Re-learning from the Dutch Coffeeshop Experience

1. Re-Learning from the
Dutch Coffeeshop
Experience
Rob MacCoun
Stanford Law School

2. 2011
US-style
prohibition
Dutch-style
de facto
legalization

3. 2011 2016
Stanford University
US-style
prohibition
Dutch-style de
facto legalization:
• Sword of Damocles
• Artificially high
prices
• THC limits
US-style
legalization:
• aggressive
marketing
• minimal
price
controls?

4. Change Had No Effect on Prevalence
During First Decade...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96
Percent
ever used
Policy
Change
18 yr olds
MacCoun & Reuter (1997, Science)

5. …But Use Increased Sharply in
Second Decade
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96
Percent
ever used
Increase was steeper than
seen elsewhere in Europe
MacCoun & Reuter (1997, Science)

6. Why?
Commercialization
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Coffee
shops
in
Amsterdam
1980 1985 1988

7. But Dutch less likely to move on
to hard drugs
MacCoun (Addiction, 2011)

8. Availability and youth use

9. Escalation
to regular
use

10. Treatment
rates
(vs. US)

11. Treatment rates (vs.
Europe)

12. Key caveat:
Dutch prices stayed high
 MacCoun (2011): two different estimates
 First showed 2005 prices per gram comparable for Dutch
Nederwiet and US marijuana herb
 But Dutch cheaper on purity-adjusted basis
 Second showed US prices actually lower
 But roughly comparable on a purity-adjusted basis
 “…prices in the Netherlands are elevated by their
unusual hybrid regime which approximates legalization
at the user level, but European style prohibition at the
level of the growers and traffickers…”

13. Marcel de Kort
 To understand Dutch policy, need to understand
the heroin threat in the 1970s
 H. Cohen’s sociological interpretation of the “gateway
theory”: Separate the markets to prevent contact with hard-
drug dealers

14. Franz Trautmann
 Policy window that opened (in 1970s) and has
closed (past decade)
 Unintended conseqs include growth of street dealing
 Production shifting to Belgium?
 Move toward rationalizing the “back door problem”
through overt regulation

15. Tom Blickman
 Contrary to “laissez-faire” image, Dutch have
actively struggled to regulate the coffeeshops
 Tightening rules
 Closing shops
 “weed pass”
 THC limits
 Regulating supply?

16. Tom Blickman

17. Dutch no longer
have highest rate

18. Niesink et al (2015) THC potency

19. 2011 2016
Stanford University
US-style
prohibition
Dutch-style de
facto legalization:
• Sword of Damocles
• Artificially high
prices
• THC limits
US-style
legalization:
• aggressive
marketing
• minimal
price
controls?

20. Two images
Sword of Damocles Regulatory Capture

21. How will Dutch respond to
the end of US bullying?