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Attorney’s Guide to the 
Valuation of Intellectual 
Property 
Ben Armitage 
Rich Billion 
Billion & Armitage® 
Intellectual Property that Drives Business® 
Clyde Hanson, CPVA 
Venture Isles, LLC 
The business-side of patents & innovation 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 1
Introduction 
Valuation of intellectual property is not the core work 
of most attorneys. The goal today is to provide a 
working knowledge so you’ll know what questions to 
ask and have a better sense of the process. 
Intellectual property has become the driver of value 
creation in many industries. 
80% of the market value of Fortune 500 is attributed to 
intangible assets, including IP, up from 40% in 1975 
Managing tangible assets is well-established, managing 
intangible assets, less so. “You can’t manage what you can’t 
measure” --Peter Drucker. Valuing IP is basic to managing it 
well. 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 2
Overview 
1. Types of Intellectual Property (IP) 
2. Determining the Valuation Assignment 
3. IP Valuation Methods 
4. Performing Due Diligence 
5. Selecting a Valuation Specialist 
6. Data & Document Gathering: Analyst Support 
7. Reviewing & Interpreting the Valuation Report 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 3
Types of Intellectual Property 
Patents 
Utility 
Design 
Trade Secrets 
Trademarks 
Copyrights 
Domains 
Brands 
Intangible assets that 
can be sold separately 
from the entire firm are 
intellectual property 
Technology-usually pre-commercial 
designs, 
data, and knowhow. 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 4
Considerations: Context of Value 
What is the context? 
 Licensing 
 Selling 
 Buying 
 Litigation 
 Gift 
 Taxation 
 M&A reporting 
 Based on the context, the value 
might change. 
 For example, licensing, buying and 
selling involves negotiation. As a 
result the royalty rate might not be 
indicative of the actual value. 
 Litigation involves damages 
between two adverse parties, who 
were unwilling to come to an 
agreement prior to litigation. 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 5
Purposes of IP Valuations 
Transaction pricing & deal structure 
Finance collateralization & securitization 
Taxation planning & compliance 
Management information & strategic planning 
IP portfolio management decisions 
Bankruptcy & reorganization analysis 
Litigation support & dispute resolution 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 6
Defining the Assignment 
What exactly is the property to be valued? 
How will the valuation be used? 
Value at what date? Current? Historical? 
Who is the audience? What is their focus? 
What level of documentation? 
Does client or analyst select techniques? 
When is the work product needed? 
Who is to be the analyst’s contact? 
Is the existence of the valuation confidential? 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 7
Defining the Assignment 
What definition of value is to be used? Value to whom? 
Fair market value 
Fair value 
Market value 
Acquisition value 
Use value 
Investment value 
Owner value 
Insurable value 
Collateral value 
Ad valorem value 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 8
Defining the Assignment 
Premise of Value: How the value will be created 
Value in continued use, as part of a going-concern 
business enterprise 
Value in place, but not in current use in the production 
of income 
Value in exchange, as part of an orderly disposition 
Value in exchange, as part of a forced liquidation 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 9
Defining the Assignment 
Which, if any, certification standards? 
 Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP)?, Federal 
Court Rule 26?, IRS regulations 197 (Definition and valuation of intangible 
assets), 482 (Intra-company transfer prices), & 170 (qualified appraisal & 
appraiser)? Non-certified? 
What level of precision is desired? 
Maximizing−very existence of the enterprise is at stake 
Optimizing−cost and value of precision is balanced 
Satisfying levels−when lower cost information is “good enough” 
An opinion letter states analyst’s judgment of value based 
on experience without a bottom-up analysis 
Single asset vs. portfolio of related or unrelated assets 
Separate calculations for each asset 
Sampling/ Key assets 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 10
Getting the Lay of the Land 
Is asset an entire product? Business model? Franchise? 
Is it a platform technology? 
Is it a component? 
Is it a sustainable competitive advantage? 
Does it have or justify a premium price? 
Is it a new or established market? 
Who or what is competition? 
Situation of client? Growth? Profitable? Stable? 
Who has more power in the hypothetical transaction? 
Which side may end up with more of the value? 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 11
Risk Lowers Value 
 Risks—Where handled in the valuation? 
 Technology—Will it work? Stay on budget? 
 Execution: Quality of management & workforce 
 Intellectual Property 
 Invalidity risk, claim limitation risk 
 Design-around risk 
 Freedom-to-operate / blocking patents 
 New competition, obsolescence 
 Market acceptance 
 Environment-economy, interest rates, buyer confidence, regulatory 
Risk Adjustments 
Discount interest rate 
Direct increase or decrease in value by factors 
(c) 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 12
General Valuation 
Approaches 
Disaggregate the value question into many smaller 
questions which can be answered with public data or 
assumptions that are are narrower and can be evaluated 
Three traditional approaches like appraising a house 
 Income: values the future benefit stream, then discounts back to a present 
value. Looking ahead. 
Market: uses comparables to establish relative value. Looking around. 
 Cost: cost to create the asset. Looking back. 
Use multiple approaches & techniques in a single valuation 
Reality checks from multiple perspectives 
(c) 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 13
Cost Approach 
Cumulative investment in asset 
 Cost is close to value in building construction, but not all IP 
 Profit leverage of IP can be significant, so cost ≠ value 
Cost Techniques 
 Replacement or Historical Cost 
 Equal Return Payments-ERP 
 “Fair” split of between buyer/seller for more developed assets 
 Both parties earn the same rate of return on their investments 
 Remaining cost to market, Risk-adjusted NPV EBIT 
 Disaggregation of profits by asset class 
 SG&A 
 Reputational IP 
 Technical IP 
 Assumes tangible assets are commodities that don’t earn 
economic rents 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 14
Market Approach 
Compare to values of similar assets sold in an arms 
length transaction in a well-organized market 
Auctions ideal arbiter of value 
Challenge: Thin and secretive IP marketplace 
Adjusting market values to make comparable 
Weighted average, score closest assets higher 
Sources: News releases, IP Offerings quarterly 
newsletter “IP Quotient”, ICAP Auctions (Ocean 
Tomo), court filings & published opinions 
There may be no comparable transactions 
Comparable licenses are more common 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 15
Other Market Techniques 
Rule of Thumb: Poltorak Rule (Base year EBIT * 1.3) 
Current brokerage rate—Pay 1-10% of economic 
benefits in a lump sum payment 
Apply to discount to sum of future royalties 
(Comparable royalty rate applied to the forecast flow of 
(wholesale) sales over the economic life of asset) 
The more predictable & established the royalty flow, 
the lower the current brokerage rate 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 16
Patent Market Technique 
Econometrics-Pantros Patent Value Report 
Predicts a sale price for a patent that considers a 
computer score of the quality of the patent and its 
licensing potential as indicated by patent data. Black 
box, technique proprietary. 
Cumulative economic flows to patent space (size of 
technology area’s share of US GDP) 
Inventors misinterpret market size value as what they 
should get for their patent 
Issued US patents only 
About $250 per report 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 17
Income Approach 
Data Needed 
How big is the market in dollars? Units? 
What is the is the asset’s economic life? 
How much of potential market is reachable profitably? 
What are major segments of the market? 
What marketing channels serve each segment? 
What prices, gross margins and costs are relevant? 
Dealing with Uncertainty 
Rating & scoring 
Probability trees 
Monte Carlo method 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 18
Income Approach Techniques 
Rule of Thumb: 25% Rule (% of EBIT created goes to IP developer) 
Discounted cash flow (NPV) of gross margin or cost savings 
Economic life of asset 
Selecting the discount rate (what risks are covered, cost of capital) 
Examples of Specific Techniques 
NPV (less R&D and launch costs paid by buyer) of EBIT 
NPV with Probabilities Method 
 Technical success 
 Commercial success 
 Cost of failure 
Cost Savings NPV*25% (cost saving are a positive economic benefit) 
Expected Commercial Value 
 Probability of commercial success applies to launch costs 
 Probability of technical success applies to R&D costs 
 Adjusts the present value of future earnings from the asset 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 19
Income Forecast Factors 
Market share growth of asset owner 
Existing solutions will retain some share for some time 
Takes time to sell channels, end-buyers 
 Except phone apps & games, toys, fashion, etc. 
New, non-infringing competitors likely to arise 
Technology adoption curve 
Market share aside, getting customers to adopt a truly 
disruptive innovation is a challenge and takes time. 
Published studies of adoption curves are used by 
analysts 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 20
Combining Results of Several 
Techniques into Single Value 
Analyst judges which techniques are most relevant to 
this situation and weights them higher in the 
calculation of a combined monetary value. 
Written rationale for the weights 
Sensitivity analysis 
Infringement damages usually one approach 
Two Summary Values (Venture Isles practice) 
NPV of the flow of economic benefits 
Likely sale price of asset with & without multiple offers 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 21
Adjusting Combined Value 
Stage of technology development 
Industry openness to innovation 
Number of decision-makers for IP 
Patent and IP quality and quantity 
Litigation tested +15% 
Portfolio size (single patent -15 to -30%) 
Forward citations +1-3% each 
Stature of the inventors 
Economic cycle 
Emerging competition 
Profit flow large enough to justify asserting patent(s)? 
Caution not to double discount for risks © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 22
Valuation Opinion 
Summary statement of value 
Purpose for which valuation was created 
Limitations on use of valuation 
Value “as of” date 
Professional liability boilerplate 
Page 24 in ABC Company example valuation report 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 23
Infringement Damages 
Historical sales/cost data gained through discovery 
Analyst focus is on: 
 Comparable royalty rates; Georgia-Pacific case factors 
 Discount rate justification 
Higher standards for documentation 
Daubert Case Principles for Experts 
 Testable 
 Peer review and publication 
 Acceptable rate of error and maintenance of standards 
 Community acceptance 
Expert witness experience 
Credentials become more important 
Trending toward academics, economists 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 24
Considerations for Marketing IP 
Trademarks—Symbol of the brand, can be shared and 
licensed to go on products of other firms 
Brands—customer perception relative to 
competition; premium price, higher market share, or 
both 
Domain names—ease of use, memorable? Online 
estimators (free). 
Valuation Issues 
Hard to untangle brand & trademark 
Few comparables 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 25
Example: ABC Company 
 Actual valuation, used with permission after redactions & modified 
demand estimates 
 Purpose: Set a reasonable asking price for portfolio and show buyer the 
economic benefits (Value-created) 
 Primary market research on adoption obstacles 
 Value date: calculations going forward till end of patent term (17 years) 
 Portfolio: Patent, trademark, hardware system design & software (p. 4) 
 Potential buyers with 3 business models valued 
 Potential market size—8 market segments sized 
 Addressable market-13-50% of potential by biz model 
 Cash-flow by type of buyer (3) * 8 segments = 24 estimates 
 Valuation by Buyer Type and Market Segments (Field-of-Use) created 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 26
ABC Example: Income 
Approach 
Pages 10-15 covers Income Approach 
US Patent so US only demand estimated 
Other assumptions & comparable royalty results p 11-12 
Five techniques, 4 used in Value-created estimate, 1 in Market (sale 
price) estimate. 1 rule of thumb, 4 NPV calculations 
Excel Workbook model: 9 linked spreadsheets. 
 EBIT & royalty forecasts 
 Technique calculations 
 Industry trend & market segment data and assumptions documented 
Technology adoption curve & market share growth adjust demand 
Econometric technique also in Value-created estimate 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 27
ABC Example: Market 
Approach 
Page 20 of valuation report 
Royalty rate weighted average scoring of comparable 
licenses, 4.17% used 
EBIT based on % of sales in published data for similar 
types of business 
3 techniques, all used in asking price estimate 
Poltorak Rule 
Current Brokerage Rate (2 rates) 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 28
ABC Example: Cost Approach 
Page 15-18 of report 
Two techniques 
Replacement Cost (used in Value-created) 
Equal Return Payment (used in asking price) 
 Lump sum also shown as annual royalty payments 
Calculated by buyer type 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 29
Selecting a Valuation Analyst 
Face-to-face meetings or telecom preference 
Budget 
Deadlines 
Technical/industry expertise 
Working relationship 
Litigation/non-litigation 
IRS/non-IRS audience 
Professional certifications 
A person, not the firm, does the work 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 30
IP Asset Due Diligence 
Team approach 
Patent attorneys 
Business evaluators 
Industry veterans 
Contract attorneys 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 31
IP Asset Due Diligence 
Patent Attorney 
File history review 
Maintenance fees 
Prior art search 
Freedom to operate 
Litigation search 
Docket review 
Claim evaluation 
 Enforceability, coverage, etc. 
Check ownership (assignments, employment 
agreements, etc.) 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 32
IP Asset Due Diligence 
Rest of team 
Any liens or mortgages on IP 
Market/product evaluation 
Industry players 
 Litigious? Potential partners? etc. 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 33
Patent File History Review 
All relevant art cited and review by Examiner 
Limitations disclaimed in prosecution 
Admissions by patent attorney 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 34
Ownership 
Correct inventors 
Assignments or other transfer of rights 
Government rights 
Third party challenges 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 35
Claim Evaluation 
Scope 
Product coverage 
Detectability 
Enforceability 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 36
Best Practices 
Talk to your patent attorney 
Assignments/Ownership locked up 
Employment agreements 
Consultant agreements 
File continuations 
Monitor deadlines, file on outstanding disclosures 
Deal with warts head-on 
Stalled prosecution, third-party issues 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 37
Data & Document Gathering 
Internal data & interviews with key personnel 
Patent, trademark, etc. lists 
Encumbrances to IP assets 
Past offers for the IP 
Litigation history 
Product lists, marketing materials, tech manuals, price 
lists, customer lists 
Product/division/firm financials 
Resource people contact information 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 38
Interpreting Valuation 
Reports 
What was valued and why? 
How was value defined? Value as of when? 
What are the sources for market demand data? 
What methods & techniques were used? 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 39
Reviewing Valuation Reports 
Was the IP understood by the analyst? 
Did the due diligence verify the government 
recognition of the IP? 
Who was interviewed about the IP? 
Are the methods relevant to the situation? 
Are assumptions about the future clear? Reasonable? 
Did independent legal council review the IP? 
Do modeling spreadsheets match the report tables? 
Are risks addressed explicitly? 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 40
IP Valuation: In Conclusion 
Valuing IP is key to maximizing its financial return 
There is a wide-range of valuation types 
Clarification of assignment upfront pays dividends 
How important is the decision the valuation will 
influence to the sponsor of the valuation? 
Better to have a simpler valuation that its users 
understand than a complex one understood only by 
the analyst. 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 41
Q & A 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 42
Special Thanks 
Frank Farrell 
Frank@fsfarrell.com 
Markus Lacis, CPA 
Markus.Lacis@McGladrey.com 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 43
Reference Books 
Valuation and Pricing of Technology-Based 
Intellectual Property, Richard Razgaitis 
Business Valuation Resources (BVR) Guide to 
Intellectual Property Valuation, Michael Pellegrino 
Valuing Intangible Assets, Robert Reilly, Robert 
Schweihs 
Fundamentals of Patenting and Licensing for Scientists 
and Engineers, Matthew Y. Ma 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 44
For More Information 
Clyde Hanson, CPVA 
Clyde.hanson@ventureisles.com 
(612) 418-1192 Minneapolis 
Richard Billion 
rbillion@billionarmitage.com 
(952) 697-2633 
Ben Armitage 
barmitage@billionarmitage.com 
(952) 697-2632 
© 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 45

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Attorney's Guide to the Valuation of Intellectual Property

  • 1. Attorney’s Guide to the Valuation of Intellectual Property Ben Armitage Rich Billion Billion & Armitage® Intellectual Property that Drives Business® Clyde Hanson, CPVA Venture Isles, LLC The business-side of patents & innovation © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 1
  • 2. Introduction Valuation of intellectual property is not the core work of most attorneys. The goal today is to provide a working knowledge so you’ll know what questions to ask and have a better sense of the process. Intellectual property has become the driver of value creation in many industries. 80% of the market value of Fortune 500 is attributed to intangible assets, including IP, up from 40% in 1975 Managing tangible assets is well-established, managing intangible assets, less so. “You can’t manage what you can’t measure” --Peter Drucker. Valuing IP is basic to managing it well. © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 2
  • 3. Overview 1. Types of Intellectual Property (IP) 2. Determining the Valuation Assignment 3. IP Valuation Methods 4. Performing Due Diligence 5. Selecting a Valuation Specialist 6. Data & Document Gathering: Analyst Support 7. Reviewing & Interpreting the Valuation Report © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 3
  • 4. Types of Intellectual Property Patents Utility Design Trade Secrets Trademarks Copyrights Domains Brands Intangible assets that can be sold separately from the entire firm are intellectual property Technology-usually pre-commercial designs, data, and knowhow. © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 4
  • 5. Considerations: Context of Value What is the context?  Licensing  Selling  Buying  Litigation  Gift  Taxation  M&A reporting  Based on the context, the value might change.  For example, licensing, buying and selling involves negotiation. As a result the royalty rate might not be indicative of the actual value.  Litigation involves damages between two adverse parties, who were unwilling to come to an agreement prior to litigation. © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 5
  • 6. Purposes of IP Valuations Transaction pricing & deal structure Finance collateralization & securitization Taxation planning & compliance Management information & strategic planning IP portfolio management decisions Bankruptcy & reorganization analysis Litigation support & dispute resolution © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 6
  • 7. Defining the Assignment What exactly is the property to be valued? How will the valuation be used? Value at what date? Current? Historical? Who is the audience? What is their focus? What level of documentation? Does client or analyst select techniques? When is the work product needed? Who is to be the analyst’s contact? Is the existence of the valuation confidential? © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 7
  • 8. Defining the Assignment What definition of value is to be used? Value to whom? Fair market value Fair value Market value Acquisition value Use value Investment value Owner value Insurable value Collateral value Ad valorem value © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 8
  • 9. Defining the Assignment Premise of Value: How the value will be created Value in continued use, as part of a going-concern business enterprise Value in place, but not in current use in the production of income Value in exchange, as part of an orderly disposition Value in exchange, as part of a forced liquidation © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 9
  • 10. Defining the Assignment Which, if any, certification standards?  Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP)?, Federal Court Rule 26?, IRS regulations 197 (Definition and valuation of intangible assets), 482 (Intra-company transfer prices), & 170 (qualified appraisal & appraiser)? Non-certified? What level of precision is desired? Maximizing−very existence of the enterprise is at stake Optimizing−cost and value of precision is balanced Satisfying levels−when lower cost information is “good enough” An opinion letter states analyst’s judgment of value based on experience without a bottom-up analysis Single asset vs. portfolio of related or unrelated assets Separate calculations for each asset Sampling/ Key assets © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 10
  • 11. Getting the Lay of the Land Is asset an entire product? Business model? Franchise? Is it a platform technology? Is it a component? Is it a sustainable competitive advantage? Does it have or justify a premium price? Is it a new or established market? Who or what is competition? Situation of client? Growth? Profitable? Stable? Who has more power in the hypothetical transaction? Which side may end up with more of the value? © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 11
  • 12. Risk Lowers Value  Risks—Where handled in the valuation?  Technology—Will it work? Stay on budget?  Execution: Quality of management & workforce  Intellectual Property  Invalidity risk, claim limitation risk  Design-around risk  Freedom-to-operate / blocking patents  New competition, obsolescence  Market acceptance  Environment-economy, interest rates, buyer confidence, regulatory Risk Adjustments Discount interest rate Direct increase or decrease in value by factors (c) 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 12
  • 13. General Valuation Approaches Disaggregate the value question into many smaller questions which can be answered with public data or assumptions that are are narrower and can be evaluated Three traditional approaches like appraising a house  Income: values the future benefit stream, then discounts back to a present value. Looking ahead. Market: uses comparables to establish relative value. Looking around.  Cost: cost to create the asset. Looking back. Use multiple approaches & techniques in a single valuation Reality checks from multiple perspectives (c) 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 13
  • 14. Cost Approach Cumulative investment in asset  Cost is close to value in building construction, but not all IP  Profit leverage of IP can be significant, so cost ≠ value Cost Techniques  Replacement or Historical Cost  Equal Return Payments-ERP  “Fair” split of between buyer/seller for more developed assets  Both parties earn the same rate of return on their investments  Remaining cost to market, Risk-adjusted NPV EBIT  Disaggregation of profits by asset class  SG&A  Reputational IP  Technical IP  Assumes tangible assets are commodities that don’t earn economic rents © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 14
  • 15. Market Approach Compare to values of similar assets sold in an arms length transaction in a well-organized market Auctions ideal arbiter of value Challenge: Thin and secretive IP marketplace Adjusting market values to make comparable Weighted average, score closest assets higher Sources: News releases, IP Offerings quarterly newsletter “IP Quotient”, ICAP Auctions (Ocean Tomo), court filings & published opinions There may be no comparable transactions Comparable licenses are more common © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 15
  • 16. Other Market Techniques Rule of Thumb: Poltorak Rule (Base year EBIT * 1.3) Current brokerage rate—Pay 1-10% of economic benefits in a lump sum payment Apply to discount to sum of future royalties (Comparable royalty rate applied to the forecast flow of (wholesale) sales over the economic life of asset) The more predictable & established the royalty flow, the lower the current brokerage rate © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 16
  • 17. Patent Market Technique Econometrics-Pantros Patent Value Report Predicts a sale price for a patent that considers a computer score of the quality of the patent and its licensing potential as indicated by patent data. Black box, technique proprietary. Cumulative economic flows to patent space (size of technology area’s share of US GDP) Inventors misinterpret market size value as what they should get for their patent Issued US patents only About $250 per report © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 17
  • 18. Income Approach Data Needed How big is the market in dollars? Units? What is the is the asset’s economic life? How much of potential market is reachable profitably? What are major segments of the market? What marketing channels serve each segment? What prices, gross margins and costs are relevant? Dealing with Uncertainty Rating & scoring Probability trees Monte Carlo method © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 18
  • 19. Income Approach Techniques Rule of Thumb: 25% Rule (% of EBIT created goes to IP developer) Discounted cash flow (NPV) of gross margin or cost savings Economic life of asset Selecting the discount rate (what risks are covered, cost of capital) Examples of Specific Techniques NPV (less R&D and launch costs paid by buyer) of EBIT NPV with Probabilities Method  Technical success  Commercial success  Cost of failure Cost Savings NPV*25% (cost saving are a positive economic benefit) Expected Commercial Value  Probability of commercial success applies to launch costs  Probability of technical success applies to R&D costs  Adjusts the present value of future earnings from the asset © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 19
  • 20. Income Forecast Factors Market share growth of asset owner Existing solutions will retain some share for some time Takes time to sell channels, end-buyers  Except phone apps & games, toys, fashion, etc. New, non-infringing competitors likely to arise Technology adoption curve Market share aside, getting customers to adopt a truly disruptive innovation is a challenge and takes time. Published studies of adoption curves are used by analysts © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 20
  • 21. Combining Results of Several Techniques into Single Value Analyst judges which techniques are most relevant to this situation and weights them higher in the calculation of a combined monetary value. Written rationale for the weights Sensitivity analysis Infringement damages usually one approach Two Summary Values (Venture Isles practice) NPV of the flow of economic benefits Likely sale price of asset with & without multiple offers © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 21
  • 22. Adjusting Combined Value Stage of technology development Industry openness to innovation Number of decision-makers for IP Patent and IP quality and quantity Litigation tested +15% Portfolio size (single patent -15 to -30%) Forward citations +1-3% each Stature of the inventors Economic cycle Emerging competition Profit flow large enough to justify asserting patent(s)? Caution not to double discount for risks © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 22
  • 23. Valuation Opinion Summary statement of value Purpose for which valuation was created Limitations on use of valuation Value “as of” date Professional liability boilerplate Page 24 in ABC Company example valuation report © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 23
  • 24. Infringement Damages Historical sales/cost data gained through discovery Analyst focus is on:  Comparable royalty rates; Georgia-Pacific case factors  Discount rate justification Higher standards for documentation Daubert Case Principles for Experts  Testable  Peer review and publication  Acceptable rate of error and maintenance of standards  Community acceptance Expert witness experience Credentials become more important Trending toward academics, economists © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 24
  • 25. Considerations for Marketing IP Trademarks—Symbol of the brand, can be shared and licensed to go on products of other firms Brands—customer perception relative to competition; premium price, higher market share, or both Domain names—ease of use, memorable? Online estimators (free). Valuation Issues Hard to untangle brand & trademark Few comparables © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 25
  • 26. Example: ABC Company  Actual valuation, used with permission after redactions & modified demand estimates  Purpose: Set a reasonable asking price for portfolio and show buyer the economic benefits (Value-created)  Primary market research on adoption obstacles  Value date: calculations going forward till end of patent term (17 years)  Portfolio: Patent, trademark, hardware system design & software (p. 4)  Potential buyers with 3 business models valued  Potential market size—8 market segments sized  Addressable market-13-50% of potential by biz model  Cash-flow by type of buyer (3) * 8 segments = 24 estimates  Valuation by Buyer Type and Market Segments (Field-of-Use) created © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 26
  • 27. ABC Example: Income Approach Pages 10-15 covers Income Approach US Patent so US only demand estimated Other assumptions & comparable royalty results p 11-12 Five techniques, 4 used in Value-created estimate, 1 in Market (sale price) estimate. 1 rule of thumb, 4 NPV calculations Excel Workbook model: 9 linked spreadsheets.  EBIT & royalty forecasts  Technique calculations  Industry trend & market segment data and assumptions documented Technology adoption curve & market share growth adjust demand Econometric technique also in Value-created estimate © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 27
  • 28. ABC Example: Market Approach Page 20 of valuation report Royalty rate weighted average scoring of comparable licenses, 4.17% used EBIT based on % of sales in published data for similar types of business 3 techniques, all used in asking price estimate Poltorak Rule Current Brokerage Rate (2 rates) © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 28
  • 29. ABC Example: Cost Approach Page 15-18 of report Two techniques Replacement Cost (used in Value-created) Equal Return Payment (used in asking price)  Lump sum also shown as annual royalty payments Calculated by buyer type © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 29
  • 30. Selecting a Valuation Analyst Face-to-face meetings or telecom preference Budget Deadlines Technical/industry expertise Working relationship Litigation/non-litigation IRS/non-IRS audience Professional certifications A person, not the firm, does the work © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 30
  • 31. IP Asset Due Diligence Team approach Patent attorneys Business evaluators Industry veterans Contract attorneys © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 31
  • 32. IP Asset Due Diligence Patent Attorney File history review Maintenance fees Prior art search Freedom to operate Litigation search Docket review Claim evaluation  Enforceability, coverage, etc. Check ownership (assignments, employment agreements, etc.) © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 32
  • 33. IP Asset Due Diligence Rest of team Any liens or mortgages on IP Market/product evaluation Industry players  Litigious? Potential partners? etc. © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 33
  • 34. Patent File History Review All relevant art cited and review by Examiner Limitations disclaimed in prosecution Admissions by patent attorney © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 34
  • 35. Ownership Correct inventors Assignments or other transfer of rights Government rights Third party challenges © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 35
  • 36. Claim Evaluation Scope Product coverage Detectability Enforceability © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 36
  • 37. Best Practices Talk to your patent attorney Assignments/Ownership locked up Employment agreements Consultant agreements File continuations Monitor deadlines, file on outstanding disclosures Deal with warts head-on Stalled prosecution, third-party issues © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 37
  • 38. Data & Document Gathering Internal data & interviews with key personnel Patent, trademark, etc. lists Encumbrances to IP assets Past offers for the IP Litigation history Product lists, marketing materials, tech manuals, price lists, customer lists Product/division/firm financials Resource people contact information © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 38
  • 39. Interpreting Valuation Reports What was valued and why? How was value defined? Value as of when? What are the sources for market demand data? What methods & techniques were used? © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 39
  • 40. Reviewing Valuation Reports Was the IP understood by the analyst? Did the due diligence verify the government recognition of the IP? Who was interviewed about the IP? Are the methods relevant to the situation? Are assumptions about the future clear? Reasonable? Did independent legal council review the IP? Do modeling spreadsheets match the report tables? Are risks addressed explicitly? © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 40
  • 41. IP Valuation: In Conclusion Valuing IP is key to maximizing its financial return There is a wide-range of valuation types Clarification of assignment upfront pays dividends How important is the decision the valuation will influence to the sponsor of the valuation? Better to have a simpler valuation that its users understand than a complex one understood only by the analyst. © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 41
  • 42. Q & A © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 42
  • 43. Special Thanks Frank Farrell Frank@fsfarrell.com Markus Lacis, CPA Markus.Lacis@McGladrey.com © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 43
  • 44. Reference Books Valuation and Pricing of Technology-Based Intellectual Property, Richard Razgaitis Business Valuation Resources (BVR) Guide to Intellectual Property Valuation, Michael Pellegrino Valuing Intangible Assets, Robert Reilly, Robert Schweihs Fundamentals of Patenting and Licensing for Scientists and Engineers, Matthew Y. Ma © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 44
  • 45. For More Information Clyde Hanson, CPVA Clyde.hanson@ventureisles.com (612) 418-1192 Minneapolis Richard Billion rbillion@billionarmitage.com (952) 697-2633 Ben Armitage barmitage@billionarmitage.com (952) 697-2632 © 2014 Armitage, Billion, Hanson 45