The document discusses strategies for reversing declining attendance in mainline Protestant churches based on research and recommendations from reports. It finds that growing churches focus on clarifying their mission, moving people through small groups and leadership roles, and aligning resources to children's/youth programs. While recommendations call for reform and measuring results, no implementation plan has been forthcoming from church leadership. The document suggests two books outlining effective church strategies focused on clarity, movement, alignment and focus.

1. A Strategic Approach to Reversing the Decline in Church Attendance
Developing a clear path to move people through the stages of spiritual growth
by Carla Kettrick, May 2014
Status of Mainline Protestant Churches in the U.S.
Mainline Protestant Churches continue their decline. The United Methodist Church, Evangelical
Lutheran Church in America, Presbyterian Church, American Baptist Church and United Church
of Christ all report continued declines in membership in 2012 - a trend that began decades ago.
These findings are reported by the National Council of Churches.
While attendance declines, the age of membership increases. Members of mainline Protestant
churches are older, on average, than members of other groups. Roughly half of the members of
mainline churches are age 50 and older, compared with approximately four-in-ten American
adults overall, according to Pew Research (http://religions.pewforum.org/reports)
"At the current rate of decline from the last five years, we have less than 50 years of The United
Methodist Church in the United States," the Rev. Adam Hamilton told the full body of the
recently-completed 2012 General Conference, the denomination's top lawmaking assembly.
Hamilton is the senior pastor of United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, Kan.
(http://www.umc.org/news-and-media/2011-numbers-show-US-members-still-sliding)
United Methodist Church Call to Action
In the Fall of 2009, the United Methodist Council of Bishops created the Call to Action Steering
Team. Some of the reasons for this effort were the four-decade decline in membership; an
aging and predominantly Anglo constituency; declines in worship attendance. The team
noted some of the aspirations of the church, not currently being met, are more participation and
engagement with young people, more expectation for growth in worship and involvement in
missions and less acceptance of status quo of membership decline, and more giving to
direct ministry and less to administration and governance.
Here are the findings noted in the Steering Team Report:
“While there are many examples of effective disciple-making, prophetic witness, and ministries
of justice and mercy across the Connection, these efforts do not obviate the effects in the United
States and Europe of our increasingly older membership and aging leaders; declines in the
numbers of professions of faith, worship attendance, and baptisms; and growing financial
burdens accompanied by decreasing revenues.
Thus, the adaptive challenge for The United Methodist Church is:
To redirect the flow of attention, energy, and resources to an intense concentration on fostering
and sustaining an increase in the number of vital congregations effective in making disciples
of Jesus Christ for the transformation of the world.
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2. To do so requires that we:
• Change our mindset so that our primary focus and commitment is on fostering and
sustaining congregational vitality (see The Book of Discipline 2008, pars. 201, 202)
• Articulate and commit to newly clarified and dramatically higher performance
expectations for all levels of the church
• Expect and provide courageous, accountable leadership that assumes responsibility for
upsetting current paradigms and shaping and adopting new understandings that result in
more effective practices—and that this begin with the Council of Bishops
• Institute and report measurable performance results in all sectors of the Connection on an
ongoing and regular basis, enabling us to learn and adjust the ways we invest and use our
talent, time, and money. Leaders, beginning with the bishops and including lay and clergy
across the Connection, must lead and immediately, repeatedly, and energetically make it plain
that our current culture and practices are resulting in overall decline that is toxic and constricts
our missional effectiveness. We propose a set of mutually interdependent initiatives.
Leaders, beginning with the bishops and including lay and clergy across the Connection, must
lead and immediately, repeatedly, and energetically make it plain that our current culture and
practices are resulting in overall decline that is toxic and constricts our missional effectiveness.
We propose a set of mutually interdependent initiatives.
Key Recommendations
1. For a minimum of ten years, starting in January 2011, use the drivers of Vital Congregations
(see appendix 5, Potential Drivers of Congregational Vitality) as initial areas of attention for
sustained and intense concentration on building effective practices in local churches.
2. Dramatically reform the clergy leadership development, deployment, evaluation, and
accountability systems. To redirect the flow of attention, energy, and resources to an
intense concentration on fostering and sustaining an increase in the number of vital
congregations effective in making disciples of Jesus Christ for the transformation of the
world.
3. Collect, report and review, and act on statistical information that measures progress in
key performance areas to learn and adjust our approaches to leadership, policies, and the use
of human and financial resources (this will include indicators such as how congregations and
annual conferences are increasing their effectiveness in implementing the three factors of
vitality from the Towers Watson report: attendance, growth, and engagement).
4. Reform the Council of Bishops, with the active bishops assuming (1) responsibility and public
accountability for improving results in attendance, professions of faith, baptisms, participation
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3. in servant/mission ministries, benevolent giving, and lowering the average age of participants
in local church life; and (2) establishing a new culture of accountability throughout the church.
5. Consolidate program and administrative agencies, align their work and resources with the
priorities of the Church and the decade-long commitment to build vital congregations, and
reconstitute them with much smaller competency-based boards of directors in order to
overcome current lack of alignment, diffused and redundant activity, and higher than
necessary expense due to independent structures.”
Vital Congregations Research—(Towers Watson Report)
Reliable statistical findings based on massive amounts of data from over 32,000 congregations
show that high-vitality churches consistently share common factors that work together to
influence congregational vitality and are characterized by the prevalence of:
• Effective pastoral leadership including inspirational preaching, mentoring laity, and effective
management
• Multiple small groups and programs for children and youth
• A mix of traditional and contemporary worship services
• A high percentage of spiritually engaged laity who assume leadership roles”
This report can be found at http://www.umc.org/who-we-are/call-to-action.
Common Themes in Growing Churches
Many of the recommendations for creating (or common factors of) vital congregations are
repeated:
• Measuring performance
• Lowering the age of participants
• Improving attendance
• Aligning resources
• Small groups and Environments for children/youth
• Contemporary services
These areas of focus are a common theme among growing churches. Here are some
examples:
• La Jolla Presbyterian has doubled the number of young families in recent years by
targeting this demographic through their programs, practices and budget investment. They
are one of the few mainline Protestant churches in our area that is growing. A $3.5 million
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4. campaign is currently underway to help pay for upgrades to their facilities for children and
families. You can see their campaign information at http://ljpres.org/campaign/.
Contemporary and traditional services are offered. Number of children infant to high school
on Sunday is roughly 110. The budget for children and youth ministry is over $40k.
• Solana Beach Presbyterian is another growing church that has invested heavily in their
Children’s Ministry - recently building a new $12 million children’s ministry building.
Measuring their performance is common practice. According to their 2103-2014 annual
report, they have 550 people in small groups (currently the number is closer to 700) and
nearly 75% of their membership is under the age of 65. Contemporary and traditional
services are offered. Due to their growth, a second contemporary service will likely be added.
Number of children K-6th is 175-225, depending on the year. The Children’s and Youth
Ministry budget is roughly $24k.
• Grace Church San Diego, established in 1912, was originally Scott Memorial Baptist Church
before re-establishing themselves as non-denominational in 2007. Their steady growth since
2007 is largely attributed to their rebranding and a large focus on young families in the
community. Following the model (according to their Life Development Pastor) outlined in the
book Simple Church, they align resources, simplify their process with a simple mission
statement (Worship, Connect, Serve, Reach), and narrow their focus with fewer programs.
This is evident in their strategy. On their website, it states “All ministries fit within the mission
of Grace. The primary ministries for Grace are weekend services and small groups.” Only
contemporary services are offered. Number of children infant to 5th grader is 175. K-5th is
75. Children’s Ministry budget is about $9k. http://gracesd.com/discover/what-is-our-mission/
• Summit Community Church is a non-denominational church established in 2003. Their
target market is young families. In the past 7 years, they have grown from 80 members to
an average worship attendance of 550. Monthly staff reports measure their performance in
all areas of ministry. Their focus is growth groups (small groups) and children’s ministry.
Number of children infant to 5th grade is 130. Children’s Ministry budget: $11k.
Where is the Plan?
While the recommendations of the Call to Action Steering Team are very convincing and, of
course, necessary for the growth of United Methodist churches, there is something missing - the
plan. The Call To Action Steering Team made the recommendations, but the Council of Bishops
has stalled. No plan is forthcoming.
In August 2012, Bishop Robert Schnase, of the South Central Jurisdictional Conference in
Oklahoma City delivered the episcopal address published in the United Methodist Reporter.
Hear are a few excerpts:
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5. “The Council of Bishops commissioned the Towers Watson Report, a 250-page in-depth
analysis of our denomination. It shows an irrefutably unsustainable model for ministry into the
future.”
“It’s clear that we cannot look to General Conference to save us, and we cannot rely on General
Conference to make decisions that will help us reverse the trends. We need to stay focused on
what we are about in our conferences and congregations, focused on doing Christ’s ministry
with excellence, fruitfulness, accountability.”
“For us, the priorities and recommendations of the Call to Action are not finished; they have
hardly begun.”
An open letter to the Delegates of the 2012 General Conference said among other things, “We
believe that the downward trends in church membership, attendance and giving will accelerate
in the years ahead. If we do nothing, our church will be half the size she is today in twenty
years. Now is the time for action….Ultimately, the revitalization of the United Methodist Church
will happen one congregation at a time through local church leadership. The average age of our
clergy is 58. Our question: Who are the leaders that will reach and connect with today’s 5, 10
and 15 year olds? That is the question we must ask as a church. Now is the time to focus on
raising up such leaders.”
So, What Are Congregations To Do?
Obviously, the urgency is being felt throughout the United Methodist Church body and our
church is no exception. Our attendance has declined and, without a clear strategy, the
circumstances may become worse sooner rather than later.
Thankfully, congregations are not without options. Two recently published books provide solid
and practical ways church leaders can be more effective at developing and reaching disciples
and growing congregations while reducing complexity and optimizing resources.
Andy Stanley’s book, 7 Practices of Effective Ministry, outlines the strategy churches must
implement to be effective (exactly what the Call To Action Steering Team recommended). The
strategy is in the form of 7 practices. They are:
1. Clarify The Win - Communicating what is really important and what really matters. What is
the goal of the church? If you don’t define what a win looks like to the ministry leaders, they
define it for themselves. When you clarify the win, the team stays on the same page and
those resources are managed more effectively.
2. Think Steps, Not Programs - Determine where you want people to be. Then, figure out how
you’re going to get them there. The result is a ministry that works as a step not as just
another program.
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6. 3. Narrow The Focus - Churches have to do less to grow more. Doing more divides resources
and focus without reaching more people. The value of a program is linked to how well it
helps accomplish the mission.
4. Teach Less For More - Focus on just one truth or principle and you enhance the potential of
every listener to really “get it.”
5. Listen To Outsiders - If you are surrounded long enough by people who think like you think,
you will become more and more certain that’s the best way to think.
6. Replace Yourself - Learning to effectively hand off leadership to the next generation is vital
to the longevity of any organization, especially the church. Leaders must be recruited by
personal invitation not a general announcement.
7. Work On It - Taking time to evaluate and measure performance
The book Simple Church, by Thom Rainer, Ph.D., makes the point that churches that are
vibrant and growing are simple. Significant research was done to arrive at this conclusion and
is described in great detail in the book.
A simple church strategy is effective. Here is the definition:
“A simple church is designed around a straightforward and strategic process that moves people
through the stages of spiritual growth. The leadership and the church are clear about the
process (clarity) and are committed to executing it. The process flows logically (movement)and
is implemented in each area of the church (alignment). The church abandons everything that is
not in the process (focus).”
While many of the same points are shared in 7 Practices of Effective Ministry, Simple
Church boils down these elements into a simple process. The process is:
More clarification is given:
“A simple church is designed around a straightforward and strategic process that moves people
through the stages of spiritual growth. The process is straightforward. It is not confusing. It is
easy to grasp. The leaders know it and the people understand it. The process is kept simple.
Complexity is not welcome. More programs are not added to the process. The process is not
lengthened. It does not change every few months.
The process is the how, which means it is strategic. The process is tied to the purpose or vision
of the church. The process is designed to be sequential so that people move through the
process.
The process flows logically. People are attracted to Christ and the church and then are moved
to points of attachment. The programs are used as tools to promoted this movement.
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Clarity Movement Alignment Focus

7. The process moves people through the stages of spiritual growth.”
What is Clarity?
“Clarity is the ability of the process to be communicated and understood by the people. A
process that has clarity is clearly defined. The leadership and the people know exactly how the
church is structured to move people toward spiritual growth. The process (the how) is
discussed, taught and illustrated. And people get it.”
Everyone in the church must know not only the purpose of spiritual growth and maturity, but
they must also understand the process of how it happens. If it is not clear, then it may not be
successful carried out. Once the process is implemented it much be measured. “Churches that
measure their process prove its value.”
Clarity is the most important step. The process must be understood, communicated effectively
and discussed often. When this happens, it becomes part of the church culture and has a better
chance of success.
What is Movement?
“Movement is the sequential steps in the process that cause people to move to greater areas of
commitment. Movement is what causes a person to go to the next step. It is how someone is
handed off from one level of commitment to a greater level of commitment (e.g. moving from
worship to a small group or from being an observer to being a contributor).”
For growing churches, placement of people into small groups is the first step in the “movement”
step. The small group is a critical step in the path toward spiritual growth and commitment.
A successful small group ministry will have 40-60% of the congregation involved, according to
the book Sticky Church, by Larry Osborne of North Coast Church. Placement in a small group
allows people to connect in significant relationships and the Bible. Sermon-based small groups
have the advantage of engaging the congregation more fully, while keeping the entire church
focused and on the same page.
There are other advantages as well, noted in the book. Spiritual newcomers who lack a biblical
background are less intimidated in a friendly, small group situation. Also, leading a small group
is a good stepping stone for developing leaders. Leading a sermon-based small group only
requires facilitation, not a good deal of biblical knowledge usually required in leading a bible
study. Finally, small groups benefit the children. Giving mom and dad a group in which to grow
develops children that mimic that into adulthood.
The next steps, following the small group, is the “movement” into leadership (such as leading a
small group) and serving (volunteering in ministry). If people don’t experience movement
through these stages they become stagnant in their faith development and, without growth,
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8. many leave. To quote Thom Rainer, the author of Simple Church, “People stick to a church
when they get involved in a small group.”
What is Alignment?
“Alignment is the arrangement of all ministries and staff around the same simple process. This
ensures the entire church is moving in the same direction and in the same manner. All
ministries operate from the same blueprint and each department mirrors the process in that
particular area. Without alignment, the church can be a multitude of sub-ministries with leaders
committed to their own philosophy of ministry and more like a building that houses a wide
variety of ministries.”
Alignment means fully integrating the process in every ministry and department of the church.
This prevents the church from going in multiple directions chasing different agendas. When all
groups align, everyone in the church is experiencing the same process. This creates synergy
and unifies all areas of the church.
What is Focus?
“Focus is the commitment to abandon everything that falls outside of the simple ministry
process. Focus requires saying “yes” to the best and “no” to everything else. Without focus, the
church becomes cluttered despite its process. Simple churches abandon all that is outside of
the simple process because it threatens to steal attention and energy from what has been
determined as necessary. A lack of focus leads to scattering. Simple church leaders ask the
difficult questions. They want to be sure something will fit in the process. Focus does not make
church leaders popular.” However, it does make them more effective.
The research conducted and presented in Simple Church concluded that “vibrant and growing
churches are much more focused than comparison (non-growing) churches.”
Breaking the process into steps looks like this:
Step 1: Design a Simple Process (Clarity)
Step 2: Place Your Key Programs Along the Process (Movement)
Step 3: Unite All Ministries Around the Process (Alignment)
Step 4: Begin to Eliminate Things Outside the Process (Focus)
The Cost of Not Being Simple
It may be obvious why being a simple church increases the effectiveness and growth of a
church, but a few examples might help.
1. Often church events compete with each other. Promoting multiple events occupies a lot of
time and energy reducing the effectiveness of the staff.
2. Events, activities and programs outside the process cause people to move in multiple
directions so no one moves to a greater level of commitment.
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9. 3. Multiple events compete for the time of the same people. Families only have a certain
amount of time, so registrations are low and the essential programs that are designed to
move them along the process are missed. The result is fewer people are reached.
If a church is complex, it is not being a wise steward of time or money by diluting resources and
funding programs that do not enhance the process. Instead of spending money and resources
on programs outside the process, simple churches invest them on programs within the ministry
process.
The book, Sticky Church, points out that churches can only get so many people in the front
door because of budget constraints and limited resources. If the back door is still large
(meaning people are leaving the church), the church will not grow. In effect, the church is a
revolving door. Lots of time, energy and resources are being spent to get people in the front
door, but there is still a large number of people leaving out the back. The church has to create
an effective plan to close the back door.
Here is an illustration of 2 churches over the same period of time, both the same size, budget
and resources:
Church A is a revolving door:
• Loses 7 people for every 10 it adds
• To reach 500, it has to add 834 new attendees
Church B is a sticky church:
• It loses only 3 people for every 10 it adds
• To reach 500, it has to add 357 new attendees
The goal is to grow the church and create more disciples for the transformation of the
world. There may be several ways to reach that goal, but doing so effectively with a clear,
strategic plan is being a wise steward of time, money and resources.
Simple, Not Easy
If this process sounds easy, it is not. Hard work is required to clarify the goal of the church and
make it easy for everyone to understand. Dedication is necessary to stay the course.
Leadership is imperative to stay focused in the midst of difficult decisions.
So, what course should we choose? Worship attendance has been on the decline, along with
Sunday School. If we continue on the same trajectory, the future is not promising.
It is imperative that we move toward a strategic process to remain viable. Not a simple bandaid,
not another program, but a strategic plan. The evidence is clear, as described in 7 Practices,
Simple Church and Sticky Church. The data and best practices, from growing churches,
noted above, supports it.
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10. A simple process, with a clear vision that seeks measured results, has the potential to steer
churches toward growth and vitality. It’s an effective, strategic approach with a clear path for
disciples to grow and serve. It’s an investment in the future.
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