Rodman renshaw report on amln 5 14-12

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN)
®
COMPANY UPDATE Michael G. King, Jr.
212-430-1794
mking@rodm.com
LIFE SCIENCES

May 14, 2012 Market Underperform / Speculative
Risk
Bydureon Posts Flat NRx Market Share, While GLP-1 TRx Grow Over 5% Sequentially
Updated GLP-1 Rx data for the week ending May 4th. Wolters-Kluwer
MARKET DATA 5/11/2012
reported that there were 3,332 new starts (NRx) on Bydureon for the
Price $25.86 week of April 28th to May 4th (week 12 of the launch). On an absolute
Exchange NASDAQ basis, new starts were up 3.4% from the previous week’s total of 3,224.
Target Price $22.00 However, Bydureon NRx market shares was flat at 11.0%, as the entire
52 Wk Hi - Low $26.87 - $8.03
GLP-1 class had its largest sequential rise in NRx in more than two
Market Cap(MM) $4,211.4
EV(MM) $5,581.0
months, rising to 30,388 NRx from 29,220 the previous week. This is
Shares Out (MM) 162.9 also an all-time high for the class in terms of NRx.
Public Mkt Float (MM) 1,617.8
Avg. Daily Vol 4,123,688
NRx for the overall exenatide franchise rose again for the third
Short Interest 10,496,372
consecutive week. Exenatide NRx grew 3.6% this week, building upon
BALANCE SHEET METRICS last week’s of 3.8% to rise to 13,746 NRx. Exenatide NRx market share
Cash (MM) $204.1 rose dipped marginally to 45.2% from 45.4%. Table 1 details the
LTD (MM) $714.8 comparison of NRx results for the week compared to the 4-week moving
Total Debt/Capital NA averages prior to the launch. Figures 1 and 2 detail the NRx figures and
Cash/Share $1.39 market share.
Book Value(MM) NA
Book Value/Share $0.05
Exenatide total Rx (TRx) market share rises above ~45%. We
EARNINGS DATA ($) recommend investors focus on total Rx (TRx) as the key metric, as it
FY - Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E relates directly to revenues, to judge the exenatide franchise. Bydureon
Q1 (Mar) (0.27) (0.26) (0.66)A posted TRx of 5,155, up 8.6% from last week’s total of 4,746. TRx
Q2 (Jun) (0.31) (0.22) (0.51) market share rose modestly to 6.9% from 6.8%. Byetta TRx was 28,314
Q3 (Sep) (0.35) (0.09) (0.44) up 7% from last week’s results of to 26,379, however, still well below the
Q4 (Dec) (0.13) (3.16) (0.40) high of ~30,000 weekly Byetta TRx earlier this year. TRx market share
Full Year EPS (1.06) (3.73) (2.03)
for the exenatide franchise rose to 44.9% from 44.2%, as the franchise
Revenue (MM) 669.0 650.7 624.9
built upon last week’s gains. TRx for the entire GLP-1 class was 74,481,
up 5.9% from 70,363, and the highest total weekly total since the launch
VALUATION METRICS of Byetta. Table 2 details the comparison of TRx results for the week
Price/Earnings NM NM NM compared to the 4-week moving averages prior to the launch. We
EV/Revenue 8.3x 8.6x 8.9x compare the Bydureon launch to Victoza on the following page.
Y/Y EPS Growth 251.9% NM
EV/Sales
Bydureon fails to gain any ground on Victoza launch. In order to
INDICES compare the relative launches of Bydureon and Victoza, we pulled the
weekly Rx statistics from Victoza two years ago (Figure 3 and Table 5).
DJIA 12,820.6
SP-500 1,353.4
Despite the GLP-1 market growing some 20% in the two years since the
NASDAQ 2,616.0 launch of Victoza, the absolute NRx (3,332) generated by Bydureon is
NBI 1,313.5 41% lower than that achieved by Victoza (5,686) at the same point in the
respective launches.
1 Year Price History

30
25
20
We maintain our Market Underperform rating and a $22 target. We
15 continue to believe our skepticism is justified given the company’s history
10
5
of poor execution and the most recent quarter’s fair-to-middling (in our
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2
2012
50
opinion) results. We continue to believe the exenatide franchise is
40
30
unwanted by those who already have a presence in the diabetes space
20
10 and a sub-optimal set of assets for those companies to gain a presence
0
Created by BlueMatrix in the diabetes/metabolic disease space. In our opinion, AMLN
management would have done well to accept the BMY offer of $22 per
share; justifying our price target on the shares.

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 8 - 9 of this report.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. May 14, 2012

Figure 1. NRx Absolute Figures by Week

Figure 2. NRx Market Share by Week

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH 2


Figure 3. Comparison of Victoza and Bydureon Launches (Absolute NRx)

Figure 4. Absolute TRx by Week



Table 1. Changes in NRx from Week Ending 5/4/12 Vs. Moving Avgs. Prior to Bydureon Approval

4-week
Moving
Changes in NRx 5/4/2012 Variance
Averages
1/27/2012

BYDUREON 3,332 3,332
BYETTA 11,412 10,414 (998)
Total Exenetide Franchise 11,412 13,746 2,334
VICTOZA 15,063 16,642 1,579
TOTAL GLP-1 New Rx 26,475 30,388 3,913

Market Share % of NRx
BYDUREON 11.0% 11.0%
BYETTA 43.1% 34.3% -8.8%
Total Exenetide % 43.1% 45.2% 2.1%
VICTOZA 56.9% 54.8% -2.1%

Table 2. Changes in TRx from Week Ending 5/4/12 Vs. Moving Avgs. Prior to Bydureon Approval

4-week
Moving
Changes in TRx 5/4/2012 Variance
Averages
1/27/2012

BYDUREON 5,155 5,155
BYETTA 28,429 28,314 (115)
Total Exenetide Franchise 28,429 33,469 5,041
VICTOZA 36,009 41,012 5,004
TOTAL GLP-1 Rx 64,437 74,481 10,044

Market Share % of TRx
BYDUREON 6.9% 6.9%
BYETTA 43.8% 38.0% -5.8%
Total Exenetide % 43.8% 44.9% 1.1%
VICTOZA 56.2% 55.1% -1.1%

Upcoming Milestones

Product Event Timing
Corporate Annual meeting and proxy fight May 24, 2012
Bydureon Secure EU partner 2012
Metreleptin Potential EU orphan designation 1H12
Exenatide suspension Once-weekly Phase III initiation 2Q12/3Q12
Bydureon Launch pen/device 4Q12/1Q13
Exenatide suspension Once-monthly Phase III initiation 2013



Table 3. New Prescription Starts (NRx) for the GLP-1 Market by Week

Total New Rx (NRx)
Product 1/6/2012 1/13/2012 1/20/2012 1/27/2012 2/3/2012 2/10/2012 2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BYDUREON
TOTAL BYDUREON Rx 1 15 386 894 1,275 1,845 2,073 2,467 2,719 2,940 2,801 2,963 3,224 3,332
Sequential Growth 2473.33% 131.61% 42.62% 44.71% 12.36% 19.01% 10.21% 8.13% -4.73% 5.78% 8.81% 3.35%
4-wk Moving Avg. 134 324 643 1,100 1,522 1,915 2,276 2,550 2,732 2,856 2,982 3,080

BYETTA
10MCG/0.04 7,866 8,353 7,915 8,106 8,854 8,047 7,485 7,556 7,517 7,911 7,336 7,148 7,433 7,255 6,762 6,841 7,055 7,259
5MCG/0.02 3,198 3,403 3,394 3,413 3,569 3,465 3,199 3,158 3,274 3,486 3,189 3,173 3,141 3,089 2,872 2,974 2,987 3,155
TOTAL BYETTA Rx 11,064 11,756 11,309 11,519 12,423 11,512 10,684 10,714 10,791 11,397 10,525 10,321 10,574 10,344 9,634 9,815 10,042 10,414
Sequential Growth 18.78% 6.25% -3.80% 1.86% 7.85% -7.33% -7.19% 0.28% 0.72% 5.62% -7.65% -1.94% 2.45% -2.18% -6.86% 1.88% 2.31% 3.70%
4-wk Moving Avg. 10,550 10,745 10,861 11,412 11,752 11,691 11,535 11,333 10,925 10,897 10,857 10,759 10,704 10,441 10,218 10,092 9,959 9,976

TOTAL EXENETIDE FRANCHISE 11,064 11,756 11,309 11,519 12,424 11,527 11,070 11,608 12,066 13,242 12,598 12,788 13,293 13,284 12,435 12,778 13,266 13,746
Sequential Growth 18.78% 6.25% -3.80% 1.86% 7.86% -7.22% -3.96% 4.86% 3.95% 9.75% -4.86% 1.51% 3.95% -0.07% -6.39% 2.76% 3.82% 3.62%
4-wk Moving Avg. 10,550 10,745 10,861 11,412 11,752 11,695 11,635 11,657 11,568 11,997 12,379 12,674 12,980 12,991 12,950 12,948 12,941 13,056
~
VICTOZA
2-PACK 5,010 5,301 5,214 5,162 5,615 5,389 5,303 5,334 5,431 5,711 5,381 5,467 5,356 5,306 5,527 5,719 5,539 5,654
3-PACK 9,626 9,944 9,927 10,067 10,472 10,439 10,382 9,958 10,330 11,012 10,101 10,417 10,422 10,247 9,944 10,484 10,415 10,988
TOTAL VICTOZA Rx 14,636 15,245 15,141 15,229 16,087 15,828 15,685 15,292 15,761 16,723 15,482 15,884 15,778 15,553 15,471 16,203 15,954 16,642
Sequential Growth 19.12% 4.16% -0.68% 0.58% 5.63% -1.61% -0.90% -2.51% 3.07% 6.10% -7.42% 2.60% -0.67% -1.43% -0.53% 4.73% -1.54% 4.31%
4-wk Moving Avg. 13,899 14,148 14,327 15,063 15,426 15,571 15,707 15,723 15,642 15,865 15,815 15,963 15,967 15,674 15,672 15,751 15,795 16,068

TOTAL GLP-1 NRx 25,700 27,001 26,450 26,748 28,511 27,355 26,755 26,900 27,827 29,965 28,080 28,672 29,071 28,837 27,906 28,981 29,220 30,388
Sequential Growth 18.97% 5.06% -2.04% 1.13% 6.59% -4.05% -2.19% 0.54% 3.45% 7.68% -6.29% 2.11% 1.39% -0.80% -3.23% 3.85% 0.82% 4.00%
4-wk Moving Avg. 24,448 24,893 25,188 26,475 27,178 27,266 27,342 27,380 27,209 27,862 28,193 28,636 28,947 28,665 28,622 28,699 28,736 29,124

% of NRx by Product
Product 1/6/2012 1/13/2012 1/20/2012 1/27/2012 2/3/2012 2/10/2012 2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BYDUREON 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 3.3% 4.6% 6.2% 7.4% 8.6% 9.4% 10.2% 10.0% 10.2% 11.0% 11.0%
BYETTA 43.1% 43.5% 42.8% 43.1% 43.6% 42.1% 39.9% 39.8% 38.8% 38.0% 37.5% 36.0% 36.4% 35.9% 34.5% 33.9% 34.4% 34.3%
Total Exenetide % 43.1% 43.5% 42.8% 43.1% 43.6% 42.1% 41.4% 43.2% 43.4% 44.2% 44.9% 44.6% 45.7% 46.1% 44.6% 44.1% 45.4% 45.2%
VICTOZA 56.9% 56.5% 57.2% 56.9% 56.4% 57.9% 58.6% 56.8% 56.6% 55.8% 55.1% 55.4% 54.3% 53.9% 55.4% 55.9% 54.6% 54.8%



Table 4. Total Prescriptions (TRx) for the GLP-1 Market by Week

GLP-1 Agonist - Total Rx (TRx)
Product 1/6/2012 1/13/2012 1/20/2012 1/27/2012 2/3/2012 2/10/2012 2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BYDUREON
TOTAL BYDUREON Rx 1 15 387 903 1,284 1,881 2,235 2,797 3,291 3,702 3,775 4,247 4,746 5,155
Sequential Growth 133.33% 42.19% 46.50% 18.82% 25.15% 17.66% 12.49% 1.97% 12.50% 11.75% 8.62%
4-wk Moving Avg. Bydureon 134 327 647 1,114 1,576 2,049 2,551 3,006 3,391 3,754 4,118 4,481

BYETTA
10MCG/0.04 22,680 21,602 21,029 20,736 23,378 21,115 20,663 20,323 21,902 22,357 20,244 20,090 21,126 21,428 19,637 19,519 20,003 21,345
5MCG/0.02 7,145 6,893 6,911 6,718 7,446 6,982 6,729 6,539 7,107 7,222 6,629 6,666 6,864 6,887 6,119 6,330 6,376 6,969
TOTAL BYETTA Rx 29,825 28,495 27,940 27,454 30,824 28,097 27,392 26,862 29,009 29,579 26,873 26,756 27,990 28,315 25,756 25,849 26,379 28,314
Sequential Growth 10.27% -4.46% -1.95% -1.74% 12.28% -8.85% -2.51% -1.93% 7.99% 1.96% -9.15% -0.44% 4.61% 1.16% -9.04% 0.36% 2.05% 7.34%
4-wk Moving Avg. 28,465 28,504 28,327 28,429 28,678 28,579 28,442 28,294 27,840 28,211 28,081 28,054 27,800 27,484 27,204 26,978 26,575 26,575

TOTAL EXENETIDE FRANCHISE 29,825 28,495 27,940 27,454 30,825 28,112 27,779 27,765 30,293 31,460 29,108 29,553 31,281 32,017 29,531 30,096 31,125 33,469
Sequential Growth 10.27% -4.46% -1.95% -1.74% 12.28% -8.80% -1.18% -0.05% 9.10% 3.85% -7.48% 1.53% 5.85% 2.35% -7.76% 1.91% 3.42% 7.53%
4-wk Moving Avg. 28,465 28,504 28,327 28,429 28,679 28,583 28,543 28,620 28,487 29,324 29,657 30,104 30,351 30,490 30,596 30,731 30,692 31,055

VICTOZA
2-PACK 12,317 12,211 12,100 11,831 12,815 12,625 12,277 12,446 12,762 13,557 12,636 12,822 12,974 12,995 12,935 13,327 13,097 13,709
3-PACK 24,536 23,842 23,804 23,393 24,900 25,045 24,585 24,212 25,490 26,407 25,209 25,399 25,966 26,030 25,180 26,112 26,141 27,303
TOTAL VICTOZA Rx 36,853 36,053 35,904 35,224 37,715 37,670 36,862 36,658 38,252 39,964 37,845 38,221 38,940 39,025 38,115 39,439 39,238 41,012
Sequential Growth 11.49% -2.17% -0.41% -1.89% 7.07% -0.12% -2.14% -0.55% 4.35% 4.48% -5.30% 0.99% 1.88% 0.22% -2.33% 3.47% -0.51% 4.52%
4-wk Moving Avg. 35,358 35,510 35,466 36,009 36,224 36,628 36,868 37,226 37,361 37,934 38,180 38,571 38,743 38,508 38,575 38,880 38,954 39,451

TOTAL GLP-1 Rx 66,678 64,548 63,844 62,678 68,540 65,782 64,641 64,423 68,545 71,424 66,953 67,774 70,221 71,042 67,646 69,535 70,363 74,481
Sequential Growth 10.94% -3.19% -1.09% -1.83% 9.35% -4.02% -1.73% -0.34% 6.40% 4.20% -6.26% 1.23% 3.61% 1.17% -4.78% 2.79% 1.19% 5.85%
4-wk Moving Avg. 63,823 64,014 63,793 64,437 64,903 65,211 65,410 65,847 65,848 67,258 67,836 68,674 69,093 68,998 69,171 69,611 69,647 70,506

% of TRx by Product
Product 1/6/2012 1/13/2012 1/20/2012 1/27/2012 2/3/2012 2/10/2012 2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BYDUREON 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.60% 1.40% 1.87% 2.63% 3.34% 4.13% 4.69% 5.21% 5.58% 6.11% 6.75% 6.92%
BYETTA 44.7% 44.1% 43.8% 43.8% 45.0% 42.7% 42.4% 41.7% 42.3% 41.4% 40.1% 39.5% 38.6% 39.9% 38.1% 37.2% 37.5% 38.0%
Total Exenetide % 44.7% 44.1% 43.8% 43.8% 45.0% 42.7% 43.0% 43.1% 44.2% 44.0% 43.5% 43.6% 43.3% 45.1% 43.7% 43.3% 44.2% 44.9%
VICTOZA 55.3% 55.9% 56.2% 56.2% 55.0% 57.3% 57.0% 56.9% 55.8% 56.0% 56.5% 56.4% 56.8% 54.9% 56.3% 56.7% 55.8% 55.1%



Table 5. Comparison of Bydureon and Victoza Launches by NRx

NRx by Week Since Launch
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012
Bydureon 386 894 1,275 1,845 2,073 2,467 2,719 2,940 2,801 2,963 3,224 3,332
% Sequential Growth 131.6% 42.6% 44.7% 12.4% 19.0% 10.2% 8.1% -4.7% 5.8% 8.8% 3.3%
2/19/2010 2/26/2010 3/5/2010 3/12/2010 3/19/2010 3/26/2010 4/2/2010 4/9/2010 4/16/2010 4/23/2010 4/30/2010 4/30/2010
Victoza 411 1,057 1,465 2,234 2,540 3,153 3,605 3,809 4,346 4,742 5,214 5,686
% Sequential Growth 157.2% 38.6% 52.5% 13.7% 24.1% 14.3% 5.7% 14.1% 9.1% 10.0% 9.1%

Bydureon Performance Relative to Victoza -15.4% -13.0% -17.4% -18.4% -21.8% -24.6% -22.8% -35.5% -37.5% -38.2% -41.4%



RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM: Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potential
return and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured on a
RELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potential
movement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject to
exogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accounts
for the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerations.
Potential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic value
weighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT
q
Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all the
common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.
q
Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index comprised
of all the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.
q
Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of all
the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.
RISK ASSESSMENT
q
Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities is
exceptionally volatile.
q
Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volatile
than the general market.
q
Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-line
with movements in the general market.

Rating and Price Target History for: Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN) as of 05-11-2012

01/05/12 04/27/12
I:MU:$8 MU:$22

30

25

20

15

10

5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2
2010 2011 2012

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY
Distribution of Ratings Table
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
Market Outperform(MO) 73 62.39% 10 13.70%
Market Perform(MP) 28 23.93% 3 10.71%
Market Underperform(MU) 6 5.13% 0 0.00%
Under Review(UR) 10 8.55% 3 30.00%
Total 117 100% 16 100%

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of
securities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of its


affiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Michael G. King, Jr., hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject company(ies) and its (their) securities.
None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc.
(including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Apr 30 2012 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Amylin
Pharmaceuticals Inc..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc., of which the research
analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.
The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific
investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a
substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.
The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. for any investment banking services within twelve
months before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within
three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisory
board member of Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc..

The Firm does make a market in Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The closing prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of May 11 2012.
Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc., please
call (212) 356-0500.
Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or
the solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not
guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performance
is no guarantee of future results.


Rodman renshaw report on amln 5 14-12

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Rodman renshaw report on amln 5 14-12