As one of the most populated tropical forest countries in the world, Indonesia faces huge challenges in balancing development, livelihood improvement of its citizens and conservation of its natural assets. Many stakeholders are not involved in the process. An important step to improve the current situation is to facilitate a more collaborative land use planning and allocation process that benefits all parties.
Through a series of multiple stakeholder workshops over a two-year period, PPA allowed diverse actors and interests to jointly predict and anticipate trajectories of land use change.
CIFOR Scientist Bayuni Shantiko with Nining Liswanti presented on 8 June 2013 for the panel discussion "Spatial planning in Indonesia: Insights from research and action in West Kalimantan and Moluccas Provinces" at the 2013 IASC conference held on Mount Fuji in Japan.
social pharmacy d-pharm 1st year by Pragati K. Mahajan
Scenarios building in complex commons
1. Scenarios building in complex
commons:Challenges, opportunities and lessons learned in engaging multiple stakeholders to
improve land use decisions
Bayuni Shantiko & Nining Liswanti
2. Background
Multiple layers of governance and
stakeholders
High uncertainty for the future in
complex common in developing
tropical countries
The public and decision makers need
to be better informed on what could
happen in the future
4. Participatory prospective
analysis
An applied foresighting
approach developed by CIRAD
PPA group “experts”: district
government, local community,
customary leaders, private
sector, NGOs
Develop action plan to be
integrated with regency
planning
5. STAKEHOLDERS
Local government agencies
and parliament
National Park
Private sectors
Communities
Customary leaders
Universities and NGO
15 – 20 stakeholders
7. System Boundary
Q: What could be the
future of land use?
Time: 20 years
Geographic boundary:
Kapuas Hulu regency
Central Seram
regency
Define the
boundary of the
system (Topic)
Identify the variables
Define the variables
Analyze their mutual
influences
9. 4. Analysis mutual influence
Direct influence variable i to variable j ;
Direct influence = 1; No influence = 0
Indirect influence (i k) :
i j k
14. From Scenario to Action
vs
STEPS IN HARMONY PANNING THE GOLD GETTING THE STONE
Policies that favor and compiled together with
the community, enhance public participation in
the planning process to monitoring and
supervision
Access to education and skills are
improved
PEOPLE MASTER APPROPRIATE AND
ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY
TECHNOLOGY.
Synergy between customary law and
positive law supports the course of
development
EDUCATION IS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR ALL
THE PEOPLE
Indigenous peoples have split as a result of
the weakening of customary law and
indigenous knowledge
the stakeholders seek to win personal and
group interests over the land use
Conflicts in society escalate triggered by the
exclusion of the society in the development
process
15. Challenge
Who pays the cost of
participation once ongoing donor
assistance is over, especially for
future monitoring of the
implementation?
How to institutionalize the
process into current government
system?
Idealistic vs. realistic scenarios?
16. Conclusion
The PPA process proved successful in bringing together different
stakeholders to view their environment from a very different
perspective.
Using PPA and its scenario development, different stakeholders
started realizing the need of working together, to collaborate for
further action to make change affecting their future
Focus on PPA, short introTrend influence land use such as population growth, urbanization, trade (e.g. biofuel investment), globalization uncertainty of futureGovernance-Overlapping authorities (central vs. district; among sectors), ambiguous regulations/policiesDecision- Top down planning in spatial planning, only few agencies involved Conflicts over land use: official forestland status vs customary tenure; commoners vs investors; conservationvs developmentStakeholders – central, provincial, district level ; even at village levelPPA as a tool to make change happenLand use in complex common: uncertainty of the futureMultiple layers of governance and decisions in land use as well as involved many stakeholdersThe public and decision makers need to be informed on what could happen in the future to bring about a change
Criteria: Expert on aspects relevant to PPA topic, open-minded and willing to share and listen to others
Layout: Section HeaderVariation: none
Scenario is a combination of variables in different states. States of variable must contrast and mutually exclusiveIncompatible combination were eliminated resulting several possible scenarios. Scenario’ with similar elements can be merged. Similar scenarios can be clustered through an identical process as used for the identification of variables: elimination of redundant scenarios andgrouping of scenarios.Scenario must contrast and mutually exclusive
Having alternative of futures at hand, stakeholderswereasked to agree on which scenario ispreferable and wish to achieveit. Then action plan wasdeveloped by stakeholdersduring consultation forum at village and district levelDesirableGovernment, communities and other SHs work togetherAligned vision and policies to achieve ‘society’s welfare’Stakeholders change their current behaviourUndesirableSc. 2 environmental destructionScenario 3&4 recklessness in investment decision: no benefit to community
(musrembang+)Actions taken depends on top decision makers commitmentRepeated interactions (workshops and consultations) time considerationWho pays the cost of participation? Bottom-up and participatory process do not institutionalized in top down system How to institutionalize the process into current government system so government subsidized the process?Repeated interactions (workshops and consultations) time considerationBottom-up and participatory process do not institutionalized in top down system How so government subsidized the process?formulate and later monitor land use plan based on desirable “idealistic” scenarios – (YL not necessarily making the plan but realistic and achievable scenario. It is not a matter of formulating the plan “avoid too much idealistic scenario and if they happen how to deal with it”? The PPA process may result in scenarios that are too ideal to be implemented and how to deal with it?
1. It gives the opportunity to understand it better, to get more insight about the forces at work and the stakes. 2. PPA for tourism agency and PPA for district regulationIn central seram, PPA will be included inThe type of prospective analysis proposed in the PPA method goes beyondthe elaboration of scenarios. It is a full process where expert participants who are at the same timestakeholders are led to view their environment from a very different perspective. It gives them theopportunity to understand it better, to get more insight about the forces at work and the stakes. Theybecome aware that there is always room for manoeuvre not only to prepare for future changes, butalso to have a say in these changes even on a limited scale. As such, it is a tool for peopleempowerment through the generation and sharing of information, and through the sharing of ideasand knowledge.Note YL: show the interest of PPA and scenario using this prosess, express why this way is better than the otherThe use of PPA tools for different purposes, e.g. community empowerment program, regional planning program, etc. Participatory process allow stakeholders from different background to discuss and negotiate for the future use of the common. The way scenario are made using PPA bring “a notion that participatory process is not only about getting the stakeholders together but also to make change. Qualitative analysis