This document summarizes the economic outlook for South Carolina in 2021. It finds that while the state's economy rebounded strongly over the summer and fall of 2020, full recovery is not expected until mid-2021 at the earliest due to continued struggles in the leisure and hospitality industry and supply constraints in the housing market. Vaccine dissemination provides hope, but increasing COVID cases and typical year-over-year slowing could impact growth rates in the second half of 2021.

1. 1/19/21
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Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D.
Research Economist
January 19, 2021
joey.vonnessen@moore.sc.edu
The 2021 South Carolina Economic Outlook
Charting the Winding Road to Recovery
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We’re Almost Back!
(Or Are We?)
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2. 1/19/21
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Total South Carolina Employment Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
Month/Month Percentage Job Gains
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
Jan.'20 Feb.'20 Mar.'20 Apr.'20 May.'20 Jun.'20 Jul.'20 Aug.'20 Sep.'20 Oct.'20 Nov.'20
3
Total South Carolina Employment Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
Month/Month Percentage Job Gains
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
Jan.'20 Feb.'20 Mar.'20 Apr.'20 May.'20 Jun.'20 Jul.'20 Aug.'20 Sep.'20 Oct.'20 Nov.'20
-12.6%
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Total South Carolina Employment Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
Month/Month Percentage Job Gains
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
Jan.'20 Feb.'20 Mar.'20 Apr.'20 May.'20 Jun.'20 Jul.'20 Aug.'20 Sep.'20 Oct.'20 Nov.'20
+3.6%
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+0.8%
Total South Carolina Employment Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
Month/Month Percentage Job Gains
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
Jan.'20 Feb.'20 Mar.'20 Apr.'20 May.'20 Jun.'20 Jul.'20 Aug.'20 Sep.'20 Oct.'20 Nov.'20
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1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
Jan.'20 Feb.'20 Mar.'20 Apr.'20 May.'20 Jun.'20 Jul.'20 Aug.'20 Sep.'20 Oct.'20 Nov.'20
Total South Carolina Employment Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
Month/Month Percentage Job Gains
-3.4%
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South Carolina Employment Recovery in 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
Current Pct. of Pre-Pandemic (Feb.’20) Employment Levels
-18.0%
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Leisure and Hospitality All OtherS.C.Sectors
-16.5%
-1.5%
Excluding Leisure & Hospitality, S.C.
employment levels are only down
1.5% compared to Feb.’20
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Charleston Employment Growth Trends: 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-NSA
Year/Year Employment Growth
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Leisure & Hospitality All OtherSectors
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County-Level Unemployment Recovery
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2019, April & November 2020
Fairfield
12.2 %
Fairfield
12.2 %
Fairfield
12.2 %
November 2019 = 2.4% April 2020 = 12.8% November 2020 = 4.4%
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County-Level Unemployment Recovery
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2019, April & November 2020
Fairfield
12.2 %
Fairfield
12.2 %
Fairfield
12.2 %
November 2019 = 2.4% April 2020 = 12.8% November 2020 = 4.4%
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South Carolina 2020 Unemployment Rates
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
February
M
arch
April
M
ay
June
July
August
Septem
ber
O
ctober
Novem
ber
2.5%
3.2%
12.8% 12.4%
8.7% 8.7%
6.4%
5.2%
4.2% 4.4%
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U.S. Consumer Spending: Durable Goods
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
$1,800
Jan.'11 Jul.'11 Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20
Note: Values Represent Annualized Totals, in billions
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U.S. Consumer Spending: Non-Durable Goods
Note: Values Represent Annualized Totals, in billions
$2,300
$2,400
$2,500
$2,600
$2,700
$2,800
$2,900
$3,000
$3,100
$3,200
Jan.'11 Jul.'11 Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20
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-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Oct.'19 Nov.'1 9 Dec.'19 Jan.'20 Feb.'2 0 Mar.'20 Apr.'2 0 May.'20 Jun.'20 Jul.'20 Aug.'20 Sep.'2 0 Oct.'20 Nov.'2 0
Loaded Exports Loaded Imports
S.C. Charleston Port Container Volume Growth
(Year/Year Pct. Change)
Source: South Carolina Ports Authority, January 2021
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U.S. Consumer Spending: Services
Note: Values Represent Annualized Totals, in billions
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
$8,000
$8,500
$9,000
$9,500
$10,000
$10,500
Jan.'11 Jul.'11 Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20
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What Do These Trends Mean for
Charleston Housing Markets?
Demand is likely to remain
strong in 2021
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Source: Multiple Listing Service and Moore School of Business
Charleston Monthly MLS Sales: 2012-2020
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21
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Source: Multiple Listing Service and Moore School of Business
Charleston Monthly MLS Sales: 2012-2020
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21
Sales activity in Winter 2020 comparable
to Summer of 2019
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Why?
• Fewer employment losses among potential homebuyers
• Migration patterns strongly favor South Carolina
• More disposable income and higher savings rates
• Low interest rates
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Charleston Employment Growth Trends: 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-NSA
Year/Year Employment Growth
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Leisure & Hospitality All OtherSectors
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Charleston Job Losses and Housing Affordability
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Maximum house price assumes a dual income household and a mortgage qualification at approximately 3x annual household income
Industry
Reduction in
Employment
(Nov’.19 vs. Nov.’20)
Median
Annual Wage
Estimated Max.
House Price
Leisure and Hospitality -26.3% $20,425 $122,550
All Other -2.1% $57,177 $343,062
$260 ,000
$280 ,000
$300 ,000
$320 ,000
$340 ,000
Dec.'18 Dec.'19 Dec.20
$289,108 $292,264
$339,931
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58.1%
4.1%
33.5%
4.3%
Projected Pct. of U.S. Population Growth: 2020-2040
Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, UVA, 2020
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Source: Multiple Listing Service and Moore School of Business
Charleston SF Median Annual House Price Growth
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21
+16.0%
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Yet 2021 Year/Year Growth in Housing Sales
Could Be Flat or Negative by Q3 or Q4
How is that Possible?
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(1) A record year in 2020 is hard to top
(2) Severe supply constraints
• Pending sales now exceeds the number of active listings
• New sales as a percentage of total sales is unusually high
Two Primary Reasons
Negative Year/Year Growth in this Case Would
Not Imply a Market Downturn
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What’s Next for U.S. & S.C. Economic Recovery?
More economic headwinds coming, but there is
light at the end of the tunnel!
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15. 1/19/21
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COVID-19 Case Increases
Vaccine Dissemination Has Begun
$900B Fiscal Stimulus Package
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S.C. Possible Emp. Recovery Scenarios
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA & Division of Research
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21 Jul.'21 Jan.'22 Jul.'22 Jan.'23 Jul.'23
Historical Lower Upper
Aug. 2021
Nov. 2022
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• South Carolina’s economy has experienced a strong rebound throughout the
Summer and Fall months, with most major sectors now approaching pre-
recession employment levels
• The primary exception to this statewide recovery trend has been the Leisure
& Hospitality industry, which cannot fully recover until a vaccine is widely
available
• Residential housing demand likely to remain strong, though the rate of
growth could flatten or even decline in 2021q3 and 2021q4 due to supply
constraints
• Full recovery for South Carolina’s economy in which employment rebounds
to pre-pandemic levels is not currently expected until at least mid-2021, but
exact timing depends on how quickly the vaccine becomes widely available
The Bottom Line
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Thank You!
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