Presentation by Hasan Ikhrata of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) on transportation policy at the California Asphalt Pavement Association Spring Conference April 25, 2013 in Ontario, CA.
6. [21,690] miles of highways and arterials
[470] miles of passenger rail
[6] air carrier airports
[446 million] miles driven each day
[81 million] air passengers each year
[45%] more urban rail riders between 2000 and 2006
[34%] of our jobs depend on the goods movement industry
State and federal gas taxes have not changed in nearly [20] years
Yet, highway construction costs have grown by [82%]
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SCAG Region
7. Regional Transportation Plan:
3 Overarching Strategies
allocate
ONLY13%
capital investment
to highways
focus over
50%
growth within
3%
land area
FROM7:3
single- vs. multi-
family units
TO3:7
7
15. New Revenue Sources and Innovative
Financing Strategies
15
• Local Sales Tax Measures & Bonding
• Gas Tax Adjustment
• Mileage-based User Fee
• Highway Tolls
• Private Equity Participation
• Freight Fee Program
• E-commerce Tax
• Interest From Toll Bonds
• Value-capture Strategies
16. New for 2012 RTP:
Sustainable Communities Strategy
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• New state laws to control Greenhouse
Gas Emissions (First-in-the-Nation)
• S.B. 375 requires RTP to attain GHG
emissions targets for cars and light
trucks
• SCS component of RTP outlines
integrated land use and transportation
strategies to meet targets
• Community livability, sustainability,
prosperity “co-benefits” – Not just
GHG reduction!
17. A Game Changer for Southern California?
• Certified by federal agencies
for conformity
• SCS target affirmed by ARB
• Praised in Wall Street
Journal, LA Times,
Huffington Post, and more
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18. •Cities and counties
•County Transportation Commissions
•Respective state agencies
•Business community
•Development Community
•Affordable housing advocates
•Air quality
•Public health advocates
Key Support for the RTP/SCS
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19. What I’ll Cover
1. RTP/SCS review
2. Implications and Opportunities
for the Asphalt Paving Industry
The World is Changing! Can we keep up?
19
20. Advancing Jobs in Our Region
Construction
Network Benefits
Commuting
Accessibility
Transportation
174,500
Annual Jobs
354,000
Annual Jobs
20
25. Growing Age Groups Drive Less
5.5
6.4
10.6
11.8
2.0
4.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Population (millions)
Historic and Projected Population By Age Group
0-20
21-64
65+
20102035
30%
29%
59%
53%
11%
18%
Source: US Census Bureau, SCAG
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26. Emerging Opportunities for the
Paving Industry
26
System Preservation:
Operations and Maintenance
RTP allocation of O&M Expenditures
27. Emerging Opportunities for the
Paving Industry
27
Active Transportation:
Bicycle/Pedestrian Facilities
$6.7 billion in 2012 RTP/SCS
Key venue for new paving
technologies
28. Emerging Opportunities for the
Paving Industry
28
New Technologies:
Emphasis on Sustainability
Colored, porous, recycled
“green” materials
Add value, provide a service,
not a commodity.
29. Planning, Funding & Future Trends
A Regional Perspective
Hasan Ikhrata
Executive Director
For
California Asphalt Paving
Association
29
Hinweis der Redaktion
6 counties, 19 million people, etc.
We are growingDemand for mobility and accessibility is growing
Not all roads are asphalt thoughOver 3.5 billion square feet paved (not including local roads and parking lots)
Notice the 13% on the left – New highways are no longer the priority in Southern California transportation planning.
The current trend is definitely moving toward more transit investment and less new road construction.But who knew that would happen? Less than 25 years ago there was no passenger rail in the region.90 years ago we had a huge transit network.What is the next trend? Nobody really knows what the future will bring and what the implications will be for the asphalt paving industry.
The current trend is definitely moving toward more transit investment and less new road construction.But who knew that would happen? Less than 25 years ago there was no passenger rail in the region.90 years ago we had a huge transit network.What is the next trend? Nobody really knows what the future will bring and what the implications will be for the asphalt paving industry.
The current trend is definitely moving toward more transit investment and less new road construction.But who knew that would happen? Less than 25 years ago there was no passenger rail in the region.90 years ago we had a huge transit network.What is the next trend? Nobody really knows what the future will bring and what the implications will be for the asphalt paving industry.
The current trend is definitely moving toward more transit investment and less new road construction.But who knew that would happen? Less than 25 years ago there was no passenger rail in the region.90 years ago we had a huge transit network.What is the next trend? Nobody really knows what the future will bring and what the implications will be for the asphalt paving industry.
Capital construction still largest share of expenditures – 50%BUT majority of that is Transit. Highway construction is only 13% of this pie.
How do we pay for it?Gas tax is not what it used to be.Despite population and overall VMT still climbing = increased demand for O&M
Note large (and growing) local share. Can’t rely on Feds and state anymore.
These are the “Additional” revenue sources represented on the previous slide.
Possible Implications for asphalt industry – new land use developmentmore concentrated in corridors, less dispersedThese “re-development” “infill” areas are mostly already paved but will need new paving to support new development.Many cities and developers will be looking for new technologies – green and sustainable surfaces.
Completing the transportation projects in the RTP will create a significant economic stimulus for the region. A large portion of the 174,500 construction jobs will be in the asphalt paving industry!
There are still major projects coming;
There are still major projects coming;
Remember one of the 3 Over-arching strategies of the RTP
The future trends are clear, per capita VMT peaked in 2005, before the recession. Although it ticked up slightly last year there is clear evidence that the demand for new “raw” lane miles has peaked.
Deferring the maintenance of our transportation system will only result in much costlier repairs in the future, preserving our assets now is a critical priority of this RTP/SCS. Approximately $217 billion, or almost half of all of its proposed expenditures through 2035, is allocated to system preservation and maintenance. This large investment is a result of three decades of preservation underinvestment. Deficient road conditions are all too familiar to the region’s drivers, and without a renewed commitment to, costs will increase even more dramatically.
Also includes Road diets, “complete streets,” etc.
You are the experts on Asphalt technologies…The future of the asphalt industry, like other industries, may be lower quantities and higher engineering and quality. Planners and officials are hearing about Green Pavement, but they may not fully understand what that means. Low carbon content, pervious surfaces,locally sourced aggregate, etc.Suppliers need to view themselves as service providers, not material providers.