporation3 14 February 201714 February 20173
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Introduction
Bachelor’s Master’s
Mathematics Gen. Mgmt.
Master’s
Advertising
Master’s
Analytics
Technical Analyst, Helpdesk
Team Lead, Helpdesk
Manager Operations, Helpdesk
Project Manager, Human Resources (Transformation)
Program Manager, Human Resources (Transformation)
Management Consultant, Strategy & Analytics
Data Scientist,
Cloud
Education
Career Path Contact Center Human Resources Management Consulting Data Science
My journey to Data Science Profession
Data Scientist,
Watson

4. ©2016 IBM Corporation4 14 February 201714 February 20174
Background (1 of 3)
Parking bike inside MCRD Hall
Bike theft notice in “Free &
For Sale” FB Community

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Background (2 of 3)
1. 490 bicycles worth an estimated $157,596 per year were stolen across
Tempe, Downtown, West and Polytechnic campus, Arizona State
University.
2. In the period between 2010 and 2014, 2447 bicycles worth an estimated
$787,984 were stolen.
3. 45% riders did not report bike theft to police department.
4. The recovery rate for the last five years is 4.37% (107 out of 2447) with an
estimated value that is 3.64% of the overall theft in last 5 years.

6. ©2016 IBM Corporation6 14 February 201714 February 20176
Background (3 of 3)
Timeframe: 2010 - 2014
180
204 197 200
110
79 66
237
310
255
216
143
0
100
200
300
400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Monthly Bike Theft Trend
Tempe Downtown Polytechnic West
55,000, 74%
11,277, 15%
4,173, 6% 3,701, 5%
Student Population
Tempe Downtown Polytechnic West
$717,063 , 91%
$48,166 , 6%
$9,976 , 1%
$12,379 , 2%
Stolen Bike Value ($)
Tempe Downtown Polytechnic West
489
429
503
385 391
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
YoY Bike Theft Trend (Tempe)
Data Source: ASU Police Department and Parking & Transit Services

7. ©2016 IBM Corporation7 14 February 201714 February 20177
Objectives
1. Use a methodology to track and report the key milestones
2. Identify the key factors involved in the bike theft cases.
3. Study the scenarios shared by stakeholders.
4. Formulate recommendations to address the bike theft.
5. Incorporate stakeholders’ feedback and share a project report.

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Project Approach and Timeline
Business
Understanding
Data
Understanding
Data
Preparation
Data
Analysis
Evaluation Deployment
Collect
Initial Data
Describe
Data
Explore
Data
Verify
Data Quality
Review
Analysis
Incorporate
Feedback
Determine
Next Step
Produce Final
Report
Produce
Statistics
Interpret and
Explain
Statistics
Prepare
Statistics for
Dissemination
Finalize
Content
Determine
Business
Objective
Assess
Situation
Determine Data
Mining Goals
Produce Project
Plan
Select
Data
Clean
Data
Construct
Data
Integrate
Data
Format
Data
Oct 29th 2014 - Feb 28th 2015
Feb 15th 2015 - Mar 30th 2015
Apr 1st 2015 - Apr 24th 2015
CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining)

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Key Factors
Geography Time Property
Environment Locking Mechanism Criminal Profile
Scope

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Scenarios shared by Stakeholders
1. Identify the bike theft hot spots to enable effective crime patrolling.
2. Measure the effectiveness of existing valet and secured storage.
3. Propose a new valet location for phase 3 walk only zone.
4. Explore potential markets through which the stolen bikes are sold.
5. Understand the public opinion about parking safety.
Crime Management, Urban Planning and Change Management

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Bike Theft Hot Spots (1 of 3)
Geography Time Property Environment Locking Mechanism Criminal Profile

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Bike Theft Hot Spots (2 of 3)
Geography Time Property Environment Locking Mechanism Criminal Profile
What time window is targeted over other time windows?
Which bike parking is easily targeted over other parkings?

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Bike Theft Hot Spots (3 of 3)
Geography Time Property Environment Locking Mechanism Criminal Profile
$40,431
$33,679
$32,965
$31,930 $31,161
$28,101
$23,882 $21,986
$19,125
$13,020
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Property Value
Property Value
The value of bikes stolen from 10 buildings account for 40% bike value stolen In 5
years.

14. ©2016 IBM Corporation14 14 February 201714 February 201714
Scenarios shared by Stakeholders
1. Identify the bike theft hot spots to enable effective crime patrolling.
2. Measure the effectiveness of existing valet and secured storage.
3. Propose a new valet location for phase 3 walk only zone.
4. Explore potential markets through which the stolen bikes are sold.
5. Understand the public opinion about parking safety.
Crime Management, Urban Planning and Change Management

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Effectiveness of Existing Valet and
Secured Storage (1 of 3)
Valet and Secured Storage: Map Representation
Noble Science Library (Valet)
Bateman Physical Sciences Center H-Wing
Memorial Union (Valet)
Payne Hall (Secured Storage)

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Effectiveness of Existing Valet and
Secured Storage (2 of 3)
Bike Valet and Secured Storage: Payne Hall and Memorial Union (Setup: Fall 2013)
Row Labels 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1Half 24 19 25 18 22
Payne Hall 8 9 9 8 11
Memorial Union 16 10 16 10 11
2Half 24 15 21 13 24
Payne Hall 15 3 9 6 12
Memorial Union 9 12 12 7 12
Grand Total 48 34 46 31 46
Bike Theft around Payne Hall and Memorial Union

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Effectiveness of Existing Valet and
Secured Storage (3 of 3)
Bike Valet and Secured Storage: Bateman Physical Sciences and Noble Science Library
(Setup: Fall 2014)
Row Labels 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1Half 21 17 37 28 41
Noble Science Library 11 5 13 18 28
Bateman Physical Sciences Center H-Wing 10 12 24 10 13
2Half 26 42 47 67 20
Noble Science Library 9 18 20 47 11
Bateman Physical Sciences Center H-Wing 17 24 27 20 9
Bike Theft around Noble Science Library and Bateman Physical Sciences

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Scenarios shared by Stakeholders
1. Identify the bike theft hot spots to enable effective crime patrolling.
2. Measure the effectiveness of existing valet and secured storage.
3. Propose a new valet location for phase 3 walk only zone.
4. Explore potential markets through which the stolen bikes are sold.
5. Understand the public opinion about parking safety.
Crime Management, Urban Planning and Change Management

19. ©2016 IBM Corporation19 14 February 201714 February 201719
New Valet Proposal (1 of 3)
Rule 1: The valet should at the circumference of walk-only zones
Rule 2: The valet should not be near existing valet or secured storage
Rule 3: The valet should not be near student housing
Rule 4: The bike theft incidents are highest in the valet operation hours
Durham L&L and Hayden Library building met the criteria.
Lyceum valet validation is requested by PTS.
Key criteria for valet selection

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New Valet Proposal (2 of 3)
Top 3 valet location (Building): Rule 1 to Rule 4
Phase 3 walk-only zone
Existing walk-only Zone
Durham L&L (#156)
Hayden Lib.(#129)
Lyceum(#65)
Existing valet and storage parking
Student Housing
06:00 to 18:00
12:00 to 00:00

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New Valet Proposal (3 of 3)
Top 3 valet location (Building): Rule 1 to Rule 4
Phase 3 walk-only zone
Existing walk-only Zone
Existing valet and storage parking
Student Housing
Durham
Hayden Lib.
Lyceum
12:00 to 00:00
06:00 to 18:00

22. ©2016 IBM Corporation22 14 February 201714 February 201722
Scenarios shared by Stakeholders
1. Identify the bike theft hot spots to enable effective crime patrolling.
2. Measure the effectiveness of existing valet and secured storage.
3. Propose a new valet location for phase 3 walk only zone.
4. Explore potential markets through which the stolen bikes are sold.
5. Understand the public opinion about parking safety.
Crime Management, Urban Planning and Change Management

23. ©2016 IBM Corporation23 14 February 201714 February 201723
Potential Markets (1 of 2)
Duration: Feb 9th 2015 to Mar 11th 2015 (AZ Craigslist Bike Sale)
 Multiple bikes are sold with same phone number across various cities in
Arizona.
 Same phone numbers are listed as owners and dealers.

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Potential Markets (2 of 2)
$10 per bike (Lake Havasu Flea Market)
Bike 1
Bike 2
Bike 3

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Scenarios shared by Stakeholders
1. Identify the bike theft hot spots to enable effective crime patrolling.
2. Measure the effectiveness of existing valet and secured storage.
3. Propose a new valet location for phase 3 walk only zone.
4. Explore potential markets through which the stolen bikes are sold.
5. Understand the public opinion about parking safety.
Crime Management, Urban Planning and Change Management

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Public Opinion (1 of 2)
How likely do you think that your bike will be stolen when parked at the campus?
5% 17% 19% 21% 38%
Not likely at all Neutral Not very likely Very likely Somewhat likely
5% 13% 31% 52%
Not locked U-lock, Cable lock Cable lock U-lock
When your bike was stolen, it was locked with :

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Public Opinion (2 of 2)
Safe parking sentiments - Student insights

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Key Insights and Recommendation
S.No. Key Insights Recommendation Owner
1 There is no common field available
to map the PD bike theft crime data
and P&T bike rack management
data.
Include a field in the incident crime reports that maps each
bike theft to nearest ASU Building.
ASU PD
2
Include a field in the rack count management data that maps
each parking to the nearest building.
ASU PTS
3
45% students do not report a bike
theft to the ASU PD. Seasonality in
terms of bike theft is observed
during key admission months (Jan
and Sep).
Introduce a student orientation training to spread do's and
don’ts of effective Bike management at ASU Campus
(incident reporting ease, bike safety measures at campus
and registration process).
ASU PTS
4
There are no regular interlocks/
governance mechanism setup
between ASU PTS and PD.
Initiate regular governance and targeted law enforcement for
buildings with high theft.
ASU PTS/ PD
5
Currently there are no central
measurement and analysis
mechanism of bike theft at ASU.
Introduce a ASU Bike Theft Dashboard. The data of this
dashboard will be used for Urban Planning and Crime
Patrolling decision making.
ASU PTS
6
60% students believe that their bike
will be stolen when parked at the
campus.
Introduce proactive measures to gain student confidence at
ASU Campus. E.g. Camera Installation, undercover
operations (dummy bikes with GPS), craigslist, flee market
etc.
ASU PD

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Follow-up
 These insights were presented to the
Chief of Police and Urban Planning in
Arizona.
 Received a letter of appreciation from the
Chief of Police of Arizona State University
Police Department for assistance in
combating bike theft crime on a campus
of 55,000 students.

30. ©2016 IBM Corporation30 14 February 201714 February 201730
Name: Neeraj Madan
Email Id: neemadan@gmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/neerajmadan
Twitter Id: neemadan
I work with IBM Watson and have over 12 years of experience in diverse areas,
such as Business Analytics, Strategy Consulting, Organization Development,
Remote Infrastructure Management and People Management.

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