Please join us for this enlightening presentation as Professor Michael Traugott focuses on the current state of the national presidential race, presenting different scenarios for how it will finish.

1. MikeTraugott
Center for Political Studies
University of Michigan
Wolverine Caucus September 20, 2016

18. Polarization in the Electorate
(Disapprove of a child marrying across parties)

20. 22%
27%
82%

27. Clinton 273 (201 solid, 72 leaning) Trump 191 (158 solid, 33 leaning) Tossup 111 (8 states)

28. Clinton 272 (190 solid, 82 leaning) Trump 163 (127 solid, 36 leaning) Tossup 103 (7 states + 2 EV’s)

31. 8 pp. diff 12 pp. diff 15 pp. diff
Goldstein, Bloomberg Politics

32. NewYorkTimes, September 20