DSP BlackRock World Agriculture Fund -
An open ended Fund of Funds Scheme investing in Agricultural companies through International funds
This Open-ended Fund of Funds Scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking* :
1. Long-term capital growth
2. Investment in units of overseas funds which invest primarily in equity and equity related securities of companies in the agriculture value chain
3. High Risk**
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the Scheme is suitable for them.
**Risk may be represented as:
Low: Investors understand that their principal will be at low risk
Moderately Low: Investors understand that their principal will be at moderately low risk
Moderate: Investors understand that their principal will be at moderate risk
Moderately High: Investors understand that their principal will be at moderately high risk
High: Investors understand that their principal will be at high risk
1. DSP BlackRock World Agriculture Fund
Investing in Agricultural companies through International funds
An open ended Fund of Funds Scheme
May 31, 2017
This Open-ended Fund of Funds Scheme is
suitable for investors who are seeking* :
âą Long-term capital growth
âąInvestment in units of overseas funds which invest
primarily in equity and equity related securities of
companies in the agriculture value chain
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about
whether the product is suitable for them.
2. Indian Investors
DSP BlackRock World Agriculture Fund
BlackRock Global Funds (BGF) World
Agriculture Fund (WAF)
AUM: USD 102.9 mn*
*Source: BlackRock, as on end-May, 2017
Access to leading global and emerging agricultural companies
2
4. First class investment process
4
Bottom up
Research
Top down
Research
Investment Universe
Liquidity
Financial health
Governance
Company meetings
Financial modelling
Site visits
ESG
Commodity analysis
Macro trends
Industry analysis
Risk Oversight (RQA)
Portfolio Construction
Diversification
Relative valuation
Active risk
Review process
Screening:
Investment
Ideas
BlackRock 2017. ESG: Environmental, Social and Governance. RQA: Risk & Quantitative Analysis Team
5. Company research under a microscope
5
What we look for in a company
ïœ Strategy to grow shareholder value
Sustainable growth
Turnaround/capital discipline
Re-rating/valuation
ïœ Quality factors
Asset quality
Management
Capital structure
Capital allocation
ESG
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
BlackRock 2017
Hard hat research
Tom Holl in Peru
6. Investment
Universe
BGF World Agriculture Fund: Investment Universe
6
All companies around the world engaged in agricultural activities
Actively allocates across value chain from upstream co.âs (e.g. fertiliser) to downstream co.âs (e.g. protein)
Does not invest as far downstream as supermarkets, preferring to stay true to label
Inputs Plantations / Farming Supply Chain Supply Chain
Edible Oil
Example: First Resources
Fertiliser
Example: Potash Corp
Agriculture Science
Example: Monsanto
Agriculture Equipment
Example: Deere & Co
Farming / Plantations
Example: Adecoagro
Forestry
Example: TFS Corporation
Supply Chain
Example: Archer Daniels Midland
Health / Wellness
Example: Glanbia Plc
Food Processing
Example: Synlait
Protein Producers
Example: Tegel
BlackRock 2017. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or
investment recommendation of those companies.
UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
7. Actively allocates across the upstream and downstream sub-sectors
to find attractive investment opportunities at all points of the cycle
7
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Return(rebasedto100)
Pilgrim's Pride Potash Corp Deere & Co
Rising crop prices Falling crop prices
(Downstream) (Upstream) (Upstream)
Fertilizer producer (upstream) RISING crop prices are a positive Leads to increased crop acreage and higher fertilizer demand
Ag equipment producer (upstream) RISING crop prices are a positive Higher farm incomes = increased demand for ag equipment
Chicken producer (downstream) FALLING crop prices are a positive Crop prices are a key input / feed cost
+310%
+110%
-77%
+290%
+10%
-60%
Source: Bloomberg, November 2016. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be
construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16
Return(rebasedto100)
9. Returns potential
An asymmetric returns profile skewed to the upside
Agriculture outperforms during rising inflation
Recent pick-up in M&A signalling the bottom of the cycle?
Diversification of returns
Limited crossover with mainstream indices
Why should you own agriculture?
9
Source: Bloomberg, November 2016.
1
2
3
4
5
6
10. Ag equities able to
add value beyond
stable demand
growth through:
Innovation M&A
Capital
Spending
Leverage
Market share
gains
1. Returns potential of the agriculture sector
10
Consistent demand growth
Ag equities able to deliver superior long-term
performance
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1964/1965 1979/1980 1994/1995 2009/2010
Millionmetrictonnes
Demand growth driven by population
growth and improving incomes
Global consumption of grains & oilseeds Performance rebased to 100
Source: LHS: USDA, November 2016. RHS: Bloomberg, November 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
IndexReturn(rebasedto100)
DAX Global Ag MSCI World S&P 500
11. 2. Asymmetric returns profile skewed to the upside
11
Through-the-cycle ag equity returns are asymmetric Commodity prices are not the only driver of returns
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66
Indexreturns(rebasedto100)
Months
Ag Equity Returns
Up-cycle Down-cycle
151%
25%
10%
-24%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
Ag Equities Ag Commodity Basket
Return(%)
Equities vs commodities returns
Up-cycle Down-cycle
Long term investors rewarded:
Up-cycle returns compensate
for weaker years
Attractive return profile:
Commodity returns are
symmetric, while ag equities
are asymmetric
Short duration of cycle under-
appreciated: We have never
experienced 5yrs of excess
global supply, in +50yrs
Is the cycle about to turn? We
are in the 4th year of excess
supply
Source for both charts: Bloomberg, November 2016. Past performance is no guide to future performance.
Ag equities outperform during the
upcycle years and deliver
moderate returns in the down-
cycle years
Up-cycle shows 2004 - 2011
Down-cycle shows 2011 - 2016
12. Is food inflation just beginning?
Source: FAO Nominal Food Price Index. Data annual from 1960 to end December 2016.
Following one year of rising food prices in 2016, do we expect to follow the historic trend of multiple years of food inflation?
Food and Agricultural Nominal Food Price Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
6 years
6 years
5 years
9 years
9 years
9 years
1 year ?
12
13. Average 81% 19% 36% 14% 44% 18% 113% 25%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Percent
3. Outperforms broad equity markets during rising inflation
13
US inflation over the last 30 years - 5 distinct periods where inflation was rising
How did agriculture perform in absolute terms and relative to other sectors during those 5 periods?
Time period Agriculture MSCI World Financials Mining
Return
Standard
deviation
Return
Standard
deviation
Return
Standard
deviation
Return
Standard
deviation
End 1986 â End 1990 95% 23% 70% 19% 79% 26% 75% 29%
End 1993 â End 1996 80% 11% 58% 9% 61% 11% 77% 14%
End 1998 â End 2000 15% 23% 9% 14% 18% 16% 51% 31%
End 2001 â End 2005 148% 16% 36% 14% 71% 15% 237% 23%
End 2008 â End 2011 80% 26% 40% 20% 25% 28% 88% 31%
End 2015 - ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Source: Datastream, November 2016. Agriculture represented by DAXGlobal Agribusiness Index for periods after 2000 when the index was incepted. For periods prior to that, we have
used an equal weighted index of Deere, Archer-Daniels Midland, Tyson Foods, Kubota, Agrium and Potash Corp. Financials represented by the World DS Financials Index and Mining by
the World DS Mining Index. Standard deviation shows annualized standard deviation of monthly returns between the periods. Past performance is no guide to future performance.
Inflation outlook today looks
similar to 2009 levels
14. 4. Pick up in M&A signalling the bottom of the cycle?
14
- 50 100 150 200 250
Materials
Industrials
Utilities
Communications
Financials
ConsumerâŠ
Energy
Technology
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Agriculture
Announced Total Value in 2016 ($bn)
The Ag sector is leading globally in mega M&A Price-to-book rations are at 5 year lows for Ag
1
2
3
4
5
Price/BookRatio
5yr Range
5yr Avge
Current
Increased consolidation and depressed valuations indicative of a sector reaching the bottom of a cycle
Data sourced from BMO Capital Markets, October 2016.Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not
be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.
15. 5. Diversify your returns
15
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DAXglobal Agribusiness Index relative to MSCI World
Index
18%pa
outperformance
3% underperformance
Style, 12%
Size, 4%
Country, 10%
Currency,
10%
Sector, 22%
Stock specific,
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tracking Error Composition
77%
Different return profile from global equities,
despite high correlation
>75% of ag equity tracking error to global equities is
explained by stock specific factors and sectors
Weâve excluded GFC years
given their extraordinary
nature
Tracking error of BGF World Agriculture versus MSCI World Index
Source: LHS: Bloomberg, November 2016. RHS: BlackRock Internal, end October 2016. Past performance is no guide to future performance.
16. 0.58
1.25
2.47
4.19
6.45
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
MSCI Metals
& Mining
Agriculture
Universe
MSCI World
Energy
MSCI
Healthcare
MSCI
Financials
US$Trillion
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2016 http://www.bea.gov/industry/gdpbyind_data.htm
1.0%, no.
of stocks
= 2
Agriculture stocks (%) Other
2.0%, no.
of stocks
= 16
Agriculture stocks (%) Other
2.4%, no.
of stocks
= 62
Agriculture stocks (%) Other
6. Limited crossover with mainstream indices
16
FTSE 100 MSCI World IndexS&P 500
Market cap relative to other sectorsContribution to US GDP versus percentage of the S&P 500
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Financials Healthcare Energy Agriculture
Contribution to US GDP % of the S&P 500
Agriculture represents a small portion of traditional indices
The agriculture universe has a very large market cap
(41% of the size of the energy universe)
The agriculture sector has a low weighting in the S&P 500 relative to
its contribution to US GDP
Source: BlackRock, internal, April 2016. Agriculture stocks / universe includes: fertilizer, agriculture science, agricultural equipment, edible oil, farming/plantations, forestry, supply chain, health/wellness, food
processing and protein producers. At least 50% revenues must come from agribusiness related activities.
Source: Bloomberg, December 2016
18. Example: 10.0% of the Fund versus 8.5% of the benchmark
What does the company do? Manufactures agricultural equipment
E.g. tractors, combine harvesters and field sprayers
Investment rationale:
âą Farm equipment demand appears to be reaching a bottom
âą Deere is targeting $500m of cost savings
âą Crop price improvement combined with Deereâs cost reduction efforts would support EPS growth
âą A mid-cycle P/E of 15x implies meaningful upside
âą Brazil farm equipment demand in particular looks primed for a year-on-year improvement
Agriculture equipment company: Deere
Source: Goldman Sachs, November 2016. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not
be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies. Position size as at end May 2017.
18
North America Farm Equipment Unit Sales, indexed in 1990
175
155
135
115
95
75
55
35
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
30 year low
Row-crop tractors 4-wheel drive tractors Combine sales
Unitsales
20. 20
Sub-sector exposure: Swimming upstream
Upstream Downstream
Inputs Plantations / Farming Supply Chain Processing
We rotated the portfolio more upstream at end June as we became more confident that crop prices had bottomed
Source: BlackRock Internal, May 2017. Indicative only and subject to change. Data shown above is for illustrative purposes only and does not necessarily represent the current or future
allocation of the fund.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
End Jun 2016 End Oct 2016 End Feb 2017 End May 2017
21. 90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
Tyson Foods DAX Global Agribusiness Index
21
Tyson Foods: Transformational M&A priced in
Harvest profile data from Canaccord, October 2016. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and
should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.
September 2015: 4.0% overweight Tyson September 2016: 3.5% underweight Tyson
Team view: A strong earnings outlook supported a higher
share price and increased exposure to more stable prepared
foods business justified a multiple re-rating.
Team view: Limited upside post re-rating and peak margins in
chicken and hogs, risk that earnings maybe impacted by higher
feed costs or equity dilution.
Stock trading @ $41/share
and 12.5x 16 P/E
Completed transformational
acquisition of Hillshire Foods
Its chicken margins were
benefitting from its buy
versus grow strategy
Beef packing margins were
historically low
Stock trading @ $74/share and 17.1x
17 P/E
Re-rating had occurred
Chicken/hog margins at cyclical peak
Risk of further transformational M&A
that might require an equity raising
Performance rebased to 100
23. Positioning & Characteristics
Source: BlackRock as 31/05/17. Indicative only and subject to change.
Positioning versus the benchmark
34 17.7XUS$ 17,061million 1.8X
Number of holdings Price to earnings ratio (FY+1)
Weighted average market
cap
Price to book ratio (FY+1)
23
3.2%
2.3% 2.3%
1.8%
1.5%
1.1%
0.7%
0.0%
-0.1%
-1.0%
-5.4%
-6.3%-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
24. Sector Allocation Geographic Allocation
BGF World Agriculture: Asset allocation
Source: BlackRock. Data as 31/05/17. Indicative only and subject to change. Geographic exposure shown by listing. Data shown above is for illustrative purposes only and does not necessarily represent the
current or future allocation of the fund.
22%
19%
11%
16%
13%
7%
6%
1%
3%
Fertilizer Agriculture Equipment
Agriculture Science Supply Chain
Protein Producers Food Processing
Health & Wellness Forestry
Edible Oil Cash
Farming & Plantations
60%
12%
10%
6%
5%
3%
3%
1%
USA Asia ex China Europe ex UK
Canada Australasia United Kingdom
Latin America Cash
25. BGF World Agriculture: Top 10 holdings
Source: BlackRock. Data as 31/0/17. Indicative only and subject to change. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy,
and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.
ïœ Market capitalization ranges from US$50B to US$74m
25
Number of Holdings: 34
Company Sector Country of assets % of Fund
Deere & Co Agriculture equipment USA
10.0%
Monsanto Agriculture science USA
9.8%
Archer Daniels Midland Supply Chain USA
6.3%
CF Industries Fertilizer USA
5.6%
Kubota Agriculture equipment Japan
5.5%
Bunge Supply Chain USA
4.9%
Yara International Fertilizer Norway
4.7%
Agrium Fertilizer Canada
4.5%
Potash Corp. Fertilizer Canada
4.3%
Tyson Foods Protein Producer USA
4.1%
Total 59.6%
26. In the preparation of the material contained in this document, DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. (âAMCâ) has used information that is
publicly available, including information developed in-house or basis information received from its affiliates. The AMC however does not warrant the
accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. The data/statistics are given to explain general market trends in the securities
market, it should not be construed as any research report/research recommendation.
We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as âwillâ, âexpectâ, âshouldâ,
âbelieveâ and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are âforward looking statementsâ. Actual results may differ materially from
those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to,
exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or
investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity
prices or other rates or prices etc.
Neither the Fund nor any of its schemes are registered in any jurisdiction except with SEBI (in line with SEBI (Mutual Fund) Regulations, 1996). The
distribution of this material in certain jurisdictions may be restricted or subject to registration requirements and, accordingly, persons who come into
possession of this material in such jurisdictions are required to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such restrictions.
ASSET ALLOCATION
1. Units of BGF â WAF# or other similar overseas mutual fund scheme(s): 95% to 100%
2. Money market securities and/ or units of money market/liquid schemes of DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund: 0% to 5%
#in the shares of BGF â WAF, an Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) III fund.
The sector(s)/stock(s)/issuer(s) mentioned in this document do not constitute any recommendation/opinion of the same and the Underlying
Fund may or may not have any future position in these sector(s)/stock(s)/issuer(s). The portfolio of the Underlying Fund is subject to changes
within the provisions of its Offer document. Past performance may not sustain in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with
other investments.
All figures and other data given in this document are as on 31st May, 2017 unless stated otherwise and the same may or may not be relevant in future.
Please refer to the Scheme information document for investment pattern, strategy and risk factors of the Scheme.
Investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or
consequence of subscribing to the units of the DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund (âFundâ).
There is no guarantee of returns/ income generation in the Scheme. Further, there is no assurance of any capital protection/capital
guarantee to the investors in the Scheme.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully
Disclaimer