"Bayesian Modeling using Belief Networks of Perceived Threat Levels Affected by Stratagemical Behavior Patterns" by C.L. Phillips, Ph.D., J.R. Crosscope, Ph.D., and N.D. Geddes, Ph.D.

1. Bayesian Modeling using Belief Networks of Perceived Threat levels Affected by Stratagemical Behavior Patterns Colleen L. Phillips, Ph.D . John R. Crosscope, Ph.D. Norman D. Geddes, Ph.D. ICCCD 2008, Second International Conference on Computational Cultural Dynamics

16. Sociocultural Computational Cognitive (SCC) Model Blue Analyst Team Link, Social Network, and Bayesian Network Analyses Cultural Beliefs , Desires, and intentions for all Groups in the OA Brigade COA C onfiguration s R educing 2nd Order Effects DIMEFIL Effects Simulation by PreAct® Holistic Projections Of the Perceived State of the PMESII and The group’s life cycle Disparate Sources of Knowledge Continuously updated

19. Multiple Indicators of Perceived Level of Threat (PLT) Sociocultural Factor Bayesian Variable Indicator Society Disenfranchisement (score:1-3; 3 strongest level) Social Structure Organizedness (score: 1-3; 3 highly organized) Culture Motivation (score: 1-3; 3 highly motivated) Language Communications (score: 1-3; 3 least amount of understanding) Power/Authority Capability (score: 1-3; 3 strongest capability) Interests Interests (score: 1-3; 3 least amount of needs fulfilled) Very Relevant to the Perceived Level of Threat History (score: 1-3: 3 strong history of making and carrying out threats)

21. Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects PLT value before DIMEFIL effects: ~4.4% Order of factors according to sensitivity: Communication History Interests PLT value after DIMEFIL effects: ~.48% Order of factors according to sensitivity: History Disenfranchisement Communication Condition 1: Host Nation Populace View Norsys’s Netica v3.25 Norsys’s Netica v3.25

23. Bayesian Approach to Determining DIMEFIL Effects Condition 2: Hostile Nation’s View of US and Other’s Relief Aid PLT value before DIMEFIL effects: ~55% Order of factors according to sensitivity: Interests Communication History PLT value after DIMEFIL effects: ~27% Order of factors according to sensitivity: Interests Communication Capabilities Norsys’s Netica v3.25 Norsys’s Netica v3.25

26. PreAct Intelligence Suite

27. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® PreAct ® PreAct ® intelligent systems competencies used by The DEM Model: Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager (Core Libraries)

28. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Error Manager Information Manager (Core Libraries) Based on continuous input streaming from various, disparate sources, the SCC Model will use PreAct’s ® Situation Assessor to monitor the operational environment and the sociocultural context (using embedded Link, Social, and Bayesian Network analyses)

29. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager Based on the PMESII situational context found, the SCC Model will use PreAct’s ® Intent Interpreter to interpret each group’s intent without requiring any group to explicitly interact with the SCC Model.

30. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager With the interpretation of each group’s intent, the SCC Model can use PreAct’s ® Planner to estimate the future activities of each group

31. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager As planning progresses, the SCC Model can perform activities on behalf of each group to carry out the estimated plans using PreAct’s ® Activity Performer

32. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Information Manager (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager The SCC Model will facilitate the analyst’s sociocultural assessment by using PreAct’s ® Information Manager to manage the analyst’s display based on the analyst’s current intent and the PMESII sociocultural context

33. Capabilities Summary The SCC Model is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor PreAct ® Infinite looping Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Error Manager Information Manager (Core Libraries) Based on continuous input streaming from various, disparate sources, the SCC Model will use PreAct’s ® Situation Assessor to monitor the operational environment and the sociocultural context (and continue to cycle through the process)