International conférence on sargassum Thursday, October 24th, 2019 Day 1 - State of knowledge on Sargassum algae Satellite remote sensing and estimation of the caribbean sea's sargassum surface area ---- Conférence Internationale sur les Sargasses Jeudi 24 octobre - Journée 1 État des lieux sur la connaissance des algues sargasses Table-ronde 2 Télédétection satellitaire, estimation de la surface en sargasses de la mer des Caraïbes, et retours d’expéditions

1. Communicating
Sargassum
Forecasts
Shelly-Ann Cox1, Hazel A. Oxenford1, Patrick McConney1
Don R. Johnson and Jim S. Franks
Professor of Marine Ecology and Fisheries
1CERMES, University of the West Indies, Cave Hill, Barbados
2GCRL, University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs, USA
24/10/2019

2. Sargassum influxes
The development and
communication of reliable
medium-term forecasts of
significant sargassum influx arrivals
is critical!
• Arrival of influxes extremely variable
• Complicates development of viable uses
• Makes planning very difficult
• Very disruptive to tourism, fisheries and
health sectors

3. What’s available?
Sargassum prediction products:
– SaWS Outlook Bulletin from USF (3-months)
– NOAA Sargassum Inundation Report (weekly)
– SEAS program from TAMUG (8-days)
– Other experimental products under
development (e.g. CLS )
Current Constraints
• Products not widely known
• Difficult to interpret for non-scientists
• Predictions based on visual best-guess
with some use of currents and wind

4. Sub-Regional Outlook Bulletin
Design Criteria
 Target audiences: Tourism businesses
policy makers, fisheries managers,
fisherfolk
 Easily accessible
 Simplify scientific jargon so that
stakeholders can understand
 Sargassum abundance intensity-level
 3-month outlook
 Implications to sectors
 Links to useful resources

5. Sub-Regional Outlook Bulletin
Zero draft tested
 At FAO-UWI Sargassum Symposium 2018,
at GCFI 2018, and local fishers
 Feedback was very positive
 Reiteratied need to keep language simple
 Preferred delivery as ‘active’ pdf by email
 Want further development of embedded
interactive media
 Want a chance to contribute through
Citizen science reporting

6. Screen shots of trial 1st issue

7. Screen shots of trial 1st issue
https://optics.marine.usf.edu/subscription/modis/C_ATLANTIC/2019/comp/2
72/C20192662019272.1KM.C_ATLANTIC.7DAY.L3D.FA_DENSITY.png
• 7-day composite
image from USF
• Annotated for
easier
interpretation
• Use as the base
image for our 3-
month outlook
predictions
• Embedded link to
source image

8. Screen shots of trial 1st issue

9. Screen shots of trial issue
• Current status
‘intensity gauge’ is
qualitative
• Based on visual
interpretation and
past experience
• Quantitative gauge
under development
Sargassum intensity gauge
• The Eastern Caribbean islands
have seen moderate levels of sargassum
throughout the summer of 2019.
• The level has now decreased considerably.
• Currently there is very little sargassum
visible out in the Atlantic.

10. Screen shots of trial 1st issue

11. Outlook
(3-months)
• Quantitative
• Based on 10-yr
climatology of
current models
• Gives
comparison with
last year
• Short narrative
for each island
group

12. Outlook
(3-months) 0
2
4
6
.
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
Sargassuma
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
.
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
Sargassumabundance
Middle
2018
2019
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
.
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
Sargassumabundance
South
2018
2019
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
Forward tracking

13. Screen shots of trial 1st issue

14. Screen shots of trial 1st issue
Page 2 –top

15. Embedded links
GCFI Good Practices Poster
CC4FISH
Fishers’ Guide

16. Screen shots of trial 1st issue
Page 2
bottom

17. Next steps
Design
• Continue to engage stakeholders in
the co-development process
• Revise based on feedback
Develop
• Continue to improve prediction model
• Secure sustainable production
mechanism
Distribute
• Build a mailing list for distribution
• Trial issue release this week!
• Publish quarterly or monthly?

18. Questions?
Sign up for the Eastern Caribbean Outlook Bulletin:
sargassumoutlookbulletin@gmail.com