Master Builders SA State Budget Breakfast

Darryl Gobbett
Economist, Adviser & Commentator
darrylgobbett@adelaide.on.net
SA Business Conditions and Budget Forecasts
Friday 19 June 2015
Master Builders SA State Budget Breakfast
The Playford Adelaide Hotel
120 North Terrace
Adelaide SA

Disclaimer
o Any advice contained in this presentation is general advice based on the investment merits of the security or
issuer alone without taking into account any person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular
needs.
o The information contained within this presentation was compiled by Darryl Gobbett and he provides no
warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or
recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice by
Darryl Gobbett who assumes no obligation to update this presentation after it has been presented. Except for
any liability which by law cannot be excluded, Darryl Gobbett disclaims all liability (whether in negligence or
otherwise) for any error, inaccuracy in, or omission from the information contained in this document or any
loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person directly or indirectly through relying upon the
information.
o Before making any investment or other decision based on such advice, the recipient must decide whether it is
appropriate to his/her needs or seek specific professional advice.

The Global and National Trends: Implications for SA Business
 Global economy looking better than expected
 Spending, Output and Profits higher than 2007 peaks
 Most major and developing economies growing
 Public Sector deficits shrinking faster than expected – Australia is an exception
 Capital markets recovery continues, perhaps too exuberantly
 Rising view that 2014 Deflation fears were overdone
 Cash Interest rates to stay very low but Bond yields now rising
 Accelerating Pace of Technological, Demographic, Economic, Industrial & Financial Change
 Increasingly severe questioning of what adds value in a business?
 How sustainable is the value added proposition?
 How well equipped are the Board, Management, Labour force, Suppliers, Investors etc
 Is Adaptivity now more important than Strategic Planning?
 How prepared are SA Businesses and Governments?

The Global and National Trends: Implications for SA Business
 2015/16 likely to continue Australia’s recession free growth since 1991
 Sharp drop in commodity prices but likely to have bottomed out
 Impacts on profits, tax and investment
 $A still higher than policy makers want
 In relation to productivity, sense of entitlement, industry costs
 Issue of how the domestic economic and industrial structural change progresses
 Households still big savers and wages growth slowing
 Business non-mining investment not lifting as fast as hoped
 Public Infrastructure, Housing and Exports main contributors to growth
 Low $A helping Tourism and Education
 Interest rates staying very low well into 2016
 Tax mix increasingly seen as problem for growth, productivity and public finances

Global Growth Uneven, Moderate but Continuing
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2015
Over 75c+ of each $1 of global growth is now from Emerging Economies
Output Growth, Inflation Adjusted, % pa
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
United States -2.6 +2.4 +1.8 +2.8 +2.2 +2.4 +3.1 +3.1
Japan -6.3 +4.5 -0.8 +1.4 +1.6 -0.1 +1.0 +1.2
Euro Area -4.1 +2.0 +1.4 -0.7 -0.5 +0.9 +1.5 +1.6
China +9.2 +10.4 +9.2 +7.7 +7.8 +7.4 +6.8 +6.3
India +6.8 +10.1 +6.8 +3.2 +6.9 +7.2 +7.5 +7.5
Indonesia +5.7 +6.2 +6.5 +6.2 +5.3 +5.0 +5.2 +5.5
ASEAN 5 +1.7 +7.0 +4.5 +5.4 +5.2 +4.6 +5.2 +5.3
Brazil -0.6 +7.5 +2.7 +1.0 +2.7 +0.1 -1.0 +1.0
World Output -0.5 +5.1 +3.8 +3.1 +3.4 +3.4 +3.5 +3.8
Inflation: Advanced Economies
Emerging Economies
+0.1
+5.2
+1.5
+6.1
+2.7
+7.2
+2.0
+6.1
+1.4
+5.9
+1.4
+5.1
+0.4
+5.5
+1.4
+4.8
$US 6month LIBOR 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% +0.3% +0.7% +1.9

Overseas Monetary Policies Remain Very Stimulatory
 Aim of most Central banks is to Increase Inflation to 2%
 Cash Rates:
 Financial Repression: Force savers to spend
 European Central Bank and Bank of Japan using Quantitative Easing
 Cash and Bond Rates at record low levels
 Official Cash*: ECB -0.2%; Japan 0.1% Bank of England 0.5%, USA 0.25% *
 10 Year Govt Bonds*: UK 1.89%, Germany 0.63%, France 0.92%, Japan 0.39%,
 Keep retail deposit and loan interest rates very low: USA eg
 Mortgages*: 30 Year fixed 3.92%, variable 3.36%; New car loan 5 years at 2.93%
 *CMA 0.35% (>$50,000), 5 year CD 1.45%, 10 year Bonds 2.136%
 Quantitative Easing
 To continue in Europe and Japan.
 Buying long term public and private debt
 Additional offset to Budget deficit reductions
 Bond rates moving up in anticipation of USA cash rate rise and 2014 overdone fears of
European deflation
P 6
* Wall Street Journal Market Data Centre, 15/5/2015

P 7
$A down more than expected.
But likely to stay higher than RBA or Govt want

The Australian Economy: The Federal Government’s Forecasts
% change, inflation adjusted
(Italicised are DG forecasts)
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15f 15/16f 16/17
Household Consumption 3.1 3.2 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.75 3.25
New Motor Vehicle Sales, m* 1.001 1.03 1.14 1.12 1.2 1.35 1.45
Private Investment - Dwellings 3.0 -3.6 -0.1 5.1 6.5 6.5 4.5
No. of Private Dwellings Started (‘000)* 154 141 159 178 200 215 220
Business Investment – Mining
Business Investment – Non Mining
34.9
3.2
74.7
1.7
13.6
-9.7
-7.0
-3.7
-15.5
2.0
-25.5
4.0
-30.5
7.5
Private Final Demand 3 6.2 2.8 0.9 1.25 1.25 2.25
Public Final Demand 3.4 2.3 -1.3 1.6 1.25 1.5 1.5
Source: Australian Government 2015/16 Budget Paper No. 1
* DG Forecasts

Influence of Commodity Prices on Profits
Source: ABS Cat 5206, Australian National Accounts Mar Qtr 2015, 3/6/2015

Net Worth has improved again
But Households likely to remain Big Savers
Source: Reserve Bank Chart Pack May 2015
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack June 2015

Spending and Borrowing likely to be in line with Income growth
Source: Reserve Bank Chart Pack May 2015
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack June 2015

The Australian Economy: The Federal Government’s Forecasts
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15f 15/16f 16/17f
Consumer Prices, % change to June qtr 3.6 1.2 2.4 3.0 1.75 2.5 2.5
Wage Price Index, % change to June qtr 3.8 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.75
Terms of Trade, % change +20.6 +0.4 -9.8 -3.7 -12.25 -8.5 0.75
Current Account Deficit
-$billion
-% of GDP
43.7
3.1
49.3
3.3
59.0
3.9
48.7
3.1
48
3
58
3.5
48
2.75
Source: Australian Government 2015/16 Budget Paper No. 1

RBA Forecasts for Inflation and Growth
- $A still higher than earlier expected
- Inflation to lower end of the 2-3% range
Source: RBA May 2015 Statement on Monetary Policy
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy May 2015

Domestic Inflation and Inflation Expectations Low,
Overseas factors Dampening Impacts of Lower $A
Source: Reserve Bank Chart Pack May 2015Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack June 2015

Markets Expecting one more Cash Rate Cut

Longer Term Rates at cycle lows. TDs could still go lower.

The South Australian Outlook
 Small, Regional Economy: 1.7 million people
 Smaller than Western Sydney or Brisbane, Irrelevant nationally
 Population older & ageing faster, sicker, less educated or skilled
 Housing, retail, tax base, attitudes, national representation
 No Exports, No growth
 Industry structure and policy makers still adapting from 1960s, let alone for 21st C challenges
 No private sector employment growth since 2010
 More international competition and More opportunities
 Public finances rely on Federal Support
 Lower per capita income, slower population growth
 Large Public Sector, Higher taxes, High Deficits & Growing Debt for decades
 Large and Low Productivity Public Sector, High Deficits, Increasing Tax Burden & Growing Debt
 ALP sees big public sector and high taxes as politically acceptable
 Liberals not a small government party
 Likely less support from Federal Govt and Other States
 Don’t criticise the Government but it is starting to recognize change is needed
 Royal Commission on Nuclear Fuel Cycle is a beginning

Sources of Employment Change by Sector

Where we are headed: SA Population Projections

Implications for the Economy and Business
o Prime working age population 20–59 years to rise 37,200 to 2021 (0.4% pa)
• Assumes Net Overseas Immigration of 12,000 pa, ie 120,000 to 2021
• If we slow migration, Working Age population falls over next decade
• To get your businesses to grow you will need:
• Increased workforce participation, ie more old people and females working
• Participation of Males is trending down: late 70s peak 80% to current 68%
• Females has risen from late 70s 45% to current 56%
• Ongoing higher productivity growth – recently flat to lower nationally
• Increasing overseas sourced workers and outsourcing
• Ageing population
• By 2030 those over 60 will exceed those 0 – 19, or 20 – 39, or 40 – 59
• Likely bigger market for Last Home Buyers than First Home buyers
• Land, Staffing, Training, Investment, Land and Cost issues for institutional aged care
• Health care issues for Baby Boomers wanting to stay mobile longer
• Education, Entertainment, Employment, Politics, Tax, Travel
• More expected of the public sector but Boomers not willing to pay

Metropolitan Home Prices Flat, Activity Should Lift
Auction clearance rates
March 2015 61%
Dec 2014 59%
Sept 2014 66%
June 2014 63%
March 2014 61%
March 2013 55%
March 2012 41%
March 2011 48%
March 2010 64%
For 2014
•Employment flat, population to grow
•Interest Rates on hold
•Vacancy rates should steady
•High land costs continue
•Funding constraints on investment housing
•Dominance of the big banks impacting competition
•First Home Buyer Affordability and overall confidence
are the big issues

Residential Building Activity Needs the First Home Buyers to Return

Could be Some Loan Size Fatigue for FHB

SA Budget: Priorities, Themes & Issues
o Quotes from the Treasurer’s Budget Speech
“Most comprehensive state tax reform in South Australia’s history“
“Jobs are the centre piece”
“Our tax reform package is about rewarding activity, the doers, the risk takers, the small business owners,
entrepreneurs, our miners and explorers, the start-ups, new and long established family businesses, our farmers and
primary producers, our retailers, our developers, our service industry, corporates large and small and most
importantly our manufacturers.
Every single business and enterprise in South Australia whether, big or small, can benefit from these changes.
This government’s tax reform, stands our state out as a beacon for business investment.“
o Big Picture tax reform is too hard and to be part of National Tax Reform
• Payroll Tax, Online gambling tax
• No annual land tax on family home and No road tolls
o No mention of Budget Deficits in the Speech
• GST relativity changes and national economic recovery are the saviours

o Tax changes are broad but not deep
o From 1/7/2015
• Abolish Share Duty
• Abolish Stamp Duty on non-real property transfers
• Expand stamp duty concession for exploration tenements to include retention tenements
• Expand eligibility criteria for corporate reconstruction relief
• Abolish River Murray Levy and Hindmarsh Island Bridge Levy
• Extend small business payroll tax rebate to 2015/16
• Increase land tax thresholds from $316,000 to $323,000.
o From date of assent of changes to Stamp Duties Act
• Expand stamp duty exemption for farms transferred between family members
• Extend definition of family groups to include defacto couples
• Provide exemptions to replace a number of ex-gratia stamp duty relief schemes
o From 1 July 2016 reduce by 1/3 stamp duty on non-residential real property transfers with further
1/3 reductions from 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018
o From 1 July 2018, abolish stamp duty on:
• Non-residential real property transfers
• Transfers of units in unit trusts
• Transfers of mining leases and tenements

o Targeted economic stimulus funding including Spending on attracting tourists, investors and conventioners
o Upgrade arts centres in Whyalla, Port Pire, Mt Gambier and Renmark
o Electric and Hybrid cars to be preferred CBD mode of transport
o Northern Economic Plan
• Northern Food Park - $2m
• Ageing social housing stock renewal - $25m
• Upgrade schools and children’s centres - $10m
• New road for Gawler East housing development - $55m
o $10.8 b investment program over 4 years – mostly already committed
• $260.8m on health capital works new funding
o Addition and bringing forward funds for Housing Trust refurbishment and new builds - $65m
o New cost of living concessions for pensioners and low income earners - $36m pa
o Children at risk – reforms spending

Expectations of National Recovery Central to Deficit Reductions for GST increases
SA GSP continues to decline relative to rest of Australia
Sources:
SA Govt 2015/16 Budget Statement Paper No 3
Aust Govt 2015/16 Budget Paper No.1

Now Surpluses as Far as the Eye can see!?
Source: SA Govt Budget Statement Budget Paper No.3 2015/16

How is this So?
Large Dividend received
from the Motor Accident
Commission ($852.7m)
Otherwise Net
Operating
Balance would
have been in
deficit by
around $850m
Above Budget Employee expenses
as FTE grew instead of falling.
Depreciation expenses fell due to
realignment of depreciation and
amortisation budgets!!

Adverse Impact on Unfunded Super of very low interest rates

Main Revenue Sources: Taxes ($m)
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16b 16/17f 17/18f 18/19f
Payroll
Growth %
951
5.7%
1,010
6.2%
1,077
6.6%
1,079
0.2%
1,114
3.2%
1,172 bud
1,184
6.3%
1,253
5.8%
1,323
5.6%
1,388
4.9%
Conveyances
Growth %
794
0.5%
686
-13.6%
778
13.4%
793
1.9%
907
14.4%
925 bud
910
0.3%
932
2.4%
934
0.2%
948
1.5%
Land Tax (Private)
Growth %
352
-1.4%
360
2.3%
347
-3.6%
345
-0.6%
347
0.6%
352 bud
358
3.2%
372
3.9%
384
3.2%
395
2.9%
ESL on Fixed Property
Growth %
99
6.5%
103
4.0%
103
0%
104
1.0%
190
82.7%
190 bud
207
8.9%
211
1.9%
218
3.3%
223
2.3%
Gambling 404 411 422 388 388
404 bud
408 419 442 451
Insurances 371 399 429 435 446 441 457 475 493
Motor Vehicles
Growth %
495
6.7%
509
2.8%
545
7.1%
567
7.2%
597
5.3%
618
3.5%
637
3.1%
658
3.3%
680
3.3%
Other Taxes 365 376 403 374 405 417 432 446 460
Total Taxation 3,831 3,854 4,104 4,085 4,394 4,543 4,713 4,880 5,038

o Payroll Tax:
• To grow around 3% pa in real terms
• Employment growth of 1% pa and Wages growth 2-3% pa
• Bracket creep on nominal wages growth is biggest contributor
o Property Taxes
• Impacted by phasing out of duty on transfers of non-residential real property
• Property values expected to grow broadly in line with long term growth in nominal household incomes
• Land values relevant to Land Tax: 4% for 16/17, 3.3% for 17/18 and 3% for 18/19
• Property transfers expected to grow “moderately” and return to long term trends
o Gambling affected by slower than expected gaming revenue.
o Insurance taxes impacted by slower than expected growth in general insurance premiums
o Motor vehicle taxes growing about in line with population
• Assisted by increased share of 3 month registrations
• Stamp duties lower on transfers as new and used car prices fall
Tax Forecast Issues

Tax Effort
You will all be pleased to know
“ In terms of tax revenue per
capita, South Australia is a
relatively low tax jurisdiction…”
and this will improve further
with the tax reforms
announced

Main Revenue Sources: Other ($m)
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15e 15/16 bud 16/17est 17/18 est 18/19 est
Current Grants
GST Revenue Grants
% change
4,296.1
+6.0%
4,239.2
-1.3%
4,463.1
+5.3%
4,618.2
+3.5%
4,986.3
+8.0%
5,517.5
+10.7%
6,077.0
+10.1%
6,460.2
+6.3%
6,648.4
+2.9%
National Partnership Grants 571.8 726.6 592.5 563.5 555.8 464.8 446.8 369.8 613.6
Specific Purpose Grants 1407.7 1,430.8 1,476.2 1,485.7 1,643.9 1,768.6 1,850.8 1,914.4 1,994.4
S.P. Grants for on-passing 735.8 863.3 689.1 729.6 770.1 815.1 866.3 908.9 948.8
Other Cont & Grants 164.4 157.1 153.4 245.1 141.8 142.1 143.1 144.0 144.7
Capital Grants
National Partnership Grants 734.7 995.8 156.8 68.8 100.0 348.4 448.6 325.9 184.6
Specific Purpose Grants 115.7 117.4 118.9 103.6 93.3 93.9 94.7 95.5 96.3
Other Capital Cont & Grants 221.3 68.5 37.4 40.1 11.5 11.8 8.1 8.1 8.1
Total Grants 8,247.5 8,601.7 7,870.9 7,854.6 8,302.8 9,162.3 9,935.3 10,226.7 10,638.9

GST Relativity Update
Increased GST share for SA from 2015
Review. SA now gets about $1.5b more
pa than if distributed purely on a per
capita basis.

Main Revenue Sources: Sales of Goods and Services($m)

Main Revenue Sources: Other ($m)
Royalties below budget in
2014/15 due to lower than
expected iron ore and oil and
natural gas prices.

Spending by Function ($m)

Investment Spending ($m)
$10.8 billion to be invested over next 4
years:
• $3.3b in health – mainly buying the
new RAH
• $1.4b on roads: mainly North-South
Road corridor
• $353m on public transport
• $216m on education facilities
• $197m on Festival Centre precinct
• $1.7b on water infrastructure
• This seems to be SA Water’s
normal capital spend

Staffing General Government
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Employee Expenses $m
Growth %
6,400
2.9%
6,770
5.0%
6,930 Bud
7,105 actual
+4.9%
7,155 Bud
7,258 actual
+2.2%
7,268 Bud
7,425 actual
+2.3%
7,271 (14/15)
7,512 (15/16)
+1.2%
7,347 (14/15)
7,609 (15/16)
1.3%
7,554 (14/15)
7,804 (15/16)
+2.6%
Employee Nos FTE 30 June
Growth %
80,254 82,214
+2.4%
81,731
-0.6%
81,161
-0.3%
80,018 14/15b
81,665 15/16b
+0.6%
78,214 14/15b
80,146 15/16b
-1.9%
77,619 14/15b
79,060 15/16b
-1.4%
77,437 14/15b
79,024 15/16b
0%
At 30 June 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Employees in SA Public Sector FTE 69,670 76,720 78,211 79,715 81,270 83,885 84,900 84,882 85,727 86,257 85,371
Employee Persons Per 1000 SA
Population
55.1 58.5 59.8 60.3 61.0 62.5 62.2 61.9 62.6 62.4 61.3
Employee Persons Per 1000
Employed South Australians
121 122 124 125 124 128 127 125 129 129 128
Ratio of Public Sector Full Time
Adult Ordinary Time Earnings to
Private Sector Full Time Adult
Ordinary Time Earnings (May)
Victoria
123%
113.3%
119.5%
111.5%
120.4%
111.3%
118.4%
108.2%
117.1%
107.3%
115.4%
108.9%
118.6%
111.3%
118.3%
114.8%
122.1%
114.6%
120.9%
116.5%
117.4%
120.4% (Nov 14)
116.1
116.8% (Nov 14)
Employees in SA Public Sector
Source: SA Public Sector Workforce Information June 2014 Table 2, ABS cat.6302.0

Ongoing Fall In Financial Net Worth

Economic Forecasts: South Australia
Retail Turnover % (Nominal,
year total)
7.9 1.7 0.6 1 -0.4 3 4.3 4 4
New Motor Vehicle Sales
(000)
59,400 66,080 62,836 65,340 70,268 70,074 70,500 73,000 73,000
Business Investment, %,
Current Prices
- Plant & Equipment 0.1 1.7 -1.5 9 -17.5 -2.2 1 -8 0
- Non Residential
Construction
18.7 -6.8 17.6 13.5 15.1 -1.3 2 0 -15
- Cultivated Bio Resources &
Intel Property
-7.4 -2.7 12.4 6.8 4.9 3.5 0 4 4
Public Investment 33.6 54.9 -12.5 -5.7 -2.5 -3 -25 15 10
Unemployment Rate % (June,
Trend), SA Govt F'cast year
average
5.6 5.4 5.3 5.6 6.3 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.5
Actuals ABS; forecasts DG
0.7
3
10,365 10,500 10,500
0.3 -0.4 -0.6 1 1
2016/17f
1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5
0.8 0.7
8,187
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Employment Growth % (Year
to June, Trend)
0.7 1.2 1.6 -0.6
2 34.6 6.7
Population Growth % (Yr to
June)
1.3 1.1 0.8 1 0.9 0.9
Private Avg Weekly Earn %
(FTAOT, (Yr to May)
7.4 0.7 4.5 3.2
2013/14 2014/15e
0.9
2015/16f
10,132
GSP(Total Output) % (Real) 2.3 1.1 2.4 1.5
Private Dwelling
Commencements
11,676 11,061 10,058 8,653

Business Confidence in SA
Sensis Small and Medium Business Index, March qtr 2015 (Interviewed March 2 to April 9)

SA Firms’ Expectations are Improving off a very low Base
Sensis Small and Medium Business Index, March qtr 2015

South Australian Growth: Where from and to?
Gross Value Added, ABS Cat 5220.0
1989/90 -
1999/00
1999/00 -
2005/06
2005/06 -
2013/14
2013/14 Share
of State Gross
Value Added
excluding
Dwellings,
Current Prices
Health care and social assistance 3.1% 3.9% 3.2% 10.1% Supportive Demographics
Manufacturing 1.7% -1.3% -0.1% 9.1% Tough, shrinking, changing
Financial and insurance services 3.7% 3.2% 5.0% 8.4% Oligopoly, funds management
Construction 2.9% 5.1% 4.7% 8.4% Housing, public infrastructure
Public administration and safety 3.6% 3.2% 1.8% 7.1% Slowing further on Budget restraints
Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.5% 7.2% 7.2% 6.1% Overseas demand lifting further
Professional, scientific and technical services 2.9% 4.0% 4.5% 5.9% Change, Outsourcing, Regulation
Education and training 1.9% 1.4% 1.8% 5.9% Should lift on overseas demand with lower $A
Retail trade 3.3% 4.5% 2.4% 5.7% Growing but changing
Transport, postal and warehousing 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 5.6% Growth with online buying, inbound tourism
Wholesale trade 2.8% 3.4% 3.1% 4.8% As per Retail Trade but slower
Electricity, gas, water and waste services -1.3% 4.4% 0.8% 4.4% Waste services main growth area
Mining 1.8% 1.0% 6.5% 4.1% Increasing exports. Investment to rise in 3-4 years
Average of Annual Rates, inflation
adjusted

Summary
o Budget outlook saved by increased GST relativities
• Recognition of economic weakness now and to come
o Tax changes are welcome but hardly scale of what was expected
• Lack of recognition of cost to employment and profits of Payroll Tax
• Most of SA’s taxes unlikely to provide real growth
• Dependence on GST and kindliness of other States and Feds is a risk
o Spending
• Increasing rigidity with growing real spending on Health and Education
• Public service employment continues to grow
• Patterns of spending reducing flexibility and capacity for tax reform and industry support
o Risk of Credit rating being cut.
• Being saved only by Federal Govt backing
o The SA economy is struggling with structural and cyclical changes
• The focus has to be outward, on being more competitive and adaptive and on strongly lifting productivity
• Budget not brave enough on those issues

Master Builders SA State Budget Breakfast

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