This document summarizes the outcomes of a multi-stakeholder dialogue event called Think2030 that brought together over 100 academics and experts. It produced 15 papers on sustainability challenges in Europe aimed at providing science-based policy solutions. The event developed a series of policy recommendations for the next European Commission and Parliament. It also created a new forum and network for ongoing discussion of sustainability issues in Europe among think tanks, businesses, authorities and civil society.

1. RTD library talk: How to reinvent R&I
to meet the sustainability challenge?
Lessons from Think2030
Céline Charveriat, Institute for European Environmental Policy
16 September 2019

2. • Outcome of multi-stakeholder dialogue: More than a
hundred academics experts from civil society, private sector
and local authorities
• 15 papers covering a range of sustainability challenges aimed
a providing science-policy solutions for a more sustainable
Europe
• Series of policy recommendations ahead of the next
commission and parliament
• Active engagement of MEPs, political parties and EC staff

3. EEA: 2018 PERFORMANCE INDICATOR: Priority objective 1: ‘to protect, conserve and
enhance the Union’s natural capital’

4. EEA: 2018 PERFORMANCE INDICATOR: resource-efficient low-carbon economy’

5. EEA: 2018 PERFORMANCE INDICATOR: environment risks to health and well-being’

6. Think 2030 model of change
More ambitious and
evidence-based
sustainability agenda
for the next European
Commission and next
European parliament
Timely production of policy-
relevant body of evidence
New forum for discussing
sustainability issues in
Europe
New network of
sustainability think tanks in
Europe, businesses, local
authorities and civil society
FINAL OUTCOMES
INCREASED CAPACITY
More effective
sustainability think tank
sector/academia in
Europe, becoming a
catalyst for change
IMPROVED GOVERNANCE
Stronger policy/science
interface on sustainability
issues in Europe
INTERMEDIARY OUTCOMES
Awareness raising of
European decision-makers
and influencers
Better informed citizens
BETTER KNOWLEDGE
Greater clarity regarding
2030 sustainability
opportunities and
challenges in Europe
including interlinkages
MORE EFFECTIVE
INFLUENCING
Engagement of decision-
makers and influencers
with the sustainability
agenda
IMPACT

7. Governance

8. Post-2020 planning: governance 2030
– Europe is not on track to achieve the 7th EAP and the SDGs
– Policy not sufficiently driven by science and evidence/Siloeing leads to policy
mistakes
– Europe’s 2020 strategy and the 7th Environmental Action Plan were conceived
before the SDGs and the Paris agreement
– “In the long-term we are all dead”…..Long-term targets risk a lack of attention to
short-term action as having a ‘2050’ time horizon can give a false sense of having
time
– The better regulation agenda has not necessarily led to more effective
environmental policy and the implementation gap remains

9. Moving forward: What does this mean for
the Post-2020 EU strategy?
• New European Commission workplan
• SDG Implementation Strategy
• European Semester & Member State strategies
• 8th Environmental Action Plan
• MFF & sectoral EU strategies
Which targets &
indicators to
track
sustainability and
SDG progress?

10. Policy recommendations and
implications for R&I
R&I: a means to achieve sustainable development i.e. the SDGs, COP21 and
other relevant commitments, rather than seeing it as an end in itself.
• Solutions for these different challenges is unlikely to be possible simply
through innovative technology alone.
• Interlinkages are key—what does this mean for R&I?
• Foresight and back-casting (“vision without implementation is….”)
• Need for systemic changes incl. the widespread adoption of sustainable
practices (behavioural change as well as social, and governance innovations)
• Creating societal acceptability (innovation in governance, action-based
research, social accountability frameworks)
• What regulatory frameworks for sustainable innovation (and what limits)?
From ideological fight on innovation vs. precaution to risk/opportunity
assessment based on back-casting based on 2050 pathways; major ethics
issues ahead (e.g. geoengineering) .
• Sustainable development requires global solutions - Prioritise actions with
positive external EU R&I spill-overs
• Increased public R&I expenditure is essential to address societal challenges,
and thus to leverage additional private investment.
• How to strengthen evidence based policy making?
• SDG-aligned science-based targets to 2030 based on back-casting
from 2050 with corresponding monitoring framework and rapid
feedback loops.
• European Panel for Sustainability (EPS), an independent, high-level
scientific multidisciplinary body, reporting to the European Council

11. Prosperity

12. Still no decoupling of Europe’s growth
Domestic material consumption= Domestic Extraction Used + IMP – EXP i.e. the amount of materials
directly used by an economy including the annual quantity of raw materials extracted from the
domestic territory, plus all physical imports minus all physical exports.
Material footprint (MF) = Domestic Extraction Used + (IMP + IFimp) – (EXP +IFexp). i.e. MF does
account for the ‘hidden flows’ of raw materials embodied in the production of traded goods. e.g.
all the raw materials that were needed to produce the good which is imported, e.g. cell phones.
Imports of electric and electronic products accounted for 75% of EU consumption of these goods
in 2012.
Sources: EEA, Wiedmann et
al. 2015

13. Prosperity: Sustainable
consumption, Europe’s biggest and
most intractable challenge
• Link to growth: Household + public sector
consumption=75% of Europe GDP
• Trends are not going in the right direction
• Scale of change required: 80% reduced of material
footprint per capita required by 2050
• Deep societal and behavioural issues
• Radical demand-reorientation policies required
towards efficiency and sufficiency (i.e. radical
departure from current EC plans)
• Metrics challenge: foot printing methodologies
aligned with all planetary boundaries

14. Policy recommendations and how they relate to
the Europe’s R&I agenda
Increased support for eco-innovation: What are hurdles to massive scale up
in eco-innovation?
A clean macro-economic, monetary and growth framework:
• What is truly decoupled, regenerative and resilient growth which is not
mass consumption-based?
A coherent mid-century decarbonisation and circular economy strategy
• What is the European model of low-carbon circular industry which
reduces material footprint per capita and waste generation?
• How to govern negative emissions technologies?
A comprehensive European policy for sustainable consumption:
• How do you get there (reduction of demand through efficiency and
sufficiency)? What does sustainable living look like for a European by 2050?
• How to mainstream consumption within research missions?
A new approach to Europe’s food systems (production, consumption, trade)
• How to decarbonise agriculture while restoring biodiversity (how to use
the €10bn allocated to the food and natural resources cluster)?
• Interdependencies between decarbonisation of cities and rural areas
(rurban decarbonisation and material efficiency)

15. Well-being

16. • Highest levels of life expectancy but
living beyond the means of the planet
and social justice not achieved
• Health and the environment
• Poverty, inequality and sustainability
• Impact of environmental degradation on
health
• Nature as a medicine?
• A healthier and more sustainable diet
• Access to green spaces in urban areas has a
positive impact on happiness physical and mental
health

17. Leaving no one behind: What relationship between people in poverty and the
natural environment in Europe?
People in povertyEnvironmental
status
What exposure to
pollution and
other
environmental
hazards ?
What reliance on
natural
resources/ecosystems
services for livelihoods
and access to essential
goods?
What
relationship with
specific
behaviours and
cultures?
Key socioeconomic variables
• Degree of poverty
• Household composition
• Rural/urban
• Age
• Country and region (incl. Outermost
regions)
• Sector of occupation
• Minorities/indigenous peoples
What capacity to cope
with environmental
shocks (information,
income, coping networks
and mechanisms)?
Policy recommendations:
Close the knowledge gap regarding the interlinkages
between poverty, multidimensional inequality and
sustainability.
What relationship with
other vulnerabilities and
constraints (access to
quality housing, health
services)?

18. • Pricing and availability of essential
goods and services (food, energy,
mobility, lifestyles)?
• Impact on income opportunities
(employment, wages and livelihoods)?
• Pricing of assets (e.g. car, housing)?
• Impact on well-being and health?
• Transitory or permanent effects?
Environmental
policies
Risk of negative side effects
Risk of exclusion from benefits
(unequal access and lack of targeting)
Policy recommendations:
• Understand whether a transition to sustainability would have a
differentiated impact on people in poverty and design policies
accordingly
• Identify policies that would both reduce poverty and support
sustainability
People in
poverty
Leaving no one behind: What relationship between people in poverty and the
natural environment in Europe?

19. Multidimensional inequality and the
environment in Europe
- Impact of the sustainability transition on employment (volume and quality): still
not understood.
- Growing income inequality in Europe: what correlation between income levels
and carbon footprint? What could be double-benefits policies?
- Intergenerational equity: youth more at risk of poverty and the challenge of
“just and green old age” (political over-representation, impact on fixed income --
pensions and assets, lifestyles change in an aging society)
- Urban/rural: differential challenges around lowering carbon and material
footprint per capita.

20. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Policy recommendations and how
they relate to the Europe’s R&I agenda
• Close the knowledge gaps
• Develop understanding of the connections between poverty,
multidimensional inequality (generation, geography, gender, race,
income) and sustainability in Europe.
• Design double benefit scale solutions, which both
address inequality and sustainability.
• How to mainstream social justice issues within all research
missions?
• Develop a comprehensive environmental health
strategy
• How to mainstream environment within health policies and
research missions, both in terms of negative and positive
correlations?
• Ensure the adequate representation of the interests of
both youth and future generations, by establishing an
EU Guardian for future generations.
• How to mainstream intergenerational equity within all research
missions?
Model of growth?
De-siloing tax reform
debates?
More specific
Recommendations for
cities and rural areas?

21. Nature

22. • Biodiversity: The EU Sustainable Development
Strategy established the target to halt biodiversity loss
by 2010 already—continuously shifting the goal post
when faced with failure.
• Oceans: The ocean might no longer be able to supply
key ecosystem services, including fishing and climate
regulation
- Biomass: Transition to bio-economy could create
pressures on natural resources, 1:1 substitution
between fossil fuels and bio economy is not
possible—max. scale needs to be defined.
- Soil: Increase in soil sealing since 2009 (Eurostat)/High
sensitivity to desertification on about 8% of the EU
land base/soil pollution
- Fresh waters: Only 40% of EU waters now meet the
standards for ecological quality/water-stressed
countries and regions
Rapid destruction of our natural
capital

23. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Policy recommendations and
implications for R&I
• Adopt an ambitious EU biodiversity 2030 strategy, with smarter
targets, specifying how biodiversity will be valued, further loss halted
and large scale restoration achieved
• How to achieve large scale restoration?
• How to make nature-based solutions central to climate action?
• A new “Value-Based” approach to the ocean
• How to turn the ocean from a place to exploit to a place to value?
• A sustainable bioeconomy strategy, ensuring that the transition from
fossil to bio-based resources remains within the scale compatible with
SDGs and planetary boundaries.
• What optimal scale for the bioeconomy?
• A fresh review of the challenge of improving soil management in
Europe, exploring the option of a common policy.
• What soil policies for Europe?
• An increased focus across the Member States on implementing their
Water Framework Directive commitments more fully
• How to stimulate more investment in water conservation?

24. Peace and security

25. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Peace and security
- Pressure on natural resources: The pressure on and
competition over natural resources can be considered
as one of the key peace and security challenges of the
21st century.
- Environmental spill over effects of the EU’s economic
model: GHGs, pollution, biodiversity losses and land
degradation, etc..
- Changing nature of military risk and missions: new
sources of risk, intervention within changed
conditions, greater focus on humanitarian aid and
disaster response incl. support to civil authorities
(conflict prevention and peacebuilding)

26. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Policy recommandations and
implications for the R&I agenda
• Greening Europe’s security agenda--what impact for Europe’s
research agenda?
• Adopt a comprehensive horizon scanning and early warning
system for environmental and climate change risks
• Integrate a security and resource sufficiency lens within
flagship environmental policies.
• Adopt dedicated initiative(s) to improve the awareness and
capacity of the EU and Member States defense sectors
• How to factor in and address the negative spill- over effects of
Europe’s own economic model on other countries?
• At least do no harm (maximise + and minimise – spill overs)
• Fair share of efforts
• Key topic for many policy areas (agriculture, trade)
• Major challenges in terms of policy relevant metrics
• Better understanding of net reallocation of carbon or
material use dynamics—what would be the optimal?

27. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What next for IEEP and
Think2030?
• Research agenda arising from
Think2030
• Managing MSPs for research
• Next Think2030 conference (possibly
in Germany last quarter of 2020)
• Strengthening of science-policy
interface processes
• Effectiveness of the policy-relevant
knowledge sector in Europe

28. 30x30 Actions for a Sustainable Europe #Think2030 Action Plan. David Baldock and Céline Charveriat
Sustainable bio-resource pathways towards a fossil-free world: The European bioeconomy in a global development context. Holger Hoff and
Francis Johnson (SEI), Ben Allen (IEEP), Lisa Biber-Freudenberger, and Jan Janosch Förster (ZEF)
Mobilising EU trade policy for raising environmental standards: The example of climate action. Susanne Dröge and Felix Schenuit (SWP)
Ocean protection: why citizens’ values matter. Andrew Farmer (IEEP)
Securing clean growth for the EU. Nick Molho and Alex White (Aldersgate Group)
How to ensure a just and fast transition to a competitive low-carbon economy for the EU? Rebekka Popp, Pieter de Pous, and Jonathan
Gaventa (E3G)
A long-term strategy for a European circular economy – setting the course for success. Romain Pardo (IEEP) and Jean-Pierre Schweitzer (EEB)
Advancing Sustainable Development Goals within Europe and Globally: The Role of the EU. Leida Rijnhout (Stakeholder Forum) and Ruben
Zondervan (Stakeholder Forum & Earth System Governance Project)
Think 2050, Act 2020: Bringing European ambition and policies in line with the Paris Agreement. Matthias Duwe (Ecologic Institute) and Lola
Vallejo (IDDRI)
Aligning EU resources and expenditure with 2030 objectives. Eero Yrjö-Koskinen (Green Budget Europe) and Martin Nesbit (IEEP)
Feeding Europe: Agriculture, sustainability and healthy diets. Ben Allen (IEEP), Faustine Bas-Defossez (IEEP), and Jes Weigelt (TMG)
Valuing biodiversity and reversing its decline by 2030. Matt Rayment (independent), Alberto Arroyo (IUCN), David Baldock, Gustavo Becerra,
Erik Gerritsen, Marianne Kettunen, Stephen Meredith, Evelyn Underwood and Graham Tucker (IEEP)
Sustainable consumption – policy approaches for systems change.
Mia Pantzar (IEEP), Susanna Gionfra (IEEP), Rosa Strube (CSCP), and Kristina Modée (CSCP)
Moving towards a circular economy for plastics in the EU by 2030. Emma Watkins (IEEP) and Jean-Pierre Schweitzer (EEB)
Reinforcing the Environmental Dimensions of the European Foreign and Security Policy. Marianne Kettunen and Johanna Nyman (IEEP),
Dominique Noome (Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change – GMACCC), with support from Ronald A. Kingham (GMACCC)
Sustainable Development Goals and the EU: the external and internal policy nexus. Marianne Kettunen, Catherine Bowyer, Lucia Vaculova, and
Celine Charveriat (IEEP)
References