CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: December 19, 2017
Yemen The Saudi-led coalition has partnered with new Yemeni factions
against the al Houthi movement after the death of former Yemeni
president Ali Abdullah Saleh. A deal with the Islah party helped coalition-
backed forces break a stalemate against the al Houthis in eastern
Yemen and prepare for an offensive on Sana’a. Coalition-backed
forces are also attempting to seize a key al Houthi port on the Red Sea
with forces previously loyal to Saleh.
Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar rejected the UN-
brokered political agreement, undermining the peace process. Haftar
also signaled his plans to run for president, sparking rallies by his
supporters. Haftar’s move to seize power emboldens hardline factions
among his opponents and sets the stage for a return to active conflict.
Libya
Somalia The U.S. suspended aid to its partner ground force in Somalia due to
rampant corruption. The decision follows visits by U.S. officials that
revealed bases lacking soldiers, food, weapons, and other equipment.
The U.S. will continue to fund U.S.-advised counterterrorism units that
conduct raids on high-value al Shabaab targets.

2. 2
Threat Update: December 19, 2017
The Ethiopian government’s crackdown on the Oromo ethnic
community is escalating. Oromo protesters resumed demonstrations
on October 11 to demand the release of political prisoners. Mass civil
unrest in 2016 caused Ethiopia to withdraw troops from Somalia,
allowing al Shabaab to recapture terrain in the center of the country.
Police violence may cause civil unrest to spread, straining Ethiopia’s
security resources and harming its tourism economy.
Ethiopia
Mali AQIM affiliate Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM)
demonstrated more sophisticated attack planning and execution
capabilities. The group conducted waves of attacks on MINUSMA
forces in Kidal on November 28 and December 15. JNIM will begin
similar operations against the new G5-Sahel force as it becomes
operational.

3. Libya
3Emily Estelle
Pro-Haftar demonstrators support his
presidential run
Haftar supporters rallied in:
December 17
1. Benghazi
2. Tobruk
3. Qubbah
4. Shahat
5. Tripoli
December 18
6. Rujban
1 2
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5
6
Haftar is consolidating his
personal power in the east
and may be gaining limited
support in the west.
See the December 2017 Fighting Forces map for more detail.

4. Yemen
4Randy Morton
Saudi-led coalition-backed forces secure key
road after deal with al Islah party
4
3
2
1
1. 13 DEC: The Emirati and
Saudi crown princes met with
Yemen’s al Islah party
leadership in Riyadh.
2. 15 DEC: Hadi government
forces launched an offensive
and took Bayhan city in
Shabwah governorate.
3. 17 DEC: Saudi-led coalition
airstrikes struck al Houthi
reinforcements.
4. 19 DEC: Hadi government
forces announced full control of
Shabwah and reopened a major
road connecting Shabwah and
Ma’rib governorates.

5. Horn of
Africa
5Matthew Cassidy
Corruption hollows the Somali military
12 OCT: Two Somali defense
cabinet officials resigned over
disagreements with the
president.
30 OCT: The Somali
president fired two cabinet
officials over disagreements
and recent attacks.
14 DEC: The U.S.
suspended aid to SNA units
not advised by U.S. forces
due to corruption.
1
2
3

6. Horn of
Africa
6Matthew Cassidy
Ethiopian government cracks down on Oromo
protests
11 OCT: Oromos demonstrated to
mark the anniversary of October
2016 clashes with security forces.
Protesters demanded the release
of Oromo political prisoners.
1
11 DEC: Ethiopian forces
killed Oromo farmers
harvesting crops, igniting
protests across Oromia.
2
14-17 DEC: Regional Liyu
police killed 29 Oromos in
two villages. Ethiopian forces
did not attempt to stop the
attack.
3

7. Sahel
7
4
2
3
1
JNIM conducts attack waves against MINUSMA
Margarita Kotti
5
7
6
November 28 Attack Targets
1. MINUSMA base in Kidal
2. MINUSMA base in Tessalit, Kidal
3. MINUSMA base in Aguelhok, Kidal
4. MINUSMA patrol in Kidal city
December 15 Attack Targets
5. MINUSMA patrol in Kidal city
6. Two MINUSMA posts in Kidal
7. MINUSMA base in Kidal
Kidal Region
MALI
BURKINA
FASO
ALGERIA
Gao Region
Timbuktu Region
28 NOV
15 DEC
Legend

8. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West
Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
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9. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Assistant
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
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