The presentation by Martin Coul, Founder of The Coul Room, a boutique and independent advisory firm based in Lausanne, Switzerland specializing in Mobile solutions development. It was presented at the Ciklum Mobile Seminar in Munich on March 22, 2012

1. Then, now and the future direction of mobile
Ciklum Seminar, Munich, 22/03/12

2. About:
The Coul Room is a boutique, independent advisory firm based in
Lausanne, Switzerland specializing in all things Mobile. They
recently presented the highly acclaimed Swiss Mobile Basecamp -­­
an iniHaHve to boost mobile startups in Switzerland and help
them succeed beyond the Swiss borders. The Coul Room shares
it's mobile industry insights, internaHonal contacts and inHmate
kn o wl ed ge o f th e wi rel es s val u e ch ai n wi th as p i ri n g
entrepreneurs, startups, corporates and investors both inside Martin Coul,
and beyond the Swiss borders. Founder

4. ~14 years at the epicentre of mobile:

5. Then, now and the future direction of mobile…

6. Technology Forecasting:
‘People tend to overestimate
what can be done in one year
and to underes.mate what can
be done in five to ten years’
JCR Licklider 1965
JCR Licklider: 1915-­­1990

7. 24 th June 1998:
+ + +
=

8. +
(1997) Psion Series 5 (1996) Nokia 9000
Communicator
=
(2000) R380: World’s (2000) N9210: Color,
First Smartphone. Fax, Email, Web,
Office
(2002) 7650: First (2005) N95: GPS, 5mp
Nokia with built in Carl Zeiss lens, Wi-­­Fi,
camera. TV Out, Music Player.

10. 11 th February 2012:

11. Ericsson
R380 Danger
Sidekick
Nokia 9000 Siemens SX1 iMate SPL
Communicator Fujitsu
F-­­022
SEMC
P800
Mitsubishi
D705i
Motorola
U9 Nokia
N9
Palm Pre
Palm V
Source: Vision Mobile, The Coul Room Analysis

12. Bill & Andy’s Excellent Adventure II
“We have a dream of improving the lives
of many millions of people by means of
small, intimate life support systems that
people carry with them everywhere.
These systems will help people to
organize their lives, to communicate
with other people, and to access
information of all kinds. They will be
simple to use, and come in a wide range
of models to fit every budget, need, and
taste. They will change the way people
live and communicate.”
Source: hhp://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.04/general.magic_pr.html

13. 1994 & The UI of tomorrow?

14. Take a closer look!:
1994: Magic Cap UI 2008: HTC Dream UI
Source: San Francisco Mobile

15. Steve Job’s vision:
“The problem is, in hardware
you can't build a computer
that's twice as good as
anyone else's anymore…but
you can do it in software.”
Steve Jobs: 1955-­­2011
Source: Rolling Stone Magazine 1994

16. Then, now and the future direction of mobile…

17. The plaoorm conundrum!?:

18. Apps drive the platforms core
business – not content profits:

19. App Downloads
01.02 -­ 01.02.2012 (Germany):
German Downloads in February 2012 (M)
72m
140
Android
120
100
41m 80
German Downloads in February
2012 (M)
60
iPhone 40
20
0
8.3m Android iPhone iPad WP7 Total
iPad • Est. 49m downloads a day via Apple’s App Store
• <4 years to reach 25 billion downloads
• 8.5 years to reach 16 billion iTunes song downloads
2.2m
Source: Xyologic
WP7

20. Smartphone shipments as % of
total unit shipments (2008-­­2011):
1.63bn mobile phones sold worldwide during 2011. Out of these 483m were smartphones.
Nokia are selling 12x S40 phones every second and have an installed base of 1.5bn devices
The smartphone market grew by 43% in 2011,from nearly 300 million shipments in 2010 to
over 480 million in 2011.
Source: Vision Mobile, Nokia

21. Mobile is the wild west:
But so is the new sheriff!

23. Apps tap consumer $$$ beyond
telecoms :
Source: Vision Mobile & US consumer expenditure survey 2009

24. Mobile is the single biggest global
distribution plaoorm:
Source: San Francisco Mobile & Vision Mobile

25. Then, now and the future direction of mobile…

26. Innovation & Emerging Markets:

27. Windows phone will establish itself:
• 3rd Ecosystem
• Emerging markets &
Nokia Life tools
• Metro & Windows 8
• Strong IP Poroolio
• Nokia’s retail channel
• RIM won’t survive
Disclaimer: The Coul Room holds no stock/investments in Nokia or MSFT

28. Connected Life in 2020:
Total
connected
devices will
reach 24
billion
worldwide!
Source: GSMA

29. Remember me?:
‘People tend to overestimate
what can be done in one year
and to underestimate what
can be done in five to ten years’
JCR Licklider 1965
JCR Licklider: 1915-­­1990

30. Thanks for listening!
martin@thecoulroom.com |@thecoulroom