Battery market worldwide

1. The Rechargeable
Battery Market and
Main Trends 2015-2025
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT
IMLB 2016
June 20th, 2016
Chicago, USA
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Presentation Outline
• The rechargeable battery market in 2015
• The Li-ion battery value chain
• Li-ion battery material market
• Forecasts & conclusions

2. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2014
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2015 2020
NumberofEVsoldworldwide(Million)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
2
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MillionHEVpoweredbyLIB IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007
REALITY
AAB (2012)
AVICENNE 2007-2012
ROLAND BERGER (2011)
IIT (MARCH 2010)
ROLAND BERGER (2012)
DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)
IIT (MARCH 2011)
AAB (2008)

3. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
3
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2015
MillionUnits/year
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
165 M
Portable
PCs
207 M
Tablets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2015
MillionUnits/Year
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2000 2015
Tonsofcathode/Year
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000 2015
$/Wh
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

4. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
MWh
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
4
2015: EstimationsSource: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments

5. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
MWh
Others (Flow battery,
NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000MWh
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
5
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016 2015: Estimations

6. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990
2000
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015
BillionUS$
Others (Flow
battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
65 BILLION US$ in 2015 – Pack level1
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2015)
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990
2000
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015
BillionUS$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
E-BIKES
POWER TOOLS
PORTABLE
SLI
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…
PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,
POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools
INDUSTRIAL
• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others
• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator
Starting, Control & Switchgear,
AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV
OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen
concentrators
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
2015: Estimations

7. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2015: US $ 65 BILLION
Portable
Automotive
SLI
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000Others
SLI
Automotive
Portable
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
ESS
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
7
Battery market in 2015 (M$)
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Lead Acid LIB
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
ESS
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
US $ > 21
Billion for
“other”
applications

8. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
LI-ION IN 2015
MAIN APPLICATIONS
8
(1) Cell level
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
5 600 M cells – 60 000 MWh
16 700 M$ (1)
CAGR 2005/2015
+22 % per year in Volume
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
MWh
Li-ion Battery sales,
MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others
Industrial,
ESS
Auto, E-bus
China
Auto, e-bus
Excl. China
Electronic
devices
Phones
17%
Portable PC
66%
Portable
Electronics
17%
2000: < 2GWh
2015: 60 GWh
Electronic
devices
50%
Auto, E-bus
Excl. China
15%
Auto, E-bus
China
16%
Industrial, ESS
8%
Others
11%

9. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
LI-ION IN 2015
MAIN APPLICATIONS
CAGR 2005/2015
+22 % per year in Volume
Cell: +15% per year in value
Pack: +10% per year in value
9
5 600 M cells – +60 000 MWh
16 700 M$ (cell level)
Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
M$
Li-ion cells
M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others
Industrial,
ESS
Auto, E-bus
China
Auto, e-bus
Excl. China
Electronic
devices
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
M$
Li-ion Packs
M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…

10. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND
10
CATHODE
>140 OOO T in 2015
Revenues: 2,9 B$
CAGR 05/15: +16%
ANODE
>76 000 T
Revenues: 1 B$
CAGR 05/15: +14%
ELECTROLYTE
>62 000 T
Revenues: 0,9 B$
CAGR 05/15 : 20%
SEPARATOR
900 M m²
Revenues: 1,1 B$
CAGR 05/15 : 15%
CELL
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
16,7 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
ANCILLARY
Revenues: 1 B$
PACK
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
>22 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

11. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
CATHODE ACTIVE
MATERIALS NEEDS
Cathode active materials for LIB
in Tons, 2000-2015 (Demand)
(…)
LEADERS:
Internal
2% Nichia
9%
Umicore
15%
B&M
10%
Easpring
6%Reshine
15%
L&F
15%
Other
China
8%
Others
2%
Shan
Shan
9%
PULEAD
9%
LCO – 40 KT (2015)
NMC – > 40 KT (2015)
Nichia
13%
Umicore
24%
Others
8%
Internal
19%
L&F
9%
ShanShan
11%
Reshine
4%
Chinese
9%
EASPRING
3%
LMO – > 17 KT (2015)
LFP – > 32 KT (2015)
Nichia
5%
Nippon
Denko
4% Yuan
Yuan
4%
JGC
11%
Qyanyun
12%
ShanShan
9%
Chinese
33%
Reshine
8%
Mitsui
14%
INTERNAL
36%
JOHNSON
MATTHEY
8%ALEEES
7%
STL
8%
Pulead
9%
Zhuoneng
8%
Tatung
3%
Others
21%
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
2000
2005
2010
2015
Tons
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
NCA – > 14 KT (2015)
Toda Kogyo
16%
Sumitomo
58%
Nihon
Kagaku
Sangyo
13%
Ecopro
5%
Others
8%

12. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
FORECASTS 2000-2025
Cathode active materials
2000-2025 - Tons
Cathode active materials in
2015: > 140 000 Tons
12
ASSUMPTIONS:
Portable devices:
2015-2025: +6% per year in volume
HEV
4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB
6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB
P-HEV
0,4 M P-HEV/year + 0,5 M in China in 2020, 0,6 M in 2025 + 1M in China
100% LIB
EV
0,6 M EV/year in 2020 + 1M in China, 1M/year + 1,5 M in China in 2025
100% LIB
Industrial & stationary
2015-2025: +16% per year
Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success
(200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)
LCO
27%
NMC
28%NCA
10%
LMO
12%
LFP
23%
Cathode active materials in
2025: 400 000 Tons
LCO
16%
NMC
48%
NCA
9%
LMO
11%
LFP
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Tons
LCO NMC NCA
LMO LFP China (%)

13. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
13
ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS
> 75 000 TONS IN 2015
LIB Anode Materials
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Source: Sanyo, March 2013
LIB Anode market, (Tons)LIB Anode Materials
Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Tons
LTO
Si or Sn Type
Amorphous
Carbon
Meso-Phase
Artificial Graphite
Natural Graphite

14. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2015
LIB separator market, M$,
CAGR 2005/2015: +16%
LIB Separator supplier, market
share in 2015
14
Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior
Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
M$
Evonik, TEIJIN,
HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:LEADERS:
ASAHI
24%
TORAY
21%
SUMITOMO
7%
ENTEK
2%
SK
11%
CELGARD
11%
UBE
9%
Senior
4%
Green
4%
Others
7%
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy
Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore’s battery separator
business

15. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS
> 60 000 TONS IN 2015
LIB electrolyte market, Tons,
CAGR 2005/2015: +25%
LIB electrolyte supplier, market
share in 2015
15
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Tons
Industrial Auto & E-Bus China
Automotive (12v, HEV, PHEV, EV) E-bikes
Power Tools Portables electronics
Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:LEADERS:
Zhangjiagang
Guotai-Huang JINNIU
Ube
4%
Mitsubishi
12%
In-House
9%
Tomiyama
3%
PANAX-
ETEC
8%
Zhangjiagan
g Guotai-
Huarong
15%
Mitsui
3%
Jinniu
8%
Capchem
14%
Shanshan
8%
Soulbrain
5%
TINCI
6%
Others
5%
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

16. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
2015-2025
Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book
Cellular Phones, Smart-phones
Tablets
Camcorders
Cordless Tools, Gardening tools
Digital Camera
Games, MP3
Cordless Phones
Shavers, Toothbrush,
RC Cars
E-bikes
Power tools
Security lighting
Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV
Industrial motive (forklift)
Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom)
Medical
Energy Storage (Small / large)
Applications covered Parameters analysis
16
Main segment trends
Power need trends (volume,
weight, capacity, running time)
Penetration rate for each
Chemistry, each form factor,
2013 -2025 Forecasts
OEM strategies and positions
Main drivers & limiters

17. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE
ELECTRONIC DEVICES
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by
application (3C)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
by form factor (3C)
17
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mcells/year
Li-P
Li-ion Pr
Li-ion Cyl
Takeshita - March 2013 (1)
(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference
Slide p 4
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
CAGR 15-25: + 6%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
MWh
Otherr Portable
Electronics
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones

18. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
0
50
100
150
Million barrel per day
Price of the WTI1 barrel of oil,
US $
MAJOR DRIVER: CO2 regulation
worldwide: From 2013 to 2014
Oil price decrease but HEV sales
increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30%
and EV by 60%
18
WHY X-EV ?
Petroleum consumption worldwide
1960-2030
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1973
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
GasolinePrice–US$/Gallon
CrudeOilPrice-US$/Barrel
Source: Energy Information Administration, US
Government
Source:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Note
1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2012 2015 2020
CO2Emission(g/km)
Europe USA Japan China

19. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
19
HEV, P-HEV & EV
DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
EV & HEV
MARKET
EV
25 kWh
HEV
0.6-2 kWh
batteries
MICRO
HEV*
MILD
HEV
MEDIUM
HEV
FULL
HEV
P HEV
10 kWh
batteries
CITROEN C2, C3
BMW 3Series
Fiat 500
Hyundai i10
Hyudai i30
Kia
Smart for2
Toyota Yaris
Toyota Auris
VW Passat
…..
GM Saturn Vue
GM AURA
GM MALIBU
HONDA
ACCORD
HONDA CIVIC
INSIGHT
MERCEDES
S400
TOYOTA PRIUS
TOYOTA CAMRY
FORD ESCAPE
FORD FUSION
MILAN
GM YUKON
GM TAHOE
NISSAN ALTIMA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $
Fuel saving Vs. Cost
HEV
P-HEV
EV

20. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2015
1,8 M HEV
HEV sold per year, M units,
worldwide, 2000 - 2015
Penetration of hybrids in the
global sales, 2000-2015
20
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Million
TOYOTA OTHERS
USA
JAPON
EUROPE0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Penetrationofhybrids
intheglobalesales
Growth 2014-2015: -3%
From 1,9 M to 1,8 M HEV
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
GasolineUS$/Gallon
HEVsalesperyear(US)
Gazoline price impact on HEV
market in the US

21. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
21
Others: Smart (3400), Fiat (4500), Bollore (1200), PSA (2700), GM
(2700), Daimler (4500),
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2015 (YEARLY)
+48%
+61%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
P-HEV sales
Others
Others China
SAIC
BYD
AUDI
Volvo
Mitsubishi
VW
Ford
Toyota
GM Volt,
Ampera
US
18%
JAPAN
5%
EUROPE
37%
CHINA
34%
Others
6%
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
EV sales
Others
Other China
JMC
CHERY
JAC
Geely
BAIC
Zotye
Kandi
BYD
KIA
VW
BMW
Honda
Toyota
Tesla
Renault
Ford
MITSUBISHI
NISSAN
US
20%
JAPAN
5%
EUROPE
29%
CHINA
41%
OTHERS
5%

22. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
22
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)
> 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)
TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015
0 2000 4000 6000
PANASONIC
NISSAN Motor US
Sony
BYD
LG Chem
JCI
A123
Sanyo
Ener1
Nissan-Renault (Fr)
Dow Kokam
GS YUASA
SB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle Energy
Lithium Energy Japan
Rusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem
Nissan - Renault (UK)
Toshiba
Blue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port)
Lishen
BAK
SAFT US
SAFT
Hitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC Japon
NEC Tokin
Mitsubishi H.I.
SK Energy
Panasonic EV
LiTec GmbH
TESLA (2014-2017)
BYD (2013 - 2015)
ATL (2014 - 2017)
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average 2012-2014
Investments:
250 $ / kWh
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016
2014 – 2017
TESLA, ATL, BYD
Investments:
150 $ / kWh
TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 2015

23. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
SAFETY ISSUES
23
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further
development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High
chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the
charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The
growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled
their projects
BackgroundMobile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
AutomotiveAircraft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety
concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode
(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a
crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)
(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company
without any authorisation by Toyota)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

24. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
24
Some technologies are already out of the game due to
stability issues
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

25. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
The research and development in this industry is very long and
time consuming.
Time to market to commercialize a new material is long.
Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in
1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin
membrane. It was 20 years ago.
LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago)
Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago).
So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new
material in the battery industry.
25

26. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
26
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

27. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2015-2025
LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)
(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
27
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year(1) Active materials only
2020 20252015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Cell
Pack
Cell
Pack
Cell
Pack
$/kWh
Pack Cost
Cell
Manufacturing
Other Materials
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode
Cathode
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2015 2020 2025
$/kWh
Margin
Warranty
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Scraps
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode (1)
Cathode (1)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

28. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
HEV FORECASTS
2000-2020
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
HEVpenetration(%oftotalcarsales)
USA EUROPE JAPAN
OTHERS WORLD
HEV MARKET: <2 M units in 2015 – 2,5 M in 2020 – 3,2 M in 2025
28
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Million
USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS
Micro hybrid not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016

29. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS
0,9
1,8
2,5
3,2
0,17
0,4
0,65
0,35
1
1,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020 2025
Millioncars
EV
P-HEV
HEV
2013 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV &
EV market forecasts up to 2025
2016 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV &
EV market forecasts up to 2025
29
Thanks to very high incentives, China will change the
game
0,9
1,8
2,5
3,1
0,16
0,38
0,62
0,27
0,75
1,1
0,5
1
1
1,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020 2025
Millioncars
EV in China
P-HEV in China
HEV in China
EV
P-HEV
HEV

30. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
XEV BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV
Battery needs (MWh)
CAGR 2015-2025: +21%
Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV
Battery needs (M$)
CAGR 2015-2025: +14%
30
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2010 2015 2020 2025
MWh
12-48 volts SLI HEV
PHEV EV
EV & PHEV China E-bus China
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2015 2020 2025
M$
12-48 volt SLI
HEV
P-HEV
EV, E-Bus
EV, PHEV & E-Bus China

31. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
31
Powered by Advanced lead acid
batteries
Much more profitable than full
HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive
than full HEV to save 5% gasoline
instead of 20% (4 times less)
Much more impact on CO2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020
Million
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
Optimistic
Scenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Battery Advanced lead
acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($) 300 3000
Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehicle
sold per year in
2020
35 3.5

32. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
32
Standard
Leadacid
Batteries
2010
2015
2020
AFTER
Li-ionbatteries
NiMHbatteries
STANDARD CAR
88.5%
EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
AdvancedLeadacid
NiMH
STANDARD CAR
44%
MICRO HYBRID
50%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERY
Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel CellsLi-ion

33. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
33
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016
Lead Acid Batteries
+360 GWh for > US $ 37 Billion
60%
35%5%
SLI
Industry, ESS
Others
24%
22%
12%
40%2%
Telecom
UPS
Other
Stationary, ESS
Forklift
Other motive
Industrial Batteries
60 GWh for US $ 13 Billion
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
MWh
Others (Flow
battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
% In value
% In value

34. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2015: US $ 65 BILLION
Portable
Automotive
SLI
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000Others
SLI
Automotive
Portable
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
ESS
#REF!
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
34
Battery market in 2015 (M$)
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Lead Acid LIB
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
ESS
#REF!
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
US $ > 21
Billion for
“other”
applications

35. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET ANALYZED
IN THE SURVEY (M$, PACK LEVEL1)
Application details US$ 21 Billion in 2015 (1)
35
E-Bikes
14%
Power Tools
7%
Forklift
20%
Other Motive
1%
Telecom
16%
UPS
12%
ESS
15%
Medical devices
8%
Others
5% E-Bikes Power Tools
Forklift Other Motive
Telecom UPS
ESS Medical devices
Marine Others
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC
converters, invertors…) not included
2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2013
1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 116

36. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
ESS SEGMENTATION
36
Services provided by Energy Storage System (ESS)
Regulation
Arbitrage
Investment
deferral
Grid
independe
nt power
supply
• Reconcile momentary differences
caused by fluctuations in
generation and/ or loads
– Frequency regulation
– Voltage support
– Load following/ ramping support
– Power quality
Back-up
and
reserves
• Provide emergency power when
utility power is not available
– UPS (Uninterruptible power
supply)
– Power continuity
– Reserves to face lose of one
generator
Black start
• Provide an active reserve of power
and energy to (re)start power
generator
• Store energy when the price of
electricity is low and releases it on
the grid when prices are high
• Enable deferral of utility
investments by using relatively
small amounts of storage
– Congestion relief
– Avoid infrastructure investment
• Provide electricity power supply in
an area not connected to the grid
e.g.
– Rural community
– Based stations powered by
Solar energy
On grid services
Off grid services

37. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
ESS SEGMENTATION
37

38. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
ESS MARKET & FORECASTS
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2015 2025
MWH
Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
UPS (18)
Power continuity, Telecom (17)
ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20)
From 36 GWh to 65 GWh in 2015
CAGR: +6%
ESS excl Telecom & UPS
CAGR: +13 to 15%
38
Source: AVICENNE Energy, 2016
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2015 2025 2025 Opt.
MWH
Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20)
Li-ion
28%
Others
72%
Li-ion
52%
Others
48%

39. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
39
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
From 60 GWh in 2015 to
215 GWh (1)
CAGR 2015/2015
+15 % per year in Volume
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
MWh
Li-ion Battery sales,
MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others
Industrial,
ESS
Auto, E-bus
China
Auto, e-bus
Excl. China
Electronic
devices
2015: 60 GWh
2025: 215 GWh
Electronic
devices
50%
Auto, E-bus
Excl. China
15%
Auto, E-bus
China
16%
Industrial, ESS
8%
Others
11%
Electronic
devices
26%
Auto, E-bus
Excl. China
19%
Auto, E-bus
China
37%
Industrial, ESS
9%
Others
9%
11%
16%
24%
16%
6%
CAGR 15/25

40. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
CAGR 2005/2015 +15 % per year in Volume
Cell: +9% per year in value
Pack: +8% per year in value
40Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
M$ Li-ion cells
M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others
Industrial,
ESS
Auto, E-bus
China
Auto, e-bus
Excl. China
Electronic
devices
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
M$
Li-ion Packs
M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…

41. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
TAKEAWAYS
41
Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS,
Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs &
electronic devices (smartphones, tablets)
In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota)
switch to Li-ion
P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion:
8 B$ market in 2015 - 21 B$ in 2020 & 27 B$ in
2025 with high growth un China
EV expectations attract large Chemical
companies
New materials are needed to meet Automotive
standards
HEV will account for less than 5% of the
automotive sales in 2020
P-HEV & EV < 2-3%% by 2020
Micro-hybrid will achieve >50%
Lead acid battery will be the first market in
2025 in volume & value
A very small EV market in the automotive world
will represent a huge market for batteries
New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift,
Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15%
in the next 15 years
Energy storage will reach 10 Billion $ market at
the pack level in the next 5 to 10 years and
could become a huge market if the Li-ion
battery cost system < 150$/kWh.
Battery Market 2010-2025
CAGR = +10%
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2025
2000 2010 2020 2025
MWh
Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)
NiMH (-9%) LIB for 3C (+0%)
LIB for xEV (+13,5%) LIB for Others* (+8%)
Others (+15%)
25 B$
29B$
64 B$
88 B$
> 105 B$
280 GWh
380 GWh
575 GWh
775 GWh
9
10
52
(CAGR 2014-2025)
27
(Pack level) 4,3
40B$

42. Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
June 20th, 2016
CHICAGO, USA
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
42