2. Introduction
This presentation is broken up into several parts;
Firstly we will look at the broad projected trends in
New Zealand's demography in the near to
medium term,
Secondly will then turn to considering projected
changes in the Waikato Region.
Lastly I will make some general comments and
respond to any questions.
2
3. The Big Picture
“21st Century will oversee the slowing and ending of
population growth”
Marsden (2014-16) - The subnational mechanisms of the ending of population growth – towards a theory of depopulation: Tai Timu Tangata; Taihoa e?
Jackson, Maré, Cameron, Cochrane, Brabyn, Pool
3
4. New Zealand Projected Population 2014-2068
4
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
6000000
6500000
7000000
7500000
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 2054 2059 2064
Population
Year
5th 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th 95th
National population projections, 2014(base)-2068, Statistics New Zealand
5. Projected Age Structure, 2014 & 2068
5
5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85 plus
Per cent of Population
AgeGroup
Female Male
5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85 plus
Per cent of Population
AgeGroup
Female Male
2014 2068
Share of population
85 plus ≈ +5 pp
65 plus ≈ +13 pp
15-64 ≈ -9 pp
0-14 ≈ -5 pp
0-4 ≈ -2 pp
National population projections, 2014(base)-2068, Statistics New Zealand
Percentage Change
85 plus ≈ 400 %
65 plus ≈ 160 %
15-64 ≈ 19 %
0-14 ≈ 6 %
0-4 ≈ 5 %
6. Fertility (Children per prime aged women 15-44 years)6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1960 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Fertilityrate
Year
Australia New Zealand Japan China United Kingdom United States
World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics: Population estimates and projections
Replacement rate ≈ 2.1
7. Life Expectancy7
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Lifeexpectancy(years)
Australia New Zealand Japan China United Kingdom United States
World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics: Population estimates and projections
9. Slowing/ending of growth
already with us
2013 Census Usually Resident Population
• North Island 32% CAUs declined (up
from 25% 2001-06)
• South Island 36% CAUs declined (up
from 27% 2001-06)
• Auckland accounted for 52% of
growth 2006-13
• Auckland plus 11 TAs accounted for
75% of growth
• Remaining 25% growth spread very
thinly across 35 TAs (20 declined)
9
Jackson, Cameron and Cochrane, 2013
10. • For New Zealand all growth (2013 –
2031) in 56 (84%) Territorial Authority
Areas is projected to be at 65+
years; all are projected to see
overall decline at 0-64 years:
• Only 11 TAs escape this scenario
• Hamilton is one
• Growth will end in most TAs
Ageing-driven growth10
Jackson, Cameron and Cochrane, 2013
13. Historic Growth in New Zealand Cities13
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
Population
Year
Auckland Christchurch Wellington Hamilton Dunedin Tauranga
Arthur Grimes and Nicholas Tarrant. 2013. "A New Zealand Urban Population Database", Motu Working Paper WP 13-07, Wellington: Motu, www.motu.org.nz.
14. The Population of Selected Waikato Towns
1926-2006
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
Population
Year
Cambridge Huntly Morrinsville Te Awamutu
14
15. Waikato Region Projection 2013-2063
15
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Population
Years
PopulationTotal Working Age 65 plus 0-14 years
Cameron and Cochrane, 2015
16. Experience of Population Change is Very
Varied, Relative growth 2013=100016
Cameron and Cochrane, 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058
TCDC Hauraki Waikato MPDC Hamilton Waipa Otorohanga Waitomo SWDC Taupo
