By Prof. Imasiku A. Nyambe and Paolo Burlando

1. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project
DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY
WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
Funded under the H2020 Framework
Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268
Case Study in the
Zambezi River Basin
Prof. Imasiku A. Nyambe1 and Paolo Burlando2
1University of Zambia
2 ETH Zurich
paolo.burlando@ethz.ch

2. 1-02
1-06
1-03
1-08
1-07
1-05
1-09
1-12 1-13
1-11
1-10
1-04
1-01
1. Zambezi Delta
2. Tete
3. Shire/Lake Malawi
4. Mupata
10.Luanginga
11.Lungue Bungo
12.Upper Zambezi
13. Kabompo
5. Luangwa
6. Kariba
7. Kafue
8. Cuando/Chobe
9. Barotse
Zambezi Sub-CatchmentsMotivation

3. Population Dens ity
0 - 20
21 - 88
89 - 245
246 - 460
461 - 1486
Parks
Fores t Res erv e
Gam e M anagement Area
Gam e P ark
National Park
Partial Res erv e
Recreation Park
Saf ari A rea
State F ores t
W ildlife Res erv e
Majrivs
Lak es
N
EW
S
Population Density within the Sub-Basin
LIVELIHOODS

4. Majority is Rain-fed Agriculture

5. WATER AND FOOD - Agriculture
Sub-
basin
Irrigated area
(ha)
Projected
(ha)
Kafue 46538 20520
Kariba 44531 184388
Luangwa 17794 11063
Mupata 21790 8566
Shire 60960 101166
Tete 52572 55621
Delta 7664 99110
Others 7190 34207
Total 259,039 514,641
Country Irrigated area
at present
(ha)
Irrigated area
projected for
2025 (ha)
Increase (%)
Angola 6125 10 625 173
Botswana 0 20 300 --
Malawi 37 820 78 026 206
Mozambique 8 436 137 410 1629
Namibia 140 450 321
Tanzania 23 140 23 140 100
Zambia 74 661 61 259 82
Zimbabwe 108 717 183 431 169
Total 259, 039 514 641 199
Source: World Bank (2010)

6. Energy, existing and future; Southern Africa Power Pools

7. Topology of Zambezi: entry point for WEF?

8. Areas of particular ecological significance with regard to biodiversity and
functioning of the natural ecosystem have been identified and ranked.
Features considered: national parks, protected and wildlife areas, mangroves,
river mouth, wetlands important for birds, wetland of specific concern,
biodiversity, indigenous forest, world heritage site, Ramsar site, fish fauna.
KEY ISSUES: Environmental sensitive areas map
Source: ZRS,
2008

9. WEF Nexus Issues in the Zambezi
Headline points
• As the demands for water, energy and food increase due to
population growth and rising living standards, so will the
interconnectedness between the corresponding sectors;
this is the so-called water-energy-food nexus.
• In the near future, the irrigated area is expected to double
and exceed 500.000 ha.
• In terms of power, ongoing and planned projects will add
2700 MW to the electrical grid.
• Projects in both sectors – agriculture and energy – are all
located in the Middle and Lower Zambezi.

10. Summary of Basin Water Resources Strategic Issues
Poor knowledge and organization in relation to water resources of the basin
for both surface and groundwaters
Limited infrastructure
High vulnerability to natural disasters
High climatic variability both temporal and spatial in the basin
Low agricultural development and large food insecurity
Large untapped hydropower potential
Low coverage in water supply and sanitation
Lack of appreciation and of water resources management strategies toward
protection of valuable ecosystems
Lack of multi-use water resources development and management
strategies.

11. International Basin Level
(IWRM Strategy)
National level (NDP)
Catchment level-
Provincial (PDP)
Sub-Catchment-
District level (DDP)
Local-
Community
(VDP)
SADC, RBOs; Commissions,
Technical -committees, ICPs,
Regional Institutions (IUCN,
SARDC, WWF, GWP,etc)
NSC (Govt central departments,
catchment councils, National
NGOs, CWPs,etc
Provincial govts, catchment
councils, NGOs,CBO,etc
Local govt, RDCs,Sub-catchment
council, NGOs, CBOs, etc
Basin Wide Forums, Traditional
institutions (formal/informal),
Village Devpt Committees,
Chiefdoms,CBOs, NGOs,
Verticalintegration????
Key Challenge-Integration-Various Levels
Putting all these together

12. 12
DAFNE Partners
Partners Country
Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zürich Switzerland
Politecnico di Milano Italy
Int. Centre for Research on the Environment and the Economy Greece
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Belgium
The University Court of the University of Aberdeen United Kingdom
Osnabrück University Germany
International Water Management Institute IWMI Sri Lanka
African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science Kenya
TBA Ethiopia
University of Zambia Zambia
Universidade Eduardo Mondlane Mozambique
Vista Geowissenschaftliche Fernerkundung GmbH Germany
ATEC-3D Ltd. United Kingdom
European Institute for Participatory Media EV Germany
Because of the Above the following partners came to
together and were awarded this EU-funded project under
Horizon 2020 - Water

13. 13
Project objectives
• DAFNE stands for Decision-Analytic Framework to
explore the water-energy-food NExus in complex and
transboundary water resources systems of fast growing
developing countries
• DAFNE advocates an integrated water resources
management approach, which explicitly addresses
the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus.
• It supports the promotion of a green economy in regions
where infrastructure development and expanding
agriculture have to be balanced with local social,
economic, and environmental dimensions.

14. 14
Project objectives
• DAFNE will analyse and quantify the WEF nexus
with respect to the trade-offs between conflicting
objectives, such as hydropower production vs.
irrigation and land exploitation vs. conservation.
• The overall objective is to establish a decision-
analytic framework (DAF) for Participatory and
Integrated Planning (PIP).

15. 15
The Decision-Analytic Framework
The DAF is intended to be a quantitative assessment tool to
facilitate social understanding of the impact and support
comparative analysis of alternative pathways.
It will be developed through extensive, quantitative analysis of
the anticipated effects of alternative planning options on the
broad range of heterogeneous and often competing interests in
transboundary river basins, also addressing feedback
mechanisms between the WEF components
It will be informed by, improved upon and validated through:
a) active engagement of stakeholders throughout the process,
and
b)involvement of international and local academic expertise
(water engineering, agricultural sciences, natural sciences,
environmental economics, water governance and law)

16. 16
Project Work Packages structure
WP1: COORDINATION & MANAGEMENT
WP3: WATER-ENERGY-
FOOD NEXUS ANALYSIS
& MODELLING
WP4: MODELLING SOCIAL,
ECONOMIC & INSTITUTIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS
WP5: DECISION
ANALYTIC
FRAMEWORK
WP6: SYNTHESIS & PATHWAY TO
IMPACT
Direct links
Feedbacks
Secondary feedbacks
WP2: DRIVER of WATER-ENERGY-
FOOD NEXUS
WP7: DISSEMINATION, OUTREACH & KNOW-
HOW TRANSFER

17. 17
Demand
Dynamics of socio-economic framework
Feedback
Subtasks WP2
ENVIRONMENT
DEMOGRAPHY
ENERGY &
HYDROPOWER
ECONOMYWATER
DEMAND
WATER
AVAILABILITY
POLITICS AND
INSTITUTIONS
AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
D
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D
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C
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F
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W
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K
1.1 / 2.1
1.1 / 2.1
1.8 / 2.6
1.7 / 2.5
1.3 / 2.3
1.2 / 2.2
1.5 /
2.7
1.8 / 2.6
1.6 / 2.4
WP2 components and links
Drivers of WEF Nexus
(co-variation of climate and
socio economic drivers)

18. 18
WATER QUALITY
ECOSYSTEMS &
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
HYDROLOGY &
WATER RESOURCES
AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
HYDROPOWER
INTEGRATED MODEL
OF WATER-ENERGY-
LAND NEXUS
WP2
DRIVER of WATER-
ENERGY-FOOD
NEXUS
WP5
DECISION ANALYTIC
FRAMEWORK
WP2: DRIVER of
WATER-ENERGY-
FOOD NEXUS
Direct links
Feeds
Task and subtasks
WP3
3.1.2
3.1.5
3.1.4
3.1.3
3.1.1
3.2
WP3 model links
• “2-core engine”
• cause-effect
relationships
• scale modelling

19. 19
INDICATORS &
VALUE FUNCTIONS
ROBUST DECISION-
ANALYTIC
FRAMEWORK
MODEL
SCENARIO
DISCOVERY
ANALYSIS
DESIGN OF
ROBUST
ADAPTATION
PATHWAYS
WP3: WATER-
ENERGY-FOOD
NEXUS ANALYSIS &
MODELLING
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
Direct links
Feedbacks
Task WP5
WP5 task links
feedback

20. 20
Project structure – The PIP procedure
VNL (virtual negotiation lab) – WP6
In the virtual negotiationlab the stakeholder/DMs comparativelyassess the
pathwayprovided by WP5 and negotiate to extract several interesting
largelyagreedupon alternatives.
DAF (decision analytic framework) – WP5
Robust pathways (sequences of actions) are selected via simulation-basedoptimizationof the
integratedmodel built in WP3 fordifferent alternative combinations/timing of planning
actions suggestedby WP3 and WP4 under current and future climatic andsocio-technological
scenarios (WP3). Pathwayare assessedbased on the multiple indicators identified inWP2.
The DAF provides:
• Set of interesting alternative pathways for each scenarios considered.
• A set of robust alternatives across all the scenarios.
INDICATORS – WP2
• Evaluation Indicators representing the different
stakeholder groups are identifiedsector by
sector in collaboration withthe stakeholders and
the decision makers.
• Additional high level indicators can be
formulatedin WP3 to capture governance,
economic and legal aspect of general interest.
MODELS – WP3/WP4
• Models of the natural processes are set up and
validated
• Models of the socio-economic processes are set
up and validated
• The model of the different components are
combined into an integratedmodel
ACTIONS and SCENARIOS – WP2
• Current baseline and future scenarios of the
maindrivers (boundaries) of the system are
built.
• Planning and management actions, including
infrastructural, normative and operational
intervention are identified(the action will be
combined into pathways: temporal sequence of
set of actions)
Set of feasible actions
Trajectories of key variables (e.g.
reservoir storages, water supply,
agricultural production,…)
Pathways and evaluation indicators
Candidate pathways
MONITORING – WP2
• Historical data acquisition
• Large scale remote sensing and local scale
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle surveys
• Ground truth by fieldwork
• Socio-economic surveys
STAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT
FEEDBACK
MONITORING
ACTIONS and
SCENARIOS INDICATORS
MODELS
DAF
VNL
W2
W3
W2
W2
W6
W5
W4
Participatory & Integrated Planning
Pathways
Virtual
Negotiation Lab
Decision Analytic Framework

21. 21
Two transboundary pilot case studies
ZAMBEZI
• 2,700 km, 1.32 million km2
• longest east flowing river in
Africa
• 8 riparian states (Zambia,
Angola, Namibia, Botswana,
Zimbabwe, Mozambique,
Malawi, Tanzania).
Four large hydropower dams since the 1970s (Kariba, Cahora Bassa,
Itezhi-Tezhi and Kafue Gorges)
WEF Issues: resource availability vs population density, expansion of
irrigated agriculture, additional hydropower schemes, ecosystem
conservation and expanding tourism.
Lunsemfwa Catchment in Zambia
One small catchment in MOZ

22. 22
DAFNE Expected Outcomes
Innovative aspects
1. Advances in environmental monitoring: remote sensing will be
combined with UAV-based data collection to supplement the currently
limited ground monitoring capacity at a low cost;
2. Comprehensive modelling and integrated WEF model
3. Water management and planning based on robust Decision Analytic
Framework
4. Methods and tools to facilitate and promote stakeholder engagement
and participation in decision making
5. Improved methods for practical interactions between science and
policy leading to a strong applicability of the above innovations
6. Transfer of knowledge on methods, monitoring and modelling (Geo-
portal)

23. Contacted by Country/ Organization Title First_ Name Surname Designation Organization
Angola Mr Manual Quintino National Director of water Resources Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hídricos
Botswana Dr Obolokile Obakeng Director Department of Water Affairs
Malawi Mr Pepani Kaluwa Director Department of Water Affairs
Dinis Mozambique Mrs Suzanna Saranga-Loforte National Director DNA
Namibia Mr Abraham Nehemia Under Secretary Ministry of Agriculture, Water & Forestr
Tanzania Mr Sylvester Matemu SADC Contact Ministry of Water Development
Imasiku Zambia Dr. Kenneth Msibi SADC water
Imasiku Zambia Mr Christopher Chileshe Director Departement of Water Affairs
Zimbabwe Mr. Tinayeshe Mutazu Director-Director Water Resources Planning and Manage
Mozambique Ms Laura Nhancale Head of International Relations ?
Zambia Mr Oscar S. Kalumiana Director Energy Department ?
Zimbabwe Mr Munyaradzi Munodowafa Director Power Department ?
Angola Dr Jose Rodrigues Prata Junior Permanent Secretary Ministry of Agriculture & Rural
Tanzania Mrs Mrs Sophia Kaduma Permanent Secretary Ministry of Agriculture Food Security an
Botswana Mr. Mr Neil Fitt Permanent Secretary Ministry of Environment
Imasiku Zambia Mr Paul Kapotwe Director General Water Resources Management Authori
Zimbabwe Permanent Secretary Ministry of Environment, Water & climat
Imasiku Zambia Ms Abigail Bwanga Water Planner Ministry of Mines, Energy and Water
Imasiku ZAMCOM Prof. Zebediah Phiri Executive Secretary Zambezi Watercourse Commission
Dinis Mozambique Mr. Custodio Vicente Director General ARA-Zambezi (Zambezi Water Resour
Imasiku ZRA Eng Munyaradzi Munodawafa Chief Executive Officer Zambezi River Authority
Imasiku Zambia ZESCO
Zimbabwe ZESA
Mozambique HCB
Imasiku GWP-SA Ms Ruth Beukman Executive Secretary Global Water Partnership Africa
Imasiku SAPP Dr Lawrence Musaba Coordination Centre Manager SAPP Coordination Centre
Imasiku WATERNET Dr Jean-Marie Kileshye Onema Project Manager WaternetPO Box MP600, Mount Pleasa
Imasiku SADC-WATER Dr Kenneth Msibi Policy & Strategy Expert SADC Water Division
Imasiku WWF Dr. / Mr. Nyambe / Jose Nyambe / Chiburre Project ManagerWWF Joint Zambezi River Basin Environment
STAKEHOLDERS ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
Water Affairs in SADC + Commissioners
GREENS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

24. JOIN US IN LUSAKA AT 6th ZAMBIA WATER FORUM & EXHIBITION 12-
13TH JUNE, 2017

25. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project