Modernisation et croissance de la Russie: l'enjeu de la reconversion des monovilles

Restructuring monocities as a lever of
paradigm shift towards iconomics for
Russian economy
Claude Rochet
Professeur des universités
LAREQUOI Université de Versailles Saint Quentin-en-Yvelines
Claude.rochet@univ-amu.fr
17/09/2016
Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
1

Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What the smart cities from the past can teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city
Methodology and examples (good and bad)
Proposal of a road map for Russia
17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
2

Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
17/09/2016
3

Top down mono functional city
Togliatti (Russia):
Monocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth
in Russia, representing up to 31% GDP.
4

Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities
17/09/2016
Decreasing returns due to specialization in
primary activities and localization in remote
places
• 335 mono villes (31% des villes)
• 16 Mons hab. (25% pop. Urbaine)
• Taux urbanisation: 75%

What a smart city can’t be
 A collection of « smarties »
 A techno centric city
 A city without past
 = EU ideology!
 A deterministic system
17/09/2016
Smart city = Integrated complex
system
6

Summary
Physics of city
7

Cities scaling laws
Densité
Potentiel
d’interconnexions
Y=x2 Loi de Metcalfe
But…..
Distance
Interconnexionsréelles
Lois de Von Thünen Tobler
Externalités+et_
Taille
But…..
Taille
Nombredevilles
Lois de Marshall West Bettencourt
Lois de Zipf
8

Combining these laws:
17/09/2016
Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 Size x Number of cities
Connectionsxwealth
New town
Clustering medium size
cities
New town
Defining the perimeter and
the
« in and out »
interrelations of the
system is a key issue in
cities’system design
9

Good and bad complexity
At a certain point growing
complexity produces more
negative than positive
externalities and become
unmonitorable
Bad complexity
Good complexity
Growing size
Growingcomplexity
E. g. Detroit, Russian monocities…
10

A (really) smart city is an
emerging ecosystem
 Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects
whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.
 The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to
another can be described.
 Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions change: the city
can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991)
 Modeling emergence implies:
1. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can take.
2. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context.
11

A smart city is an integration of two kinds of
systems
17/09/2016
Hard systems may
be modeled thanks
to the laws of
physics
(conservative
systems)
Soft systems can’t
be modeled with
the laws of physics
(dissipative
systems)
- Social sciences
- Big data
- Autopoeisis
- Multi-agents
modeling
The key of the
success is here…
… while business
is there
Politics must prevail
on a bottom up basis
12

Summary
Physics of city
What does the smart cities from the past teach
us?
13

Middle age cities were smart: organic development, common
good, synergies between economic activities
Common good
Vivere politico
Economic welfare
Pivate good
14

Direct democracy was at the root of the
city life and its organic evolution
15
Novogorod veche
Новгоро́дская
респу́блика вече

Middle Age cities grew on an organic
planning basis
« Organic planning does not begin with a
preconceived goal; it moves from need to need,
from opportunity to opportunity, in a series of
adaptations that themselves become
increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that
they generate a complex final design, hardly
less unified than a pre-formed geometric
pattern. »
16

Summary
Physics of city
What does the smart cities from the past teach us?
Towards an organic and sustainable innovating
city
17

Urban dynamics: from neo
cybernetics to autopeosis
First order cybernetics (Forrester):
The city as a self regulating system…
... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio)
The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis
of human dissipative systems
The complexity of the city is a combination of several
laws
There is a positive correlation between growth of the
city size and its complexity....
... But there is a good and a bad complexity
17/09/2016
18

A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self
regulate
19

First order cybernetics city
The myth of
the super mind
and perfect
control
IBM at Rio do
Janeiro
20

Autopoeisis: Why and How?
An autopoeitic system is “”a network of processes of
production (transformation and destruction) of components
which: (i) through their interactions and transformations
continuously regenerate and realize the network of
processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a
concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist
by specifying the topological domain of its realization as
such a network.” H. Maturana
Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system:
strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce
itself permanently thanks to its internal interactions
17/09/2016
21

Autopoeisis: Why and How?
Autopoeisis makes the system able to face with the
rapid changing of the environment:
“This generalized view of autopoiesis considers
systems as self-producing not in terms of their
physical components, but in terms of its
organization, which can be measured in terms of
information and complexity. In other words, we
can describe autopoietic systems as those
producing more of their own complexity than
the one produced by their environment".
C. Gershenson
22

Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on
“ordinary actions of the people”
NO! An evolutionary
process
Integration process is
bottom-up…
… based on ordinary
interactions
 We must understand
how ordinary people
behave
 Q: Is there an
architect with a
master plan?
23

Summary
Physics of city
24

Strategic Analysis
26/01/2016
25
Why building a city & what are
the strategic goals? Who are
the stakeholders?
What are the generic
functions to be performed by
a smart city?
With which organs?
Technical devices,
software…
With which smart
people?
Conception,
metamodel
framework,
steering
Subsystems
and
processes
People
and tools
Why designing this ecosystem?
Who will live in the city?
What are its activities?
How the city will be fed?
Where the city is located ? (context)
What are the functions to be performed to
reach the goals and how do they interact?
With which organs
and ressources?
How people will interact with the
artifacts?
How civic life will organize?

Why do we need strong citizen based
interactions within a system? (1)
 Economy:
 An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities is the
condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a
political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)
 FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the lack
of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…)
productive governance often enforces the development sustainable
productive structures based usually on a participatory system.
 “State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by
failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)
 “The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared
economic growth with special focus on health, education and
communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence
between countries narrow down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009)
17/09/2016
26

Resilience:
A smart city is a highly internally connected facing with a
turbulent environment, that challenges its resilience.
Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic properties of
the system, and consequently its resilience.
E.g. Christchurch (NZ)
26/01/2016
27
27

Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which
consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone)
The frontier between production and consumption is
blurred more than in other cases of information economy
(McLuhan)
In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of
the innovation process (Von Hippel).
The power of these technical systems requires strong
political control to be both fully efficient and not
becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon).
17/09/2016
28

Direct democracy has a strong record in the
management of cities and complex systems
 Schumpeterian economics correlates
synergies between activities, political
freedom and common weal.
 Traditional decision making system may
help modeling a resilient human system
e.g: ongoing research project of
modeling an eco-efficient drinking water
network in Angola with the palaver tree
29

The false green cities
26/01/2016
30
Integrating imported
pollution, energy waste….
produced by a dysfunctional
ecosystem
Is the city really green?
The worst case: Paris socio-
ethnic greenwashing

The perfectly integrated smart city:
Singapore
31

Singapore vs. Norilsk
32
Common features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no
reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets,
no industry, no initial social capital…
Depressing monoindustry A city thought from the beginning as a smart nation

New paradigms in public decision making
 Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large
scale
 Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision
process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state
 Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The
Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and
System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)
 « In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems.
The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the
direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one
that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an
evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A
new Science of Cities » 2015
17/09/2016
33

A paradoxical research question:
Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should
not need a government?
 At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is Singapore,
it’s not really a democracy.
 At date, we don’t know large system that have developped
spontaneously self organizing properties .
 Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long
term learning process: Cf. biomimicry
 A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good institution
from the top down giving the citizens the rights to challenge the
power of the few in charge.
 We have a lot of reference of direct democracy experiences, how
they were born, how they died.
34

Summary
Physics of city
35

Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy
9/17/2016
36
Training of actors,
Knowledge transfer
to SME
Smart Cities Pilot
Projects
Social capabilities
improvement
System modeling
and integration
capacities
Investments and
reference
realizations
Territories
development
Technology
transfer
Absorptive
capacities
Organic
development
R&D
Actions Realizations Strategic assets
Autopoeisis

Merci!
26/01/2016 37
37
Thank you!
Спасибо

Modernisation et croissance de la Russie: l'enjeu de la reconversion des monovilles

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