Cindy Carver Real Estate Market Presentation

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www.cyndicarver.johnlscott.com
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND
2015 FORECAST
By: Skylar Olsen, PhD
Senior Economist

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About Zillow Real Estate Research
VISIT ZILLOW RESEARCH:
www.zillow.com/research
In-depth research, monthly reports
and interactive visuals
• HomeValues
• For-sale Inventory
• Home Sales
• Forecasts
• And much more……

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HOUSING MARKET
OVERVIEW

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The housing market is still recovering……..
Peak to trough Peak to current Year-over-year
-22.5% -9.6% 6.0%
Zillow Home Value Index – U.S. Median Home Value

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Although the recovery is slowing down to “normal”

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Many metro areas are seeing high appreciation, but
at half the rates seen in 2013

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Home would you like it 7 years in Seattle still down
11% from peak
Peak to trough Peak to current Year-over-year
-31.7% -11.2% 6.3%

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The slowdown phenomenon is present in Seattle

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Eastside and South King County saw large gains
City Annual
home value
change
Seattle 6.1%
Tacoma 5.9%
Renton 7.6%
Bellevue 8.7%
Everett 5.6%

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HEADWINDS FOR
HOMEBUYERS
Three trends affecting the housing market

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1. For-sale inventory has increased nationwide, but
remains flat in the Seattle metro

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2. Nationally, new and existing home sales are low

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3. One in six homeowners is underwater
Negative equity remains widespread, 17% nationally

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Nationally, 35% of homeowners lack equity to sell

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Today, underwater homes are less common, but still
a problem

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Where are underwater homeowners in Seattle?
City
Negative
equity
Tacoma 29%
Spanaway 34%
Lakewood 26%
Auburn 24%
Everett 24%

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Most underwater homes are entry level homes, less
homes are available for first-time buyers

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AFFORDABILITY AND
FUTURE BUYERS

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Currently, interest rates are very low, but expected to
rise eventually

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How will rising rate affect affordability?

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Low rates = affordability on buyers’ side in Seattle

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High rents: a barrier to savings?

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Influx of rental demand

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Growth in rental households by structure type

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Coping strategy for expensive rents

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WHO ARE THE FUTURE
HOMEBUYERS?

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Young renters optimistic about future ownership
83 percent of millennial renters are “confident” or “somewhat
confident” that they will eventually buy a home.

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Millennials want to own homes……..

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But aren’t quite ready to start buying right now
Over the next year, millennials will emerge as the majority of new
homebuyers, surpassing Generation X.

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Millennials delayed

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Millennials with full-time employment are already
homeowners

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Labor market for millennials

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WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2015

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Home values forecasted rise, at slower rates in 2015

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One-year forecast for 2015 Seattle metro area
City
Annual
home value
change
Seattle 4.8%
Tacoma 4.7%
Renton 5.5%
Bellevue 6.0%
Everett 5.0%

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Bold Housing Predictions for 2015
• Homebuyers will have more negotiation power in 2015
– A less frothy housing market means a more balanced market. Slowing appreciation,
more inventory and the return of price cuts mean that buyers will have more choices and
won’t have to move as fast.
• Millennials will overtake Generation X as the largest group of
homebuyers
– Millennials have been delaying marriage and having children, but that doesn’t mean they
don’t have a desire to buy.
• Builders will begin constructing more, less expensive homes
– Builders will stop concentrating on the upper tier of the market and will begin to build
more entry level homes.

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Bold Housing Predictions for 2015
• Homebuyers will have more negotiation power in 2015
– A less frothy housing market means a more balanced market. Slowing appreciation,
more inventory and the return of price cuts mean that buyers will have more choices and
won’t have to move as fast.
• Millennials will overtake Generation X as the largest group of
homebuyers
– Millennials have been delaying marriage and having children, but that doesn’t mean they
don’t have a desire to buy.
• Builders will begin constructing more, less expensive homes
– Builders will stop concentrating on the upper tier of the market and will begin to build
more entry level homes.

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Find data for your local area on Zillow.com

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Thanks To For Providing This Presentation

Cindy Carver Real Estate Market Presentation

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