Bayesian Modeling using Belief Networks of Perceived Threat levels Affected by Stratagemical Behavior Patterns Colleen L. ...
Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocult...
Introduction Five LLOs of National Power Cody, M.J. (2006). Leveraging Logical Lines of Operation in COIN. School of Advan...
Introduction <ul><li>Difficult, sociocultural, operating environment : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need for conflict strategy fo...
The Problem <ul><li>Military doctrine: To stabilize any region, first establish security  (LLOs #1 and #2)  and then, when...
The Problem <ul><li>This results in giving TIME to the insurgents to gain a competitive advantage. They may: </li></ul><ul...
The (Partial) Solution <ul><li>A Balanced Approach to campaign design   (Phillips, Geddes, and Kanareykin, 2008)  –  It is...
The (Partial) Solution <ul><li>Need operations that are planned, executed, assessed, and adapted based on a holistic under...
Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocult...
Sociocultural Awareness <ul><li>Civil Considerations (different perspectives): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding the imp...
<ul><ul><li>Society  -  under same political authority with a common culture, region, and sense of identity </li></ul></ul...
Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocult...
The State of the PMESII in the  Operational Area (OA) <ul><li>Effects-Based Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Offers planning opt...
Stratagemical Behaviors <ul><li>Stratagemical behavior patterns of DIMEFIL effects </li></ul><ul><li>Produced as combinati...
Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocult...
Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model Blue Analyst Team Link, Social Network, and Bayesian Network Analyses Cu...
The SCC Model’s  Conceptual Architecture <ul><li>Architecture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Viper Framework </li></ul></ul><ul><ul...
Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocult...
Multiple Indicators of  Perceived Level of Threat (PLT) Sociocultural Factor Bayesian Variable Indicator Society Disenfran...
Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects <ul><li>Initial Condition of PMESII </li></ul><ul><li>Military plan to re...
Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects PLT value before DIMEFIL effects: ~4.4% Order of factors according to sen...
Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects <ul><li>Initial Condition of PMESII </li></ul><ul><li>Military plan to gi...
Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects Condition 2: Hostile Nation’s View of US and Other’s Relief Aid PLT value...
Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocult...
A Typical PreAct Solution Associate System – An Artificial Intelligence Application Based on ASI’s PreAct ®  Cognitive Eng...
PreAct Intelligence Suite
Capabilities Summary The  SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® PreAct ® PreAct ®  intelligent systems competencies  u...
Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation...
Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan ...
Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan ...
Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan ...
Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Information Manager (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated ...
Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation...
Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocult...
Conclusions <ul><li>Simple, generally plausible belief network that models </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bayesian relationships be...
<ul><li>Please contact me for more information: </li></ul><ul><li>Colleen L. Phillips, Ph.D. </li></ul><ul><li>www.asinc.c...
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ICCCD 2008 Conference Paper

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&quot;Bayesian Modeling using Belief Networks of Perceived Threat Levels Affected by Stratagemical Behavior Patterns&quot; by C.L. Phillips, Ph.D., J.R. Crosscope, Ph.D., and N.D. Geddes, Ph.D.

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ICCCD 2008 Conference Paper

  1. 1. Bayesian Modeling using Belief Networks of Perceived Threat levels Affected by Stratagemical Behavior Patterns Colleen L. Phillips, Ph.D . John R. Crosscope, Ph.D. Norman D. Geddes, Ph.D. ICCCD 2008, Second International Conference on Computational Cultural Dynamics
  2. 2. Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocultural Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of factors on EBP, the PMESII, and OA </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model </li></ul><ul><li>Bayesian Approach: DIMEFIL Effects Using Belief Nets </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the SCC Model into PreAct® Software Suite </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  3. 3. Introduction Five LLOs of National Power Cody, M.J. (2006). Leveraging Logical Lines of Operation in COIN. School of Advanced Military Studies Monograph. <ul><li>Military Campaign Plan (FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5). </li></ul><ul><ul><li>5 Logical Lines of Operation – LLOs (Cody, 2006). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Success: Positive Populace Opinion about Effects. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need to convince: not a conspiracy to disrupt. </li></ul></ul>Population of Host Nation (HN)
  4. 4. Introduction <ul><li>Difficult, sociocultural, operating environment : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need for conflict strategy formulation and execution processes. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>set of stratagems can be found in the same Army Field Manual. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Asymmetric Warfare: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need to have full situational awareness: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Terrain Analysis, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Weather Analysis, and </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Civil Considerations – impact of US actions on the HN population. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Hypothesize: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A Perceived Level of Threat (PLT) analysis can assist the campaign commander in planning the military campaign by understanding the HN populace’s stratagemical behaviors. </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. The Problem <ul><li>Military doctrine: To stabilize any region, first establish security (LLOs #1 and #2) and then, when safe, establish sustainable infrastructure (LLOs #3, #4, #5) - an unbalanced approach (Chiarelli,Michaelis, 2005). </li></ul><ul><li>Unbalanced approach to campaign design: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sequential ordering of the LLOs until security is achieved. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All the weight is given to the first two LLOs. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Security is the expected first order effect. </li></ul></ul>Chiarelli, P.W., Michaelis, P.R. (2005) Winning the Peace: The Requirement for Full-Spectrum Operations. Military Review , July-August, 4-17.
  6. 6. The Problem <ul><li>This results in giving TIME to the insurgents to gain a competitive advantage. They may: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Repeatedly strike before any headway into security has been made. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Persuade the disenfranchised populace left behind without: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>basic needs and services, </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>governance, </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>economic development. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Resort to joining forces with the insurgents who promise these things. (unwanted 2 nd order effects). </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. The (Partial) Solution <ul><li>A Balanced Approach to campaign design (Phillips, Geddes, and Kanareykin, 2008) – It is: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moving decision-making incrementally and cumulatively. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shifting populace opinion of perceived threat based on population beliefs. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing/eliminating the insurgents recruiting and their disruptive capabilities. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Resulting in a thriving, resilient, stable community. </li></ul></ul>Phillips, C.L., Geddes, N., and Kanareykin, S. (2008). A Balanced Approach for LLOs Using Group Dynamics for COIN Efficacy. Proceedings of the 2 nd International Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics Conference , July 14-17, Las Vegas NV.
  8. 8. The (Partial) Solution <ul><li>Need operations that are planned, executed, assessed, and adapted based on a holistic understanding of the operational environment. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To influence or change populace’s behaviors or capabilities to the US advantage. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To use an integrated application of selected instruments of power (using all FIVE LLOs). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To achieve US directed policy aims with minimal collateral damage to the HN populace. </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocultural Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of factors on EBP, the PMESII, and OA </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model </li></ul><ul><li>Bayesian Approach: DIMEFIL Effects Using Belief Nets </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the SCC Model into PreAct® Software Suite </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  10. 10. Sociocultural Awareness <ul><li>Civil Considerations (different perspectives): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding the impact of military actions on a HN’s basic needs. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HN populace violent behaviors can be manipulated by understanding their stratagemical behavior patterns tied to sociocultural factors. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding of the sociocultural factors affecting HN opinion of the US operational effects. </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><ul><li>Society - under same political authority with a common culture, region, and sense of identity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social Structure - Arrangement and rearrangement of groups within the operational environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Culture - Set of shared ideas, norms, rituals, or codes of behavior </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Language - Set of symbols that people use to communicate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Power and Authority - Defined by the role that each individual plays within a group and their ability to carry out one’s own will when up against resistance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interests - Core beliefs and values that motivate the individual’s or group’s behavior </li></ul></ul>Six Significant Sociocultural Factors
  12. 12. Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocultural Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of factors on EBP, the PMESII, and OA </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model </li></ul><ul><li>Bayesian Approach: DIMEFIL Effects Using Belief Nets </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the SCC Model into PreAct® Software Suite </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  13. 13. The State of the PMESII in the Operational Area (OA) <ul><li>Effects-Based Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Offers planning options to control the effects of stratagemical behaviors </li></ul><ul><li>Parallel plan using all FIVE LLOs can impose control over the OA and HN opinions about military effects. </li></ul><ul><li>Finding the correct stratagemical behavior pattern for reducing the perceived level of threat. </li></ul><ul><li>The PMESII of the OA </li></ul>Kem, J.D. Colonel (2007). Understanding the Operation Environment: The Expansion of DIME. April-June. University of Military Intelligence. Strategic Center of Gravity
  14. 14. Stratagemical Behaviors <ul><li>Stratagemical behavior patterns of DIMEFIL effects </li></ul><ul><li>Produced as combinations of sociocultural factors incorporated into the plan </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>D – diplomatic: Power/authority – use of a village elder to gain US support within the village and to the ones who have moved to the cities (urban) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>I – informational: Culture - use of religious beliefs as justification to detonate an IED killing dozens. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>M – military power: Interests -use of technology and illegal funds to entice fence sitters to fight with the insurgents </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>E – national economic: Society – national sanctions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>F – personal financial: Social Structure - Use of web and e-mail to form social networks </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>I – intelligence guided: Language -symbols and signs used for recruitment by the insurgency </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>L – law enforced: Power/authority -use of an outstanding leader of a terrorist group to try and gain legitimacy for a new regime. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocultural Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of factors on EBP, the PMESII, and OA </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model </li></ul><ul><li>Bayesian Approach: DIMEFIL Effects Using Belief Nets </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the SCC Model into PreAct® Software Suite </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  16. 16. Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model Blue Analyst Team Link, Social Network, and Bayesian Network Analyses Cultural Beliefs , Desires, and intentions for all Groups in the OA Brigade COA C onfiguration s R educing 2nd Order Effects DIMEFIL Effects Simulation by PreAct® Holistic Projections Of the Perceived State of the PMESII and The group’s life cycle Disparate Sources of Knowledge Continuously updated
  17. 17. The SCC Model’s Conceptual Architecture <ul><li>Architecture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Viper Framework </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>QT GUI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Axis Pro – Link Analysis (Enhanced) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PMESII Data Manager (Fused Sensor/Multi-INT sources) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PreAct® Modeled Groups of interest </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Blue Team </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Red Team </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>W-NGO </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>E-NGO </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Villages </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Urban population </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Many others </li></ul></ul></ul>GUI PreAct® Op Ords Link Analysis PMESII Data Management Embedded Bayesian Nets Of Population Beliefs … … .
  18. 18. Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocultural Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of factors on EBP, the PMESII, and OA </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model </li></ul><ul><li>Bayesian Approach: DIMEFIL Effects Using Belief Nets </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the SCC Model into PreAct® Software Suite </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  19. 19. Multiple Indicators of Perceived Level of Threat (PLT) Sociocultural Factor Bayesian Variable Indicator Society Disenfranchisement (score:1-3; 3 strongest level) Social Structure Organizedness (score: 1-3; 3 highly organized) Culture Motivation (score: 1-3; 3 highly motivated) Language Communications (score: 1-3; 3 least amount of understanding) Power/Authority Capability (score: 1-3; 3 strongest capability) Interests Interests (score: 1-3; 3 least amount of needs fulfilled) Very Relevant to the Perceived Level of Threat History (score: 1-3: 3 strong history of making and carrying out threats)
  20. 20. Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects <ul><li>Initial Condition of PMESII </li></ul><ul><li>Military plan to rebuild infrastructure in Sadr City. </li></ul><ul><li>Complaints of garbage in the streets and broken water/sewage pipes, downed power lines. </li></ul><ul><li>Populace feels US not doing anything to help. </li></ul><ul><li>Probability of a moderate threat ~96%. </li></ul><ul><li>Probability of an immanent threat ~4.4% (1 out of 23). </li></ul><ul><li>Conditions of PMESII given DIMEFIL Effects </li></ul><ul><li>New civil-military operations center. (decrease D) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides place to file populace damage claims. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capability to check on status of detainees. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Meet with Iraqi officials. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Explanation of US mission. (decrease C) </li></ul><ul><li>US invested $400,000 to distribute trash bins and employ locals. (decrease M) </li></ul><ul><li>Probability of high threat down to ~.48% (1 out of 208). </li></ul>Condition1: US Military Effects on a HN Population
  21. 21. Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects PLT value before DIMEFIL effects: ~4.4% Order of factors according to sensitivity: Communication History Interests PLT value after DIMEFIL effects: ~.48% Order of factors according to sensitivity: History Disenfranchisement Communication Condition 1: Host Nation Populace View Norsys’s Netica v3.25 Norsys’s Netica v3.25
  22. 22. Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects <ul><li>Initial Condition of PMESII </li></ul><ul><li>Military plan to give aid to the Myanmar population. </li></ul><ul><li>Outsiders aid might enforce an alien way of life. </li></ul><ul><li>1000s struggling for basic shelter, food, healthcare. </li></ul><ul><li>HN government sees US as interfering. </li></ul><ul><li>Probability of immanent threat: ~55%. </li></ul><ul><li>Conditions of PMESII given DIMEFIL Effects </li></ul><ul><li>Some material relief allowed. (decrease D) </li></ul><ul><li>Diplomatic efforts to dispel myths. (decrease C) </li></ul><ul><li>Mayanmar’s improved reputation within its populace. (decrease M) </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced probability of immanent threat down to ~27%. </li></ul>Condition2: A Hostile Nation’s PLT of US and Other’s Relief
  23. 23. Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects Condition 2: Hostile Nation’s View of US and Other’s Relief Aid PLT value before DIMEFIL effects: ~55% Order of factors according to sensitivity: Interests Communication History PLT value after DIMEFIL effects: ~27% Order of factors according to sensitivity: Interests Communication Capabilities Norsys’s Netica v3.25 Norsys’s Netica v3.25
  24. 24. Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocultural Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of factors on EBP, the PMESII, and OA </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model </li></ul><ul><li>Bayesian Approach: DIMEFIL Effects Using Belief Nets </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the SCC Model into PreAct® Software Suite </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  25. 25. A Typical PreAct Solution Associate System – An Artificial Intelligence Application Based on ASI’s PreAct ® Cognitive Engine Domain-specific Knowledge Base PreAct ® Situational Data <ul><li>Display Commands </li></ul><ul><li>Notifications </li></ul><ul><li>System Actions </li></ul><ul><li>Proposals </li></ul>User Actions Shared Knowledge
  26. 26. PreAct Intelligence Suite
  27. 27. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® PreAct ® PreAct ® intelligent systems competencies used by The DEM Model: Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager (Core Libraries)
  28. 28. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Error Manager Information Manager (Core Libraries) Based on continuous input streaming from various, disparate sources, the SCC Model will use PreAct’s ® Situation Assessor to monitor the operational environment and the sociocultural context (using embedded Link, Social, and Bayesian Network analyses)
  29. 29. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager Based on the PMESII situational context found, the SCC Model will use PreAct’s ® Intent Interpreter to interpret each group’s intent without requiring any group to explicitly interact with the SCC Model.
  30. 30. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager With the interpretation of each group’s intent, the SCC Model can use PreAct’s ® Planner to estimate the future activities of each group
  31. 31. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager As planning progresses, the SCC Model can perform activities on behalf of each group to carry out the estimated plans using PreAct’s ® Activity Performer
  32. 32. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Information Manager (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager The SCC Model will facilitate the analyst’s sociocultural assessment by using PreAct’s ® Information Manager to manage the analyst’s display based on the analyst’s current intent and the PMESII sociocultural context
  33. 33. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor PreAct ® Infinite looping Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Error Manager Information Manager (Core Libraries) Based on continuous input streaming from various, disparate sources, the SCC Model will use PreAct’s ® Situation Assessor to monitor the operational environment and the sociocultural context (and continue to cycle through the process)
  34. 34. Presentation Agenda <ul><li>Introduction and Problem Statement </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Awareness and the Sociocultural Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of factors on EBP, the PMESII, and OA </li></ul><ul><li>Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model </li></ul><ul><li>Bayesian Approach: DIMEFIL Effects Using Belief Nets </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the SCC Model into PreAct® Software Suite </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  35. 35. Conclusions <ul><li>Simple, generally plausible belief network that models </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bayesian relationships between independent variables. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Variables represent DIMEFIL/PMESII factors and their effects on a group’s Perceived Level of Threat (PLT). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tool for decision makers and planners </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Network supplies specific values or probability distributions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sensitivity Analysis – determines which factors are likely to yield the greatest effect in a given context. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PreAct® can simulate hundreds of alternative DIMEFIL action combinations of the PMESII elements resulting in several plausible arrangements of stratagemical behavior patterns to choose from when planning. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Combines belief network reasoning with intelligent, stratagemical planning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Produces synergistic payoff. </li></ul></ul>
  36. 36. <ul><li>Please contact me for more information: </li></ul><ul><li>Colleen L. Phillips, Ph.D. </li></ul><ul><li>www.asinc.com/sociocultural-dynamics/ </li></ul><ul><li>770-518-4228 x 216 </li></ul><ul><li>3650 Brookside Parkway </li></ul><ul><li>Alpharetta, GA 30022 </li></ul>Questions??? Thank You!

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