CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: March 27, 2018
Iranian police forces are preparing for future internal security
challenges and the potential revival of anti-regime protests. Iran’s
parliament increased the Law Enforcement Forces budget to purchase
weapons and equipment by about 400 percent from last year. This
increase follows months of deadly protests across Iran that exposed
grave security flaws in front-line defenses, particularly in smaller cities.
The al Houthi movement displayed its ballistic missile range in a barrage
of missiles targeting Saudi sites to mark the three-year anniversary of
the Saudi-led coalition’s intervention in Yemen. The al Houthis framed the
attack as a justified response to Saudi military actions in Yemen,
demanding an end to the air campaign and blockade in order for the al
Houthis to participate in negotiations. Continued al Houthi ballistic missile
launches against Saudi Arabia could undercut attempts to resume UN-
mediated peace talks.
Yemen
Iran

2. 2
Threat Update: March 27, 2018
China seeks to counter Indian nuclear capabilities in South Asia by
assisting Pakistan with developing its nuclear program. China
provided Pakistan with an advanced missile tracking system for Pakistan’s
missile arsenal. India successfully tested a supersonic cruise missile near
the Pakistani border on March 22. Chinese nuclear assistance to Pakistan
may escalate a regional arms race with India.
Al Shabaab is escalating attacks in Mogadishu to exploit the security
vacuum created by a political crisis in the Somali parliament. Security
forces deployed to the parliament building after a political standoff
between the Speaker and Prime Minister. Al Shabaab militants later
conducted multiple IED attacks in the capital, including an SVBIED attack
targeting the parliament building. Al Shabaab will likely conduct more
attacks in Mogadishu if the political crisis persists, which may stall
offensives against al Shabaab strongholds near the capital.
Somalia
Pakistan

3. 3
Threat Update: March 27, 2018
Libya
Egypt seeks to become a key influencer in the Libyan reconciliation
process to secure the Egyptian-Libyan border and counter Algerian
influence. Egypt is mediating Libyan army unification talks between
opposing military factions in Cairo. Libyan National Army commander
Khalifa Haftar’s rising power as a potential commander-in-chief of a
unified army will allow Egypt to secure its sphere of influence in
Libya. A political deal outside of the UN process may encourage
international actors, like Algeria, to counter growing Egyptian authority.
Social and economic grievances are driving inhabitants of peripheral
regions of Morocco and Tunisia to the streets seven years after the
2011 Arab Spring. The people from mining regions such as Gafsa in
Tunisia and Jerada in Morocco are protesting to demand more economic
opportunities. The Moroccan and Tunisian governments have cracked
down on protests in response. Protests have nevertheless continued and
may pressure both regimes to engage in structural and political change.
Maghreb

4. Yemen
4Tomás Padgett Perez
Al Houthi forces launch missiles in reprisal for
the coalition’s bombing campaign
23 MAR: The al Houthi
movement launched a Badr 1
ballistic missile targeting Saudi
ARAMCO facilities in Najran
province, southern Saudi Arabia.
22 MAR: The al Houthi
movement claimed to have
developed a new short-
range ballistic missile
dubbed the Badr 1.
25 MAR: The al Houthi
movement launched seven
ballistic missiles targeting
Riyadh, Jizan City, Najran
City, and Khamis Mushayt
city. Saudi Arabia claimed to
have intercepted all seven
missiles, though video
footage raises doubts.
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present
Al Houthi ballistic
missile targets,
March 25.
Target city
Najran City
Khamis Mushayt
Jizan City

5. Pakistan
5Matthew Cassidy
China seeks to counter Indian nuclear progress
22 OCT 2016: India began
to negotiate a deal with
Russia to acquire the S-400
missile defense system.
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23 NOV 2017: India tested the joint
Indian-Russian made BrahMos
supersonic cruise missile. India claimed
the missile is the fastest in the world.
22 MAR 2018: China
acknowledged it sold a
missile tracker to Pakistan.
China has not recognized
most missile sales to
Pakistan in the past.
2 3

6. Horn of
Africa
6Peter Cialone
Al Shabaab escalates attacks in Mogadishu
after parliamentary crisis
1. 16 MAR: Somali security forces deployed to the
parliament building after a motion of no confidence
against the Lower House Speaker sparked a standoff
with the Prime Minister.
2. 22 MAR: Al Shabaab killed 17 people with a vehicle-
borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) outside
Wehliye Hotel on Makka al Mukarama road, Mogadishu.
3. 25 MAR: Al Shabaab killed one Somali soldier with an
SVBIED targeting a security checkpoint in Sinka Dheer,
Kahda district.
4. 25 MAR: Al Shabaab detonated an SVBIED at
Sayidka junction near the parliament building. The blast
killed at least six people.
5. 26 MAR: Al Shabaab detonated two roadside IEDs
targeting security forces in Odweyne and 21 October
road, Daynile district.
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1
Sinka Dheer
Parliament building
Wehliye Hotel
Sayidka junction
Odweyne
Mogadishu

7. Maghreb
7
Economic protests spread in Morocco and
Tunisia
present
Wiam Aimade
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3
21 MAR: Tunisian police disrupted an economic protest after demonstrators burned a police station and
blockaded roads in Mdhila town, central Tunisia.
23 MAR: A Tunisian teachers’ union announced plans to strike in response to the Ministry of Education’s
plan to cut salaries.
23 MAR: The Tunisian prime minister announced he will not change plans to reduce the public debt by
cutting wages and social welfare.
25 MAR: Douar El Garaa slum residents protested their forced relocation from Morocco’s capital, Rabat.
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8. Libya
8
Cairo-based unification talks create discord
within Libyan factions
Theresa Fellner
18 MAR: Delegations from the LNA and GNA arrived in Cairo to begin talks on the unification of the Libyan
military. Egypt mediated the meetings.
19 MAR: Participants agreed to separate the military institution from the political process if the delegations
named LNA commander Khalifa Haftar commander-in-chief of the unified army under a new presidential council.
20 MAR: Spokesperson for the Presidency Council’s Ministry of Defense Mohamed Ghasri said that the Cairo
talks would not succeed. GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj dismissed Ghasri in response.
23 MAR: Libyan Grand Mufti Sheikh al Sadiq al Gharyani stated that Egypt should not interfere with Libya’s
domestic affairs and military officers should oppose Egypt’s influence.
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9. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
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10. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
10
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly