Tracing the Causal Loops: Local Perceptions of Changing Food Systems in Northern Ethiopia
1. Tracing
causal
loops
through local
perceptions of food
systems in Northern
Ethiopia
Masterclass 26/06/2019
School of Humanities & Languages
UNSW Arts and Social Sciences
dr. Crelis Rammelt
(c.f.rammelt@uu.nl)
Utrecht University
2. eggs (1981) 1 chickens (1982) 1 eggs (1982) 1 chickens (1983) 1 eggs (1983) 1chickens (1981) 1
chickens (1981) 2 eggs (1982) 2 chickens (1982) 2 eggs (1983) 2 chickens (1983) 2eggs (1981) 2
statistical, empirical, time-lagged correlations
...
...
Chickens, Eggs, and Causality, or WhichCame First?
Walter N. Thurman and Mark E. Fisher
Time-series evidence from the United States indicates unidirectional causality from eggsto chickens.
Key words: causality, chickens, eggs.
Granger's seminal paper entitled "Investi-
gating Causal Relations" has spawned a vastand influential literature. In macroeconomics,
for example, the causal relationship
This measure excludes chickens raised only
for meat. Eggs are measured in millions of
dozens and include all eggs produced annually
7. s
o
demand
for eggs
price
of eggs
B
lowering/rising demand leads
to lowering/rising price [2]
rising/lowering price leads
to lowering/rising demand [1]
s
s
number of
chickens
number
of eggs
increasing/decreasing chickens
lead to increasing/decreasing eggs
R
increasing/decreasing eggs lead
to increasing/decreasing chickens
Other examples: ‘the rich get
richer’, ‘power begets power’,
‘self-amplifying beliefs’…
Other examples: ‘when
you’re hungry you eat’,
‘maintaining homeostasis’,
‘self-correcting thermostat’…
13. Africa -
Ethiopia
Kilte Awlaelo - May Quiha and
Adi Kisandid (Tabias)
Tigray - Kilte Awlaelo and Raya
Azebo (Woredas)
Ethiopia - Tigray
(Regional State)
Raya Azebo - Were Abaye and
Hade Alga (Tabias)
14. 5
Kilte Awlaelo - May Quiha and
Adi Kisandid (Tabias)
Bet Kirkos (Kushet)
Tabia centre
15. 5
“the road is our
bloodline”, “roads
lead to heaven”, “the
road is development”,
“the road is life”.
o
o
s
o
s
s
economic
growth
price
fluctuations spatial
isolation
rural roads
poverty and
inequality
16. 5
“A round-trip to Mohoni in the past would take about four days. Now it is possible to
complete all the activities and come back within a day” (M/31, 28-02-15, Were Abaye).
“In the past, we used to walk all the way to Mohoni. Nowadays, we are connected to the
main road from where we can use transportation services” (F/58, 01-03-15, Hade Alga).
“We don’t have transportation facilities. Had there been more bus stops and vehicles up to
this point, then you wouldn’t see people walking” (M/40, 24-02-15, May Quiha).
transportation services
rural roads
mobility and accessibility
17. 5
Rural roads may bring benefits to all, but their distributional effects
are subtler, concealed and delayed. Could this lead to ‘hidden’
dynamics that may worsen rather than reduce social inequities?
“Those who have money can use public
buses” (M/67, 19-02-15, Adi Kisandid). “People
who don't have money can go more comfortably
on foot” (M/67, 01-03-15, Were Abaye).
19. “Agricultural production has improved. One of the reasons is
that the road gave access to fertiliser” (M/43, 23-02-15, May
Quiha).
20. “In the past, we used irrigation water from the river that comes
down the mountain. Now, people upstream have different
crops, especially onion and fruit trees. As a result, the water is
not coming to this downstream area anymore” (M/70,
27-02-15, Were Abaye).
21. “I sometimes buy and use improved seeds in one year
and again reuse harvested seeds. However, new seeds
are always better” (M/41, 23-02-15, May Quiha).
‘‘If there is shortage of moisture, the improved seeds
are more susceptible to drought than local seeds” (M/
41, 23-02-15, May Quiha).
22. ‘‘coffee and khat were
already here [before
the road was
constructed in the late
1990s]. The other
crops, like fruit, were
introduced after
that” (M/31, 28-02-
15, Were Abaye).
23. “Because of road
developments and
irrigation expansion,
people are engaging in
growing similar types
of crops. This has a
negative impact on
price” (M/20,
19-02-15, Adi
Kisandid).
25. “We have farm activities, but we also have those who are in
need of jobs. They need to travel to Wukro and other areas, so
the road is important” (M/60, 24-02-15, May Quiha).
‘‘the road benefits more the poor. If the road and transportation
are available, the poor will have a lot of opportunities to engage
in different day-labouring and business activities, to move here
and there” (F/40, 28-02- 15, Were Abaye).
26. “Compared to other areas, there are more opportunities here” (M/
40, 27-02-15, Hade Alga).
‘‘Yes, the rich also have a lot of opportunities in terms of employing
different people… when there are a lot of labourers, the employers
decrease the wage rate. Sometimes it’s 100 birr and sometimes it’s
80 birr per day. In the worst case it can go down to 30 birr per day”
(F/40, 28-02- 15, Were Abaye).
27. “Construction work in
urban areas is very
competitive. There are a
lot of workers” (M/20,
20-02-15, Adi Kisandid).
“When I go to Wurko for
work, I will stay there for
one or two months… I
will try to save some
money to bring back to
my family” (M/19,
23-02-15, May Quiha).
28.
29. ‘‘So the mobility itself
is development. If I
sell at a better price,
I can produce more
intensively” (M/57,
24-02-15, May
Quiha).
30. s
s
s o
s sbirths deathspopulation
fertility
rate
mortality
rate
time
population
R B
R dominates
R dominates
B dominates
Because systems often have several competing feedback loops operating
simultaneously, those loops that dominate the system will determine the
behaviour (Meadows 2008).
Meadows & Wright (2008) Thinking in systems: A primer.
39. !39
Reduce the spending gap
• Appropriate modes of transportation
• Very localised markets, informal exchange
So what to do?
40. Reduce the income gap
• On-/Off- farm opportunities
• Local/regional non-farm opportunities
41. Reduce the wealth gap
• Improve asset-building programmes
• Ownership and control over new assets
42. Can you see
the forest for
the trees?
mobility and
accessibility
investment
mobility and
accessibility
mobility and
accessibility
mobility and
accessibility
mobility and
accessibility
water depletion
carrying
capacity
input
adoption
external
labour
supply
local
labour
supply labour
wages
labour
demand
capital
irrigation
land
managed
food
sold
profits
revenue
food
prices
food
transportation
to markets
food on
farms
food
production
B
B
B
R
B
B
R
R
B
B
R
B
R B