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Value Line Investment Research
1.
160 120 100 80 60 50 40 30 20 15 Percent shares traded 120 80 40 Target Price Range 2018
2019 2020 FACEBOOK,INC.NDQ-FB 102.58 87.7 NMF NMF 4.77 Nil TIMELINESS 1 Raised 11/13/15 SAFETY 3 New 8/17/12 TECHNICAL 4 Lowered 11/13/15 BETA .75 (1.00 = Market) 2018-20 PROJECTIONS Ann’l Total Price Gain Return High 130 (+25%) 6% Low 85 (-15%) -4% Insider Decisions D J F M A M J J A to Buy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Options 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 to Sell 5 6 8 4 8 11 7 8 11 Institutional Decisions 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 to Buy 685 698 764 to Sell 427 461 422 Hld’s(000)146690514981931539911 High: 45.0 58.6 82.2 105.1 Low: 17.5 22.7 51.8 72.0 % TOT. RETURN 10/15 THIS VL ARITH.* STOCK INDEX 1 yr. 36.0 -1.3 3 yr. 383.0 49.3 5 yr. — 73.5 Facebook was founded by Mark Zucker- berg and fellow students at Harvard Univer- sity in 2004. The company was incorporated in Delaware in July of 2004. Facebook com- pleted its initial public offering on the NAS- DAQ Global Select Market in May of 2012. The total offering comprised 421,233,615 shares of Class A stock, initially priced at $38 per share. Morgan Stanley was the lead manager. CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 9/30/15 Total Debt $126 mill. Due in 5 Yrs. $106 mill. LT Debt $109 mill. LT Interest $7 mill. Leases, Uncapitalized: Annual rentals $155 mill. Pfd Stock None Common Stock 2,817,545,492 (2,259,736,529 Class A shares and 557,808,963 Class B shares)C as of 7/27/15 MARKET CAP: $289 billion (Large Cap) CURRENT POSITION 2013 2014 9/30/15 ($MILL.) Cash Assets 11449 11199 15834 Receivables 1109 1678 2010 Inventory (FIFO) - - - - - - Other 512 793 1295 Current Assets 13070 13670 19139 Accts Payable 87 176 149 Debt Due 239 114 17 Other 774 1134 1626 Current Liab. 1100 1424 1792 ANNUAL RATES Past Past Est’d ’12-’14 of change (per sh) 10 Yrs. 5 Yrs. to ’18-’20 Revenues - - - - 24.0% ‘‘Cash Flow’’ - - - - 28.0% Earnings - - - - 32.5% Dividends - - - - Nil Book Value - - - - 18.0% Cal- Full endar Year QUARTERLY REVENUES ($ mill.) Mar.31 Jun. 30 Sep. 30 Dec. 31 2012 1058 1184 1262 1585 5089 2013 1458 1813 2016 2585 7872 2014 2502 2910 3203 3851 12466 2015 3543 4042 4501 5214 17300 2016 5000 5500 5800 6200 22500 Cal- Full endar Year EARNINGS PER SHARE A Mar.31 Jun. 30 Sep. 30 Dec. 31 2012 .09 d.08 d.02 .03 .02 2013 .09 .13 .17 .20 .60 2014 .25 .30 .30 .25 1.10 2015 .18 .25 .31 .36 1.10 2016 .25 .35 .42 .48 1.50 Cal- Full endar Year QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 2011 2012 NO CASH DIVIDENDS 2013 BEING PAID 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010D 2011D 2012 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - .30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - .02 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - .52 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4.96 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2372.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - NMF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - NMF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1974.0 3711.0 5089.0 - - - - - - - - - - 59.3% 56.0% 23.3% - - - - - - - - - - 139.0 323.0 649.0 - - - - - - - - - - 606.0 1000.0 53.0 - - - - - - - - - - 39.9% 41.0% NMF - - - - - - - - - - 30.7% 26.9% 1.0% - - - - - - - - - - 1857.0 3705.0 10215 - - - - - - - - - - 367.0 398.0 1991.0 - - - - - - - - - - 2162.0 4899.0 11755 - - - - - - - - - - 24.3% 19.3% .6% - - - - - - - - - - 28.0% 20.4% .5% - - - - - - - - - - 39.2% 23.3% .5% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2013 2014 2015 2016 © VALUE LINE PUB. LLC 18-20 3.09 4.46 6.10 7.90 Revenues per sh 12.95 .99 1.50 1.75 2.20 ‘‘Cash Flow’’ per sh 4.10 .60 1.10 1.10 1.50 Earnings per sh A 3.10 - - - - Nil Nil Div’ds Decl’d per sh Nil .53 .65 .85 .95 Cap’l Spending per sh 1.30 6.07 12.91 15.20 16.50 Book Value per sh E 22.20 2547.0 2797.0 2825.0 2850.0 Common Shs Outst’g B C 2700.0 59.2 62.7 Bold figures are Value Line estimates Avg Ann’l P/E Ratio 35.0 3.33 3.28 Relative P/E Ratio 2.20 - - - - Avg Ann’l Div’d Yield Nil 7872.0 12466 17300 22500 Revenues ($mill) 35000 48.5% 50.0% 45.0% 46.0% Operating Margin 51.0% 1011.0 1243.0 1850 2000 Depreciation ($mill) 2600 1500.0 2940.0 3135 4315 Net Profit ($mill) 8450 45.5% 40.1% 42.0% 42.0% Income Tax Rate 40.0% 19.1% 23.6% 18.1% 19.2% Net Profit Margin 24.1% 11970 12246 18000 20000 Working Cap’l ($mill) 27500 237.0 119.0 120 130 Long-Term Debt ($mill) 200 15470 36096 43000 47000 Shr. Equity ($mill) E 60000 9.7% 8.2% 7.5% 9.0% Return on Total Cap’l 14.0% 9.7% 8.1% 7.5% 9.0% Return on Shr. Equity 14.0% 9.7% 8.1% 7.5% 9.0% Retained to Com Eq 14.0% - - - - Nil Nil All Div’ds to Net Prof Nil Company’s Financial Strength A Stock’s Price Stability 15 Price Growth Persistence NMF Earnings Predictability NMF (A) Diluted earnings. Next earnings report due late January. Earnings per share may not sum due to rounding. (B) In millions. (C) Class A stock is entitled to one vote per share and Class B stock is entitled to ten votes per share. (D) Data pro forma. (E) Includes intangibles. At 12/31/14, $21,910 mill., $7.83 per share. BUSINESS: Facebook, Inc. operates the world’s leading social networking service through its flagship Web site. The company’s Web-based tools allow users to connect and communicate with each other. Had about 1.55 billion monthly active users at 9/30/15. Generates nearly all revenue from advertising and from fees asso- ciated with its payments infrastructure. Had 9,199 full-time employ- ees at 12/31/14. Officers and directors own 3.8% of Class A shares and 84.5% of Class B shares (includes Mark Zuckerberg, 75.5%); Dustin Moskovitz, 8.7% of Class B; Eduardo Saverin, 8.4% of Class B (4/15 Proxy). Chairman and CEO: Mark Zuckerberg. Inc.: DE. Address: 1601 Willow Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025. Telephone: 650-543-4800. Internet: www.facebook.com. Shares of Facebook have rebounded nicely in price over the past couple of months, following a selloff in late Au- gust. The company has posted impressive revenue growth in recent periods, though greater operating costs have hurt share- earnings comparisons. The top line contin- ues to benefit from growth in the user base. In the third quarter, monthly active users increased 14% on a year-to-year basis, and mobile monthly active users ad- vanced 23%. Mobile advertising revenue comprised roughly 78% of total ad reve- nue, up from 66% in the second quarter of 2014. The company’s growth prospects ap- pear favorable. Facebook is well posi- tioned in the social networking space, and will probably further benefit from increas- ing worldwide Internet usage. Positive trends in member engagement are also promising. Growth in mobile advertising should remain the most important driver of performance. We anticipate healthy rev- enue growth from several different ave- nues, including the Instagram platform. As video consumption grows across the so- cial network’s vast user base, it should be able to attract a greater percentage of companies’ ad budgets. Targeted online video advertisements should increasingly appeal to marketers going forward. Facebook has been investing heavily in projects and newly acquired businesses in order to help these endeavors reach mass scale. Greater operating expenses associa- ted with such investments ought to contin- ue to constrain profitability in the near term, but we still look for solid share-net improvement going forward. Moreover, the aforementioned investments will probably contribute to profitable growth down the road. This stock is ranked to outperform the broader equity market for the coming six to 12 months. We anticipate healthy growth in revenues and share earnings for the company in 2016, and over the pull to 2018-2020. However, this appears to be partly reflected in the recent quotation, and long-term capital appreci- ation potential is not compelling at this time. As a result, investors with a long term horizon may find more-attractive choices elsewhere. Michael Napoli, CFA November 13, 2015 LEGENDS . . . . Relative Price Strength Options: Yes Shaded area indicates recession © 2015 Value Line, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscriber’s own, non-commercial, internal use. 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